Esse trabalho apresenta um estudo da causalidade de Granger em Risco bivariado aplicado a séries temporais financeiras. Os eventos de risco, no caso de séries financeiras, estão relacionados com a avaliação do Valor em Risco das posições em ativos. Para isso, os modelos CaViaR, que fazem parte do grupo de modelos de Regressão Quantílica, foram utilizado para identificação desses eventos. Foram expostos os conceitos principais envolvidos da modelagem, assim como as definições necessárias para entendê-las. Através da análise da causalide de Granger em risco entre duas séries, podemos investigar se uma delas é capaz de prever a ocorrência de um valor extremo da outra. Foi realizada a análise de causalidade de Granger usual somente para como comparativo. / Quantile Regression, Value at Risk, CAViaR Model, Granger Causality, Granger Causality in Risk

由於近年來店頭市場的發展迅速，規模不斷擴大，資金大量流入，重要性大為增加，加上資訊科技的進步，使資金在各市場間甚至是國際間的流動非常迅速，因此本研究試圖在高頻(high-frequency)的資料型態下，將價量因果關係的概念應用在探討集中市場與店頭市場之間的關係。首先是利用一般的Granger檢定討探其線性因果關係，接著利用Baek and Brock(1992)的非線性檢定模型檢定其是否存在著非線性因果關係。 研究結果顯示，在高頻的資料型態下，台灣股票市場的集中市場與店頭市場其各別市場的價量之間存在有雙向的線性因果關係，而集中市場與店頭市場之間亦存在有雙向的線性因果關係。當然最重要的在非線性因果關係方面，集中市場與店頭市場其各別市場的價量之間，以及集中市場與店頭市場兩市場之間亦存在有雙向的非線性因果關係。

This research study investigated preschoolers' naive theory of the human body in understanding the cause of death. The empirical investigation showed that urban and suburban preschoolers (ages 5 and 6) have an understanding of a naive theory of the human body and that some do make reference to a 'vitalistic causality' in explaining organ function. Furthermore, most of the participants gave an external explanation for the cause of death (e.g. gunshots, poison, sticks), but those participants who gave an internal (biological) explanation for the cause of death were well-informed about the biological teleology of body organs. These findings conclude that education, socio-economic factors and culture influence the acquisition of a naive theory of biology. The need for guidance to educators, in explaining the concept of death to preschoolers, was further emphasised. / Educational Studies / M.Ed. (Psychology of Education)

Esse trabalho apresenta um estudo da causalidade de Granger em Risco bivariado aplicado a séries temporais financeiras. Os eventos de risco, no caso de séries financeiras, estão relacionados com a avaliação do Valor em Risco das posições em ativos. Para isso, os modelos CaViaR, que fazem parte do grupo de modelos de Regressão Quantílica, foram utilizado para identificação desses eventos. Foram expostos os conceitos principais envolvidos da modelagem, assim como as definições necessárias para entendê-las. Através da análise da causalide de Granger em risco entre duas séries, podemos investigar se uma delas é capaz de prever a ocorrência de um valor extremo da outra. Foi realizada a análise de causalidade de Granger usual somente para como comparativo. / Quantile Regression, Value at Risk, CAViaR Model, Granger Causality, Granger Causality in Risk

The study investigates the linkages between government policies and the real estate sector via a case study that was carried out on the Japanese market. The applicability of the results were then discussed in terms of whether similar trends could be seen in other economies facing similar demographic and economic issues as Japan. While the real estate sector linkages with the overall economy are relatively well studied topic, there are less studies regarding the links between government policies and the real estate market. The studies in the field furthermore in general conclude that the results are country and location dependent, thus illustrating there to be a research gap. Given that real estate sector is linked with the overall performance of the economy, and fluctuations within the sector can magnify ups and downs of the overall economy, it is of importance to investigate the topic in order to, for example, illustrate the effect that policy changes will have on the real estate sector and thus potentially also on the overall market. The approach of the study was to carry out quantitative analysis through the use of econometric analysis methods such as cointegration and Granger causality. The robustness of the econometric analysis results were then further discussed through the use of qualitative analysis tool of expert interviews. The applicability of the econometric results to other economies was analyzed with simple comparison of key variables. The results of the study indicate that government policies have very little effect on the real estate sector. The econometric analysis suggests that neither monetary nor fiscal policy had notable effect on the real estate sector, especially price development. On the other hand, interest rates were seen as a most notable government policy tool to have an effect on the real estate sector in the expert interviews. As a conclusion, it was argued that the low level of cointegrations and lack of causalities could be due to government policies having an indirect effect on the real estate market via altering the demand and supply for real estate rather than leading to changes within the sector directly. For the comparison, some of the Nordic countries and Germany were noted to be facing similar issues as Japan in terms of ageing population, urbanization trend, notable government debt levels, and low interest rates. It was however noted, that the econometric analysis results could not be mirrored to these markets directly due to the rather straightforward comparison, but rather the results could act as a guideline. / Den här studien utreder kopplingarna mellan regeringspolitiken och fastighetssektorn genom en fallstudie som utfördes på den japanska marknaden. Tillämpligheten av studiens resultat diskuterades sedan kring huruvida liknande trender kan utläsas i andra ekonomier som står inför liknande demografiska och ekonomiska problem som Japan gör.  Hur fastighetssektorn är kopplad till den generella ekonomin är ett relativt välstuderat ämne, de finns däremot färre studier som avhandlar kopplingar mellan regeringspolitik och fastighetsmarknadens utveckling. Studierna inom ämnet sammanfattar generellt att studiens resultat är beroende av landet och den specifika platsen, vilket visar att det finns en lucka i forskningen. Med tanke på att fastighetsmarknaden är kopplad till den generella ekonomins utveckling, samt att fluktuationer inom sektorn kan förstora upp- och nedgångar i den övergripande ekonomin, är det väsentligt att undersöka ämnet för att, exempelvis, illustrera den effekt politiska ändringar har på fastighetssektorn och därmed potentiellt den övergripande marknaden.  Studiens tillvägagångsätt var att genomföra en kvantitativ analys genom användning av ekonometriska analysverktyg, såsom samverkan och Granger kausalitet. De ekonometriska analysresultatens robusthet diskuterades därefter ytterligare genom kvalitativ analys i form av intervjuer med experter inom ämnet. De ekonometriska resultatens, till andra ekonomiers, användbarhet analyserades med en enkel jämförelse av nyckelvariabler.  Resultatet av studien indikerar att regeringspolitik har en mycket liten effekt på fastighetssektorn. Den ekonometriska analysen tyder vidare på att varken penning- eller finanspolitik har en märkbar effekt på fastighetssektorn, i synnerhet på prisutvecklingen. Motsatt till detta framgick det i intervjuerna med experter inom ämnet, att räntorna är det verktyg som används inom regeringspolitiken som har störst effekt på fastighetssektorn. Som slutsats hävdades det att den låga graden samverkan och bristen på kausalitet kan bero på att regeringspolitik har en indirekt effekt på fastighetssektorn då utbudet och efterfrågan ändras snarare än att det direkt leder till ändringar inom sektorn. Vad gäller tillämpningen av de ekonometriska resultaten noterades det att några av de nordiska länderna samt Tyskland kommer att möta liknande problem som Japan, gällande åldrande befolkning, urbaniseringsutveckling och låga räntor. Det noterades dock att de ekonometriska analysresultaten inte direkt kunde spegla sig i dessa marknader då en relativ enkel jämförelsemetod användes, men att resultaten kan agera som en riktlinje.

South Africa has become more dependent on portfolio inflow to finance investment and consumption due to the low rate of government and household savings. Therefore, it is important from South Africa‟s perspective to maintain a stable portfolio inflow in order to ensure that the current account deficit does not reach unsustainable levels. However, portfolio inflow is anything but stable in South Africa. The risk associated with this is that when foreigners‟ expectations of South Africa shift, due to any form of instability or risk within the country or even internationally, it leads to massive withdrawals or outflow of funds, which in turn causes the currency to depreciate. The portfolio balance theory on the other hand states that an increase in portfolio inflow leads to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, and that this is perceived to work against economic growth. The main objective of this research is to determine the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows, and the extent to which volatility in the exchange rate affect South Africa‟s portfolio inflow. The research uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and quarterly data, ranging from 1995 to 2012 to investigate this relationship. From the VAR models a Granger causality test, as well impulse response functions is used to shed light on the influence of a one-unit shock in both foreign portfolio inflow and exchange rate volatility on the other variables in the model. Exchange rate volatility is measured using both Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) family models and the conventional standard deviation, in order to control for possible biasness caused by the choice of instrument of volatility. The results showed the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa‟s capital markets can be described as country-dependent and time-varying. South Africa‟s portfolio inflow exhibits high volatility and low persistence that are characteristics normally associated with “hot money”, which is largely driven by foreign investors‟ appetite for short-term speculative gains. The study identified the consistent presence of bidirectional causality between the exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa, irrespective of the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The results also revealed that net portfolio flows are associated with exchange rate appreciation and that foreign portfolio inflow react much stronger to changes in exchange rate volatility than vice versa. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

This dissertation focuses on the interdependency between causality, context and history in selected novels by E.L. Doctorow: The Book of Daniel (1971), Ragtime (1974), Loon Lake (1980), World's Fair (1985) and The Waterworks (1995). Doctorow' s fiction is marked by an apparent paradox: while it underscores fictionalization and sometimes distorts late nineteenth and twentieth century American history, it simultaneously purports to be a valid representation of the past. The novelist's implementation of causality which is a significant component of "the power of freedom", constitutes fiction's ability to convey truth without relying on factuality or "the power of the regime". According to Doctorow, the documented fact is already an interpretation which induces the perception that all documentation is subjective. The author composes fictional contexts that disregard the pretence of reliability in non-fictional texts. Doctorow focuses on how contexts are formed: the contexts are usually defined through the experience of characters who have been exposed to an event or events that were generated by motivations, for example, emotions of fear, racism, conviction, desire and greed, i.e., the catalysts that form history. Each of the novels discussed focuses on various aspects of society and the fate of specific individuals. The Book of Daniel proposes that a human being can only survive physically and spiritually by remaining a social entity. Ragtime focuses on the persistent illusion in history that society is fragmented. The various "faces" of society encountered by the main character in Loon Lake, mirror one another and reflect spiritual poverty. Consequently, Loon Lake demonstrates that the search for personal fulfilment does not require a physical journey, but an inner or spiritual exploration. World's Fair postulates that reality is never exclusively defined by either fortune or misfortune alone. The Waterworks offers perhaps one of the most significant evaluations of history as it perceives that the world in which we live is essentially unknown to us. We have neither the practical means to obtain a total perspective of what occurs in society (especially among politicians and the financially powerful) nor do we have sufficient skills to distinguish what the motivations of individuals' actions really entail. / Thesis (M.A.) Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education, 2000.

South Africa has become more dependent on portfolio inflow to finance investment and consumption due to the low rate of government and household savings. Therefore, it is important from South Africa‟s perspective to maintain a stable portfolio inflow in order to ensure that the current account deficit does not reach unsustainable levels. However, portfolio inflow is anything but stable in South Africa. The risk associated with this is that when foreigners‟ expectations of South Africa shift, due to any form of instability or risk within the country or even internationally, it leads to massive withdrawals or outflow of funds, which in turn causes the currency to depreciate. The portfolio balance theory on the other hand states that an increase in portfolio inflow leads to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, and that this is perceived to work against economic growth. The main objective of this research is to determine the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows, and the extent to which volatility in the exchange rate affect South Africa‟s portfolio inflow. The research uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and quarterly data, ranging from 1995 to 2012 to investigate this relationship. From the VAR models a Granger causality test, as well impulse response functions is used to shed light on the influence of a one-unit shock in both foreign portfolio inflow and exchange rate volatility on the other variables in the model. Exchange rate volatility is measured using both Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) family models and the conventional standard deviation, in order to control for possible biasness caused by the choice of instrument of volatility. The results showed the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa‟s capital markets can be described as country-dependent and time-varying. South Africa‟s portfolio inflow exhibits high volatility and low persistence that are characteristics normally associated with “hot money”, which is largely driven by foreign investors‟ appetite for short-term speculative gains. The study identified the consistent presence of bidirectional causality between the exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa, irrespective of the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The results also revealed that net portfolio flows are associated with exchange rate appreciation and that foreign portfolio inflow react much stronger to changes in exchange rate volatility than vice versa. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

This dissertation focuses on the interdependency between causality, context and history in selected novels by E.L. Doctorow: The Book of Daniel (1971), Ragtime (1974), Loon Lake (1980), World's Fair (1985) and The Waterworks (1995). Doctorow' s fiction is marked by an apparent paradox: while it underscores fictionalization and sometimes distorts late nineteenth and twentieth century American history, it simultaneously purports to be a valid representation of the past. The novelist's implementation of causality which is a significant component of "the power of freedom", constitutes fiction's ability to convey truth without relying on factuality or "the power of the regime". According to Doctorow, the documented fact is already an interpretation which induces the perception that all documentation is subjective. The author composes fictional contexts that disregard the pretence of reliability in non-fictional texts. Doctorow focuses on how contexts are formed: the contexts are usually defined through the experience of characters who have been exposed to an event or events that were generated by motivations, for example, emotions of fear, racism, conviction, desire and greed, i.e., the catalysts that form history. Each of the novels discussed focuses on various aspects of society and the fate of specific individuals. The Book of Daniel proposes that a human being can only survive physically and spiritually by remaining a social entity. Ragtime focuses on the persistent illusion in history that society is fragmented. The various "faces" of society encountered by the main character in Loon Lake, mirror one another and reflect spiritual poverty. Consequently, Loon Lake demonstrates that the search for personal fulfilment does not require a physical journey, but an inner or spiritual exploration. World's Fair postulates that reality is never exclusively defined by either fortune or misfortune alone. The Waterworks offers perhaps one of the most significant evaluations of history as it perceives that the world in which we live is essentially unknown to us. We have neither the practical means to obtain a total perspective of what occurs in society (especially among politicians and the financially powerful) nor do we have sufficient skills to distinguish what the motivations of individuals' actions really entail. / Thesis (M.A.) Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education, 2000.

I interpret and defend Kant's criticism of traditional metaphysics and his indirect proof of transcendental idealism in the first Critique's Antinomy of Pure Reason. Throughout my thesis, I focus on the role of the principle "P2" in the Antinomy ("If the conditioned is given, then the whole sum of conditions, and hence the absolutely unconditioned, is given"). I first defend Kant's use of the principle to motivate the proofs of the Thesis and Antithesis arguments in the second antinomy, which concerns composition, and the third antinomy, which concerns causality. I then explain how the role of P2 in the proofs exposes Kant's indirect proof of transcendental idealism to a significant challenge, to which I develop a response. Finally, I pose the question of whether Kant ultimately argues that the unconditioned exists, or whether he argues that it is merely possible that the unconditioned exists. I explore both options and outline avenues for further consideration of this question, which I argue is crucial to understanding Kant's critical project.