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Le résumé en français n'a pas été communiqué par l'auteur. / This dissertation consists of four essays on health and demographic economics. In the first chapter, I explore the implementation of the theory of equality of opportunity (EOp) developed by Roemer (1998) to health in a joint work with Guillem Lopez and Frederic Udina. A common impediment to the achievement of EOp applications with given resources constraints is that it is unlikely that public policies can fully compensate for existing unfair inequalities. This scenario is particularly relevant in the case of health policy, where public spending coexists with a large private spending component. We argue that if social justice is not attainable, social deliberation should not only focus on choosing the circumstances that ought to be compensated but also reflect on which groups suffering unfair inequalities should be prioritized. The second chapter examines the impact of income-related reporting heterogeneity on the measurement of health inequality. While most studies of health inequality rely on self-reported measures of health, recent research has studied the possibility that part of the existing differences in self-reported health could be due to systematic differences in reporting across socioeconomic groups. The concern is that part of the existing inequalities may not be founded on differences in the “true” health status of individuals. In particular, some studies have concluded that reliance on self-reported health might have resulted in an overstatement on the degree of health inequality of some countries. I study the income-related reporting heterogeneity hypothesis in the 2006 wave of the Catalan Survey of Health and I find that the main contributor to health inequality is the disproportionate concentration of the prevalence of reported conditions in lower income groups. The third chapter, joint with Hippolyte d'Albis and Loesse Jacques Esso, studies the trends in mortality convergence across developed countries from 1960 to 2008. While the epidemiological transition has provided a theory behind the expectation of convergence in mortality patterns, our results reject the convergence hypothesis for a sample of industrialized countries. We study the disparities across the mortality distributions of the countries and our sample and find no evidence of convergence towards a common mortality distribution.The fourth and final chapter of this dissertation examines the relationship between unemployment and fertility. I offer a possible explanation for the apparent contradiction between the empirical work that finds a negative relationship between unemployment and fertility and the theoretical work that emphasizes the lower opportunity cost of childbearing while unemployed. I reconcile these perspectives by distinguishing two forms of unemployment. The first form is structural unemployment while the second is cyclical unemployment, a less permanent component of unemployment that is linked to the economic cycle. I study both effects over the life cycle using cohort data on a panel of developed countries. I find that while structural unemployment has an unambiguous negative effect on fertility, reactions to cyclical unemployment depend on the age at which it is experienced.

O risco relativo (RR) e a razão de prevalência (RP) são medidas de associação que visam mensurar a relação de um desfecho binário e variáveis de exposição em estudos com delineamento coorte e transversal, respectivamente. Nos casos em que há variáveis de confusão ou um fator de exposição contínuo, a associação pode ser estimada através de métodos específicos, tais como regressão de Poisson, regressão log-binomial, análise estratificada e conversão de Zhang e Yu. A regressão logística tem sido extensivamente usada para estimar a razão de chances (RC), a qual muitas vezes é interpretada como RR ou RP. Quando a incidência/prevalência do desfecho não é < 10% a RC produz estimativas de RC próximas à RP e RR. Porém, se o desfecho for comum (³ 10%), a RC superestima a RP e o RR. Este estudo tem como objetivo apresentar uma revisão em 10 revistas da área médica, para verificar a constância da utilização dos métodos que estimam a RP ou RR e a interpretação da RC como RP e RR. Foram selecionados um total de 333 artigos do ano de 2007 e 381 artigos de 2008 com desfecho binário. Entre os estudos de coorte e transversal, 76,2% aplicaram regressão logística e destes, 18,1% em 2007 e 14,7% em 2008 interpretaram a RC como RR ou RP No caso desses estudos, seria aconselhável utilizar um modelo que estime diretamente essas medidas para evitar interpretação equivocadas. Uma vez que a regressão de Poisson com variância robusta e a regressão log-binomial são disponibilizadas em diversos pacotes estatísticos, não há mais motivos para não utilizálos. / Relative Risk (RR) and Prevalence Ratio (PR) are association measures that aim to measure respectively the relation between an outcome binary and an exhibition variables in study of cohort and cross-sectional design. In the cases that there are confounding variables or a factor of e continuous exhibition, the association can be estimated by specific methods such as Poisson Regression, log-binomial regression stratified analyses and conversions proposed by Zhang & Yu. The logistic regression has been widely used to estimate Odds Ratio (OR) which, several times, is interpreted as RR or PR. When the incidence/prevalence of the outcome is not < 10% it produces estimation of OR similar to PR and RR. However, if the outcome is common (³ 10%) the OR overestimates the PR and the RR. However, this study has the objective to present a review in 10 journals of Medicine to verify the constancy of the application of methods that estimate the PR or RR and the interpretation of OR as PR and RR. It was selected a sum of 333 articles from 2007 and 381 articles from 2008 that estimated OR to be RR or PR with binary outcome. Between cohort and cross-sectional studies, 76.2% applied logistic regression and, among these, 18.1% in 2007 and 14.7% in 2008 interpreted OR as PR and RR In these studies should be used a model that estimate directly in order to avoid misinterpretations. Once the Poisson regression with robust variance and the log-binominal regression are available from many statistic packages, there is no reason to not use them.

No description available.

O risco relativo (RR) e a razão de prevalência (RP) são medidas de associação que visam mensurar a relação de um desfecho binário e variáveis de exposição em estudos com delineamento coorte e transversal, respectivamente. Nos casos em que há variáveis de confusão ou um fator de exposição contínuo, a associação pode ser estimada através de métodos específicos, tais como regressão de Poisson, regressão log-binomial, análise estratificada e conversão de Zhang e Yu. A regressão logística tem sido extensivamente usada para estimar a razão de chances (RC), a qual muitas vezes é interpretada como RR ou RP. Quando a incidência/prevalência do desfecho não é < 10% a RC produz estimativas de RC próximas à RP e RR. Porém, se o desfecho for comum (³ 10%), a RC superestima a RP e o RR. Este estudo tem como objetivo apresentar uma revisão em 10 revistas da área médica, para verificar a constância da utilização dos métodos que estimam a RP ou RR e a interpretação da RC como RP e RR. Foram selecionados um total de 333 artigos do ano de 2007 e 381 artigos de 2008 com desfecho binário. Entre os estudos de coorte e transversal, 76,2% aplicaram regressão logística e destes, 18,1% em 2007 e 14,7% em 2008 interpretaram a RC como RR ou RP No caso desses estudos, seria aconselhável utilizar um modelo que estime diretamente essas medidas para evitar interpretação equivocadas. Uma vez que a regressão de Poisson com variância robusta e a regressão log-binomial são disponibilizadas em diversos pacotes estatísticos, não há mais motivos para não utilizálos. / Relative Risk (RR) and Prevalence Ratio (PR) are association measures that aim to measure respectively the relation between an outcome binary and an exhibition variables in study of cohort and cross-sectional design. In the cases that there are confounding variables or a factor of e continuous exhibition, the association can be estimated by specific methods such as Poisson Regression, log-binomial regression stratified analyses and conversions proposed by Zhang & Yu. The logistic regression has been widely used to estimate Odds Ratio (OR) which, several times, is interpreted as RR or PR. When the incidence/prevalence of the outcome is not < 10% it produces estimation of OR similar to PR and RR. However, if the outcome is common (³ 10%) the OR overestimates the PR and the RR. However, this study has the objective to present a review in 10 journals of Medicine to verify the constancy of the application of methods that estimate the PR or RR and the interpretation of OR as PR and RR. It was selected a sum of 333 articles from 2007 and 381 articles from 2008 that estimated OR to be RR or PR with binary outcome. Between cohort and cross-sectional studies, 76.2% applied logistic regression and, among these, 18.1% in 2007 and 14.7% in 2008 interpreted OR as PR and RR In these studies should be used a model that estimate directly in order to avoid misinterpretations. Once the Poisson regression with robust variance and the log-binominal regression are available from many statistic packages, there is no reason to not use them.

O risco relativo (RR) e a razão de prevalência (RP) são medidas de associação que visam mensurar a relação de um desfecho binário e variáveis de exposição em estudos com delineamento coorte e transversal, respectivamente. Nos casos em que há variáveis de confusão ou um fator de exposição contínuo, a associação pode ser estimada através de métodos específicos, tais como regressão de Poisson, regressão log-binomial, análise estratificada e conversão de Zhang e Yu. A regressão logística tem sido extensivamente usada para estimar a razão de chances (RC), a qual muitas vezes é interpretada como RR ou RP. Quando a incidência/prevalência do desfecho não é < 10% a RC produz estimativas de RC próximas à RP e RR. Porém, se o desfecho for comum (³ 10%), a RC superestima a RP e o RR. Este estudo tem como objetivo apresentar uma revisão em 10 revistas da área médica, para verificar a constância da utilização dos métodos que estimam a RP ou RR e a interpretação da RC como RP e RR. Foram selecionados um total de 333 artigos do ano de 2007 e 381 artigos de 2008 com desfecho binário. Entre os estudos de coorte e transversal, 76,2% aplicaram regressão logística e destes, 18,1% em 2007 e 14,7% em 2008 interpretaram a RC como RR ou RP No caso desses estudos, seria aconselhável utilizar um modelo que estime diretamente essas medidas para evitar interpretação equivocadas. Uma vez que a regressão de Poisson com variância robusta e a regressão log-binomial são disponibilizadas em diversos pacotes estatísticos, não há mais motivos para não utilizálos. / Relative Risk (RR) and Prevalence Ratio (PR) are association measures that aim to measure respectively the relation between an outcome binary and an exhibition variables in study of cohort and cross-sectional design. In the cases that there are confounding variables or a factor of e continuous exhibition, the association can be estimated by specific methods such as Poisson Regression, log-binomial regression stratified analyses and conversions proposed by Zhang & Yu. The logistic regression has been widely used to estimate Odds Ratio (OR) which, several times, is interpreted as RR or PR. When the incidence/prevalence of the outcome is not < 10% it produces estimation of OR similar to PR and RR. However, if the outcome is common (³ 10%) the OR overestimates the PR and the RR. However, this study has the objective to present a review in 10 journals of Medicine to verify the constancy of the application of methods that estimate the PR or RR and the interpretation of OR as PR and RR. It was selected a sum of 333 articles from 2007 and 381 articles from 2008 that estimated OR to be RR or PR with binary outcome. Between cohort and cross-sectional studies, 76.2% applied logistic regression and, among these, 18.1% in 2007 and 14.7% in 2008 interpreted OR as PR and RR In these studies should be used a model that estimate directly in order to avoid misinterpretations. Once the Poisson regression with robust variance and the log-binominal regression are available from many statistic packages, there is no reason to not use them.

Après avoir un temps été cantonné à des hypothèses limitées, le préjudice de perte de chances a progressivement conquis des pans variés du droit privé. Création prétorienne des juridictions judiciaires apparue à la fin du XIXème siècle puis consacrée par le juge administratif, la perte de chances a récemment fait son entrée dans le Code civil et le Code de commerce. Son succès se vérifie également par son omniprésence dans les propositions de réforme du droit des obligations qui se sont succédé en droit interne ainsi que par sa reconnaissance par certains droits étrangers, par la Cour européenne des droits de l'Homme et par la Cour de justice de l'Union européenne. Pourtant, la perte de chances ne bénéficie d'aucune définition légale et la jurisprudence s'est bien plus dédiée à accueillir un nombre croissant d'hypothèses sous la dénomination de « perte de chances» plutôt qu'attelée à dégager le substrat de cette figure. En conséquence, celle-ci accuse un déficit de conceptualisation qui s'est révélé préjudiciable. L'absence d'un cadre d'utilisation rigoureusement délimité a ouvert la voie à l'extension erronée de la perte de chances ainsi qu'à la manipulation des conditions pourtant peu contraignantes posées à sa réparation. La doctrine en est même venue à douter de l'identité conceptuelle de la perte de chances, certains auteurs y voyant un préjudice quand d'autres, plus rares, l'analysent comme une technique visant à assouplir l'appréciation du lien de causalité. Le flou conceptuel a inéluctablement mené à un régime fuyant et, vicieusement, ce régime fuyant n'a guère incité à la rigueur conceptuelle. S'est alors répandue l'opinion que grâce à cette notion les juges s'abandonneraient à une casuistique déroutante en qualifiant le préjudice, selon leur tempérament, d'éventuel, pour repousser l'indemnisation ou de certains quand ils souhaitent dédommager. À l'heure de la réforme imminente de la responsabilité civile, l'entreprise de conceptualisation du préjudice de perte de chances était invitante. Pour parvenir à saisir efficacement la figure de la perte de chances, la thèse accorde une attention particulière à l'objet qui la caractérise - pourtant trop peu exploité jusqu'à présent-, à savoir les chances de succès dont était investie la victime antérieurement à la survenance du fait générateur et l'aléa qui les sous-tend. La thèse met d'abord en lumière le fait que cet examen permet de justifier le principe de la protection des chances en tant qu'intérêt protégé par la responsabilité civile puis de rationaliser cette protection. La thèse met ensuite en exergue le fait que c'est l'examen de l'aléa qui commande les principes régissant la réparation du préjudice qui s'infère de la lésion de cet intérêt. / After being restricted for a time to limited assumptions, the loss of opportunity loss gradually won over various parts of private law. Praetorian creation of judicial jurisdictions appeared at the end of the nineteenth century and then sanctioned by the administrative judge, the loss of opportunity has recently entered the Civil Code and the Commercial Code. Its success is also demonstrated by its omnipresence in the successive proposals for the reform of the law of obligations that followed in domestic law as well as by its recognition by certain foreign laws, by the European Court of Human Rights and by the Court of Justice of the European Union. Yet, the loss of opportunity shows a deficit of conceptualization that has proved prejudicial. The absence of a rigorously defined framework of use has opened the way to the erroneous extension of the loss of chances as well as the manipulation of the conditions, which are not very constraining to its repair. At the time of impending civil liability reform, the business of conceptualizing loss of opportunity harm was inviting. ln order to effectively grasp the figure of the loss of opportunity, the thesis pays particular attention to the object that characterizes it - yet too little exploited so far - namely the chances of success of the victim preceding the occurrence of the generating event and, more precisely, the hazard that underlies them. The thesis first highlights the fact that this examination makes it possible to justify the principle of the protection of opportunities as an interest protected by civil liability and then to rationalize this protection. The thesis then highlights the fact that it is the examination of the hazard that governs the principles governing the reparation of the harm that is inferred from the injury of this interest.

La recherche part du constat de "l'érosion de la protection globale dont se trouvait dotée la communauté des travailleurs …" Causes de cette érosion, l'activité législative, mais aussi l'évolution de la jurisprudence ; en effet, "aucun texte n'est si clair que son application ne doive s'accompagner du choix de son sens et de sa portée et qu'il ne dispense le lecteur – et donc le juge, interprète privilégié – d'une reformulation de la règle.". Comment le juge reformule-t-il la règle, quels sont les moyens dont il dispose ou use pour ce faire, quelle est son implication dans cette érosion ? La recherche, soutenue par une réflexion à la fois juridique, politique et philosophique, analyse des décisions judiciaires, leurs commentaires, et des articles de doctrine, qui ont en commun de paraître consacrer cette érosion. La première partie de ce travail porte sur l'éradication des inégalités entre travailleurs masculins et féminins par le recours à des discriminations positives, par le biais de ce que Dworkin appellerait un "hard case" : un arrêt de la Cour de Justice des Communautés Européennes du 17 octobre 1995, statuant quant à la conformité de la législation d'un état membre à la directive européenne du 9 février 1976 relative à la mise en œuvre de l'égalité de traitement entre hommes et femmes en ce qui concerne l'accès à l'emploi, à la formation et à la promotion professionnelles, et les conditions de travail. La haute juridiction y fait bifurquer l'idée en deux concepts, l'égalité des chances et l'égalité des résultats, les définit puis les oppose ; ensuite, elle disqualifie la législation de l'état membre, au motif que celle-ci favorise l'égalité de résultats et non la seule égalité des chances. L'analyse décrit cette construction par la Cour d'un savoir juridique de l'égalité ; elle s'inquiète de la conformité de ce savoir au droit communautaire, du bien-fondé d'une bifurcation entre chances et résultats, et de ses effets sur les inégalités entre hommes et femmes.. Sa deuxième partie porte sur la construction du savoir du droit social, en général. Elle en exhibe certains ingrédients et évalue leurs agencements : la manière dont sont traités les faits, les diverses sortes d'intérêts à l'origine de la production de jurisprudence, la maîtrise du langage et l'art de convoquer le droit, et le pouvoir du praticien d'affecter et d'être affecté par le droit et son milieu. Elle pointe deux grandes bifurcations : celle entre dire le droit et juger quant au fond ; et celle entre "juridiquement correct" et "juste". Elle observe à quelles conditions la jurisprudence devient source effective de droit et se divise en courants majoritaire et minoritaire. Elle distingue deux moments dans la pratique juridique, et deux modes d'existence du jugement. La construction de la motivation, ajustée à tel litige particulier, constitue le moment créatif, qui aboutit au jugement vivant, à l'usage des protagonistes. Ce même jugement, s'il est diffusé dans les médias juridiques, connaît une autre forme d'existence, au sein du corpus jurisprudentiel commun ; si les juristes sont libres de s'y référer ou de l'ignorer, il nourrira un nouveau moment créatif, à titre d'exemple de savoir-faire ; le moment dogmatique, lui, est celui où le système judiciaire se saisit des énoncés de tel jugement vivant pour les imposer, en tant que savoir a priori, lieux de passage obligés, mots d'ordre, limitant ainsi le champ de possibles ouvert à l'activité créatrice.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:32:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 764829 bytes, checksum: 8dbd03463c4800428f75900ca1340eb0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-23 / The use of logistic regression modeling as a tool for modeling statistical probability of an event as a function of one or more independents variables, has grown among researchers in several areas, including Phytopathology. At about the dichotomous logistic regression in which the dependent variable is the type binary or dummy, is the extensive number of studies in the literature that discuss the modeling assumptions and the interpretation of the analyzes, as well as alternatives for implementation in statistical packages. However, when the variable response requires the use three or more categories, the number of publications is scarce. This is not only due to the scarcity of relevant publications on the subject, but also the inherent difficulty of coverage on the subject. In this paper we address the applicability of the model polytomous ordinal logistic regression, as well as differences between the proportional odds models, nonproportional and partial proportional odds. For this, we analyzed data from an experiment in which we evaluated the potential antagonistic fungus Clonostachys rosea in biocontrol of the disease called "gray mold", caused by Botrytis cinerea in strawberry and tomato. The partial proportional odds models and nonproportional were adjusted and compared, since the proportionality test score accused rejection of the proportional odds assumption. The estimates of the model coefficients as well as the odds ratios were interpreted in practical terms for Phytopathology. The polytomous ordinal logistic regression is introduced as an important statistical tool for predicting values, showing the potential of C. rosea in becoming a commercial product to be developed and used in the biological control of the disease, because the application of C. rosea was as or more effective than the use of fungicides in the control of gray mold. / O uso da regressão logística como uma ferramenta estatística para modelar a probabilidade de um evento em função de uma ou mais variáveis explicativas, tem crescido entre pesquisadores em várias áreas, inclusive na Fitopatologia. À respeito da regressão logística dicotômica, na qual a variável resposta é do tipo binária ou dummy, é extenso o número de trabalhos na literatura que abordam a modelagem, as pressuposições e a interpretação das análises, bem como alternativas de implementação em pacotes estatísticos. No entanto, quando a variável resposta requer que se utilize três ou mais categorias, o número de publicações é escasso. Isso devido não somente à escassez de publicações relevantes sobre o assunto, mas também à inerente dificuldade de abrangência sobre o tema. No presente trabalho aborda-se a aplicabilidade do modelo de regressão logística politômica ordinal, bem como as diferenças entre os modelos de chances proporcionais, chances proporcionais parciais e chances não proporcionais. Para isso, foram analisados dados de um experimento em que se avaliou o potencial do fungo antagonista Clonostachys rosea no biocontrole da doença denominada mofo cinzento , causada por Botrytis cinerea em morangueiro e tomateiro. Os modelos de chances proporcionais parciais e não proporcionais foram ajustados e comparados, uma vez que o teste score de proporcionalidade acusou rejeição da pressuposição de chances proporcionais. As estimativas dos coeficientes dos modelos bem como das razões de chances foram interpretadas em termos práticos para a Fitopatologia. A regressão logística politômica ordinal se apresentou como uma importante ferramenta estatística para predição de valores, mostrando o potencial do C. rosea em se tornar um produto comercial a ser desenvolvido e usado no controle biológico da doença, pois a aplicação de C. rosea foi tão ou mais eficiente do que a utilização de fungicidas no controle do mofo cinzento.

Scopo del contributo è descrivere la costruzione e rappresentazione dell’identità nel corso della transizione adolescenziale. Ipotizzata circolarità e reciproca determinazione tra individui e società, lo studio tratta il tema dell’identità come frutto di riflessività e di chances di vita offerte dal contesto. Il fuoco dell’attenzione è sugli adolescenti di origine straniera, scelti come oggetto di studio perché chiamati a vivere la transizione identitaria in maniera amplificata dall’esperienza migratoria ed esemplificativa di traiettorie di costruzione del Sé percorse anche dai pari italiani. L’analisi sottolinea dunque l’analogia generazionale tra adolescenti italiani e stranieri e la pluralità di definizioni identitarie, anche prescindendo dall’eventuale esperienza migratoria. Lo studio ha seguito l’approccio della sociologia visuale, sia nei riferimenti teorici ed analitici, sia sul piano della ricerca empirica. Sono stati intervistati 12 adolescenti, italiani e stranieri, che hanno narrato di sé presentando immagini e video. A partire da ciò sono state individuate 3 tipologie di costruzione identitaria, quella dei relazionali, quella dei progettisti e quella dei sognatori, e si è confermata la reciproca connessione tra individui e società e la pluralità di traiettorie nella transizione alla vita adulta. / The study’s aim is to describe the construction and representation of identity during the adolescent transition. Hypothesizing circularity and reciprocal determination between individuals and society, the study deals with the topic of identity as the result of reflexivity and lifetime chances which are offered by the context. Attention is focused on adolescents with foreign origins, chosen as the subject of study because they are called to experience identity transition in a way which is broadened due to their migratory experiences, and exemplified by paths involving Self-construction which their Italian peers also follow. The analysis thus underscores the generational analogy between Italian and foreign adolescents and the plurality of definitions of identity, also irrespective of any migratory experience. The study followed the visual sociology approach, both in theoretical and analytical terms as well as at the level of empirical research. The 12 Italian and foreign adolescents who were interviewed spoke about themselves through images and videos. 3 types of identity construction were identified thanks to these presentations: relational, planners and dreamers, and a reciprocal connection between individuals and society, and the plurality of paths in the transition to adult life were confirmed.