Urban areas house most of the global population and are also responsible for large shares of global greenhouse gas emissions. Cities and municipalities thus play a significant role in modern society to achieve an energy transition to renewable energy sources and to adapt to climate change. Achieving such a transition is a difficult process due to the high energy density and complexity of urban multi-energy systems. This is further exacerbated by the adverse effect future climate hazards will likely have on urban infrastructure. Despite this, energy development and climate adaptation plans are often researched and drafted in a disjointed manner. In many instances, future energy strategies do not consider climate impacts, whereas climate adaptation tactics disregard energy production. This study proposed that such mutually exclusive analysis and decision-making increases the vulnerability of planned and optimised future urban energy systems. Investigating the Swedish municipality Malmö, the study focused on achieving a future energy transition in its electricity network and then considering potential climate change impacts. Current urban energy plans and capacity were used to forecast the renewable energy potential for 2030 in Malmö’s geographical area. This formed the basis for modelling an optimised hybrid renewable energy system for the municipality using HOMER Grid. Based on future climate data and Malmö’s climate adaptation plans, this system was then evaluated in terms of impacts from climate hazards. The results indicated that Malmö’s current energy plans would expose a large share of their energy infrastructure to risk of damage from climate hazards. Thus, the vulnerability of the optimised energy system is indeed heightened when disregarding climate change impacts in the planning phase. If climate change and energy transition strategies are developed conjointly, urban energy system resilience could likely be increased significantly.

The Mediterranean basin is widely recognized as a climate change hotspot, with climate models projecting increasingly warmer and drier conditions that will impact local ecosystems, communities, and economies. Agriculture will be among the most affected sectors, with harsher conditions for crops’ growth, greater water needs, and lower yields. One of the most resilient crops to limiting and stressful conditions is barley, which is often sown in areas where other crops and cereals would struggle. This work analyzed the impacts of climate change on rainfed barley using the province of Almeria as a case study. This is one of the most arid areas of the Mediterranean basin, where agriculture is among the main economic resources, and where barley is the main crop produced outside greenhouses. Barley growth was modeled using the AquaCrop model in its Python implementation, AquaCrop-OSPy. Setting the model up to avoid local re-calibration of the barley parameters and to capture multi-year trends in productivity change, rather than its interannual variability. The study focused on two 30-year time periods: mid-century (2041-2070), and end-century (2071-2100); and on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. For each time period and SSP scenario, the research also evaluated three sub-scenarios of soil water content at sowing: with the parameter set respectively at 10%, 20%, and 30% of the Total Available Water (the water present in the soil available for the crop to sustain its life). Having estimated climate change impact, the research analyzed different adaptation pathways (irrigation, the application of mulches, and the change in sowing date), to evaluate their performances for climate change adaptation in the area.  The results indicate the importance of soil water content for maintaining good yields, or reducing losses, and indicate the possible average yield change to be between +14% and -45% at mid-century, and between +12% and -55% at end-century. The greater variability in productivity is associated with the soil water content at sowing rather than on the SSP scenario, with SSP5-8.5 being the only one showing a marked difference compared to the others. Regarding irrigation, the results show how with a soil water content at sowing of 10% of the Total Available Water, irrigation up to 100 m³/ha might not be sufficient to avoid productivity losses. Also, the study indicates that an optimal threshold to trigger irrigation for adaptation purposes might be found between 0% and 20% of the Total Available Water. Overall, it indicates how adaptation through irrigation can be viable in the province. The work moreover suggests the effectiveness of mulches as an adaptation strategy to partially limit irrigation water needs in the future and improve the yield performance of the crop. However, the research does not indicate a clear benefit linked to changing the sowing date to earlier or later sowing dates but suggests the importance of correctly seizing the sowing window to reach optimum yield in the future. Lastly, the work shows that the approach used to carry out this research is suitable to assess trends in yield change at multi-year scale, if the analyzed time window is indicatively larger or equal to 10 years, and if an error of around 10% on the results is accepted. / Medelhavsområdet är allmänt erkänt som en hotspot för klimatförändringar, och klimatmodellerna förutspår allt varmare och torrare förhållanden som kommer att påverka lokala ekosystem, samhällen och ekonomier. Jordbruket kommer att vara en av de mest drabbade sektorerna, med tuffare förhållanden för grödornas tillväxt, större vattenbehov och lägre avkastning. En av de grödor som är mest motståndskraftiga mot begränsande och stressande förhållanden är korn, som ofta sås i områden där andra grödor och spannmål skulle ha svårt att klara sig. I det här arbetet analyserades klimatförändringarnas inverkan på regnkorn med provinsen Almeria som fallstudie. Detta är ett av de torraste områdena i Medelhavsområdet, där jordbruket är en av de viktigaste ekonomiska resurserna, och där korn är den viktigaste grödan som produceras utanför växthus. Kornets tillväxt modellerades med hjälp av AquaCrop-modellen i dess Python-implementering, AquaCrop-OSPy. Modellen ställdes in för att undvika lokal omkalibrering av kornparametrarna och för att fånga fleråriga trender i produktivitetsförändringar, snarare än den mellanårliga variationen. Studien fokuserade på två 30-årsperioder: mitten av århundradet (2041-2070) och slutet av århundradet (2071-2100), och på scenarierna SSP1-2,6, SSP2-4,5 och SSP5-8,5 för de gemensamma socioekonomiska vägarna. För varje tidsperiod och SSP-scenario utvärderade forskningen också tre underscenarier av markvatteninnehåll vid sådd: med parametern inställd på 10%, 20% respektive 30% av det totala tillgängliga vattnet (det vatten som finns i jorden som är tillgängligt för grödan för att upprätthålla sitt liv). Efter att ha uppskattat effekterna av klimatförändringarna analyserade forskningen olika anpassningsvägar (bevattning, applicering av mulcher och förändring av sådatum) för att utvärdera deras prestanda för anpassning till klimatförändringar i området.  Resultaten visar att markvattenhalten är viktig för att upprätthålla god avkastning eller minska förlusterna, och visar att den möjliga genomsnittliga avkastningsförändringen är mellan +14% och -45% vid mitten av århundradet och mellan +12% och -55% vid slutet av århundradet. Den större variationen i produktivitet är förknippad med markvatteninnehållet vid sådd, snarare än på SSP-scenariot, med SSP5-8.5 som det enda som visar en markant skillnad jämfört med de andra. När det gäller bevattning visar resultaten att med en markvattenhalt vid sådd på 10% av det totala tillgängliga vattnet, kan bevattning upp till 100 m³ / ha inte vara tillräcklig för att undvika produktivitetsförluster. Studien visar också att en optimal tröskel för att utlösa bevattning i anpassningssyfte kan hittas mellan 0% och 20% av det totala tillgängliga vattnet. Sammantaget visar studien hur anpassning genom bevattning kan vara genomförbar i provinsen. Arbetet tyder dessutom på att mulcher är effektiva som en anpassningsstrategi för att delvis begränsa bevattningsvattenbehovet i framtiden och förbättra grödans avkastning. Forskningen visar dock inte på någon tydlig fördel med att ändra sådatumet till tidigare eller senare sådatum, men antyder vikten av att korrekt utnyttja såfönstret för att nå optimal avkastning i framtiden. Dessutom visar arbetet att den metod som används för att genomföra denna forskning är lämplig för att bedöma trender i avkastningsförändringar på flerårig skala, om det analyserade tidsfönstret är större eller lika med 10 år, och om ett fel på cirka 10% på resultaten accepteras.

Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which is induced by anthropogenic activities increasing the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Sea level rise is already causing a severe impact on coastal wetland ecosystems, and the influence will intensify in the future. One of these coastal ecosystems is mangrove forests, which grow in intertidal zones and are therefore subject to tidal water level fluctuations. Mangrove forests provide essential ecosystem services to coastal environments and societies, and their exposure to sea level rise is a significant concern. The consequences of sea level rise, such as inundation, erosion, and lack of accommodation space, will increase the extent of mangrove loss. It is therefore essential to fully understand how sea level rise is influencing mangrove ecosystems in different geographical locations, and how likely they are to adapt and survive under different scenarios. This research used a systematic literature review to assess scientific articles from various regions, investigating the current knowledge regarding the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystems. The information was collected from 40 articles, which covered studies from five continents. The findings affirmed that the negative effects of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystems are recognized globally. It is well understood that, by the second half of the century, mangrove ecosystems will face severe issues if the highest IPCC emissions scenarios are reached. It is further well acknowledged that mangrove forests provide important ecosystem services, for example, by protecting the coastal areas under extreme weather events, benefiting natural resources sectors and recreation, and further delivering crucial climate change mitigation services by sequestering and storing blue carbon. It is therefore essential to recognize mangroves as an important ecosystem and treat them adequately. Mangrove ecosystems’ resilience under sea level rise was commonly found to be dependent on their hydro-geomorphological environment. Under sea level rise, one of the most significant factors contributing to mangroves’ survival and resilience was the availability of accommodation space, which they need to be able to migrate inland as the sea levels rise, along with their ability to adapt to changes in sediment elevation rates. To secure the needed accommodation space and to further help mangrove ecosystems grow and live under the sea level rise scenarios, adequate climate change adaptation strategies must be planned and adopted. These strategies include prioritizing high-priority areas for vegetation growth, estimating areal habitat suitability, strengthening the understanding of land use impacts on mangrove forests, and implementing hybrid solutions for coastal protection. Although the issue of sea level rise influencing mangrove ecosystems is well recognized globally, there was an observed lack of adequate research. Further research and improved understanding are needed to ensure that preparation for all emission scenarios, even for the worst ones, is possible and that climate change adaptation strategies will be well implemented.

The primary objective of this work was to analyse how water companies are affected by climate change and how they try to adapt to it. Therefore, a systematic literature review was being accomplished. The work is being divided into a theoretical and a methodological part. First of all an overview of the climatic changes that are projected to occur during the next years is being given. Then, resulting impacts on the water cycle are being pointed out. Furthermore, raw water sources, water companies obtain water from are being defined as well as the treatment process. Within the methodological part the approach of a systematic literature review is being applied, which includes the selection of references as well as their evaluation. The results of the literature review are that concerning the effects of climate change on water companies, the risks water providers might face, clearly predominate possible opportunities. Especially the deterioration of the raw water quality caused by increasing temperatures, floods as well as heavy rainfalls can be seen as a serious problem. Moreover, the most often mentioned adaptation strategies are dealing with quantitative water problems such as measures to increase storage as well as treatment capacity or leakage reductions. All in all it can be stated that there is still uncertainty about how climate change is going to effect water companies, especially concerning water quality changes and the treatment process.

The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.

Can rural renewable energy projects simultaneously meet the multiple goals of sustainable development, climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation? If so, under what conditions? Rural communities throughout Latin America have increasingly suffered the impacts of climate change and few policies exist to help them adapt to these impacts. The basic infrastructure and services that they frequently lack can be provided by low carbon technologies, potentially funded by international carbon finance flows that could enable the Millennium Development Goals of economic growth and poverty alleviation to be met while minimizing carbon emissions. This research will focus on this interrelationship among development, climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation policies and practices using political ecology to analyse community renewable energy projects in rural Central America. I assess fifteen community-owned renewable energy projects in Guatemala and Nicaragua to analyse whether current renewable energy projects are achieving these goals in an integrated way. The projects were established primarily as development, emissions reductions, climate change adaptation and disaster relief. The projects are evaluated on economic, development and climate change indicators that include sustainable development, poverty alleviation, emissions reductions, and climate vulnerability. I examine how the type of common property governance, local historical and environmental background and project implementation process influence the project success in meeting multiple objectives of climate adaptation, mitigation and development. Research methods include participatory poverty assessment techniques, semi-structured interviews, stakeholder analysis, and a combination of rapid and participatory methods. The analysis of sustainable development and vulnerability used the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach methodologies and emissions reductions were calculated using standard carbon reduction methodologies. The results show that, under certain conditions, renewable energy projects can simultaneously meet these three objectives, and thus that responses to climate change can be integrated with poverty alleviation and sustainable development. Small scale hydroelectric and solar systems can reduce emissions, enable adaptation and help local livelihoods although there are numerous problems that limit the success of projects including poor design, inequitable distribution of benefits, and poorly designed governance and maintenance structures.

The Mexican Caribbean tourism sector is highly exposed to hurricane activity, yet coastal tourism is also a major driver influencing regional biophysical and social vulnerability to climate risks. Drawing on a political ecology approach and a vulnerability assessment, this study asks how experiences with extreme hurricane events in the Mexican Caribbean shape climate change adaptation in the regional tourism sector. This study uses multiple methods, scales and field sites to (a) examine how biophysical vulnerability to extreme hurricanes affects the tourism sector, (b) explain the changing conditions of social vulnerability linked to hurricane damage in the tourism sector and (c) assess the present and future opportunities and obstacles for adaptation planning. The main findings show that the region is experiencing a phase of unprecedented high intensity hurricanes. It is uncertain, however, whether changes in hurricane activity exceed natural multi-decadal variability. Tourism is one major driver of land use changes which have resulted in some of the world’s fastest increase in coastal urban sprawl. Most tourism infrastructure is located in areas with the greatest exposure to hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma which hit the region in 2005 is the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the Mexican insurance industry. Hotels have showed a high ability to recover operations after hurricanes. There is a high penetration of insurance ownership in hotels and there is substantial mobilization of public and private financial and human resources during hurricane disasters. Hotel responses to hurricanes, however, tend to be reactive and autonomous. One important consequence of hurricanes is that hoteliers in the interest to reduce operational costs, fire those workers with the weakest labour rights. Thus, hotel workers suffer from ‘double exposure’, a situation where hotel workers are confronted with the consequences of climate change while simultaneously suffering the consequences of globalization and neoliberal policies which have reduced the power of unions and weakened access to social security. The Mexican government has created a national climate change strategy and its operational programme which has led to the consolidation of an adaptation organizational structures at the national and state levels. I conclude, however, that adaptation planning may not result in the necessary actions on the ground since local actors are not well integrated yet into such efforts. This study shows the importance of regional adaptation research that takes into account perspectives from both the physical and social sciences. This study highlights the importance of interactions between local actors, the larger socioeconomic and political economy context to inform adaptation planning and policy.

Disasters and climate change threaten the very existence of a special group of developing states- Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This research tackles the problem of limited uptake of integrated approaches to address risk in practice- in particular through disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). The benefits of these approaches are so significant that they can be considered to be investments in development. Focusing on Barbados, a SIDS, this research therefore seeks to identify the prospects for establishing an integrated disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (DRR-CCA) development decision-making framework. It also seeks to understand the policy implications for other SIDS. In addressing the research problem, a risk governance framework and mixed methods approach is proposed for identifying the prospects for DRR-CCA. This allows for the challenges and the potential in actor networks, institutions, and the various dimensions of risk decision-making to be identified. The specific SIDS DRR-CCA risk governance framework utilised to generate the prospects is identified from literature. Data from documents, surveys and in-depth semi-structured interviews with 30 representatives from 20 organisations operating at different levels were gathered on DRR and CCA risk governance in Barbados from November, 2014 to May 2015. Analysis was carried out using document analysis, thematic analysis; social network analysis, and descriptive statistics. The research identifies that SIDS require an enhanced risk governance framework for DRR-CCA. This framework has a systemic approach at the core, as well as an explicit development approach supported by a joined-up governance approach. Furthermore, risk assessments should include assessments of adaptive capacity. Existing potential for DRR-CCA risk governance was identified in highly dense networks, established disaster management networks, and a unique polycentric network that engages intraregional partners in national governance. Notwithstanding, challenges related to cohesion within and across institutions and sectors; missing community and socio-economic participation; as well as issues connected to unadjusted mind-sets to address the DRR paradigm shift in practice, and limited development-socio-ecological systems approaches, meant that the prospects identified mainly addressed these shortcomings. A spatial methodology for DRR-CCA seemed feasible. This research contributes a framework for conceptualising DRR-CCA risk governance in SIDS which could be applicable to others. It offers a Caribbean SIDS perspective and practical suggestions for DRR-CCA that are relevant to SIDS practitioners and donors. Further research should focus on testing the prospects across the varying governance contexts of SIDS.

Laut dem Weltklimarat ist es zweifelsfrei, dass sich das Klima global ändert. Ein sich veränderndes Klima wirkt sich jedoch nicht nur auf die Umwelt, sondern auch auf Unternehmen aus. Diese Auswirkungen können sowohl positiver als auch negativer Art sein. Um auf diese Auswirkungen adäquat zu reagieren, ist es zunächst von Bedeutung, die positiven als auch negativen Effekte zu identifizieren und diese entsprechend zu interpretieren. Ziel der Befragung ist es daher, zu erfassen, wie sich Unternehmen vom Klimawandel betroffen fühlen und wie diese darauf reagieren. Des Weiteren wird untersucht, welche Faktoren einen Einfluss auf den Anpassungsprozess haben. Für die Befragung wurden im Juni 2012 über 2.000 Handwerksbetriebe angeschrieben, wovon insgesamt 207 Unternehmen antworteten. Zwei Drittel dieser Unternehmen nimmt den Klimawandel wahr. Allerdings fühlte sich in der Vergangenheit die Mehrheit der Unternehmen von Extremwetterereignissen nicht betroffen. Die größten negativen Einflüsse werden gegenwärtig als auch in der Zukunft bei den Kältewellen gesehen. Innerhalb des Unternehmens sind insbesondere die Logistik und der Einkauf in Zukunft negativ betroffen; positive Wirkungen werden sich hingegen beim Absatz erhofft. Insgesamt erwarten die Unternehmen eher negative als positive Effekte aus dem Klimawandel, wobei insbesondere das Nahrungsmittelgewerbe und das KFZ-Gewerbe mit negativen Auswirkungen auf ihren Betrieb rechnen. Da sich nur wenige Unternehmen von Extremwetterereignissen bzw. dem Klimawandel betroffen fühlen, verwundert es nicht, dass fast drei Viertel der Unternehmen keine Anpassungsmaßnahmen planen und der Teil, der Anpassungsmaßnahmen umsetzt(e) bzw. beabsichtigt umzusetzen, eher einen geringen Anteil ausmacht. Dies könnte darauf zurückgeführt werden, dass in etwa jedes zweite Unternehmen die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gegenwärtig nicht finanziell spürt. Darüber hinaus fehlen finanzielle Eigenmittel, private Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten und öffentliche Fördermöglichkeiten. Des Weiteren besteht eine hohe Unsicherheit, ob Extremwettereignisse überhaupt auftreten, und welche Anpassungsmaßnahmen möglich wären. Basierend auf den Befragungsergebnissen ist zu empfehlen, Unternehmen mit Informationen zur Thematik Klimawandelfolgen und Anpassungsoptionen zu versorgen, Unternehmen zu Risikoanalysen zu motivieren und mögliche finanzielle Unterstützung im Rahmen der Anpassung an die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels anzubieten.

Climate resilience is increasingly an attribute of competitive global cities. Cities that are most responsive to change will continue to prosper. To achieve this, governance structures and decision-making approaches that promote flexible and/or robust adaptation action are required. This thesis introduces a framework for urban adaptation planning that links medium-term risk management with the development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways. A long-term plan informed by the appraisal of a range of plausible pathways provides the opportunity to retain the flexibility to respond to future uncertainties, whilst also demonstrating how a city could manage future climate risk. This provides stakeholders with confidence that long-term risk is adequately considered, even if there is not a need to act immediately. To demonstrate how adaptation pathways can support adaptation decision-making in an urban system, the approach and methods developed as part of this thesis are applied in London. Adaptation pathways in response to water scarcity, surface water flood and heat risk were developed, and their appraisal presented as pathways diagrams. These diagrams provide a visual representation of the sequencing of decision points and plausible adaptation actions that may be implemented in the future. Pathways diagrams present climate risk and adaptation information for decision-makers in a salient and actionable manner. The pathways responding to individual risks in London are then brought together to demonstrate how an integrated assessment framework may be used to appraise city-scale adaptation pathways that respond to multiple climate risks. The growing emphasis within adaptation planning on approaches that can react flexibly to change increases the need to better understand the dynamics of climate risk and embed learning about the effectiveness of adaptation actions. To complement the pathways and adaptation decision-making research presented in this thesis, a framework that links adaptation monitoring and evaluation (M&E), risk assessment and decision-making is presented and explored to highlight the potential benefits of, and mechanisms for, adaptation M&E to inform and strengthen iterative risk-based adaptation planning. Demonstrated for the Thames Estuary, where concepts of adaptation planning have been pioneered but the opportunities of linking to monitoring and evaluation have not been extensively explored, we show how the framework can highlight actions and factors that are contributing to improving adaptation outcomes and those that require strengthening. This thesis contributes to the literature on urban climate change adaptation planning under conditions of uncertainty. This thesis also contributes to the evidence base needed to justify long-term planning and realise the benefits of climate risk reduction through the implementation of flexible, long-term integrated urban adaptation plans.