Stochastic weather generators create multiple series of synthetic daily weather (precipitation, maximum temperature, etc.), and ideally these series will have statistical properties similar to those of the input historical data. The synthetic output has many applications and for example, can be used in sectors such as agriculture and hydrology. This work used a ?hybrid? weather generator which consists of a parametric Markov chain for generating precipitation occurrence and a nonparametric k-nearest neighbor method for generating values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation. The hybrid weather generator was implemented and validated for use at 11 different locations in the Southeastern United States. A total of 36 graphic diagnostics were used to assess the model?s performance. These diagnostics revealed that the weather generator successfully created synthetic series with most statistical properties of the historical data including extreme wet and dry spell lengths and days of first and last freeze. Climate forecasts are typically provided for seasons or months. Alternatively, process models used for risk assessment often operate at daily time scales. If climate forecasts were incorporated into the daily weather input for process models, stakeholders could then use these models to assess possible impacts on their sector of interest due to anticipated changes in climate conditions. In this work, an ?ad hoc? resampling approach was developed to create sets of daily synthetic weather series consistent with seasonal climate forecasts in the Southeastern United States. In this approach, the output of the hybrid weather generator was resampled based on forecasts in two different formats: the commonly used tercile format and a probability distribution function. This resampling approach successfully created sets of synthetic series which reflected different forecast scenarios (i.e. wetter or drier conditions). Distributions of quarterly total precipitation from the resampled synthetic series were found to be shifted with respect to the corresponding historical distributions, and in some cases, the occurrence and intensity statistics of precipitation in the new weather series had changed with respect to the historical values.

Canadian Prairie agriculture, in general, is expected to benefit under climate change with increasing mean temperatures projected for the immediate future. However, a number of knowledge gaps still exist. Foremost among these is the measurement of the effects of extreme climate events in a given year as well as their long-term impact on the supply of agricultural products, and also the financial situation of farms. In addition, the economic impacts of climate change on livestock operations are relatively under-studied. In particular, knowledge of the impacts on Prairie beef cattle remains more guesswork than research-based evidence. This dissertation assesses the impact of changes in the normal climate as well as the impact of climate extremes by including projected inter-annual climate variability. The economic impact of these changes on crops, beef cattle activities and the viability of farms in mixed operation settings is measured. Correspondingly, this work presents alternative adaptation measures and their likely use in managing mixed farm operations for future extreme weather events. For the analysis, two study sites are selected: (1) the Oldman River Basin of Alberta, called Pincher Creek, and (2) the Swift Current Creek Basin of Saskatchewan, called Swift Current. This study is a part of a larger project entitled “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas” and the study sites are intended to represent the project catchment areas in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. I develop what I call a MF-CCE model (Mixed Farm model for the economic impact assessment of Climate Change and Extremes). The MF-CCE is a whole farm simulation model that integrates models of beef cattle production, crop production and climate changes into farm level economic decisions. Simulations are conducted over a 30-year period in each climate scenario: the first of these is a baseline climate scenario from 1971-2000, and I also simulate future climate change impacts for the 2041-2070 era. The modelled farms produce enough crops, hay and pasture to support the beef cattle feed demand. Pasture demand and supply are linked by specific pasture requirements and productivity. Beef herd feed grain demand and on-farm supply are linked by a linear programming optimization algorithm. Crop mix for the market is selected through the development of a multi-year linear programming problem that maximizes the present value of gross margins. Crop and hay productivity are estimated through the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO’s) AquaCrop (version 3) modeling framework, while annual pasture productivity is estimated using the Forage Calculator for Native Rangeland obtained from the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC). The AquaCrop is a water-driven crop simulation model, termed a crop water productivity (WP) model which simulates the yield response of herbaceous crops to water availability and use. The model is believed to be superior in simulating crop yield in the conditions where water is a key limiting factor in crop production (FAO, 2011). Summarizing the results of the simulation, prairie crop production is expected to benefit under the simulated climate change scenario. Increases in crop productivity generate about 60% higher profits in the Pincher Creek site and about 57% more for the Swift Current site. Due to increases in grain and hay productivity, more area is made available to produce grain for the market. This effectively doubles the crop net return at the Pincher Creek site and triples the crop return at the Swift Current site. A consideration of future pasture response to the climate change scenario is important in estimating climate change consequences for live beef production as well as on the economic return of a mixed farm. If the pasture productivity decreases, as assumed under the regular pasture yield scenario in the study, appropriate adaptation is necessary for the farm to benefit from future climate change. Under this scenario, beef production activities in the future are projected to gain by 50% in Pincher Creek and 40% in Swift Current compared to the baseline scenario. If pasture productivity under the future scenario increases in a manner similar to crop yield increases, existing pastureland will be enough to maintain beef herds into the future. In turn, this strategy will mitigate the cost of beef herd adaptation during climate extremes, and instead gains from beef cattle production would be 35% higher in Swift Current and 6% higher in Pincher Creek relative to gains under regular pasture yield conditions. At the farm level, with beef cattle and crop production combined, substantial gains are projected for both of the study sites. Farm net profit is estimated to increase by more than 35% at the Pincher Creek site and more than 140% at the Swift Current site under the future scenario. Income risk will also be lower in this scenario, as highlighted by a lower coefficient of variation of net farm profit. Farm financial indicators tracked in this study – farm cash flow, family cash flow, and farm net worth – all indicate that the farm’s financial position will be much better in the future climate scenario. At the Pincher Creek site, a few problematic liquidity events are forecasted under the future climate scenario, but in light of significant improvements in other economic indicators, overall, this effect is negligible. The appropriate choice of adaptation strategies for managing beef herds during extreme climate events plays an important role in determining the profitability of not only beef cattle activities, but also the financial position at the whole farm level. However, the choice of adaptations is contextual: the preference of adaptation strategy differs across activities, farms and period of study. For beef cattle activities, maintaining the beef herd without any compromise on herd size and implementing a regular feeding plan is preferred to other adaptation alternatives. At the whole farm level for the Pincher Creek site, culling the herd is preferred under the baseline scenario, while the purchasing feed option is preferred under the future climate scenario. At the Swift Current site, culling the herd is the preferred strategy under both scenarios. Commodity prices and the cost of farm inputs profoundly affect the economic position of the farm under the future climate change scenario. If commodity prices and cost of production remain the same as under the baseline scenario, future farm net profit is estimated to be 50% higher for the Pincher Creek site and about 25% higher for the Swift Current site, compared to profits under projected future prices. This result implies that the pure effect of climate change could be much higher if costs and prices do not change. Results of this dissertation indicate that average Prairie mixed farms, as represented by these study farms, remain economically viable under both the baseline and future scenarios. The results also suggest that the overall gain to these farms under a future climate change scenario would be positive. The potential severity of extreme climate events in the future, at least for the future scenario period simulated in this study, would not be significant enough to threaten the future economic viability of Prairie agriculture. However, the research also highlights the importance of policies that support farmers when they endure losses in years of extreme climate events. Further research on evaluating different Best Management Practices (BMPs) in dealing with droughts, for example, would be helpful in taking advantage of future climate change. Policy development to enhance the longer-term adaptive capacity of Prairie farmers, such as development of early warning systems for climate extremes, or the development of drought tolerant cultivars of crops and forages, would be most helpful in coping with climate extremes in the future.

Thesis (doctoral) - Universität, Rostock, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [187]-214).

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:05:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bruna Gomes Casagrande.pdf: 1917905 bytes, checksum: e718bea85f7b6f30f9d853432b991194 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-19 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Ao mesmo tempo em que foram desenvolvidos no Brasil programas com a meta de racionalização do sistema energético nacional, motivados principalmente pelas crises enfrentadas pelo país, como o racionamento de 2001, estudos a respeito do comportamento do clima em escala mundial apresentaram avanços expressivos, acilitados pela evolução tecnológica e computacional. Entre as estratégias para contenção do desperdício da energia produzida está o consumo pelas edificações, uma vez que a adoção de sistemas construtivos adequados pode reduzir o consumo final de eletricidade. Tal constatação constitui um dos preceitos da arquitetura bioclimática, que preconiza a necessidade de adaptação do edifício ao clima local, sendo, para isso, imprescindível a compreensão dos fenômenos climáticos. Desta forma, o princípio que conduziu esta pesquisa foi o comportamento variável do clima, consenso para grande parte dos climatologistas, e suas consequências para as demandas energéticas futuras, particularmente durante o ciclo de vida planejado para cada edifício. Investigar o impacto das mudanças projetadas para o clima ao longo do século XXI no desempenho termoenergético de edificações comerciais artificialmente climatizadas localizadas em diferentes cidades do Brasil foi o principal objetivo deste estudo. Os procedimentos metodológicos foram divididos em quatro etapas, iniciando-se por uma ampla revisão bibliográfica sobre a temática central mudanças climáticas bem como os temas correlacionados, com especial ênfase para a associação entre conforto térmico e a questão energética. Na segunda etapa foram estabelecidos os mecanismos para preparação de arquivos climáticos futuros, incluindo-se a seleção de cidades para representação das diferentes condições geográficas do território brasileiro. Posteriormente foi efetuado o recorte do objeto, com a indicação dos parâmetros de controle e das variáveis em análise, designandose as características do edifício que não serão afetadas por intervenções futuras: percentual de abertura nas fachadas, dispositivos de proteção solar e orientação das maiores fachadas. A etapa final foi dedicada às simulações, realizadas no programa DesignBuilder a partir da configuração dos 192 modelos paramétricos. Os resultados da aplicação da metodologia, analisados quantitativa e qualitativamente, reproduziram, de forma generalizada, um aumento no consumo de 10,7% em 2020, 16,9% em 2050 e 25,6% em 2080, em relação ao consumo atual. Apesar da significância desse aumento, inclusive para o planejamento energético nacional, aumentos mais expressivos foram registrados em estudos internacionais, reforçando a necessidade de consideração dos fenômenos regionais na preparação de dados climáticos futuros neste tipo de pesquisa. Em Recife, a variação de parâmetros construtivos não provocou diferenças tão significativas nas taxas de aumento do consumo quanto nas outras cinco localidades, sendo que Brasília apresentou as maiores taxas de aumento. Considerando-se os edifícios de todas as cidades, a presença de dispositivos de proteção solar foi a variável com maior impacto para diminuição do consumo, e o edifício orientado a Leste e Oeste, com grandes aberturas desprotegidas, apresentou consumo significativamente superior aos outros modelos, atual e futuramente. Por fim, ao contrário da maioria dos resultados mensais observados, em Porto Alegre ocorreu uma diminuição no consumo em alguns meses de 2020 e 2050, ocasionada possivelmente pela diminuição dos períodos de utilização da climatização artificial para aquecimento / At the same time that programs were developed in Brazil with the goal of the national energy system rationalization, mainly motivated by the crisis faced by the country as in the rationing of 2001 studies of the climate s behavior on a global scale showed significant advances, facilitated by technological and computational development. One of the strategies for containment the waste energy produced is the energy consumption by buildings, since the adoption of appropriate constructive systems can reduce the final electricity consumption. This was a principle of bioclimatic architecture, which recommends an adaptation of the building to the local climate conditions, and for that, it is essential to understand the climate system. Therefore, the principle that guided the development of this research was the variable behavior of the climate, which is consensus for most climatologists, and its consequences for the future energy demands of buildings, particularly along the planned life cycle for each building. The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of projected changes to the climate over the twenty-first century in the thermo energetic performance of commercial buildings artificially acclimatized located in different cities of Brazil. The methodological procedures were divided into four stages, initiating with an extensive literature review on the central theme climate change as well as related topics, with special emphasis on the relationship between thermal comfort and energy issue. In the second step mechanisms for preparing future climate files were established, including the selection of cities for representation of different geo-climatic conditions of the Brazilian territory. After that the definition of the object was performed, indicating the control parameters and variables in the analysis, assigning the characteristics of the building that will not be affected by future interventions window wall ratio, solar shading and orientation of the largest facades. The final step was dedicated to the simulations, performed in the program DesignBuilder from the configuration of the 192 parametric models. The results of applying the methodology, analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, reproduced in generalized way an increase in energy consumption in buildings by 10.7% in 2020, 16.9% in 2050 and 25.6% in 2080, compared to current consumption. Although the significance of this increase, including the national energy planning, most significant increases were recorded in international studies, reinforcing the need for consideration of regional climate events in the preparation of future climate data in this type of research. In Recife, the variation of constructive parameters did not cause as significant differences in the rates of increase in consumption as the other five locations, and Brasilia had the highest rates of increase. Considering the buildings of all the cities, the presence of solar shading was the variable with the greatest impact on reducing energy consumption, and the building oriented east and west, with large unprotected openings, showed energy consumption significantly superior to other models, in all cities and periods. Finally, unlike most of monthly results observed, in Porto Alegre occurred a decrease in energy consumption in some months of 2020 and 2050, possibly caused by the reduction in time use of artificial air conditioning heating

abstract: The Urban Heat Island (UHI) has been known to have been around from as long as people have been urbanizing. The growth and conglomeration of cities in the past century has caused an increase in the intensity and impact of Urban Heat Island, causing significant changes to the micro-climate and causing imbalances in the temperature patterns of cities. The urban heat island (UHI) is a well established phenomenon and it has been attributed to the reduced heating loads and increased cooling loads, impacting the total energy consumption of affected buildings in all climatic regions. This thesis endeavors to understand the impact of the urban heat island on the typical buildings in the Phoenix Metropolitan region through an annual energy simulation process spanning through the years 1950 to 2005. Phoenix, as a representative city for the hot-arid cooling-dominated region, would be an interesting example to see how the reduction in heating energy consumption offsets the increased demand for cooling energy in the building. The commercial reference building models from the Department of Energy have been used to simulate commercial building stock, while for the residential stock a representative residential model prescribing to IECC 2006 standards will be used. The multiyear simulation process will bring forth the energy consumptions of various building typologies, thus highlighting differing impacts on the various building typologies. A vigorous analysis is performed to see the impact on the cooling loads annually, specifically during summer and summer nights, when the impact of the 'atmospheric canopy layer' - urban heat island (UHI) causes an increase in the summer night time minimum and night time average temperatures. This study also shows the disparity in results of annual simulations run utilizing a typical meteorological year (TMY) weather file, to that of the current recorded weather data. The under prediction due to the use of TMY would translate to higher or lower predicted energy savings in the future years, for changes made to the efficiencies of the cooling or heating systems and thermal performance of the built-forms. The change in energy usage patterns caused by higher cooling energy and lesser heating energy consumptions could influence future policies and energy conservation standards. This study could also be utilized to understand the impacts of the equipment sizing protocols currently adopted, equipment use and longevity and fuel swapping as heating cooling ratios change. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Architecture 2011

Since ancient times, roads have tied people and cultures together. Roads have been createdwith the aim of facilitating trade and cultural exchange among different regions in the world. After the technologic development in vehicle industry and dramatically increase of motoring in the world during the past century road communication has gained a great importance for transporting people and goods. Thus, good safety and accessibility on roads all year round is now a vital necessity for a healthy economy in all modern societies. In order to keep roads safe, available for use with high transport quality they need to be maintained in real time. One of the most difficult tasks in this context is to keep the roads in good condition and accessible even during winter. The main objective of this doctoral thesis is to attempt to specify the most efficient ways of executing winter road maintenance.  The preliminary issue in this context is whether it is the use of current assistive tools, that is, technical aspects that should be optimized and developed or whether it is the way in which winter maintenance services are procured and outsourced, that is, contractual aspects that should be improved which could give the optimal impact for both clients and contractors and make winter road maintenance more effective, or both issues. In order to define the outline of the research project a comprehensive state of the art survey was initiated with the intention of collecting and gaining insights into the earlier studies in the research area. Three basic areas associated with the performance of winter road maintenance were considered to be most relevant for review due to the anchorage between the areas. The selected areas were climatological, technical and contractual aspects. The literature review was followed by an electronic questionnaire survey. The results of the study in this stage showed that current technical methods almost functioned in a reasonable manner but there was an imprecise dissatisfaction with the current maintenance contract. The second stage of the research consisted of a number of additional empirical investigations in order to identify contractual problematic issues behind the current winter road maintenance in Sweden. Generally, those factors that are rarely considered as potential underlying causes to costly performance of winter road maintenance in Sweden were studied in this research project for example improper use of related technical assistive tools, procurement of improper bundled winter services and inappropriate contract structure. This thesis consists of six papers, five of which are related to each other, and the first one is completely independent but within research area. Findings in the thesis contributes to extend understanding about; how designing appropriate contracts can improve winter road maintenance, how proper use of assistive tools can reduce unnecessary winter road maintenance costs and minimize road traffic disruptions and delays, how a partnering structure in contracts can create confidence and trust between clients and contractors that in turn leads to minimizing or eliminating conflicts and disputes between parties involved, how choice of appropriate procurement methods through proper bundling of winter road services can contribute to shorten the procurement process and create incentives for contractors, and how selection of proper payment mechanisms can contribute to higher service quality of performed winter road measures. Additionally, an adequate knowledge and understanding of climate, proper knowledge of road weather and its impact on winter road traffic is essential for contribution of better planning of how to maintain the road network during winter. Since understanding about winter issues and its effect on winter road traffic is far from complete and winter road maintenance in the cold regions is a similar challenge, broad and complex, the results of this research may even contribute to improving winter maintenance problems in the countries with severe winters like Sweden. / <p>QC 20140227</p>

Studien undersökte implementeringen och undervisningen av klimat och väder som år 2011 lades till under Fysik 1 i den svenska gymnasieskolan. Undersökningen använde sig av metodkombination som omfattade lärarintervjuer kompletterade med intervju av ett undervisningsråd på Skolverket och med textanalys av kursböcker. Lärarna upplevde en del problem kopplat till vad det nya ämnesområdet skulle innehålla. Oklarheten kring vad området skulle innehålla märktes också i kursböckernas framställning. Intervjupersonerna var överens om att viktiga aspekter inom ämnesområdet var växthuseffekten och global uppvärmning. Växthuseffekten och global uppvärmning hade även en framträdande roll i kursböckernas framställning. Från lärarintervjuerna framkom att lärarna gärna inkluderade Samhällsfrågor med Naturvetenskapligt Innehåll (SNI) i sin undervisning, men i bedömningen av elevernas lärande var det fysikalisk begreppsförståelse som accentuerades. Ämnesöverskridande samarbeten beskrevs av lärarna som önskvärt och förekom ofta. / This study examined the implementation and teaching of climate and weather which was added in the year 2011 under Physics 1 in the Swedish upper secondary school. The study performed a mixed-methods approach consisting of teacher interviews supplemented with an interview with an official at the Swedish National Agency for Education and with text analysis of course books. The teacher’s experienced some problems related to what the new subject area would contain. The uncertainty about what the area would contain was also seen in the course books. The interviewees’ opinion that the important issues in the subject area were the greenhouse effect and global warming were shared among the teachers. The greenhouse effect and global warming also had prominent roles in the course books. From the interviews it was found that teachers were positive to include Socio-Scientific Issues (SSI) into their teaching, but when assessing students learning the concepts of physics were emphasized. Cross-disciplinary cooperation was described by the teachers as desirable and often occurring.