A significant share of the global climate change impacts can be attributed to the construction sector. One mitigation strategy is increasing the use of biobased materials. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been used to demonstrate the benefits of this, but forest complexities create uncertainty due to omission of key aspects. The aim of this thesis is to enhance understanding of the effects of increasing use of biobased materials in climate change mitigation of construction works with a life cycle perspective. Non-traditional LCA methodology aspects were identified and the climate impact effects of increasing the use of biobased materials while accounting for these was studied. The method applied was dynamic LCA combined with forest carbon data under multi-approach scenarios. Diverse case studies (a building, a small road bridge and the Swedish building stock) were used. Most scenarios result in impact reductions from increasing the use of biobased materials in construction. The inclusion of non-traditional aspects affected the results, but not this outcome. Results show that the climate mitigation potential is maximized by simultaneously implementing other strategies (such as increased use of low-impact concrete). Biobased building materials should not be generalised as climate neutral because it depends on case-sensitive factors. Some of these factors depend on the modelling of the forest system (timing of tree growth, spatial level approach, forest land use baseline) or LCA modelling parameters (choice of the time horizon, end-of-life assumptions, service life). To decrease uncertainty, it is recommended to use at least one metric that allows assessment of emissions based on their timing and to use long-term time horizons. Practitioners should clearly state if and how non-traditional aspects are handled, and study several methodological settings. Technological changes should be accounted for when studying long-term climate impacts of building stocks. / Irreversibel global påverkan på klimat och miljö måste undvikas och olika strategier som begränsar klimatförändringarna kan utnyttjas för att hantera denna utmaning. En betydande andel av de globala utsläppen av växthusgaser kan hänföras till byggsektorn i allmänhet och cementproduktion i synnerhet, och begränsningsstrategier söker alternativ till fossil- och mineralbaserade resurser, med mindre påverkan, som exempelvis en ökad användning av biobaserade material i byggandet. Livscykelanalys (LCA) har använts för att demonstrera klimatnyttan av denna ökning, men skogens komplexiteter i samband med biogent koldioxid skapar osäkerhet i resultaten då de som genomför LCA-studier traditionellt utelämnar viktiga nyckelaspekter. Denna avhandling syftar till att öka förståelsen för effekterna av en ökad användning av biobaserade material för begränsning av byggandets klimatpåverkan i ett livscykelperspektiv. Forskningsfrågorna formulerades med fokus på att identifiera icke-traditionell LCA-metodik, samt att bedöma miljöeffekterna av en ökad användning av biobaserade material med redovisning av dessa aspekter på olika nivåer, gällande enstaka konstruktioner och byggnadsbeståndet som helhet. Den metodik som används är dynamisk LCA i kombination med data om skogskolbalans, med analyser av flera scenarier med olika metodologiska antaganden. Fallstudier med olika kännetecken användes, nämligen en byggnad, en bilvägsbro och en uppskattning av det svenska byggnadsbeståndet på lång sikt. Resultaten bekräftar att en ökad användning av biobaserade material minskar klimatpåverkan av byggandet – en tydlig majoritet av de scenarier som analyserats för alla fallstudier resulterar i sänkt klimatpåverkan. Införandet av icke-traditionella LCA-aspekter påverkar resultatet, men förändrar inte att en ökad användning av biobaserade material resulterar i lägre långsiktig och kumulativ klimatpåverkan. Resultaten visar också att den maximala klimatbegränsningspotentialen endast nås genom att samtidigt införa andra tekniska lösningar med lägre klimatpåverkan. När det gäller LCA-metodik visar resultaten att antagandet att biobaserade byggnadsmaterial är klimatneutrala är en överförenkling eftersom deras klimatpåverkan beror på fallspecifika faktorer och därför bör inga generaliseringar göras. Några av dessa klimatpåverkande faktorer beror på modellering av skogssystemet i en dynamisk LCA; såsom när skogstillväxten antas börja i förhållande till avverkningen, den geografiska upplösningen för att analysera de biogena kolflödena dvs. som ett avverkningsbestånd eller på landskapsnivå och vad utgångsläget sätts till vid analys av skogens markanvändning. Andra faktorer beror på LCA-modellering, nämligen valet av integrerad tidshorisont för beräkning av klimatpåverkan, det antagna scenariot för avfallshantering och lagringsperioden för det biogena kolet i tillverkade produkter. För att minska osäkerheten i bedömning av klimatpåverkan av biobaserade byggmaterial rekommenderas användning av minst en mätmetod som gör det möjligt att bedöma koldioxidutsläppen baserat på tidpunkten på dessa, samt att tillämpa mätvärden med långa tidsperspektiv. Redovisning av icke-traditionella aspekter har en betydande effekt på klimatpåverkan av biobaserade byggmaterial. Utförare av analyser rekommenderas därför även att redovisa hur dessa aspekter hanteras och att ställa upp flera olika scenarier och analysera dessa med flera olika metodologiska inställningar. Slutligen rekommenderas att ta hänsyn till den tekniska utvecklingen vid analyser av långsiktig klimatpåverkan av byggnadsbeståndet som genomförs med dynamiska värden för processer som äger rum i framtiden. / Para evitar impactos irreversibles a nivel global, es necesario mitigar el cambio climático. Una parte significativa de las emisiones globales de gases efecto invernadero puede atribuirse al sector de la construcción y la producción de cemento. Entretanto, se busca implementar estrategias de mitigación de bajo impacto, tal es el caso de incrementar el uso de materiales de origen forestal. El análisis de ciclo de vida (ACV) se aplica con frecuencia para demostrar los beneficios climáticos de este incremento, pero las complejidades relacionadas con el bosque y el carbono biogénico crean incertidumbre ya que los autores normalmente omiten ciertos aspectos clave. Esta tesis busca mejorar la comprensión de los efectos de un incremento en el uso de materiales de origen forestal en la mitigación del cambio climático en el sector de la construcción, bajo una perspectiva de ciclo de vida. Para ello se han formulado preguntas de investigación centradas en la identificación de los aspectos metodológicos no tradicionales del ACV que pueden afectar el resultado, así como en la evaluación de los efectos ambientales del aumento del uso de materiales biológicos en construcciones o en la construcción en existencia, mientras se toman en cuenta dichos aspectos. Los métodos aplicados incluyen el ACV dinámico en combinación con modelos del balance de carbón en el bosque, además del análisis de múltiples escenarios con diferentes configuraciones metodológicas y asunciones. Se utilizaron casos de estudio con diferentes características y sus respectivos productos equivalentes de referencia; un edificio, un puente para carretera pequeño y la construcción en existencia en Suecia a largo plazo. Los resultados confirman que el aumento del uso de materiales de origen forestal disminuye el impacto climático de la construcción, ya que la gran mayoría de los escenarios analizados para todos los casos de estudio resultan en reducciones del impacto climático. La inclusión de aspectos no tradicionales del ACV ha influido en los resultados, sin afectar el hecho de que incrementar el uso de material biológico se traduce en menores impactos climáticos acumulados a largo plazo. Los resultados también muestran que el potencial máximo de mitigación climática sólo se alcanza mediante la implementación simultánea de otras tecnologías de bajo impacto. En cuanto a la metodología del ACV, la tesis ilustra que la hipótesis de que los biomateriales de construcción son neutrales respecto a sus impactos climáticos es una simplificación excesiva, y demuestra también que los flujos de carbono biogénico deben ser tenidos en cuenta. El balance de carbono de los materiales de construcción de origen forestal depende de factores relacionados con el sistema forestal que son sensibles las circunstancias del caso de estudio; por lo que no deberían hacerse generalizaciones. De dichos factores, algunos dependen de los modelos usados para simular el sistema forestal; tales como la contabilización del punto temporal de ocurrencia de los flujos de carbono biogénico, la perspectiva espacial para medir estos flujos y la línea de base trazada para el sistema forestal. Otros factores dependen del modelo usado para el ACV, como la elección del horizonte temporal integrado para el cálculo del impacto, el escenario de disposición final y el período de almacenamiento del carbono biogénico en los productos. Para obtener conclusiones más robustas, se recomienda que los autores de estudios utilicen al menos un método adicional al GWP que les permita evaluar las emisiones de carbono basadas en el punto temporal de su ocurrencia, así como que se apliquen horizontes temporales a largo plazo en el uso de dichos métodos. Tener en cuenta los aspectos no tradicionales estudiados en esta tesis en estudios de ACV de materiales de construcción de origen forestal puede tener una influencia significativa en su impacto climático, por lo que se recomienda que los autores expongan claramente si estos aspectos se incluyen y cómo se incluyen. También se recomienda que se analicen múltiples escenarios con una variedad de configuraciones metodológicas alternativas. Por último, se recomienda tener en cuenta los cambios tecnológicos en los análisis a largo plazo de los impactos climáticos de la construcción en existencia, utilizando factores de impacto dinámico para los procesos que trascurran en el futuro. / <p>QC 20170517</p> / EnWoBio - Engineered Wood and Biobased Building Materials Laboratory

Tropical forests restoration is an important tool for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. We can ally both of these elements, according to the biodiversity and ecosystem (BEF) functioning theory, which says that diversity enhances ecosystem functions, as primary productivity. Nevertheless, the greatest part of BEF studies up to very recently have focused on grasslands and not on as complex ecosystems as tropical forests. It is necessary to better understand above- and below-ground processes through which biodiversity acts on ecosystem functions. This work aimed to investigate effects of tree richness on both above- and below-ground ecological processes. It was based on two tropical forests undergoing restoration, in Sardinilla (Panama) and in Anhembi (Brazil). The former was especially designed for BEF studies and allowed to untangle effects of biodversity on ecosystem functions. The latter had more than a hundred species in plots and permitted investigation of the effects of high tree richness levels. In both Sardinilla and Anhembi, we investigated if tree richness levels affected an above-ground ecological process, light interception, and which mechanisms could be related to it. Richness could enhance light interception and mechanisms as spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal light distribution. It promoted both selection and complementarity effects. In Anhembi, we investigated if species richness influenced below-ground processes related to soil carbon stocks. Stand richness enhanced fine root production and stock. Effects of stand number of species on litter decomposition and stock were not linear. Richness of litter content, however, did not affect its decomposition rates. Number of stand species did not influence litter production. Differences of litter production, stock and fine root production among distinct richness levels did not change over the time. However, distribution of fine roots over the space, within different layers of soil, was affected by number of tree species. We concluded that even very high richness levels could not saturate some of the ecological processes studied. Diversity acted on both above- and below-ground processes, in various and sometimes opposite ways, counting on multi-direction feedbacks. It is very important to understand these mechanisms in order to potencialize biodiversity convervation and carbon sequestration by tropical forest restoration. Future studies may focus on untangling effects of diversity on below-ground processes (which have not been exhaustively explored in research), on understanding how high diversity levels affects natural regeneration and on investigationg functional traits provided by different species. / A restauração de florestas tropicais é uma importante ferramenta para a mitigação de mudanças climáticas e conservação de biodiversidade. Essas duas medidas podem ser aliadas, de acordo com a teoria de biodiversidade e funcionamento de ecossistemas (BEF, do inglês: biodiversity and ecosystem functioning), segundo a qual a diversidade pode favorecer funções do ecossistema, como a produtividade primária. Entretanto, a maior parte dos estudos de BEF até muito recentemente focaram em campos de gramíneas e não em ecossistemas tão complexos quanto florestas tropicais. É necessário entender tanto processos acima quanto abaixo do solo pelos quais a biodiversidade atua no funcionamento de ecossistemas. Este trabalho teve como objetivo verificar o efeito da riqueza de espécies arbóreas em processes ecológicos acima e abaixo do solo. Ele se baseou em duas áreas de estudo, em Sardinilla (Panamá) e em Anhembi (Brasil). A primeira foi especialmente projetada para estudos de BEF e permitiu destrinchar efeitos da biodiversidade em funções do ecossistema. A segunda possuía parcelas com mais de cem espécies, permitindo explorar os efeitos de altos níveis de riqueza. Tanto em Sardinilla quanto em Anhembi, investigamos se a riqueza de espécies arbóreas influenciou um processo ecológico acima do solo, a interceptação de luz, bem como mecanismos que podem estar associados a ele. A riqueza de espécies aumentou a interceptação de luz pelo dossel e estimulou mecanismos como a distribuição de luz ao longo do espaço (horizontal e vertical) e tempo. Ela promoveu tanto efeito de seleção quanto de complementaridade. Na área de Anhembi, investigamos se a riqueza de espécies influenciou processes abaixo do solo relacionados ao estoque de carbono nesse compartimento. A riqueza no dossel aumentou a produção e o estoque de raízes finas. Número de espécies do dossel teve efeito não linear sobre taxas de decomposição e estoque de serapilheira. A riqueza do conteúdo da serapilheira, contudo, não influenciou sua decomposição. O número de espécies do dossel também não influenciou a produção de serapilheira. As diferenças de produção e estoque de serapilheira e de produção de raízes finas, entre diferentes níveis de riquezas, não se alteraram ao longo do tempo. Contudo, o número de espécies arbóreas promoveu maior distribuição de raízes finas em diferentes camadas do solo. Concluímos que elevados níveis de riqueza não saturaram alguns processes ecológicos estudados. A diversidade foi capaz de atuar em processos tanto acima quanto abaixo do solo, por vários meios, muitas vezes em sentidos opostos, contando com feedbacks multidirecionais. É muito importante entender esses mecanismos para potencializar a conservação da biodiversidade e a provisão de funções ecossistêmicas, no processo de restauração de florestas tropicais, em um contexto internacional de necessidade de mitigação de mudanças climáticas. Estudos futuros devem focar em efeitos da diversidade em processos abaixo do solo (que são os menos abordados em estudos até o momento), em entender como altos níveis de diversidade podem afetar a regeneração natural em florestas e em explorar os atributos funcionais apresentados por cada espécie.

Tropical forests restoration is an important tool for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. We can ally both of these elements, according to the biodiversity and ecosystem (BEF) functioning theory, which says that diversity enhances ecosystem functions, as primary productivity. Nevertheless, the greatest part of BEF studies up to very recently have focused on grasslands and not on as complex ecosystems as tropical forests. It is necessary to better understand above- and below-ground processes through which biodiversity acts on ecosystem functions. This work aimed to investigate effects of tree richness on both above- and below-ground ecological processes. It was based on two tropical forests undergoing restoration, in Sardinilla (Panama) and in Anhembi (Brazil). The former was especially designed for BEF studies and allowed to untangle effects of biodversity on ecosystem functions. The latter had more than a hundred species in plots and permitted investigation of the effects of high tree richness levels. In both Sardinilla and Anhembi, we investigated if tree richness levels affected an above-ground ecological process, light interception, and which mechanisms could be related to it. Richness could enhance light interception and mechanisms as spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal light distribution. It promoted both selection and complementarity effects. In Anhembi, we investigated if species richness influenced below-ground processes related to soil carbon stocks. Stand richness enhanced fine root production and stock. Effects of stand number of species on litter decomposition and stock were not linear. Richness of litter content, however, did not affect its decomposition rates. Number of stand species did not influence litter production. Differences of litter production, stock and fine root production among distinct richness levels did not change over the time. However, distribution of fine roots over the space, within different layers of soil, was affected by number of tree species. We concluded that even very high richness levels could not saturate some of the ecological processes studied. Diversity acted on both above- and below-ground processes, in various and sometimes opposite ways, counting on multi-direction feedbacks. It is very important to understand these mechanisms in order to potencialize biodiversity convervation and carbon sequestration by tropical forest restoration. Future studies may focus on untangling effects of diversity on below-ground processes (which have not been exhaustively explored in research), on understanding how high diversity levels affects natural regeneration and on investigationg functional traits provided by different species. / A restauração de florestas tropicais é uma importante ferramenta para a mitigação de mudanças climáticas e conservação de biodiversidade. Essas duas medidas podem ser aliadas, de acordo com a teoria de biodiversidade e funcionamento de ecossistemas (BEF, do inglês: biodiversity and ecosystem functioning), segundo a qual a diversidade pode favorecer funções do ecossistema, como a produtividade primária. Entretanto, a maior parte dos estudos de BEF até muito recentemente focaram em campos de gramíneas e não em ecossistemas tão complexos quanto florestas tropicais. É necessário entender tanto processos acima quanto abaixo do solo pelos quais a biodiversidade atua no funcionamento de ecossistemas. Este trabalho teve como objetivo verificar o efeito da riqueza de espécies arbóreas em processes ecológicos acima e abaixo do solo. Ele se baseou em duas áreas de estudo, em Sardinilla (Panamá) e em Anhembi (Brasil). A primeira foi especialmente projetada para estudos de BEF e permitiu destrinchar efeitos da biodiversidade em funções do ecossistema. A segunda possuía parcelas com mais de cem espécies, permitindo explorar os efeitos de altos níveis de riqueza. Tanto em Sardinilla quanto em Anhembi, investigamos se a riqueza de espécies arbóreas influenciou um processo ecológico acima do solo, a interceptação de luz, bem como mecanismos que podem estar associados a ele. A riqueza de espécies aumentou a interceptação de luz pelo dossel e estimulou mecanismos como a distribuição de luz ao longo do espaço (horizontal e vertical) e tempo. Ela promoveu tanto efeito de seleção quanto de complementaridade. Na área de Anhembi, investigamos se a riqueza de espécies influenciou processes abaixo do solo relacionados ao estoque de carbono nesse compartimento. A riqueza no dossel aumentou a produção e o estoque de raízes finas. Número de espécies do dossel teve efeito não linear sobre taxas de decomposição e estoque de serapilheira. A riqueza do conteúdo da serapilheira, contudo, não influenciou sua decomposição. O número de espécies do dossel também não influenciou a produção de serapilheira. As diferenças de produção e estoque de serapilheira e de produção de raízes finas, entre diferentes níveis de riquezas, não se alteraram ao longo do tempo. Contudo, o número de espécies arbóreas promoveu maior distribuição de raízes finas em diferentes camadas do solo. Concluímos que elevados níveis de riqueza não saturaram alguns processes ecológicos estudados. A diversidade foi capaz de atuar em processos tanto acima quanto abaixo do solo, por vários meios, muitas vezes em sentidos opostos, contando com feedbacks multidirecionais. É muito importante entender esses mecanismos para potencializar a conservação da biodiversidade e a provisão de funções ecossistêmicas, no processo de restauração de florestas tropicais, em um contexto internacional de necessidade de mitigação de mudanças climáticas. Estudos futuros devem focar em efeitos da diversidade em processos abaixo do solo (que são os menos abordados em estudos até o momento), em entender como altos níveis de diversidade podem afetar a regeneração natural em florestas e em explorar os atributos funcionais apresentados por cada espécie.

The continuous depletion of fossil fuel reserves, the global agenda on climate change and threats to energy security have led to increased global interest in the exploration, production and utilisation of bioenergy and biofuels. Access to modern bioenergy carriers derived from the efficient conversion of locally available biomass resources is indispensable for economic growth, rural development and sustainable development in developing countries. Deployment of bioenergy/biofuels technologies has significantly varied across the globe. The least developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries are still highly dependent on traditional biomass technologies with low conversion efficiency, which are typically associated with significant environmental and health impacts. Meanwhile, emerging economies and developed countries are progressively promoting biofuel industries and international trade. They are also engaged in making biofuels a sustainable proposition by developing sustainability criteria. The goal of this thesis is to address the sustainability of bioethanol production derived from one of the key feedstocks/energy crops: sugarcane. This will be done by analysing different development contexts and environmental constraints in terms of geopolitical situation, economic development and state-of-the-art technologies in agro-industrial development. Life cycle assessment (LCA), system studies, and techno-economic optimisation are the main methodological approaches applied in the thesis. The thesis primarily addresses three key questions for analysing the sustainability of bioethanol production. The first research question investigates the key parameters affecting the sustainability of bioethanol production and use in a low-income country using the case of Nepal. The net energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are identified to be the main sustainability criteria of the sugarcane-molasses bioethanol (Paper I and II). Results of the lifecycle studies show that the production of bioethanol is energy-efficient in terms of the fossil fuel inputs required to produce the renewable fuel. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production and combustion of ethanol are also lower than those from gasoline. The study also evaluates the socio-economic and environmental benefits of ethanol production and use in Nepal, concluding that the major sustainability indicators are in line with the goals of sustainable development (Paper III). Assessment of the biofuel (molasses-bioethanol) sustainability in Nepal is the first of its kind in low-income countries, and serves also the purpose of motivating the assessment of ethanol production potential in other LDCs, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The second question critically evaluates methodologies for accounting the lifecycle GHG emissions of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol in European and American regulations, depicting commonalities and differences among them (Paper IV). GHG emissions are becoming increasingly important as part of sustainability criteria in the context of the expansion of biofuel production and international trade. However, different methodologies still lead to quite different results and interpretation. To make this an operational criterion for international comparisons, it is necessary to establish unified methodological procedures for accounting GHG emissions. The thesis identifies the major issues as  N2O emissions from agricultural practices, bioelectricity credits in fuel production, and modelling approaches in estimating emissions related to direct and indirect land use change (LUC &amp; iLUC), that need to be addressed for establishing methodological coherences. The third research question investigates how the sugarcane bioethanol industry can be developed in terms of energy security and the diversification of energy sources. The case of complementarity between bioelectricity and hydropower is evaluated in the cases of Nepal and Brazil and presented in Paper V. Bioelectricity could offer a significant share of electricity supply in both countries provided that favourable political and institutional conditions are applied. Finally, in order to find the choice of technological options for the production of second generation (2G) bioethanol and/or of bioelectricity, a techno-economic optimisation study on the bulk of sugarcane bio-refineries in Brazil is carried out in Paper VI, taking into account the entire lifecycle costs, emissions, and international trade. The study shows that it is worthwhile to upgrade sugarcane bio-refineries. Energy prices, type of power generation systems, biofuel support and carbon tax, and conversion efficiencies are the major factors influencing the technological choice and potential bioethanol trade. In short, this dissertation provides insights on the sustainability of the bioethanol production/industry and its potential role in the mitigation of climate change, improved energy security and sustainable development in different country contexts, as well as methodological contributions for assessing the sustainability of biofuels production in connection with energy and climate policies. / Intresset för ökad exploatering, produktion och användning av bioenergi och biobränslen har föranletts av den kontinuerliga utmattningen av fossila bränslen, den globala agendan för att motverka klimatförändringar samt hoten mot energisäkerheten. Tillgången till moderna bioenergibärare, effektivt framställda från lokal råvara, är grundläggande för ekonomisk tillväxt, landsbygdsutveckling samt för hållbar utveckling i utvecklingsländer. Användandet av bioenergi- och biobränsleteknologi har varierat markant världen över. De minst utvecklade länderna (LDCs) samt övriga utvecklingsländer är fortfarande beroende av traditionella biomassabaserade tekniker till stor utsträckning. Dessa tekniker har låg effektivitet och är ofta sammankopplade med stora miljö- och hälsoskador. Samtidigt främjar tillväxtekonomier och utvecklingsländer biobränsleindustrin och internationell handel progressivt. Länderna arbetar även för att biobränslen ska bli ett hållbart alternativ genom att utveckla hållbarhetskriterier. Den här avhandlingens mål är att adressera hållbarheten hos bioetanolproduktion från sockerrör, en av bioetanolens nyckelråvaror. Målet kommer att nås genom analyser av industrins nationella utvecklingsmiljö samt miljö- och klimatmässiga begränsningar som härstammar från den geopolitiska situationen och den ekonomiska tillväxten i landet, samt analyser av teknologier i den agro-industriella utvecklingen. De huvudsakliga metoder som använts är livscykelanalys (LCA), systemstudier och tekno-ekonomisk optimering. Avhandlingen adresserar primärt tre nyckelfrågor för att analysera hållbarheten hos bioetanolproduktion. Den första forskningsfrågan belyser hur nyckelparametrar påverkar hållbarheten hos produktion och användning av bioetanol i låginkomstländer, med fallstudien Nepal som utgångspunkt. Nettoenergi- och växthusgasbalanser identifieras som de huvudsakliga hållbarhetskriterierna för sockerrör-melass-baserad bioetanol (Artikel I och II). Livscykelstudiernas resultat visar att produktionen av bioetanol är energieffektiv sett från den mängd fossila bränslen som produktionen av förnybart bränsle krävt. Växthusgasutsläppen från produktion och förbränning av etanol är dessutom lägre än utsläppen från bensin. Studien utvärderar de socio-ekonomiska och miljö- och klimatmässiga fördelarna med produktion och användning av etanol i Nepal. Slutsatsen är att indikatorerna för hållbarhet ligger i linje med målen för hållbar utveckling (Artikel III). Bedömningen av biobränslens (melass-baserad etanol) hållbarhet i Nepal är den första studien i sitt slag för låginkomstländer. Studien motiverar dessutom en bedömning av potentialen för etanolproduktion i andra LDCs, speciellt i de afrikanska länderna söder om Sahara. Den andra forskningsfrågan kräver en kritisk utvärdering av metoderna för hur livscykelutsläpp från brasiliansk sockerrörsetanol redovisas i europeiska och amerikanska regleringar (Artikel IV). Artikeln, som påvisar likheter och skillnader mellan regionerna, visar att växthusgasutsläpp blir en mer och mer viktig del i hur hållbarhetskriterier definieras när expansionen av biobränsleproduktion och internationell handel diskuteras. Olika metoder för redovisningen av växthusgasutsläpp leder dock till mycket olika resultat och tolkningar. Det är nödvändigt att etablera en enhetlig metod för redovisning av växthusgasutsläpp för att skapa ett kriterium som möjliggör internationella jämförelser. Avhandlingen identifierar de mest beaktansvärda problemen för att etablera en enhetlig metod: N2O-utsläpp från jordbruksprocesser, tillgodoräknande av bioelektricitet inom bränsleproduktion, samt modelleringsmetoder för att uppskatta utsläpp relaterade till direkt och indirekt landanvändning (LUC och iLUC). Den tredje forskningsfrågan utreder hur industrin för sockerrörsbioetanol kan utvecklas från ett energisäkerhetsperspektiv, med speciell hänsyn till diversifieringen av energikällor. I Artikel V presenteras hur bioelektricitetsproduktion och vattenkraft kan komplettera varandra i fallen Nepal och Brasilien. Bioelektricitet skulle kunna bidra markant till tillförseln av elektricitet i båda länderna under förutsättning att de politiska och institutionella förutsättningarna är fördelaktiga. Slutligen utförs en tekno-ekonomisk studie för att identifiera den optimala teknologin för produktion av andra generationens (2G) bioetanol och/eller bioelektricitet. Studien görs för merparten av sockerrörsbioraffinaderierna i Brasilien och utgör Artikel VI. Studien tar fullskaliga livscykelkostnader i beaktande samt utsläpp och internationell handel. Studien visar att det är värt mödan att uppgradera befintliga sockerrörsbioraffinaderier. De dominerande påverkansfaktorerna för valet av teknologi och potentialen för bioetanolhandel är energipriser, typ av kraftproduktionssystem, biobränslestöd och koldioxidskatt, samt processernas effektivitet. Kortfattat behandlar den här avhandlingen bioetanolproduktionens och bioetanolindustrins hållbarhet. Avhandlingen ger insikt i dess potentiella roll för att motverka klimatförändringar, förbättra energisäkerhet samt främja hållbar utveckling i olika nationella sammanhang. Avhandlingen bidrar dessutom med metodutveckling i hur hållbarheten av biobränsleproduktion bedöms inom ramen för energi- och klimatpolicy. / <p>QC 20130813</p>

The present study presents a draft national CCT (Clean Coal Technologies) and CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) technology roadmap to policy makers. Various technical and non-technical (economic and social) challenges that currently prevent CCT and CCS from being a widely used commercial technology are discussed and the goals for each research pathway are defined. The process of creating the roadmap started with a review and assessment of the existing national and international technology roadmaps which represent a global picture of the state of the art and national and international plans for future on CCT and CCS research development, demonstration and deployment (R&amp / D&amp / D). Following this step, the national situation, capacities and priorities were examined. Finally, R&amp / D&amp / D actions discussed in the existing roadmaps and/or new actions were carefully selected and suggested as a draft Turkish CCT and CCS Roadmap that needs further development and discussion by the input of interdisciplinary national stakeholders. As a conclusion a number of technical and non-technical suggestions are delivered.

As managers of extensive vehicle fleets and transportation infrastructures, public transit agencies present unique opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. To achieve substantial and cost-effective GHG emissions reductions from their activities, public transit agencies need tools and resources that enable effective GHG emissions management. This research thesis presents the background, methodology, and results of the author's development of a public transit agency-level life cycle GHG emissions calculator. The development of the calculator involved a series of research efforts aimed at identifying and addressing the needs of transit agency GHG emissions management: a review of background information on climate change and public transit's role in mitigating climate change; a review of existing GHG emissions calculators for public transit agencies, a review of the methodologies for life cycle GHG emissions analysis; integration and adaption of existing calculation resources; development of calculator spreadsheets for estimating relevant lifecycle GHG emissions and quantifying GHG emission reduction cost-effectiveness; application of the developed calculator to a carbon footprint analysis for a typical mid-size to large-size transit agency; and application of the developed calculator to the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of various potential strategies for reducing transit agency GHG emissions. The developed calculator provides an integrative resource for quantifying GHG emissions and costs of public transit agency activities, including GHG emission reduction strategies. Further research is needed to calibrate the estimation of upstream life cycle GHG emissions, particularly for vehicle manufacture and maintenance.

The PhD thesis is composed of three chapters and discusses the policy choice under uncertainty and learning in the context of climate change.

Research on public responses to climate change mitigation policies is proliferating. Therefore, a need to critically review the existing research practice arises. Studies published over the last 15 years (n=164) and focusing on public attitudes and responses to climate policies are reviewed in this thesis with respect to a) measures and operational definitions of policy support, acceptability, acceptance, and other types of responses and b) factors related to such responses. A great diversity of measures and measured constructs, frequent lack of theoretical embedding, and conceptual vagueness are currently pervasive in the field. Such state leads to uncertainty of what is being measured, ambiguity, and greater diversity and lower comparability of results. In response to this state, the thesis proposes a construct of policy attitudes and responses as an overarching concept comprising the diversity of measures and constructs already in use, and a theoretical framework, based on the Value- Belief-Norm theory, as a heuristic tool for measurement, analysis, and interpretation of survey results. Additionally, the thesis discusses the interlinkage of public opinion on climate policies and policy-making process to argue the relevance and the role of the reviewed research. Three original studies are part of...

abstract: Energy consumption in buildings, accounting for 41% of 2010 primary energy consumption in the United States (US), is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and temperature. Past studies have assessed the impact of climate change on long-term mean and/or peak energy demands. However, these studies usually neglected spatial variations in the “balance point” temperature, population distribution effects, air-conditioner (AC) saturation, and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales, making the implications of local-scale vulnerability incomplete. Here I develop empirical relationships between building energy consumption and temperature to explore the impact of climate change on long-term mean and extremes of energy demand, and test the sensitivity of these impacts to various factors. I find increases in summertime electricity demand exceeding 50% and decreases in wintertime non-electric energy demand of more than 40% in some states by the end of the century. The occurrence of the most extreme (appearing once-per-56-years) electricity demand increases more than 2600 fold, while the occurrence of the once per year extreme events increases more than 70 fold by the end of this century. If the changes in population and AC saturation are also accounted for, the impact of climate change on building energy demand will be exacerbated. Using the individual building energy simulation approach, I also estimate the impact of climate change to different building types at over 900 US locations. Large increases in building energy consumption are found in the summer, especially during the daytime (e.g., >100% increase for warehouses, 5-6 pm). Large variation of impact is also found within climate zones, suggesting a potential bias when estimating climate-zone scale changes with a small number of representative locations. As a result of climate change, the building energy expenditures increase in some states (as much as $3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as $1.4 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly $4.7 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost (exceeding $19 billion) of adding electricity generation capacity in order to maintain the electricity grid’s reliability in summer. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Environmental Social Science 2016

Scotland’s vernacular earth-built heritage has received inadequate recognition over a number of decades, being the reserve of a small group of academic, architectural and conservation practitioners, with negative perceptions of the structures and their inhabitants having been developed over the long-term. This has ultimately contributed to the loss of a wide number of earth building traditions previously widespread across Scotland. Heritage custodians have invested in the restoration and maintenance of a select few sites, but wider recognition of the significance of extant structures, including the intangible aspects of inherited traditions, remains limited. This thesis therefore seeks in the first instance to promote improved understandings of Scotland’s earth-built heritage through historical appraisals that underline its wider heritage value within global, regional and local contexts, whilst demonstrating the limitations of survey evidence hitherto relied upon. Heritage policies and management procedures are increasingly driven in response to the climate changes projected for the remainder of the twenty-first century, partly informed by the impacts of changes that have already been observed. As a result of this, new fields of research such as heritage climatology have developed with a view to offering bases from which to develop longer term mitigation and management strategies that recognise potential changes to the causes and processes of deterioration in the historic environment. Alongside the development of academic interest in climate and heritage has been an ever-increasing accessibility to advanced analysis methods through technical apparatus (often portable) that can be used to create improved evidence repositories based on processes-led approaches to investigation. Scotland’s earth-built heritage is susceptible to a range of climate-related phenomena that are likely to manifest in different ways over coming decades. Conservation strategies have continued to rely, however, upon the empirical observations and the experience of very few individuals since the latter-twentieth century. Consequently, the ad hoc approaches to the management of Scotland’s earth-built heritage and lack of strategic planning that have been typical to this point require amendment. This interdisciplinary thesis therefore seeks to contribute to addressing the issues outlined above through the exploration and application of portable scientific sampling apparatus that allow for in situ, rapid and non-intrusive insights to be gained at various scales of interest. These, together with other minimally intrusive approaches to assessing performance in earth building materials, allow for the development of processes-led strategies to extending the evidence base beyond that presently relied upon. Amongst the key outcomes of this are the generation of a locally-focused dataset of climate projections that are used to develop understandings of future climate conditions in the Carse of Gowrie, Perthshire, and in turn garner insights as to how these will impact in relation to the earth-built heritage for which this region is noted. Temperature and humidity monitoring evidence gathered from within the walls of extant structures over the course of fourteen months from March 2012 to April 2013 are set against contemporary external weather conditions and alongside measurements of moisture ingress. These serve to highlight both aspects of inherent resilience and points of particular risk to the future integrity of earth-built structures. An extended benefit of this work is the demonstration that the novel procedures used are easily replicated and could be employed in a variety of local contexts to develop suites of intra-site data across Scotland, with the potential for offering evidence-based inferences relevant to management procedures and policy discussion. The utility of the understandings and methods of investigation long established in the field of soil science but conspicuously overlooked in earth buildings research is also addressed, with insights into micro-scale processes offered using micromorphological and micromorphometric methods and the results being directly related to macro-scale observations.