Behavioural economics has established that cognitive biases such as the overconfidence bias impact managerial decision-making. Literature has also shown that different levels of management require different skills, values and decision-making processes and styles. It would likely follow that cognitive biases would impact different levels of management in varying ways. This research seeks to expand on current literature in drawing on principles of behavioural economics to further investigate the overconfidence bias and its relationship with different levels of management. This research also seeks to explore whether cognitive ability or reflection can further explain any relationship between overconfidence and level of management. A sample of managers at professional services firms was surveyed using various assessments of overconfidence. Utilising statistical techniques, it was found that in fact there were differences in overconfidence between levels of management. Specifically, middle management appeared to display different overconfidence tendencies than upper and lower management levels. The relationship between cognitive ability, level of management and the overconfidence bias also appeared to be significant enough to warrant further investigation. The results also showed insight into problems with the current definitions of overconfidence. Based on the findings, this study concludes by providing several business and academic recommendations. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

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Titel: Mind the Gap: Generations at Risk Författare: Samuel Hansson och Fabian Stenseth Handledare: Zahida Sarwary  Bakgrund: Efter en tid av positiv avkastning har förändringar i omvärlden lett till ökad inflation. Investerare från Generation Z upplever sin första tid på börsen i en ekonomisk oro, medan Generation X upplever det igen efter finanskraschen 2008. Dessa generationers riskbenägenhet vid finansiella beslut har inte kunnat kartläggas i modern tid, och därmed har en kunskapslucka identifieras.     Syfte: Studien ämnar undersöka och kategorisera riskbenägenhet utifrån börspsykologiska faktorer mellan Generation X (personer födda 1965–1980) och Generation Z (personer födda 1997–2012), där investerarna har en eftergymnasial utbildning inom ekonomi.  Metod: Studien har tillämpat en kvantitativ metod, bestående av en deduktiv ansats. Empiriska data har utförts via en enkätundersökning och ett slumpmässigt urval. Empirin bestod av 105 användbara svar, varav 46 svar från Generation X och 59 svar från Generation Z. Empiriska data analyserades utifrån deskriptiv statistik, t-tester, korrelationsmatris, samt multipel linjär regressionsanalys.  Resultat: Analysen redovisade en signifikant positiv samvariation mellan generationerna vid olika börspsykologiska faktorer, där mental accounting påverkade Generation X och överkonfidens påverkade Generation Z.  Slutsats: Studiens resultat påvisade en positiv signifikant samvariation för Generation Z gällande överkonfidens, vilket innebär att högre överkonfidens leder till en högre riskbenägenhet. För Generation X påvisades en positiv signifikant samvariation för mental accounting, vilket leder till en högre riskbenägenhet.  Nyckelord: Behavioral finance, investment, mental accounting, herding bias, overconfidence, financial literacy, cognitive reflection ability / Title: Mind the Gap: Generations at Risk Authors: Samuel Hansson and Fabian Stenseth Supervisor: Zahida Sarwary  Background: After a period of positive returns, changes in the environment have led to increased inflation. Investors from Generation Z are experiencing their first time in the stock market during economic uncertainty, while Generation X is experiencing it again after the 2008 financial crisis. The risk propensity of these generations in financial decision-making has not been adequately studied in modern times, creating a gap in knowledge. Purpose: The study aims to examine and categorize risk propensity based on behavioral finance factors between Generation X (individuals born between 1965 and 1980) and Generation Z (individuals born between 1997 and 2012), with investors having a post-secondary education in finance and economics. Methodology: The study applied a quantitative method with a deductive approach. Empirical data was collected through a survey and random sampling, resulting in 105 usable responses of which 46 respondents from Generation X and 59 respondents from Generation Z. The empirical data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, correlation matrices, and multiple linear regression analysis. Results: The analysis revealed a significant positive association between the generations in various behavioral finance factors, with the risk propensity being affected by mental accounting for Generation X and overconfidence for Generation Z. Conclusion: The study's results demonstrated a significant positive association for Generation Z regarding overconfidence, indicating that higher overconfidence leads to a greater risk propensity. For Generation X, a significant positive association was found for mental accounting, which also leads to a higher risk propensity. Key words: Behavioral finance, investment, mental accounting, herding bias, overconfidence, financial literacy, cognitive reflection ability

Heuristic estimates of probabilities may be an obstacle to decision making within High Reliability Organizations. Accident reports have found that two from each other separate phenomenon, Blame Culture and Type 1 processing constitutes a particularily serious threat to decision making. The present study (N = 70) investigated if a perceived risk of negative feedback and cognitive load would lead to more heuristic estimates on the Conjunction Fallacy. Three experiment conditions were included in the study: Negative feedback, cognitive load and control. The results were non-significant for both negative feedback and cognitive load. Furthermore, the estimated negative affect was higher when violations to the Conjunction Rule was made. Previous studies showing that high scores on the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) indicate less sensitivity to conjunction fallacies, were replicated. The present study concluded that the CRT may be a strong predictor of the Conjunction Fallacy.

Submitted by Leonardo Barcellos (lpbarcellos@gmail.com) on 2017-06-20T00:02:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Final version - Dissertation paper - Leonardo Barcellos.pdf: 2615722 bytes, checksum: c5b3c3f34e1c9b8347aec530d34e7f74 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-06-21T16:00:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Final version - Dissertation paper - Leonardo Barcellos.pdf: 2615722 bytes, checksum: c5b3c3f34e1c9b8347aec530d34e7f74 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-05T12:25:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Final version - Dissertation paper - Leonardo Barcellos.pdf: 2615722 bytes, checksum: c5b3c3f34e1c9b8347aec530d34e7f74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-07 / This dissertation paper gathers three studies on the relationship between accounting practice and certified public accountants’ (CPAs) cognitive reflection abilities (CR-ability). The first chapter summarizes the three studies, presenting contextual information about how the research ideas and identification strategies relate to my doctoral studies. The study in the second chapter maps Brazilian CPAs’ CR-abilities to demographic characteristics, providing not only the foundational insights for the studies in the next chapters but also evidence that male and younger CPAs tend to present higher CR-abilities than female and older CPAs, as well as that employer firm size may determine CR-abilities of preparers and managers. The study in the third chapter applies a quasi-experimental approach to examine whether auditing practice is more likely to prevent CR-abilities decline than financial reports elaboration practice. The paper explores the unique counterfactual opportunity provided by the accounting setting to find that aging leads human beings to adapt information processing strategies towards Type 1 of reasoning in detriment of Type 2. But auditing practice may curb this trend. These findings make several contributions to psychology and accounting fields. The paper in the fourth chapter examines the influence of stable CPAs’ individual characteristics, i.e., CR-ability and professional experience in pressured firms, on the professional judgments behind the recognition of assets and cash flows arising from audiovisual content (AV-content). The findings suggest that CR-ability drives differential AV-content assets and cash flows classification at recognition and, ultimately, incomparable financial statements, but professional experience in pressured firms is likely to refrain such differences in the case of assets. Finally, I present my concluding remarks in the fifth chapter.

Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. The present thesis investigated the relations between three psychological factors and performance on conjunction tasks after reading such a hint. The factors represent the understanding of probability and statistics (statistical numeracy), the ability to resist intuitive but incorrect conclusions (cognitive reflection), and the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking (need-for-cognition). Participants (n = 50) answered 30 short conjunction tasks and three psychological scales. A bimodal response distribution motivated dichotomization of performance scores. Need-for-cognition was significantly, positively correlated with performance, while numeracy and cognitive reflection were not. The results suggest that the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking plays an important role for the capacity to avoid the conjunction fallacy after taking a hint. The hint further seems to neutralize differences in performance otherwise predicted by statistical numeracy and cognitive reflection. / Människor begår ofta det så kallade ”konjuktionsfelslutet”, genom att felaktigt bedöma sannolikheten för sammanträffandet av två händelser som större än sannolikheten för en av händelserna. Vissa typer av ledtrådar har visat sig mildra denna tendens. Denna uppsats undersökte relationerna mellan tre psykologiska faktorer och prestation på konjunktionsuppgifter efter att ha läst en sådan ledtråd. Faktorerna motsvarade förståelsen för sannolikhet och statistik (statistisk räknefärdighet, eng., statistical numeracy), förmågan att motstå intuitiva men felaktiga slutsatser, (kognitiv reflektion, eng., cognitive reflection), samt viljan och lusten till analytiskt tänkande (behov-av-tänkande, eng., need-for-cognition). Deltagare (n = 50) besvarade 30 korta konjunktionsuppgifter och tre psykologiska mätskalor. En bimodal svarsfördelning motiverade dikotomisering av resultaten. Behov-av-tänkande var signifikant, positivt korrelerat med prestation, vilket varken räknefärdighet eller kognitiv reflektion var. Resultaten tyder på att viljan och lusten till analytiskt tänkande spelar en viktig roll i förmågan att undvika konjunktionsfelslutet efter att ha fått en ledtråd. Ledtråden verkar också neutralisera skillnader i prestation som annars uppstår på grund av räknefärdighet och kognitiv reflektion.

Behavioral operations management (BOM) has gained popularity in the last two decades. The main theme in this new stream of research is to include the human behavior in Operations Management (OM) models to increase the effectiveness of such models. BOM is classified into 4 areas: cognitive psychology, social psychology, group dynamics and system dynamics (Bendoly et al. 2010). This dissertation will focus on the first class, namely cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology is further classified into heuristics and biases. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discussed 3 heuristics and 13 cognitive biases that usually face decision makers. This dissertation is going to study 6 cognitive biases under the representativeness heuristic. The model in this dissertation states that cognitive reflection of the individual (Frederick 2005) and training about cognitive biases in the form of warning (Kaufmann and Michel 2009) will help decisions’ makers make less biased decisions. The 6 cognitive biases investigated in this dissertation are insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance, insensitivity to predictability, the illusion of validity and misconception of regression. 6 scenarios in OM contexts have been used in this study. Each scenario corresponds to one cognitive bias. Experimental design has been used as the research tool. To see the impact of training, one group of the participants received the scenarios without training and the other group received them with training. The training consists of a brief description of the cognitive bias as well as an example of the cognitive bias. Cognitive reflection is operationalized using cognitive reflection test (CRT). The survey was distributed to students at University of North Texas (UNT). Logistic regression has been employed to analyze data. The research shows that participants show the cognitive biases proposed by Tversky and Kahneman. Moreover, CRT is significant factor to predict the cognitive bias in two scenarios. Finally, providing training in terms of warning helps participants to make more rational decisions in 4 scenarios. This means that although cognitive biases are inherent in the mind of people, management of corporations has the tool to educate its managers and professionals about such biases which helps companies make more rational decisions.

Generation Z har under sin korta tid som investerare på den finansiella marknaden varit med om en säregen börskrasch till följd av coronapandemin 2020. Börskraschen 2020 var unik i förhållande till tidigare börskrascher såsom IT-kraschen 2000 och finanskrisen 2008 eftersom marknaden återhämtade sig och nådde nya rekordnivåer inom ett halvår. Samtidigt stod svenska investerare under de första månaderna av 2022 inför ett nytt ras där den genomsnittliga aktien på Stockholmsbörsen sjunkit med ungefär 36% från dess högsta nivå under perioden 2020–2022 till följd av en hög inflationstakt samt Rysslands invasion av Ukraina. Forskningen kring den yngsta gruppen investerare, generation Z, som saknar erfarenhet av långvariga osäkra marknadsförhållanden är bristfällig och ger därmed upphov till en ny grupp investerare att studera. Studiens syfte är att studera hur riskbenägenhet samvarierar med börspsykologiska bias, kognitiv reflektionsförmåga och erfarenhet från tidigare finansiella kriser samt hur dessa faktorer skiljer sig mellan generation Z och tidigare generationer. Studien finner att generation Z till större del faller för samtliga börspsykologiska bias förutom överreaktion och visar på ett flertal signifikanta skillnader mellan generation Z och äldre generationer. Resultatet visar även att anchoring och konfirmeringsbiassamvarierar signifikant med riskbenägenhet och att den största skillnaden mellan generation Z och äldre generationer kan hänföras till börspsykologiska bias. / Generation Z has during their short time as investors experienced a market crash due to the covid-pandemic in 2020 but also a quick recovery in the same year where the market reached a new all-time high. The market crash in 2020 was unique compared to the crash following the burst of the Dot-com bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008 because of the quick recovery of the stock market that led to new all-time highs. However, during the first months of 2022, Swedish investors were once again experiencing a market crash where the average stock on the Stockholm stock exchange had lost more than 36% of its value since their peak between 2020-2022 due to high inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The youngest group of investors, generation Z, lacks experience from long-lasting uncertainties in the stock market. Research regarding generation Z is insufficient which gives rise to a new group of investors to study. The purpose of the thesis is to study the relationship between risk tolerance and psychological biases, cognitive reflection and experience from previous stock market crashes and how these factors differ between generation Z and older generations. The thesis finds that generation Z is indicated to be more affected by every psychological bias except overreaction and finds several significant differences between generation Z and the older generations. The result also shows that confirmation bias and anchoring have a significant relationship to risk tolerance and that the largest differences between generation Z and older generations are derived from psychological biases.