This dissertation can be broadly divided into two independent parts. The first three chapters analyse issues related to temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of econometric models. The fourth chapter contains an application of Bayesian techniques to investigate whether the post transition fiscal policy of Poland is sustainable in the long run and consistent with an intertemporal budget constraint. Chapter 1 surveys the econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for a wide range of univariate and multivariate time series models. A unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes is presented in the first part of the chapter and the main results are summarized. In each case, assuming to know the underlying process at the disaggregate frequency, the aim is to find the appropriate model for the aggregated data. Additional topics concerning temporal aggregation of ARIMA-GARCH models (see Drost and Nijman, 1993) are discussed and several examples presented. Systematic sampling schemes are also reviewed. Multivariate models, which show interesting features under temporal aggregation (Breitung and Swanson, 2002, Marcellino, 1999, Hafner, 2008), are examined in the second part of the chapter. In particular, the focus is on temporal aggregation of VARMA models and on the related concept of spurious instantaneous causality, which is not a time series property invariant to temporal aggregation. On the other hand, as pointed out by Marcellino (1999), other important time series features as cointegration and presence of unit roots are invariant to temporal aggregation and are not induced by it. Some empirical applications based on macroeconomic and financial data illustrate all the techniques surveyed and the main results. Chapter 2 is an attempt to monitor fiscal variables in the Euro area, building an early warning signal indicator for assessing the development of public finances in the short-run and exploiting the existence of monthly budgetary statistics from France, taken as "example country". The application is conducted focusing on the cash State deficit, looking at components from the revenue and expenditure sides. For each component, monthly ARIMA models are estimated and then temporally aggregated to the annual frequency, as the policy makers are interested in yearly predictions. The short-run forecasting exercises carried out for years 2002, 2003 and 2004 highlight the fact that the one-step-ahead predictions based on the temporally aggregated models generally outperform those delivered by standard monthly ARIMA modeling, as well as the official forecasts made available by the French government, for each of the eleven components and thus for the whole State deficit. More importantly, by the middle of the year, very accurate predictions for the current year are made available. The proposed method could be extremely useful, providing policy makers with a valuable indicator when assessing the development of public finances in the short-run (one year horizon or even less). Chapter 3 deals with the issue of forecasting contemporaneous time series aggregates. The performance of "aggregate" and "disaggregate" predictors in forecasting contemporaneously aggregated vector ARMA (VARMA) processes is compared. An aggregate predictor is built by forecasting directly the aggregate process, as it results from contemporaneous aggregation of the data generating vector process. A disaggregate predictor is a predictor obtained from aggregation of univariate forecasts for the individual components of the data generating vector process. The econometric framework is broadly based on Lütkepohl (1987). The necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of mean squared errors associated with the two competing methods in the bivariate VMA(1) case is provided. It is argued that the condition of equality of predictors as stated in Lütkepohl (1987), although necessary and sufficient for the equality of the predictors, is sufficient (but not necessary) for the equality of mean squared errors. Furthermore, it is shown that the same forecasting accuracy for the two predictors can be achieved using specific assumptions on the parameters of the VMA(1) structure. Finally, an empirical application that involves the problem of forecasting the Italian monetary aggregate M1 on the basis of annual time series ranging from 1948 until 1998, prior to the creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), is presented to show the relevance of the topic. In the empirical application, the framework is further generalized to deal with heteroskedastic and cross-correlated innovations. Chapter 4 deals with a cointegration analysis applied to the empirical investigation of fiscal sustainability. The focus is on a particular country: Poland. The choice of Poland is not random. First, the motivation stems from the fact that fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the economies of Eastern Europe. Second, this is one of the first countries to start the transition process to a market economy (since 1989), providing a relatively favorable institutional setting within which to study fiscal sustainability (see Green, Holmes and Kowalski, 2001). The emphasis is on the feasibility of a permanent deficit in the long-run, meaning whether a government can continue to operate under its current fiscal policy indefinitely. The empirical analysis to examine debt stabilization is made up by two steps. First, a Bayesian methodology is applied to conduct inference about the cointegrating relationship between budget revenues and (inclusive of interest) expenditures and to select the cointegrating rank. This task is complicated by the conceptual difficulty linked to the choice of the prior distributions for the parameters relevant to the economic problem under study (Villani, 2005). Second, Bayesian inference is applied to the estimation of the normalized cointegrating vector between budget revenues and expenditures. With a single cointegrating equation, some known results concerning the posterior density of the cointegrating vector may be used (see Bauwens, Lubrano and Richard, 1999). The priors used in the paper leads to straightforward posterior calculations which can be easily performed. Moreover, the posterior analysis leads to a careful assessment of the magnitude of the cointegrating vector. Finally, it is shown to what extent the likelihood of the data is important in revising the available prior information, relying on numerical integration techniques based on deterministic methods.

Intrusive thoughts are aversive, private thoughts that are unwanted but intrude into consciousness, and are a ubiquitous phenomenon that approximately 93% of the population experiences (Radomsky et. al., 2014). Obsessional thoughts are a key etiological component of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Cognitive behavioral models of OCD conceptualize intrusive thoughts and obsessive thoughts as the same phenomenon occurring on a spectrum, with obsessional thoughts being a particular type of intrusion that is integral to the development and maintenance of OCD (Moulding, 2014). However, there is little evidence to demonstrate this relationship. This study examined intrusive thoughts across stratified groups based on intrusion frequency using ecological momentary assessment. This exploratory study examined potential idiographic differences in reported experiences of people ranging from low to high levels of intrusive thought frequency. Personalized contemporaneous networks were constructed from participant data and examined for differences in topography, measures of centrality, and magnitude of relationships between nodes. These networks are visually distinct, providing a glimpse into a wide variety of ways in which participants experience and relate to their intrusive thoughts.

A investigação deste Trabalho consiste em um estudo sobre o diálogo entre o design e a arte na sociedade de consumo contemporânea, denominada como hiperconsumidora. Neste contexto, o produto industrializado tece um diálogo com a atividade artística por meio de associações, cada vez mais comuns, entre o universo da arte e grandes marcas e corporações. Procuramos introduzir este assunto por meio de um percurso histórico do período moderno até o contemporâneo, destacando os momentos mais relevantes em que o diálogo entre design e arte contribuiu para o desenvolvimento dos produtos industrializados. Com o intuito de contextualizar este diálogo em fases, tomamos quatro valores atribuídos às mercadorias: uso, troca, posse e seleção. Enquanto os valores de uso e troca se apresentaram como característicos dos primeiros momentos da civilização de consumo, o surgimento dos valores de posse e seleção são reflexos do hipercosumo, que se desenvolveu no decorrer das últimas quatro décadas. Em específico, o valor de seleção dos objetos nos serviu como fundamento para nossas considerações sobre as relações entre o universo da arte e as grandes marcas. Nesse contexto, o valor de seleção representou a ênfase da indústria no consumidor que, na contemporaneidade, é capaz de articular as informações que lhe vêm das características dos mais diversos produtos e serviços em acordo com suas necessidades e desejos. Assim, num mercado consumidor cujo acirramento da concorrência é cada vez maior, verificamos o emprego de ações que criem diferenciais que sejam únicos e inovadores e que contribuam na construção de valores junto às marcas e produtos. Para tanto, notamos a utilização de alguns recursos, que vão desde o investimento na qualidade estética dos produtos e ambientes, até o emprego de ações envolvendo festivais, intervenções e exposições de arte. Ao considerarmos que verificar estas novas relações consistia em explorar o sistema que as envolve, analisamos o sistema de arte moderna: o Regime de Consumo, como fundamento e, em seguida, a sua transposição para o Regime de Comunicação, o sistema de arte contemporânea. Desta feita, verificamos como o Regime de Comunicação se sustenta no circuito em rede, que é ampliado pelas novas tecnologias da comunicação e é capaz de assegurar o diálogo com as marcas e produtos industrializados. / This works investigation is based on a study that covers the dialog between design and art on the contemporaneous consumer society, known as hyper-consumer. Within this theory, processed products compose a dialog with artistic activity that goes through associations, more usual by the second, among art universe and big brands and companies. We tried to introduce this issue showing the historical path from modern to contemporary periods, highlighting the most relevant moments in which the dialog between design and art contributed to processed products development. In order to bring these dialogs into words, four attributed values to these commodities were adopted: usage, exchange, ownership and selection. While usage and exchange appeared as typical on primary moments of this consumer period, ownership and selection were born from the hyper-consumer era, which has expanded in the past four decades. More specifically, the object selections value was the foundation of our thoughts about the relationship between art universe and big brands. The selection value in this context represented how much emphasis the company is able to apply on its consumer, who nowadays, is capable of vary its needs and process the information that comes from the most different products and services properties. Therefore, on a consumer market in which competition is more and more fearless, we could observe some actions that can be applied in order to create uniqueness and innovation and contribute to build values along with brands and products. To that end, weve been observing some resources that go from products and environments esthetic quality investments to different actions adopted in order to gather artistic activity like concerts, celebrations and shows. As we realized that verifying those new relationships were based on explore the system that surrounds them, we could analyze the modern art system: the Consuming Regime, as the foundation, and then its conversion to the Communication Regime, a contemporaneous art system. From this moment on, we verified how the Communication Regime remains in the net circuit, which is enlarged by new communication technologies and is able to assure the dialog between brands and processed products.

O exame da narrativa ficcional permite a abordagem, para além do universo da teoria literária, de questões discursivas que refletem índices históricos, sociológicos e antropológicos, dentre os quais a construção da identidade de gênero. Neste sentido, o instrumental psicanalítico favorece a análise do sistema de referentes que constitui a feminilidade. Interessa, aqui, refletir acerca da feminilidade contemporânea inserida no contexto português do período ditatorial e construída discursivamente no período pós-revolucionário. Tal feminilidade apresenta-se avessa, muitas vezes, aos valores sedimentados no pensamento ocidental judaicocristão, que atribuem à mulher uma posição inferior, passiva e no limite castrada. Ao enfocar personagens femininas presentes em alguns exemplares da prosa portuguesa das últimas três décadas, pretende-se localizar um outro paradigma, que corre à margem dos padrões sociais vigentes: o da mulher libertária, independente, ativa, enfim, que rompe o compromisso com as regras da família, sociedade e religião. Cabe observar que quatro das personagens ora abordadas são discursivamente constituídas a partir de uma perspectiva masculina, tanto do ponto de vista do foco narrativo, quanto do ponto de vista autoral. O contraponto se dá com a escolha de uma personagem feminina fruto da perspectiva autoral feminina. Para a realização da abordagem proposta, são percorridos cinco romances, a saber: Balada da Praia dos cães e Alexandra Alpha, de José Cardoso Pires, Vícios e Virtudes e Pedro e Paula, de Helder Macedo e A Costa dos Murmúrios, de Lidia Jorge. / The investigation of fictional narrative leads to an approach beyond the universe of literary theory, discursive issues representing historical, sociological and anthropological insights, among which the genre identity may be cited. In this way, the psychoanalytical tools enable the analysis of the referring systems which constitute the femininity. This work reflects upon the contemporaneous femininity which has been inserted in the Portuguese context within the dictatorship period, and built up discursively in a post-revolutionary era. Most times this femininity proves itself to be contrary to the moral values established by the western Jewish Christian thoughts; such values set women mostly to an inferior, passive, submissive and castrated position. By focusing on female characters in the Portuguese prose from the last three decades, another paradigm is brought up, mainly sideways to the imposed common social patterns: the libertarian, active and independent woman is brought to life, the one who breaks away from rules imposed by family, society and religion. It is relevant to observe that four of such characters are discursively constituted from a male perspective, within the narrative and authorial focus. The counterpoint is set in the choice of a female character, based on a feminine authorial perspective. For this proposed approach to take place, five novels have been fully taken into consideration: Ballad of Dogs Beach and Alexandra Alpha, from José Cardoso Pires, Virtue and Vices and Peter and Paula, by Helder Macedo and The Murmuring Coast, by Lidia Jorge.

A presente pesquisa, intitulada A Captura da Paisagem: entre apreensões fotográficas por câmera obscura e registros sonoros, analisa os procedimentos de instauração do trabalho A Captura da Paisagem, abarcando as questões que emergem das práticas com câmeras obscuras fotográficas. Neste contexto, são investigadas as relações conceituais e teóricas envolvidas nas ações de apreensão e registro espaço-temporal que ocorrem nesta produção, que envolvem longas durações nas obtenções fotográficas, bem como a simultânea gravação de registros sonoros. Além disto, a pesquisa trata das questões imbricadas nas possibilidades de junção de tais elementos dentro das proposições de apresentação do trabalho. / The present research, entitled Capture of the landscape: between photographic apprehensions through camera obscura and sonorous records, analyzes the procedures for the instauration of the work Capture of the Landscape, including questions emerging from the practice with camera obscura photography. In this context, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in the actions of time-space apprehension and recording that occur in this production are investigated. They involve photographic attainments of long duration as well as the simultaneous recording of sonorous registries. In addition, this research deals with the questions involved in the possibilities of junction of such elements within the presentation propositions of this work.

The purpose of this study is to investigate how different incentive contracts that include forward-looking and contemporaneous goals motivate managers to make decisions consistent with the organization’s long-term objectives, in tasks of varying complexity. Two research questions are addressed. First, in a long-term horizon setting, how do incentive contracts based on various combinations of forward-looking and contemporaneous measures influence decisions? Second, how does task complexity influence the expected effect of various incentive contracts on management decisions? I address my research questions using a multi-period experiment where I compare the effects of three different incentive structure types and two different levels of task complexity. Results show that in a low complexity task, individuals perform better when only contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded in the incentive contract than when both forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded. In a high complexity task, individuals perform better when both contemporaneous and forward-looking goal attainment is rewarded, but only when the contemporaneous goal attainment is weighted more heavily in the incentive contract. My research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, this is the first study of which I am aware that compares the performance effects of long-term incentive contracts that reward forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment. Second, this study is the first of which I am aware to experimentally test incentive contracts, for employees with a long-term horizon, that incorporate various weightings of forward-looking measures in the contract. In addition, this study will be amongst the first to examine the impact of task complexity on incentive contract effectiveness.

The purpose of this study is to investigate how different incentive contracts that include forward-looking and contemporaneous goals motivate managers to make decisions consistent with the organization’s long-term objectives, in tasks of varying complexity. Two research questions are addressed. First, in a long-term horizon setting, how do incentive contracts based on various combinations of forward-looking and contemporaneous measures influence decisions? Second, how does task complexity influence the expected effect of various incentive contracts on management decisions? I address my research questions using a multi-period experiment where I compare the effects of three different incentive structure types and two different levels of task complexity. Results show that in a low complexity task, individuals perform better when only contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded in the incentive contract than when both forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded. In a high complexity task, individuals perform better when both contemporaneous and forward-looking goal attainment is rewarded, but only when the contemporaneous goal attainment is weighted more heavily in the incentive contract. My research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, this is the first study of which I am aware that compares the performance effects of long-term incentive contracts that reward forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment. Second, this study is the first of which I am aware to experimentally test incentive contracts, for employees with a long-term horizon, that incorporate various weightings of forward-looking measures in the contract. In addition, this study will be amongst the first to examine the impact of task complexity on incentive contract effectiveness.

Motor vehicle crashes have increasingly become a serious concern for highway safety engineers and transportation agencies over the past few decades. This serious concern has led to a great deal of research activities. One of these activities is to develop safety analysis tools, specifically crash prediction models, for the purpose of reducing crashes and enhancing highway safety.Crash prediction models based on statistical or econometric modeling techniques are used for a variety of purposes; most commonly to estimate the expected crash frequencies from various roadway entities (highways, intersections, interstates, etc.) and also to identify geometric, environmental, and operations factors that are associated with crashes. A comprehensive review of prior literature indicates that many researchers have mainly focused on the development of aggregate crash prediction models based on single equation estimation techniques to identify the influences of geometric, environmental, and traffic variables on a single counted outcome. In some cases, however, more than one dependent variable might be of interest and hence several equations are formulated at the same time. Such a multiple equation structure may require simultaneous (or joint) estimation techniques under some situations.This dissertation research develops simultaneous estimation approaches to account for contemporaneous correlation and endogeneity problems in crash data. Specifically, seemingly unrelated negative binomial models and simultaneous equation models are developed to account for contemporaneous correlation between the disturbance terms across crash type models and to control for the endogenous relationship between the presence of left-turn lanes and angle crashes.Modeling crash types may provide certain advantages to gain insights as to 1) identification of high-risk sites with respect to specific types of crashes, which is not revealed through crash totals, and 2) the differences between conditions that lead to various crash types, but the disturbance terms across crash types might be contemporaneously correlated due to the unobserved common characteristics. Therefore, individual and simultaneous crash type models were estimated and the results of both models were compared. The results showed that a simultaneous estimation approach provides more efficient estimators relative to a single equation estimation technique.The presence of left-turn lanes has been treated as exogenous in crash prediction models, but in fact they are affecting each other. The bi-directional relationship between left-turn lanes and crashes results in endogeneity. This research investigated the endogenous relationship between left-turn lanes and crashes and developed simultaneous equation models to control for the endogeneity. The findings indicated that the presence of left-turn lanes is endogenously associated with crashes and the real effect of left-turn lanes on crashes can be obtained by controlling for endogeneity.

A presente pesquisa, intitulada A Captura da Paisagem: entre apreensões fotográficas por câmera obscura e registros sonoros, analisa os procedimentos de instauração do trabalho A Captura da Paisagem, abarcando as questões que emergem das práticas com câmeras obscuras fotográficas. Neste contexto, são investigadas as relações conceituais e teóricas envolvidas nas ações de apreensão e registro espaço-temporal que ocorrem nesta produção, que envolvem longas durações nas obtenções fotográficas, bem como a simultânea gravação de registros sonoros. Além disto, a pesquisa trata das questões imbricadas nas possibilidades de junção de tais elementos dentro das proposições de apresentação do trabalho. / The present research, entitled Capture of the landscape: between photographic apprehensions through camera obscura and sonorous records, analyzes the procedures for the instauration of the work Capture of the Landscape, including questions emerging from the practice with camera obscura photography. In this context, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in the actions of time-space apprehension and recording that occur in this production are investigated. They involve photographic attainments of long duration as well as the simultaneous recording of sonorous registries. In addition, this research deals with the questions involved in the possibilities of junction of such elements within the presentation propositions of this work.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A partir do pequeno livro Os caminhos do Conhecer, publicado em 1981 pela Editora Noa Noa, esta dissertação procurou analisar os principais aspectos da obra da poeta Angela Melim, tal como pensar sua escrita, com relação à poesia contemporânea brasileira. Primeiramente, traçamos um breve panorama do contexto no qual surgiu a poeta, os ávidos anos 70, para em seguida entender o que foi a poesia marginal e qual relação Melim manteve com ela. Detivemo-nos, depois, na leitura e análise de Os caminhos do Conhecer e nas importantes questões que ele suscita, como, por exemplo, a relação entre sujeito e paisagem, o feminino na literatura, o tempo e o espaço literários, o ritmo, o gênero do texto etc. Usamos, para tal, os conceitos de (des)limites entre poesia e prosa (a partir de Agamben e de Masé Lemos), de gênero (segundo Derrida), de outramento (Evando Nascimento), de tempo (Maurice Blanchot), entre outros / From the small book Os caminhos do Conhecer, published at 1981 by Editora Noa Noa, this dissertation tried to analyze the main aspects from the work of Angela Melim, such as thinking of your write, with relation to brazilian contemporaneous poetry. Firstly we trace a short panorama of the context in which the poetess raised, the avid 70s, in order to understand what were the marginal poetry and what relation Melim maintained with it. We detain ourselves, later, to the reading and analysis of Os caminhos do Conhecer and to the issues it evokes, such as the relation between the subject and the landscape, the feminine in literature, the literary time and space, the rhythm and the gender of the text. We used, for such, the concepts of limit(less) between poetry and prose (from Agamben and Masé Lemos), of gender (according to Derrida), of otherment (Evando Nascimento), of time de tempo (Maurice Blanchot), among others