Merger and collusion has become a popular and widespread activity between firms in the recent years. By doing this, firms can involve all the values which was created by their own factories to themselves. Manufacturers can not only raise their own profits but also diminish the uncertainty risk of purchasing middle material by vertical integrations. It has become a trend to integrate and collusion between firms. Vertical integrations bring more profits, but it also causes monopoly and forcing out. Vertical integrate can raise the market price, and it causes market foreclosure. As a result, the social welfare and the market competitive ability will be affected. General speaking, market foreclosure can be classified into full market foreclosure and partial market foreclosure according to the interrupting level to the middle material market. The manufactures use these two strategies to attain the highest profits. This article uses the Cournot model of oligopoly competition in successive market, and we use Cournot competition by different stages. We assumed the downstream as the price taker of middle material, and the price of final goods will be different according to the variety and substitution of the products. We figure out the appropriate final quantity and then reverse to the quantity and price of the upstream. We use Avenel and Barlet(2000) analyzing structure of successive market, and considering the most appropriate integrated forms between present and potential firms. Secondly, under a given strategy bundle, we analyze the influence between the final goods substitution and complementary to middle material market and social welfare. We found out the influence to middle material market by the choice of integrated strategy varied by substitution or complementary of final goods.

We consider a partial equilibrium Cournot-oligopolistic model in which the domestic market of two differentiated goods is served by a number of identical domestic firms and exports by foreign firms. In chapter 1, we characterize the optimality conditions with an emission standard and lump-sum tax to target the distortions, and we find the optimal instrument that targets the emission or pollution most efficiently. Through our study we find out that the use of right mix of environmental and non-environmental policy instruments could decrease emissions and increase welfare of the economy at the same time, even when there is foreign competition. Next, we introduce cross-border pollution and model pollution content tariff imposed on the imports from foreign country as one of the instruments for the domestic country in chapter 2. We first characterize the optimal values of the policy instruments and then design multilateral piecemeal policy reforms that unambiguously improve the welfare of the countries involved and reduce emissions. In chapter 3, we compare the effectiveness of two policy instruments in reducing pollution: subsidies tied to R&D and tariffs as trade barriers. Our paper shows that multilateral piecemeal policy reforms could be designed where 'carrots' in the form of tied subsidies to R&D would prove to be more beneficial than 'sticks' in the form of tariffs, in reducing the pollution and increasing the welfare for the two countries.

This dissertation consists of three essays evaluating topics in industrial organization. The first essay investigates a market structure or property regime in which a final good exists only by assembling multiple, monopoly-supplied components. In such dynamic settings, any sunk cost results in an outcome of hold-up, also known as tragedy of the anticommons. I design a model showing conditions for which two factors that reduce sunk cost, refunds and complementarities, mitigate hold-up. If the first component purchased has positive stand alone value or the first seller offers a full refund, hold-up is mitigated. My results suggest several policies that can mitigate inefficient outcomes in assembly problems, including legal requirements on full refunds, regulation on the purchasing order of components, and prohibition of price discrimination. The second essay applies Bayesian statistics to single-firm event studies used in securities litigation and antitrust investigations. Inference based on Bayesian analysis does not require an assumption of normality that potentially invalidates standard inference of classical single-firm event studies. I investigate ten events, five from actual securities litigation cases. Various Bayesian models, including replication of the frequentist approach, are examined. A flexible Bayesian model, replacing parametric likelihood functions with the empirical distribution function, also is explored. Our approach suggests an alternative, valid method for inference with easy implementation and interpretation. The third essay, motivated in the context of pharmaceutical advertising, analyzes demand rotations caused by an exogenously determined advertising parameter under Cournot oligopoly competition. We find that firms and consumers prefer extreme levels of advertising, but preferences for which extreme do not necessarily align. However, these differences can be alleviated with few or many firms in the market or cheap or expensive technologies. Therefore, advertising levels, regulated or not, might not serve consumers' best interests unless certain market attributes hold.

This thesis characterizes how a mergers profitability and efficiency are affected by its size and by its scale economy factor d in a Cournot market with linear demand and quadratic costs. Our results allow us to challenge the widely believed view among economists that mergers typically are not profitable for the insiders (merged firms). In contrast to the minimum of 80% pre-merger market share required for the insiders to be profitable in Salant, Switzer and Reynolds (1983), our model shows that mergers with much less market share are also profitable. It is worth noting that in the market with diseconomies of scale (i.e., d>0), any two-firm merger could be profitable as long as its scale economy factor is greater than the critical value which is solely determined by the market size n. Our results also allow us to provide useful implications for antitrust laws especially the horizontal merger policy. In our model, mergers with economies of scale (i.e., d>-2 and d<0) and with more than 50% combined pre-merger market share are beneficial to both public interest and merging firms. This observation implies that even monopolies in this market could contribute positively to social welfare. This result is different from what Farrell and Shapiro (1990) and Levin (1990) have obtained in their papers that only mergers with less than 50% pre-merger market share are both profitable and efficient. Although mergers generally raise price, we find that mergers can also lower price and expand output if and only if they enjoy substantial economies of scale.

This thesis characterizes how a mergers profitability and efficiency are affected by its size and by its scale economy factor d in a Cournot market with linear demand and quadratic costs. Our results allow us to challenge the widely believed view among economists that mergers typically are not profitable for the insiders (merged firms). In contrast to the minimum of 80% pre-merger market share required for the insiders to be profitable in Salant, Switzer and Reynolds (1983), our model shows that mergers with much less market share are also profitable. It is worth noting that in the market with diseconomies of scale (i.e., d>0), any two-firm merger could be profitable as long as its scale economy factor is greater than the critical value which is solely determined by the market size n. Our results also allow us to provide useful implications for antitrust laws especially the horizontal merger policy. In our model, mergers with economies of scale (i.e., d>-2 and d<0) and with more than 50% combined pre-merger market share are beneficial to both public interest and merging firms. This observation implies that even monopolies in this market could contribute positively to social welfare. This result is different from what Farrell and Shapiro (1990) and Levin (1990) have obtained in their papers that only mergers with less than 50% pre-merger market share are both profitable and efficient. Although mergers generally raise price, we find that mergers can also lower price and expand output if and only if they enjoy substantial economies of scale.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T17:17:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo5969_1.pdf: 1504936 bytes, checksum: c5647bff1c1bd1fe1a5f7cbe7319989a (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / A presente tese pretende desenvolver estudos aplicados ao setor elétrico brasileiro - SEB. Inicialmente, é feita uma revisão geral do SEB, enfocando as instituições e os agentes atuantes no setor. Em um primeiro estudo são feitas previsões para a demanda por energia elétrica no Nordeste no período 2004-2010. As previsões foram revisadas, ainda, de forma a levarem em conta o efeito do racionamento de energia elétrica ocorrido em 2001. Como resultado, os modelos ajustados apresentaram um bom poder de explicação e os valores das elasticidades foram próximos aos obtidos em outros estudos similares. Em um outro estudo, utilizou-se modelos ARIMA para previsão de preços spot de energia elétrica no Brasil. Finalmente, para analisar o potencial de exercício de poder de mercado no segmento de geração do SEB, foi utilizado o modelo de oligopólio de Cournot para analisar o impacto de variações na estrutura do setor sobre os preços de equilíbrio do mercado. Nestes termos, observou-se um maior potencial de exercício de poder de mercado em meses de menor disponibilidade de geração hidráulica. Outros fatores importantes no modelo foram a elasticidade da demanda e a estrutura do setor, em termos do número e do tamanho das firmas

In this thesis current questions regarding the functionality of liberalized electricity markets are studied addressing different topics of interest in two main directions: market power and competition policy on electricity wholesale markets, and network investments and incentive regulation. The former is studied based on the case of the German electricity market with respect to ex-post market power analysis and ex-ante remedy development. First an optimization model is designed to obtain the competitive benchmark which can be compared to the observed market outcomes between 2004 and 2006. In a second step the horizontal breaking up of dominant firms (divestiture) is simulated applying equilibrium techniques (the classical Cournot approach and the Supply Function Equilibrium approach). The later issue of transmission capacity investment is addressed by highlighting the complexity of network investments in electricity markets and by analyzing a regulatory mechanism with a two part tariff approach. The technical characteristics of power flows are combined with economic criteria and tested for different network settings.

Cette thèse étudie l’évolution des marchés du gaz naturel en Europe jusqu’en 2035 en utilisant les outils de la modélisation. Le modèle proposé, intitulé GaMMES, repose sur une description oligopolistique des marchés et ses principaux avantages sont les suivants : un niveau de détail important de la structure économique de la chaîne gazière et une prise en compte endogène des contrats de long-terme en amont ainsi que de la substitution avec les produits pétroliers et le charbon, au niveau de la demande. Dans un premier temps, nous étudions la question de la sécurité d’approvisionnement en gaz en Europe et les conditions favorables à la régulation des marchés vulnérables au risque de rupture d’approvisionnement, notamment de la part de la Russie. Trois études de cas sont proposées selon le degré de dépendance et la nature de régulation en place : le marché allemand des années 1980 et les marchés actuels de la Bulgarie et de l’Espagne. Nous étudions en particulier l’évolution des caractéristiques des marchés en fonction du risque de rupture et le type de régulation à mettre en place afin d’assurer l’optimalité du bien-être social. Ensuite, nous proposons un modèle de type systèmes dynamiques afin de prendre en compte la substitution énergétique entre le charbon, le pétrole et le gaz naturel. Notre approche permet d’estimer une nouvelle forme fonctionnelle de la fonction de demande pour le gaz naturel, qui englobe à la fois la substitution énergétique et les inerties de consommation dues aux investissements des usagers finaux. Dans un troisième temps, nous utilisons cette fonction de demande dans un modèle d’équilibre partiel des marchés du gaz naturel en Europe. Le modèle GaMMES, écrit sous forme de problème de complémentarité, représente les principaux acteurs de l’industrie du gaz naturel en considérant leurs interactions stratégiques et les pouvoirs de marchés. Il a été appliqué au marché du gaz naturel en Europe du nord-est afin d’étudier l’évolution, jusqu’en 2035, de la consommation, des prix spot, des prix et volumes long-terme, de la production et de la dépendance par rapport aux imports étrangers. Finalement, nous proposons une extension stochastique du modèle GaMMES afin d’analyser l’impact de la forte fluctuation du prix du Brent sur les marchés gaziers. Une étude économétrique a été menée afin de calculer la loi de probabilité du prix du pétrole, lorsqu’il est modélisé en tant que variable aléatoire, dans le but de construire et pondérer l’arbre des scénarii. Les résultats permettent de comprendre comment l’aléa modifie les comportements stratégiques des acteurs, notamment au niveau des contrats de long-terme. Enfin, la valeur de la solution stochastique est calculée afin de quantifier l’importance de la prise en compte des fluctuations du prix du pétrole pour chaque acteur de la chaîne. / This thesis studies the evolution of the natural gas markets in Europe, until 2035, using optimization theory tools. The model we develop, named GaMMES, is based on an oligopolistic description of the markets. Its main advantages are the following: we consider an important level of detail in the economic structure of the gas chain and we endogenously take into account long-term contracts in the upstream as well as energy substitution between gas, oil, and coal in the demand. In the first part of this thesis, we study the issue of security of supply in Europe and the conditions under which it is necessary to regulate the gas markets that are strongly dependent on foreign imports. Three case studies are then presented, regarding the level of dependence and the markets' specificities: the German gas trade of the 1980s and the current Spanish and Bulgarian markets. We study in particular the evolution of the markets' outcome as a function of the supply disruption probability and the kind of regulation to implement in order to maximize the social welfare. In the second part, we develop a system dynamics model in order to capture fuel substitution between oil, coal, and natural gas. Our approach allows one to calculate a new functional form of the demand function for natural gas that contains energy substitution and consumption inertia effects due to end-users' investments. In the third part, we take advantage of our demand function and use it in a partial equilibrium model of natural gas markets in Europe. The GaMMES model, when written as a complementarity problem, describes the principal gas chain actors as well as their strategic interactions and market power. It was applied to the northwestern European gas trade to analyze the evolution of consumption, spot and long-term contract prices and volumes, production, and natural gas dependence, until 2035. In the last part, we present a stochastic extension of the GaMMES model in order to study the impact of the strong Brent price fluctuation on the gas markets. An econometric analysis allowed us to calculate the probability law of the oil price, when taken as a random variable, in order to construct the scenario tree and estimate its weights. Our results show how uncertainty changes the strategic behavior, in particular for the long-term contracting activity. Finally, the value of the stochastic solution is calculated to quantify the importance of taking into account randomness in the optimization programs of the gas chain actors.

Submitted by Diego Piotto (dpiotto@gmail.com) on 2017-08-28T18:15:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Diego Piotto_Final.pdf: 1609250 bytes, checksum: 9c276b0e7f775c9cb47d057087a1da5a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-08-28T18:21:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Diego Piotto_Final.pdf: 1609250 bytes, checksum: 9c276b0e7f775c9cb47d057087a1da5a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-29T12:42:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Diego Piotto_Final.pdf: 1609250 bytes, checksum: 9c276b0e7f775c9cb47d057087a1da5a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-14 / O sistema elétrico brasileiro sofreu grandes mudanças em sua regulação nas últimas décadas no intuito de aumentar a eficiência de mercado baseando-se no incentivo a competição entre os agentes. O incentivo a entrada de geradores privados tem gerado resultados significativos a competição e tem provocado uma reestruturação que tem modificado a operação antes totalmente centralizada para modelos descentralizados que estimulam a competição entre agentes. O objetivo deste trabalho é, partir do artigo de Barroso Et al. (2001), onde é obtido a ação de poder de mercado em sistemas hidrotérmicos para ambiente competitivo e de mínimo custo tanto para modelo estático como modelo dinâmico, desenvolver o modelo de comportamento dos agentes para situações de colusão entre agentes price makers tanto para o modelo estático como para o dinâmico. Além disso obter as taxas de juros limites para o desvio da colusão. Será demostrado que em mercados com poucos agentes, o benefício de se desviar da colusão somente ocorre para altas taxas de desconto. Com a inclusão de maior quantidade de agentes, identifica-se que o incentivo ao desvio da colusão possui taxas descrentes. Será apresentado que para modelos acoplados no tempo o comportamento de um possível conluio fará com que os agentes sustentem o preço spot mais elevado, mesmo em períodos de baixa afluência. / The Brazilian electrical system has undergone great changes in its regulation in the last decades in order to increase the efficiency of the market based on the incentive to the competition among the agents. The incentive to the entry of private generators has generated significant results the competition and has caused a restructuring that has modified the operation before totally centralized to decentralized models that stimulate the competition between agents. The objective of this work is to analyze the market power in hydrothermal systems that is, based on thermal and hydroelectric generation, using low cost models for centralized systems and Nash Cournot model for decentralized systems both decoupled in time in order to obtain the dispatch great. The analysis extends to the strategic behavior of the agents for time coupled systems using low cost models for centralized systems and Nash Cournot model using stochastic programming resources to determine the optimal dispatch of the agents of the market. It has been shown that in markets with few agents, the benefit of diverting from collusion only occurs at high discount rates. With the inclusion of a greater number of agents, it is identified that the incentive to the deviation of collusion has unbelievable rates. It will be shown that for time-coupled models the behavior of a possible collusion will cause the agents to sustain the higher spot price, even in periods of low affluence.

Cyber attacks against companies are becoming more common as technology advances and digitalization is increasing exponentially. All Swedish insurance companies that sell cyber insurance encounter the same problem, there is not enough data to do good actuarial work. In order for the pricing procedure to improve and general knowledge of cyber insurance to increase, it has been proposed that insurance companies should share their data with each other. The goal of the thesis is to do mathematical calculations to explore data quality consequences of such a sharing regime. This thesis is based on some important assumptions and three scenarios. The most important assumptions are that there are two insurance companies forced to share all their data with each other and that they can reduce the uncertainty about their own product by investing in better data quality. In the first scenario, we assume a game between two players where they can choose how much to invest in reducing the uncertainty. In the second scenario, we assume that there is not a game, but the two insurance companies are forced to equal investments and thus have the same knowledge of their products. In the third scenario, we assume that the players are risk averse, that is, they are not willing to take high risk. The results will show how much, if any, the insurance companies should invest in the different scenarios to maximize their profits (if risk neutral) or utility (if risk averse). The results of this thesis show that in the first and second scenario, the optimal profit is reached when the insurance companies do not invest anything. In the third scenario though, the optimal investment is greater than zero, given that the companies are enough risk averse.