Net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) was measured using the eddy covariance (EC) technique at a wetland tundra-sedge fen near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada during two consecutive growing seasons (2007 and 2008). Mean daily NEE at the fen (DOY 157-254) was -3.5 (± 0.26 S.E.) g CO2 m-2 d-1 in 2007 and -4.6 (± 0.36) g CO2 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The fen was a net carbon dioxide (CO2) sink during both the 2007 and 2008 growing seasons of -343 (± 79) and -450 (± 87) g CO2 m-2, respectively. Mean air temperature during the summer (June 1-August 31) was about 1°C greater than the historical average (1971-2000) in 2007 and about 2°C greater in 2008. Growing season precipitation was 107.5 mm below normal in 2007 and 359.5 mm above normal in 2008. These data suggest that if future climate change brings warmer temperatures and near-to-above average precipitation maintaining the water table near the surface, similar subarctic ecosystems will experience increased gross ecosystem productivity enhancing CO2 sequestration during the growing season.

The eddy-covariance method was used to measure net ecosystem productivity over three adjacent fields from 2009 to 2011: two annual cropping systems (oat-canola-oat and hay-oat-fallow) recently converted from perennial cropping, and a perennial hay/pasture. We compared the management practises, determined the net carbon budget, and examined the effects of inter-annual variability. Carbon accumulation began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall at the perennial site, compared with the annual crop sites, due to a longer growing season and continual plant cover. Cumulative cropping season net ecosystem productivity at the perennial site ranged from 40 to 240 g C m^(-2) because of variable weather. Including harvest removals and manure additions, the perennial site gained 120 g carbon m^(-2) and the annual sites lost 240 and 415 g carbon m^(-2), respectively, over the 30-month period. This indicates that the annual cropping systems would decrease soil carbon at this location.

The present paper develops a procedure based on multivariate copulas for simulating multivariate non-normal data that satisfies a pre-specified covariance matrix. The covariance matrix used, can comply with a specific moment structure form (e.g., a factor analysis or a general SEM model). So the method is particularly useful for Monte Carlo evaluation of SEM models in the context of non-normal data. The new procedure for non-normal data simulation is theoretically described and also implemented on the widely used R environment. The quality of the method is assessed by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Within this context a one-sample test on the observed VC-matrix is involved. This test is robust against normality violations. This test is defined through a particular SEM setting. Finally, an example for Monte Carlo evaluation of SEM modeling of non-normal data using this method is presented. (author's abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) was measured using the eddy covariance (EC) technique at a wetland tundra-sedge fen near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada during two consecutive growing seasons (2007 and 2008). Mean daily NEE at the fen (DOY 157-254) was -3.5 (± 0.26 S.E.) g CO2 m-2 d-1 in 2007 and -4.6 (± 0.36) g CO2 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The fen was a net carbon dioxide (CO2) sink during both the 2007 and 2008 growing seasons of -343 (± 79) and -450 (± 87) g CO2 m-2, respectively. Mean air temperature during the summer (June 1-August 31) was about 1°C greater than the historical average (1971-2000) in 2007 and about 2°C greater in 2008. Growing season precipitation was 107.5 mm below normal in 2007 and 359.5 mm above normal in 2008. These data suggest that if future climate change brings warmer temperatures and near-to-above average precipitation maintaining the water table near the surface, similar subarctic ecosystems will experience increased gross ecosystem productivity enhancing CO2 sequestration during the growing season.

The eddy-covariance method was used to measure net ecosystem productivity over three adjacent fields from 2009 to 2011: two annual cropping systems (oat-canola-oat and hay-oat-fallow) recently converted from perennial cropping, and a perennial hay/pasture. We compared the management practises, determined the net carbon budget, and examined the effects of inter-annual variability. Carbon accumulation began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall at the perennial site, compared with the annual crop sites, due to a longer growing season and continual plant cover. Cumulative cropping season net ecosystem productivity at the perennial site ranged from 40 to 240 g C m^(-2) because of variable weather. Including harvest removals and manure additions, the perennial site gained 120 g carbon m^(-2) and the annual sites lost 240 and 415 g carbon m^(-2), respectively, over the 30-month period. This indicates that the annual cropping systems would decrease soil carbon at this location.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / This thesis employs survival analysis framework (Allison, 1984) and the Cox’s hazard model (Cox, 1972) to estimate the probability that a credit rating survives in its current grade at a certain forecast horizon. The Cox’s hazard model resolves some significant drawbacks of the conventional estimation approaches. It allows a rigorous testing of non-Markovian behaviours and time heterogeneity in rating dynamics. It accounts for the changes in risk factors over time, and features the time structure of probability survival estimates. The thesis estimates three stratified Cox’s hazard models, including a proportional hazard model, and two dynamic hazard models which account for the changes in macro-economic conditions, and the passage of survival time over rating durations. The estimation of these stratified Cox’s hazard models for downgrades and upgrades offers improved understanding of the impact of rating history in a static and a dynamic estimation framework. The thesis overcomes the computational challenges involved in forming dynamic probability estimates when the standard proportionality assumption of Cox’s model does not hold and when the data sample includes multiple strata. It is found that the probability of rating migrations is a function of rating history and that rating history is more important than the current rating in determining the probability of a rating change. Switching from a static estimation framework to a dynamic estimation framework does not alter the effect of rating history on the rating migration hazard. It is also found that rating history and the current rating interact with time. As the rating duration extends, the main effects of rating history and current rating variables decay. Accounting for this decay has a substantial impact on the risk of rating transitions. Downgrades are more affected by rating history and time interactions than upgrades. To evaluate the predictive performance of rating history, the Brier score (Brier, 1950) and its covariance decomposition (Yates, 1982) were employed. Tests of forecast accuracy suggest that rating history has some predictive power for future rating changes. The findings suggest that an accurate forecast framework is more likely to be constructed if non-Markovian behaviours and time heterogeneity are incorporated into credit risk models.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Farming systems can act as a source or sink of atmospheric carbon, depending on the type of culture and soil management system adopted. This thesis presents a comparative study between the data obtained from two micrometeorological stations installed on the corn crop, in order to assess the impact of two tillage systems for corn (conventional tillage-CT and no-till-NT) in net ecosystem exchange of carbon fluxes (NEE). The flux were evaluated by the method of eddy covariance (EC), during the 156 days of maize. The results show that the two systems of planting corn act as drain CO2 −C and that there is a difference in the absorption ofCO2−C between the two planting systems with a NT with higher net exchange of carbon in the ecosystem in relation to CT . The biggest difference between the systems occurs in the first half cycle of corn, and after 40 days the cultures behave as a source of CO2−C, with higher values of CT issue at this time in relation to NT, and from then culture behaves as CO2−C drain. We conducted a study on the relative role of low-frequency and turbulent processes in the nocturnal boundary layer through the analysis of two-point correlations of wind components. Noting that the low-frequency processes dominate the two-point correlations in weak wind conditions, that the vertical two-point correlations of the spanwise component are negative at the very low time scale limit and that the statistical properties of the turbulent field are preserved horizontally over distances for which the two-points correlation have already been largely reduced. / Os sistemas agrícolas podem atuar como dreno ou fonte de carbono atmosférico, dependendo do tipo da cultura e do sistema de manejo do solo adotado. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo comparativo entre os dados obtidos a partir de duas estações micrometeorológicas instaladas sobre a cultura de milho, com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto de dois sistemas de semeadura de milho (preparo convencional-PC e plantio direto-PD) na troca líquida do ecossistema dos fluxos de carbono (NEE). Os fluxos foram avaliados pelo método de covariância de vórtices turbulentos (MCV), durante o período de 156 dias da cultura do milho. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os dois sistemas de cultivo de milho atuam como dreno de C−CO2 e que a há uma diferença quanto a absorção de C−CO2 entre os dois sistemas de plantio, com o PD apresentando maior troca líquida de carbono no ecossistema em relação ao PC. A maior diferença entre os sistemas ocorre na primeira metade do ciclo da cultura do milho, sendo que nos primeiros 40 dias as culturas se comportam como fonte de C−CO2, com o PC apresentando valores maiores de emissão neste período em relação ao PD, e a partir de então a cultura se comporta como dreno de C−CO2. Realizou-se um estudo sobre o papel relativo das baixa frequências e dos processos turbulentos na camada limite noturna através da análise de correlações de dois pontos das componentes do vento. Verificando-se que os processos de baixa frequência dominam as correlações de dois ponto em condições de vento fraco, que as correlações verticais de dois pontos da componente lateral do vento são negativas no limite de escala de tempo muito baixa e que as propriedades estatísticas do campo turbulento são preservadas horizontalmente ao longo de distâncias para os quais as correlações de dois pontos já foram largamente reduzidos.

This thesis is concerned with drawing out high-level insight from otherwise complex mathematical models of physical processes. This is achieved through detailed analysis of model behaviour as constituent parameters are varied. A particular focus is the well-posedness of parameter estimation from noisy data, and its relationship to the parametric sensitivity properties of the model. Other topics investigated include the verification of model performance properties over large ranges of parameters, and the simplification of models based upon their response to parameter perturbation. Several methodologies are proposed, which account for various model classes. However, shared features of the models considered include nonlinearity, parameters with considerable scope for variability, and experimental data corrupted by significant measurement uncertainty. We begin by considering models described by systems of nonlinear ordinary differen- tial equations with parameter dependence. Model output, in this case, can only be obtained by numerical integration of the relevant equations. Therefore, assessment of model behaviour over tracts of parameter space is usually carried out by repeated model simulation over a grid of parameter values. We instead reformulate this as- sessment as an algebraic problem, using polynomial programming techniques. The result is an algorithm that produces parameter-dependent algebraic functions that are guaranteed to bound user-defined aspects of model behaviour over parameter space. We then consider more general classes of parameter-dependent model. A theoretical framework is constructed through which we can explore the duality between model sensitivity to non-local parameter perturbations, and the well-posedness of parameter estimation from significantly noisy data. This results in an algorithm that can uncover functional relations on parameter space over which model output is insensitive and parameters cannot be estimated. The methodology used derives from techniques of nonlinear optimal control. We use this algorithm to simplify benchmark models from the systems biology literature. Specifically, we uncover features such as fast-timescale subsystems and redundant model interactions, together with the sets of parameter values over which the features are valid. We finally consider parameter estimation in models that are acknowledged to im- perfectly describe the modelled process. We show that this invalidates standard statistical theory associated with uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates. Alternative theory that accounts for this situation is then developed, resulting in a computationally tractable approximation of the covariance of a parameter estimate with respect to noise-induced fluctuation of experimental data.

This thesis investigates the interplay between explanatory issues in special relativity and the theory's metaphysical foundations. Special attention is given to the 'dynamical approach' to relativity, promoted primarily by Harvey Brown and collaborators, according to which the symmetries of dynamical laws are explanatory of relativistic effects, inertial motion, and even the Minkowskian geometrical structure of a specially relativistic world. The thesis begins with a review of Einstein's 1905 introduction to special relativity, after which brief historical introductions are given for the standard 'geometrical' approach to relativity and the unorthodox 'dynamical' approach. After a critical review of recent literature on the topic, the dynamical approach is shown to be in need of a metaphysical package that would undergird the explanatory claims mentioned above. It is argued that the dynamical approach is best understood as a form of relationalism - in particular, as a relativistic form of 'regularity relationalism', promoted recently by Nick Huggett. According to this view, some portion of a world's geometrical structure actually supervenes upon the symmetries of the best-system dynamical laws for a material ontology endowed with a primitive sub-metrical structure. To explore the plausibility of this construal of the dynamical approach, a case study is carried out on solutions to the Klein-Gordon equation. Examples are found for which the field values, when purged of all spatiotemporal structure but their induced topology, are still arguably best-systematized by the Klein-Gordon equation itself. This bolsters the plausibility of the claim that some system of field values, endowed with mere sub-metrical structure, might have as its best-systems dynamical laws a (set of) Lorentz-covariant equation(s), on which Minkowski geometrical structure would supervene. The upshot is that the dynamical approach to special relativity can be defended as what might be called an ontologically and ideologically relationalist approach to Minkowski spacetime structure. The chapters refer regularly to three appendices, which include a brief introduction to topological and differentiable spaces.

学位授与大学：京都大学 ; 取得学位: 博士(工学) ; 学位授与年月日: 2007-09-25 ; 学位の種類: 新制・課程博士 ; 学位記番号: 工博第2843号 ; 請求記号: 新制/工/1418 ; 整理番号: 25528 / The unsteady buffeting forces and the gust response prediction of bridges in the atmospheric turbulent flows is recently attracted more attention due to uncertainties in both experiment and analytical theory. The correction functions such as the aerodynamic admittance function and the spatial coherence function have been supplemented to cope with limitations of the quasi-steady theory and strip one so far. Concretely, so-called single-variate quasi-steady aerodynamic admittance functions as the transfer functions between the wind turbulence and induced buffeting forces, as well as coherence of wind turbulence has been widely applied for the gust response prediction. Recent literatures, however, pointed out that the coherence of force exhibits higher than that of turbulence. These correction functions, in the other words, contain their uncertainties which are required to be more understanding. Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), known as the Karhunen-Loeve decomposition has been applied popularly in many engineering fields. Main advantage of the POD is that the multi-variate correlated random fields/processes can be decomposed and described in such simplified way as a combination of limited number of orthogonally low-order dominant eigenvectors (or turbulent modes) which is convenient and applicable for order-reduced representation, simulation of the random fields/processes such as the turbulent fields, turbulent-induced force fields and stochastic response prediction as well. The POD and its proper transformations based on either zero-time-lag covariance matrix or cross spectral one of random fields/processes have been branched by either the covariance proper transformation (CPT) in the time domain or the spectral proper transformation (SPT) in the frequency domain. So far, the covariance matrix-based POD and its covariance proper transformation in the time domain has been used almost in the wind engineering topics due to its simplification in computation and interpretation. In this research, the unsteady buffeting forces and the gust response prediction of bridges with emphasis on the POD applications have been discussed. Investigations on the admittance function of turbulent-induced buffeting forces and the coherence one of the surface pressure as well as the spatial distribution and correlation of the unsteady pressure fields around some typically rectangular cylinders in the different unsteady flows have been carried out thanks to physical measurements in the wind tunnel. This research indicated effect of the bluff body flow and the wind-structure interaction on the higher coherence of buffeting forces than the coherence of turbulence, thus this effect should be accounted and undated for recent empirical formulae of the coherence function of the unsteady buffeting forces. Especially, the multi-variate nonlinear aerodynamic admittance function has been proposed in this research, as well as the temporo-spectral structure of the coherence functions of the wind turbulence and the buffeting forces has been firstly here using the wavelet transform-based coherence in order to detect intermittent characteristics and temporal correspondence of these coherence functions. In POD applications, three potential topics in the wind engineering field have been discussed in the research: (i) analysis and identification, modeling of unsteady pressure fields around model sections; (ii) representation and simulation of multi-variate correlated turbulent fields and (iii) stochastic response prediction of structures and bridges. Especially, both POD branches and their proper transformations in the time domain and the frequency one have been used in these applications. It found from these studies that only few low-order orthogonal dominant modes are enough accuracy for representing, modeling, simulating the correlated random fields (turbulence and unsteady surface pressure, unsteady buffeting forces), as well as predicting stochastic response of bridges in the time and frequency domains. The gust response prediction of bridges has been formulated in the time domain at the first time in this research using the covariance matrix-based POD and its covariance proper transformation which is very promising to solve the problems of the nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics. Furthermore, the physical linkage between these low-order modes and physical causes occurring on physical models has been interpreted in some investigated cases. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第13372号 / 工博第2843号 / 新制||工||1418(附属図書館) / 25528 / UT51-2007-Q773 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 松本 勝, 教授 河井 宏允, 准教授 白土 博通 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当