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Agricultural leases issued to forestry, dairy and cash crops operators from 1980-1992 are reviewed to determine factors statistically significant in predicting risk level (probability of default and/or probability of late payment) of the lessee for each industry. From a previous study of Telmark, 1990, literature review and the Recommendations of the Farm Financial Standards Task Force financial, operator/lessee and farmer/operator variables are selected for analysis. Data obtained from Telmark,Inc. are used to develop a model to explain lease risk level of the forestry, dairy, and crops industries. Results show that for forestry the following financial, lessee/operator, and farmer/operator variables are useful in determining riskiness: operating expense to revenue, cash flow coverage, capital turnover, years in business, gross revenue, and owner's equity. The dairy results indicate that the following variables are important: current ratio, cash flow coverage, return on assets, capital turnover, operating expense to revenue, FHA loan secured, owner's equity, and gross revenue. The crop results indicate percent equity, current ratio, cash flow coverage ratio, return on assets, capital turnover, operating expense to revenue, interest to income, real estate owned, years in business, FHA loan-secured, and owner's equity are significant variables for determining lease risk. Using the results from these models, a weighted average cost of misclassifying a lease is calculated. This is used to develop a profit maximizing criterion for determining whether a lease is high or low risk. The need for future work is discussed. In the area of weighted average cost of misclassifying a lease, additional information on the costs of leasing and riskiness of the population would aid in reducing the misclassified leases in the portfolio. Further study exploring some of the unexpected results in this study would be beneficial to both the lessee and the lessor. / Master of Science

In recent years, the impact of the permanently reinvested earnings (PRE) assertion on the financial reporting environment has grown tremendously. Under Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 740, a firm making the PRE assertion is able to avoid recognizing residual U.S. taxes on earnings of its foreign subsidiaries so long as it reinvests those earnings outside of the U.S. Suboptimal reinvestment is a potential consequence for PRE-asserting firms due to limited reinvestment opportunities abroad. Suboptimal foreign reinvestment, typically high amounts of reinvestment in financial assets, may be viewed negatively by financial statement users, particularly those users concerned with the default risk of a firm. The disclosure of PRE-related information varies substantially and the actual degree of compliance with this accounting standard has been questioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). While firms may believe it is advantageous to obscure their PRE-related activity due to media or political concerns, recent academic literature has highlighted a negative relation between disclosure quality in financial statements and credit risk. The purpose of this study is to examine the relations among foreign reinvestment strategy, PRE disclosure, and long-term credit ratings. First, I examine the direct effect of a firm's reinvestment strategy on its long-term credit rating. Second, I investigate the relation between a firm's reinvestment strategy and its choice to disclose PRE-related information. Third, I study the relation between a firm's choice to disclose PRE-related information and its long-term credit rating. Finally, I examine the potential attenuating effect of the PRE disclosure on the negative relation between financial reinvestment and credit ratings. Using hand collected PRE data for Fortune 500 firms from 1997-2010, I find a negative relation between the intensity of a firm's reinvestment in financial assets and its (1) long-term credit rating and (2) choice to disclose PRE-related information. Furthermore, I find a positive relation between a firm's choice to disclose PRE and its credit rating. / Ph. D. / In recent years, U.S. multinational companies (MNCs) have been criticized by politicians and media members for using accounting and tax rules to avoid recognizing and paying substantial amounts of tax. Under U.S. accounting rules, U.S. MNCs include the earnings of both domestic and foreign subsidiaries in their net income for financial statement reporting purposes. Furthermore, companies are required to recognize income tax expense on the earnings from both domestic and foreign subsidiaries; this income tax expense recognition lowers companies’ net income. However, companies may make the permanently reinvested earnings (PRE) assertion, allowing them to avoid recognizing income tax expense on the income earned from foreign subsidiaries so long as they reinvest those earnings outside the U.S. Therefore, companies making the PRE assertion capture the income earned from foreign subsidiaries without the penalty of recognizing income tax expense. In order to make the PRE assertion, companies must (1) have a foreign reinvestment plan or strategy and (2) disclose required PRErelated information in the footnotes to their financial statements. One consequence of making the PRE assertion is suboptimal foreign reinvestment in financial assets (cash hoarding, financial investments with low returns, etc.). This may be viewed negatively by financial statement users, particularly those users concerned with the credit risk of a company. I investigate the relations among the effects of making the PRE assertion, (1) company reinvestment strategy and (2) financial statement disclosure quality, and the perception of a company’s credit risk. First, I find that companies more heavily reinvested in financial assets than operating assets (buildings, equipment, etc.) are (1) viewed negatively by credit rating analysts and (2) less likely to disclose PRE-related information. Second, I find that companies disclosing PRE-related information are viewed more favorably by credit rating analysts. Collectively, the results of this study indicate that (1) a company’s reinvestment strategy and its PRE disclosure quality are viewed as risk relevant by credit rating analysts and (2) a company with a reinvestment strategy focused on financial assets is less likely to disclose PRE-related information.

Magistro baigiamajame darbe išanalizuota ir įvertinta valstybių kredito reitingų suteikimo metodologija, šio proceso kritika, pateikti pasiūlymai esamoms problemoms spręsti. Atlikta koreliacinė, regresinė, pagrindinių komponenčių analizė ir pasinaudojus trijų Baltijos šalių – Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos, pavyzdžiu surasti trys atskiri modeliai, tiksliausiai prognozuojantys minėtų valstybių kredito reitingus, remiantis makroekonominiais rodikliais. Pirmoje darbo dalyje teoriniu aspektu nagrinėjama kredito reitingo samprata, jo reikšmė finansų rinkoms, apibrėžiamos priežastys, lemiančios kredito reitingų trūkumus ir pateikiami tobulinimo siūlymai. Antroje dalyje analizuojamos trijų pagrindinių kredito reitingo agentūrų – Standard and Poor‘s, Fitch ir Moody‘s valstybių kredito reitingo suteikimo metodologijos, tiriama mokslinė literatūra, nagrinėjanti kredito reitingo priklausomybę nuo makroekonominių rodiklių, pateikiamas tyrimo modelis, nagrinėjamos su juo susijusios problemos, apibrėžiama darbo eiga. Trečioje dalyje sudaromos tiesinės daugianarės regresijos lygtys, naudojamos prognozuoti Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos kredito reitingą, atliekamas ateities kredito reitingų prognozavimas remiantis faktiniais 2012 m. IV ketvirčio duomenimis ir numatomais scenarijais. / Master's Work analyzed and evaluated methodology of sovereign credit ratings, the critique of the process itself and proposed solutions for existing problems. Correlation, regression and principal components analysis were used to determine distinct models for the three Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Lithuania, that accurately predicts future credit ratings based on macro-economic indicators. The first part examines theoretical aspect of the concept of credit rating, its value to the global financial markets, defines the causes of the credit rating errors, presents possible solutions for the failures of credit ratings. In the second section methodologies used by Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's to determine sovereign credit ratings are analyzed, scientific literature on the dependence of credit rating and macro-economic indicators are examined, research model and problems associated with it are presented, workflow is defined. In the third part linear multiple regression equations are derived which are used to predict future credit ratings of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, future credit ratings predictions are carried out based on actual year 2012 fourth quarter data and future scenarios.

The financial stability of banks is crucial if they are to fulfil their role in facilitating transactions between borrowers and lenders. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of credit risk on the South African banking industry following a movement in credit ratings by rating agencies. Data from a sample of 11 banks were collected from 2006 to 2015. Econometric regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The results show that inflation, credit ratings, exchange rate, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, capital adequacy ratio and size of the bank are significant factors that determine "non-performing loans". Therefore, it is imperative that banks continuously monitor these factors and adapt their credit policies on "non-performing loans". This action would prepare banks for any adverse effects and ensure that the banking industry remains a sound and efficient contributor to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Because the nature of municipalities differs from that of commercial institutions, norms and standards for the determination of creditworthiness are also different. Although various documented models and studies addressing credit rating related issues in the commercial sector are available, no objective model for determining the creditworthiness of municipalities has been published in South Africa. This model has been developed specifically for the determination of the creditworthiness of municipalities and is based on objective standards. All the indicators applied in the model are calculated objectively. The net product of the model is therefore a numerical figure indicating creditworthiness at a specific time. The model shows the numerical composition of the figure, and specific indicators or norms of interest can be studied in greater detail. The model has the following unique features: • It calculates a numerical value, representing the creditworthiness of a municipality. • The determination of the creditworthiness figure is objective. • Trends are calculated and form part of the calculation of the creditworthiness figure. • The model is parameter-driven - by merely changing the values in the parameter file, all the calculations are changed accordingly. • The creditworthiness figure from the model does not claim to be an absolutely accurate representation of the creditworthiness of a municipality, but claims to be accurate enough (80/20 principle) to form a basis for reliable and effective management decisions. This model is the first in South Africa. to offer a means of determining the creditworthiness of municipalities objectively. It is a simple model which is based on the elements representing creditworthiness. / Accounting / D. Comm. (Accounting)

The spreading sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone has renewed the debate about impact of credit rating agencies on financial markets. This thesis aims to explore the role played by the leading credit rating agencies by analysing the interaction between changes in sovereign ratings announced and the yield spreads of sovereign bonds, especially the short term impact and the potential contagion effect of rating changes on the highly integrated Euro zone financial market. The conducted event study and panel regression indicate that there is a significant impact of rating downgrades and negative rating outlooks on sovereign bond markets. Moreover, we have found significant contagion effect spreading from downgraded countries to non-event Euro zone members, namely not only to sovereign bond markets, but also to stock markets. JEL Classification: C23, E44, G12, G14 Keywords: credit ratings; sovereign yield spreads; rating agencies; contagion Author's email: veronika.vyskocilova@email.cz Supervisor's email: roman.horvath@gmail.com

Este estudo buscou evidenciar os efeitos da adoção mandatória do IFRS sobre a qualidade das informações contábeis relevantes para a avaliação do risco de crédito das empresas. Neste contexto foram analisados três aspectos de interesse: (1) a capacidade dos números contábeis explicarem os ratings de crédito atribuídos pelas três principais agências de classificação de risco (Moody\'s, S&P e Fitch), (2) a diferença em termos de ganhos informacionais entre países emergentes e desenvolvidos com a adoção mandatória do IFRS, e (3) a identificação de aspectos de governança nacional capazes de explicar tais diferenças. As análises se basearam nos ratings e dados contábeis anuais de 571 empresas domiciliadas em 37 países durante o período de 2005 a 2017, o que constitui uma amostra de 4.683 empresas-anos. Os aspectos 1 e 2 foram testados por meio de comparações entre as qualidades dos ajustes (goodness of fit) de modelos do tipo probit ordenado. O método de reamostragem por bootstrap foi aplicado para testar a significância estatística das diferenças entre os modelos. Para a terceira análise foram estimados modelos de MQO para o teste dos coeficientes de regressão das interações entre a adoção do IFRS e indicadores de governança nacional fornecidos pelo Banco Mundial (WGI). Os resultados sugerem que a adoção mandatória do IFRS aumentou a capacidade dos dados contábeis explicarem as notas de crédito atribuídas pelas agências de rating às empresas. Ademais, foi evidenciado que este efeito é em média mais acentuado em economias emergentes em comparação com as desenvolvidas. Quanto a influência dos aspectos institucionais dos países, os modelos indicaram relação significativa entre os níveis de controle da corrupção, a adoção mandatória do IFRS e a capacidade dos dados contábeis explicarem os ratings de crédito. O estudo reforça a relevância da informação contábil para a análise do risco de crédito das empresas, traz novas contribuições à literatura relacionada aos efeitos da adoção do IFRS e evidencia a influência do ambiente institucional sobre esta relação / This research aims to find evidence about the effects of IFRS mandatory adoption on credit relevant accounting information. In this context three aspects of interest were analyzed: (1) the capability of accounting numbers to explain credit ratings assigned by the big three credit rating agencies (Moody\'s, S&P and Fitch), (2) the difference between emerging and developed markets in terms of informational gains after the mandatory adoption of IFRS, and (3) the identification of national governance aspects that might explain this difference. The analysis was based on credit rating and annual accounting data on 571 companies in 37 countries from 2005 to 2017, resulting in a sample of 4.683 firm-years. Aspects 1 and 2 were tested by comparing ordered probit model\'s goodness of fit. The bootstrap method was applied to test the statistical significance of the difference between models. For the third analysis, OLS models were estimated to test the regression coefficients from interactions between IFRS adoption and country governance indicators provided by the World Bank (WGI). The results suggest that IFRS mandatory adoption increased the capability of accounting information to explain credit ratings assigned by rating agencies. Additionally, evidence points out that this effect is greater on average for companies in emerging markets compared to others in developed markets. Regarding the influence of countries institutional characteristics, models indicated a significant relationship between corruption control levels, IFRS mandatory adoption, and capability of accounting data to explain credit ratings. This study supports the relevance of accounting information to assess credit risk, brings new contributions to existing literature about the effects of IFRS adoption, and provides new evidence related to the influence of institutional environment on this relationship

This study aims to investigate the relationship between ESG-scores and credit ratings for Large Cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Nordic Stock Exchange Market. The purpose of the study is also to achieve a deeper understanding of how Swedish banks incorporate sustainability in the credit process. Considering the purpose of the study, triangulation was chosen as the approach as it includes both quantitative and qualitative procedures. Inspired by prior research the variables has primarily been conducted using simple linear and logistic regressions. Compared to significant prior research illuminating the positive effects of sustainability on financial performance, as well as risk mitigation effects, the study provides surprising results. Positive correlation between ESG-scores and credit scores can only be confirmed for two of the studied years. Four of the years verifies a positive correlation between a high ESG-score and a high credit score. The result also reflect that the strength of the correlation varies across industries and countries. Insights from the qualitative part of the study confirms that banks take sustainability into account in the credit process. The result of the study goes both hand in hand with prior research and deviates from it, which creates interesting opportunities for future research. / Denna studie syftar till att undersöka eventuella samband mellan ESG-betyg och kreditbetyg för börsnoterade bolag på Nasdaq Nordic Large Cap för tidsperioden 2009–2017. Vidare eftersöks djupare förståelse för hur svenska banker integrerar hållbarhet i kreditbedömningsprocessen för företag. Med studiens syfte i beaktande föll metodvalet på triangulering då angreppssättet innefattar en kombination av kvantitativ och kvalitativ ansats. Med inspiration från tidigare forskning analyserades variablerna ESG-betyg och kreditbetyg med hjälp av linjära- och logistiska regressioner. I förhållande till omfattande tidigare forskning belysande hållbarhets positiva inverkan på finansiell prestation och reducering av risk förefaller studiens resultat förvånande. Ett positivt samband mellan ESG- betyg och kreditbetyg kan bara bekräftas för två av de undersökta åren. Ett positivt samband mellan ett högt ESG-betyg och ett högt kreditbetyg kan bekräftas för fyra år. Det råder även skillnader i korrelationens styrka beroende på bransch och land. Resultatet från den kvalitativa delen bekräftar att samtliga banker genomför en intern hållbarhetsanalys för företag i kreditbedömningen. Utfallet av studien går både i linje med och emot tidigare forskning vilket skapar intressanta möjligheter för vidare forskning.