02 February 2007
Economy is an very important factor to the cause of crimes. The unemployment rate play a key role to the economy side of a society. Besides, the probability of being arrested is also been calculated by the offenders. So this paper tries to use the crime rate ,clearance rate , unemployment rate , as variables to discuss their relations. This paper selects 138 data samples from January, 1995 to June, 2006, analyze them by Literature Survey Method¡BUnit Root Test Method¡BJohansen of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method. The result shows that constantly descend in the other conditions, when the unemployment rate increases by 1%, causing the crime rate to increase by 3.38%, namely the unemployment rate increases the function for the crime rate. When the clearance rate increase by 1%, the crime rate will be reduced by 0.67%, meaning that then clearance rate can reduce the function of the crime rate.
Zhang, Wenjie, active 2013
05 December 2013
The main purpose of this study is to determine if a Bayesian approach can better capture and provide reasonable predictions for the complex linkage between crime and income inequality. In this research, we conduct a model comparison between classical inference and Bayesian inference. The conventional studies on the relationship between crime and income inequality usually employ regression analysis to demonstrate whether these two issues are associated. However, there seems to be lack of use of Bayesian approaches in regard to this matter. Studying the panel data of China from 1993 to 2009, we found that in addition to a linear mixed effects model, a Bayesian hierarchical model with informative prior is also a good model to describe the linkage between crime rate and income inequality. The choice of models really depends on the research needs and data availability. / text
DiSpirito, Philip M
01 January 2018
What explains the variance in crime rates among Florida counties? Bivariate regression found that clearance rate had a statistically significant negative relationship with crime rate, and that the following variables had a statistically significant positive association with crime rate: law enforcement funding, population density, Hispanic population percent, the percent of males in the 18-39 range, and the percent of immigrants. It seems probable that law enforcement funding is actually dependent on crime rate rather than causing increases in crime rate: counties with higher crime rates likely spend more money on law enforcement to combat crime. To deal with significant multicollinearity, stepwise regression was used to determine which variables to include in the multivariate analysis. In this model, clearance rate had a statistically significant negative association with crime rate and the percent of males 18-39 and population density both had statistically significant positive relationships with crime rate.
Pieton, Michael A.
25 May 2017
No description available.
Chapter 1 : I attempt a detailed literature review on the passage from the probabilistic versions of the Condorcet Jury Theorem to models augmented by the concept of strategic agents, including both theoretical and relevant empirical work. In the first part, I explore the most influential relevant game theoretic models and their main predictions. In the second part, I review what voting experiments have to say about these predictions, with a brief mention of the experiments' key methodological aspects. In the final part, I provide with an attempt to map the recent strategic voting literature in terms of structure and scope. I close with a philosophical question on the exogeneity of a "correct" choice of a voting outcome, which is inherent in the current strategic voting literature. Chapter 2 : I develop a two stage game with individually costly political action and costless voting on a binary agenda where, in equilibrium, agents rationally cast honest votes in the voting stage. I show that a positive but sufficiently low individual cost of political action can lead to a loss in aggregate welfare for any electorate size. When the individual cost of political action is lower than the signalling gain, agents will engage in informative political action. In the voting stage, since everyone's signal is revealed, agents will unanimously vote for the same policy. Therefore, the result of the ballot will be exactly the same as the one without prior communication, but with the additional aggregate cost of political action. However, when agents have heterogeneous prior beliefs, society is large and the state of the world is sufficiently uncertain, a moderate individual cost of political action can induce informative collective action of only a subset of the members of society, which increases ex ante aggregate welfare relative to no political action. The size of the subset of agents engaging in collective action depends on the dispersion of prior opinions. Chapter 3 : This chapter shows theoretically that hearing expert opinions can be a double-edged sword for decision making committees. We study a majoritarian voting game of common interest where committee members receive not only private information, but also expert information that is more accurate than private information and observed by all members. We identify three types of equilibria of interest, namely i) the symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium where each member randomizes between following the private and public signals should they disagree; ii) the asymmetric pure strategy equilibrium where a certain number of members always follow the public signal while the others always follow the private signal; and iii) a class of equilibria where a supermajority and hence the committee decision always follow the expert signal. We find that in the first two equilibria, the expert signal is collectively taken into account in such a way that it enhances the efficiency (accuracy) of the committee decision, and a fortiori the CJT holds. However, in the third type of equilibria, private information is not reflected in the committee decision and the efficiency of committee decision is identical to that of public information, which may well be lower than the efficiency the committee could achieve without expert information. In other words, the introduction of expert information might reduce efficiency in equilibrium. Chapter 4 : In this chapter we present experimental results on the theory of the previous chapter. In the laboratory, too many subjects voted according to expert information compared to the predictions from the efficient equilibria. The majority decisions followed the expert signal most of the time, which is consistent with the class of obedient equilibria mentioned in the previous chapter. Another interesting finding is the marked heterogeneity in voting behaviour. We argue that the voters' behaviour in our data can be best described as that in an obedient equilibrium where a supermajority (and hence the decision) always follow the expert signal so that no voter is pivotal. A large efficiency loss manifests due to the presence of expert information when the committee size was large. We suggest that it may be desirable for expert information to be revealed only to a subset of committee members. Finally, in the Appendix we describe a new alternative method for producing the signal matrix of the game. Chapter 5 : There is a significant gap between the theoretical predictions and the empirical evidence about the efficiency of policies in reducing crime rates. This chapter argues that one important reason for this is that the current literature of economics of crime overlooks an important hysteresis effect in criminal behaviour. One important consequence of hysteresis is that the effect on an outcome variable from positive exogenous variations in the determining variables has a different magnitude from negative variations. We present a simple model that characterises hysteresis in both the micro and macro levels. When the probability of punishment decreases, some law abiding agents will find it more beneficial to enter a criminal career. If the probability of punishment returns to its original level, a subset of these agents will continue with their career in crime. We show that, when crime choice exhibits weak hysteresis at the individual level, crime rate in a society consisted from a continuum of agents that follows any non-uniform distribution will exhibit strong hysteresis. Only when punishment is extremely severe the effect of hysteresis ceases to exist. The theoretical predictions corroborate the argument that policy makers should be more inclined to set pre-emptive policies rather than mitigating measures.
13 August 2014
The purpose of this dissertation is to identify an optimum ratio of police officers to city residents for the purpose of reducing year-to-year crime rates in cities with populations between 25,000 and 999,999. Current research in this area focuses on the impact of the number of police officers on overall crime rates. However, that body of research does not distinguish the impacts found in minimally-staffed, moderately-staffed, and highly-staffed agencies. By examining each of these three groups separately, a statistically significant relationship was determined to exist between per capita staffing levels and short-term property crime reduction for agencies with 1.50 to 2.75 police officers per 1,000 residents. No such relationship existed for agencies with fewer than 1.50 officers or greater than 2.75 officers per 1,000 residents. There was no identifiable relationship between staffing levels and violent crime categories. As a result of this finding, an optimum staffing range has been identified for local law enforcement agencies seeking to make immediate, short-term impacts on property crime.
Weiss, Marc Weiss
01 January 2016
Law enforcement agencies believe that traffic enforcement, in addition to reducing fatalities associated with automobile collisions, may also reduce the incidence of public order crimes. The academic literature, though, has largely failed to address this phenomenon. The purpose of this correlational study was to use Kelling and Wilson's broken windows theory to evaluate whether a statistically significant relationship exists between traffic enforcement rates and public order crimes in South Carolina. Secondary data from 5 counties were acquired from the South Carolina Department of Public Safety and the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division for the time period 2008 through 2012. Statistically significant Spearman's Rho correlations were found for 4 of the 5 counties (p < .05). Though statistically significant, the correlations were weak. The findings suggest that Wilson and Kelling's theory is somewhat predictive of the relationship between the visibility of law enforcement officers and reductions in public order crimes, but may not fully explain this relationship. Even so, there is some evidence that the presence of traffic enforcement officers may reduce certain types of crime, thereby improving the quality of life for residents. Based on the findings, one important recommendation of this study is for law enforcement agencies in South Carolina to consider enhancing or expanding the use of traffic enforcement teams because of their potential value in reducing public order crimes, including a plan to conduct a follow-up evaluation of the efficacy of such a program.
En förändring av arbetslösheten i Sverige, påverkar det brottsligheten? : En ekonometrisk ansats / A change in the unemployment rate in Sweden, does it affect the crime rate? : An econometric approachWadman, Johan, Malmberg, Lars January 2011 (has links)
Finanskrisens inträde i mitten av 2008 utsattes Sveriges ekonomi för kraftiga påfrestningar. BNP-tillväxten mattades av och vi har till och med sett en negativ tillväxt för första gången sedan krisen i 90-talets början. Samtidigt har både hushållens konsumtion och näringslivets produktion rasat vilket har bidragit till kännbara effekter och en osäker tid för båda parter. Till en följd av detta har många företag tvingats avveckla sin verksamhet helt medan andra fått se över sina kostnader. Detta har i sin tur bidragit till att arbetslösheten ökat med cirka tre procentenheter mellan 2008 och 2010. En konsekvens av detta kan tänkas vara att brottsligheten påverkas. Vi har med hjälp av den statistiska metoden multipel regressionsanalys undersökt om, och i sådana fall hur våldsbrott samt stöld-, rån- och häleribrott påverkas när arbetslösheten förändras. Detta har utförts i två olika modeller, en för varje brottskategori, VB-modellen som behandlar våldsbrott och SB-modellen som innehåller stöld-, rån- och häleribrott. Då det även kan finnas andra variabler som påverkar brottsligheten har vi tagit med ytterligare åtta stycken i vår regression. Dataunderlaget är hämtat SCB, BRÅ och AMS hemsidor och avser samtliga Sveriges kommuner under åren 1996 till 2008. Resultatet av regressionen i VB-modellen visade att, om arbetslösheten ökar med en procentenhet så kommer antalet anmälda våldsbrott att minska med 0,019 brott per 1 000 invånare. När man sedan analyserar resultatet i SB-modellen ser vi att antalet stöld-, rån- och häleribrott per 1 000 invånare ökar med 4,216 om arbetslösheten ökar med en procentenhet. / The financial crisis in the middle of 2008 pushed the Swedish economy to its limits. GDP growth decreased and for the first time since the 1990 crisis, there was a negative growth in GDP. At the same time household expenditure and industrial production fell and lead to noticeable effects and uncertain times for both parties. As a consequence of this many companies have gone out of business. This has contributed to an increase in the unemployment rate with three percentage points between 2008 and 2010. A possible consequence of this could be an increasing crime rate. With the statistical method, multiple regression analysis, we have studied if there is a relationship between crime and unemployment. This has been done with two different models, the VB-model that includes assault crimes and the SB-model that includes property related crimes. Because there are more variables that can affect the crime rate, we include eight more variables in our equation. The data has been collected from SCB (Statistiska Centralbyrån), BRÅ (Brottsförebyggande Rådet) and AMS (Arbetsförmedlingen) webpage’s and concerns all municipalities in Sweden during 1996 to 2008. The result from the regression analysis shows, in the VB-model, if the unemployment increases with one percentage point, the number of reported assault crimes decreases with 0.019 crimes per 1000 residents. The result for the SB-model is that if the unemployment rate increases with one percentage point the number of reported property related crimes would increase with 4.216 crimes per 1000 residents.
22 March 2006
The theme of this study is Rural Crime of Lithuania. This is historically changing mass social phenomenon of legal – criminal nature, which consists of the entirety of criminal acts, committed in rural areas of Lithuania during certain period. In the study there are analyzed the concept of rural crime and it‘s content, factors that determine rural crime in Lithuania, historical aspects of rural crime, also the level, structure and dynamics of rural crime in Lithuania in 2000 – 2004, personality of rural criminal and registered crime and persons committed crime in the municipality of Kazlų Rūda in 2001 – 2004.
A violência entre adolescentes no conjunto habitacional Orlando Quagliato no município de Ourinhos: realidade ou mito ?Perino, Ermenegilda de Fátima Dias [UNESP] 13 December 2005 (has links) (PDF)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:23:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2005-12-13Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:27:48Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 perino_efd_me_mar.pdf: 608588 bytes, checksum: 100ae2a7cd26b2a3a458953ded1d19f4 (MD5) / Este trabalho relata uma investigação que teve por motivação o interesse em analisar o perfil dos adolescentes infratores no município de Ourinhos e, mais especificamente, obter resposta para a hipótese baseada no conhecimento popular de que o Conjunto Habitacional Orlando Quagliato (CHOQ) seria o bairro mais violento da cidade (ou seria isto um mito?) Para a consecução deste estudo, optou-se em realizar uma pesquisa bibliográfica e documental nas Delegacias de Polícia existentes no município, onde 1.828 boletins de ocorrência foram consultados, totalizando 2.512 adolescentes, no período de 1999 a 2003. A partir desta pesquisa quantitativa, objetivou-se conhecer o perfil desses adolescentes, buscando identificar: número de boletins de ocorrência por delegacia, número de adolescentes envolvidos quanto a gênero, cor da pele, faixa estaria, situação familiar, procedência por região, grau de escolaridade, delitos mais cometidos, atividades ocupadas, destino dos boletins de ocorrência. Apurando os dados e analisados os resultados, é possível constatar que a opinião pública era sustentada por um mito. / This work tell a research that had per motivation the interest to analyse the profile of the infractor adolescents in the municipal district of Ourinhos and, specifically, to obtain answear to the hypothesis based in the popular knowledge than habitational group Orlando Quagliato would be the neighborhood more violent of the city ( or wold be that a myth? ) to the attainment this study, was chosen to realyse a research bibliographical and documental in the police stations there are in the municipal district, where 1.828 occurrence reports were consulted, totaled 2.512 adolescents, in the period of 1999 to 2003. Starting from this research quantitative and qualitative, aim at in to know the profile this youngs, looking for to identify: number of occurrence reports per police station, number of adolescents involved as the gender, color of skin, age group, familiar situation, origin per region, step of education, offenses more commited, activities occupied, destination of occurrence reports. Raising the facts and analyzing the resulted, is possible to confirm that the public opinion was sustained per a myth.
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