A economia mundial é fortemente dependente da disponibilidade de óleo, no entanto as reservas de óleo leve, mais atrativas ao mercado, tendem nos próximos anos ao esgotamento, trazendo à luz as reservas de óleo pesado para atender as demandas do mercado. No entanto, os processos associados ao transporte e processamento desses óleos viscosos consomem muita energia, impondo um grande desafio para a indústria do petróleo. Nesse contexto, se transportar óleos viscosos com água através de um escoamento bifásico em padrão Core Annular Flow (CAF) é muito promissor. Nessa prática, uma película anular de água envolve o núcleo que contém o óleo, minimizando o contato entre este e a parede do duto e reduzindo as perdas de energia por atrito. Visou o presente estudo mapear os padrões de escoamento de óleo pesado com água em dutos horizontais e verticais, mensurar os fatores de redução de potência e do diferencial de pressão associados à um trecho reto e à uma válvula de gaveta aberta e determinar o holdup para avaliar a eficiência do CAF. Para atingir esses objetivos, uma unidade de bancada foi construída, consistindo de tanques de armazenamento e de separação da mistura. Interligando os tanques, foram dispostos dutos transparentes com 27 mm de diâmetro interno e 8 m de extensão, contendo duas seções horizontais e uma vertical para análise e diversos acessórios hidráulicos. O óleo utilizado possuía viscosidade de 3200 cP a 22 °C e densidade de 945 kg/m3 . Os resultados experimentais demonstraram haver diversas configurações de fluxo segundo o posicionamento do duto, e que a diferença de densidade dos fluidos descentraliza o óleo nos escoamentos horizontais. Além disso, o trecho vertical intercalado entre os trechos horizontais se comportou como um retificador de fluxo, melhorando os índices do CAF. Foi determinado um fator de redução de perda de pressão máximo de 250 vezes para o trecho reto e de 12 vezes para a válvula de gaveta. O fator global máximo de redução de potência foi mensurado em 2,2 vezes. Concluiu-se que, para um trecho reto, o projeto de instalações hidráulicas para o escoamento bifásico deve considerar 15 % a mais de perda de carga em relação ao escoamento de água pura. Já para a válvula de gaveta, esse fator deve ser de 700 %. / The world economy is strongly dependent on the availability of oil, however, light oil reserves, more market-oriented, tend to deplete in coming years, bringing to light the heavy oil reserves to meet the demands of the market. However, the processes associated with the transportation and production of these viscous oils consume a lot of energy and pose a great challenge for the oil industry. In this context, transporting viscous oils through a liquid-liquid two-phase oil-water flow in a core annular pattern (CAF) is very promising. In this method, an annular water film surrounds the oil-containing core, minimizing its contact with the pipe wall and reducing energy losses by friction. The aim of the present work was to map the flow patterns of a biphasic oil-water flow in horizontal and vertical pipes, to evaluate the overall energy savings provided by the CAF technique, to measure the pressure gradient reduction factor along the pipe and in a gate valve and to determine the holdup as a way of assessing the energy efficiency of the biphasic oil-water flow transport. To achieve these goals, an experimental facility was built and it consisted of cargo and separation tanks. Connecting these tanks, approximately 8 m of 27mm-ID clear transparent PVC pipes, two horizontal and one vertical sections and various hydraulic fittings. It was used in the tests lubricating oil with 3200 cP and 945 kg/m3 at 22°C and distilled water. The experimental results showed that there are several flow configurations according to the pipe positioning, and that the oil and the water density difference decentralizes the oil core in horizontal flows. In addition, the vertical section placed between the two horizontal ones behaved like a flow rectifier, improving the core annular flow energy savings basis. An average pressure gradient reduction factor of 250 times in a straight pipe and of 12 times in a gate valve was determined. The maximum overall power reduction factor was measured as being 2.2 times. It was concluded that the design of a hydraulic installation to transport heavy oil with water in a core annular pattern should consider a pressure drop increase by a factor of 15 % in a straight pipe and by a factor of 700 % in a gate valve based on the monophasic water transport at similar flow rates.

La formation d'émulsions eau-dans-huile stables est un problème majeur rencontré par les pétroliers au niveau de la production mais aussi du raffinage. Afin d'essayer de prévoir ce phénomène, Total a développé une méthode de classement des huiles qui permet, à partir de leurs propriétés physico-chimiques, de déterminer a priori leur capacité à former ou non des émulsions stables. Cependant, les mécanismes interfaciaux sous-jacents ainsi que l’influence des molécules tensioactives du brut sur la stabilité des émulsions n’est pas très clair. Notre travail a consisté à étudier la contribution des acides naphténiques et des asphaltènes dans les phénomènes observés. L’étude d’huiles réelles a permis d’établir un lien entre la stabilité des émulsions et la formation à l'interface d'un gel 2D. Les études menées sur les huiles réelles dont les acides naphténiques ont été extraits ont permis de montrer que ces derniers, en compagnie de leurs formes ionisées, les naphténates, ont la capacité de réduire la stabilité des émulsions en diminuant la résistance du gel interfacial, ou même en empêchant sa formation. Les expériences réalisées sur les huiles réelles dépourvues d’asphaltènes ont permis de confirmer le rôle stabilisant des asphaltènes. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les asphaltènes s’adsorbent sur le gel 2D déjà formé par des tensioactifs passés de l’huile vers l’eau et le rapprochent ainsi de sa transition vitreuse. La résistance du gel interfacial s'en trouve alors augmentée, ce qui conduit à la formation d'émulsions plus stables. En croisant le classement industriel des bruts opéré par Total et les résultats de l’étude, un mécanisme global, régi par la compétition entre les acides naphténiques, les naphténates et les asphaltènes à l’interface E/H est proposé pour expliquer les différences de stabilité observées avec les différentes huiles. Lorsque les acides et les naphténates sont suffisamment concentrés, ils empêchent la formation du gel interfacial et les émulsions sont peu stables. Lorsqu’ils sont moins concentrés le rôle des asphaltènes peut alors devenir prépondérant en donnant une cohésion plus importante au gel qui se rapproche de sa transition vitreuse, ce qui conduit en général au renforcement de la stabilité des émulsions formées. / Water-in-crude oil emulsions are a major issue for oil companies in both production and refining facilities. Thanks to physical and chemical characterizations, Total set a classification which allows the decision of a crude oil ability to create stable emulsions. However the interfacial mechanisms implied and the influence of the indigenous surfactants of crude oil remain unclear. Our work consists in studying the naphthenic acids and asphaltenes contribution to the w/o emulsion stability. The study of realistic crude oils enabled the discovery of a link between the emulsion stability with the formation of a very particular interfacial behavior: a two-imensional gel. Experiments with desacidified oils have proven the destabilizing ability of naphthenic acids and their ionized form, naphthenates. They actually decrease the interfacial gel strength and can even prevent the gel formation. Asphaltenes-free crude oils have permitted to confirm the stabilizing role of asphaltenes. Rather than adsorbing directly on the interface, asphaltenes seem to adsorb on the interfacial gel already formed. The gel strength is thus increased and lead to higher emulsion stability. Thanks to these results and the industrial classification of crude oil developed by Total, a global mechanism explaining the emulsion stability process has been proposed. This mechanism is governed by the competition between asphaltenes, naphthenates and naphthenic acids at the water/oil interface. If the concentration of naphthenic acids and naphthenates is high enough, the interfacial gel cannot be formed and the emulsions are unstable. If the crude oil is not acidic enough, the asphaltenes influence increases dramatically and implies the strengthening of the gel which becomes closer to his glass transition. This generally leads to the formation of more stable emulsions.

L’analyse du pétrole et de ses dérivés est d'une grande importance pour l'industrie pétrolière et de l'environnement, et que dans sa matrice contient un ensemble de métaux (V, Ni, Fe, etc) et les non-métaux (S, N, Cl, etc) qui ont un grand impact au cours du raffinage et des procédés de combustion. La quantification de ces éléments est devenu sujet commun dans de nombreux laboratoires d'analyse. À l'heure actuelle, il existe des méthodes standard pour la quantification de ces éléments à l'aide des techniques spectroscopiques telles que la plasma à couplage inductif (ICP), la vaporisation électrothermique (ETV), analyse par activation neutronique (NAA), des métaux et des non-métaux, et des techniques potentiométriques les non-métaux tels que les halogènes. Ces méthodes, bien qu'elles soient validées, montrent des formalités fastidieuses, vous pouvez demander stratégies d’étalonnages bons et, dans certains cas, nécessite l'utilisation de normes coûteuses organométalliques. En raison de ces raisons a été soulevée dans le présent document rechercher de nouvelles formes de dosage pour l'analyse élémentaire dans le pétrole et ses dérivés en utilisant des méthodologies sensibles, rapides et faciles. La première idée qui se pose est de l'échantillon enrobé dans une matrice de xérogel de solide brut, ce qui pose le profit pour préparer les normes d'étalonnage à l'aide de solutions aqueuses de concentration connue et en les encapsulant dans la même manière. Cette huile manière encapsulée dans xérogel a été validée à l'aide LA ICP-MS et LIBS et les limites de détection ont été obtenus à partir de 0,7 ng g-1 pour Ni, 0,8 ng g-1 pour V et 1,5 ng g- 1 S, avec une reproductibilité entre 1 à 3%. L'analyse de spéciation ont également soulevé des molécules associées à V, Ni et S par chromatographie sur couche mince et surveillés par MS PCI ainsi trouvé une famille de différenciation molécules associées à ces éléments entre différentes fractions de pétrole brut et la matrice de l'échantillon même que les limites de détection ont été trouvés pour Ni et V de 18 ng g-1 et 23 ng g-1 respectivement. Il a également été observé que l'utilisation de ces méthodes d'analyse peut prendre moins de temps pour atteindre certains protocoles d'analyse systématique et finalement échouer à générer très peu de déchets dans l'environnement. / Analysis of crude oil and its derivatives is of great importance for the crude oil industry and the environment, and that within its matrix contains a set of metals (V, Ni, Fe, etc.) and nonmetals (S, N, Cl, etc) which have great impact during the refining and combustion processes. Quantification of these elements has become common subject matter in many analytical laboratories. Currently, there are standard methods for the quantification of these elements using spectroscopic techniques such as inductively coupled plasma (ICP), electrothermal vaporization (ETV), neutron activation analysis (NAA), for metals and some non-metals, and potentiometric techniques non-metals such as halogens. These methods, although they are validated, show time-consuming procedures, it can not raise a good calibration strategies and in some cases requires the use of expensive organometallic standards. Because of these reasons was raised in this paper find new forms of quantification for elemental analysis in the oil and its derivatives using sensitive methodologies, quick and easy. The first idea that arises is the sample encapsulated within a crude solid xerogel matrix, this poses the advantage to prepare our own calibration standards using aqueous solutions of known concentration and encapsulating them in the same way. This way crude oil encapsulated in xerogel was validated using LA ICP MS and LIBS and detection limits were obtained from 0.7 ng g-1 for Ni, 0.8 ng g-1 for V and 1.5 ng g-1 S, with a reproducibility between 1 to 3%. Also raised speciation analysis of molecules associated with V, Ni and S by thin layer chromatography and monitored by LA ICP MS, thus was found a family of differentiation-associated molecules to these elements between different fractions of crude and the same sample matrix, as detection limits were found for Ni and V of 18 ng g-1 and 23 ng g-1 respectively. It was also observed that the use of these methods of analysis may take less time to reach some systematic analysis protocols and ultimately fail to generate very little waste to the environment.

Les pétroles utilisés en raffinage étant de plus en plus lourds et chargés en métaux et hétéroélements, il est d’une grande importance pour les activités de raffinage de connaître la spéciation de ces espèces au sein des produits pétroliers et leurs comportements durant les procédés de raffinage. Afin d’apporter des réponses à cette problématique des techniques de caractérisation élémentaire et moléculaire ont été utilisées notamment par ICP MS Haute Résolution et FT ICR MS respectivement. Ces techniques analytiques sont appliquées à différents échantillons pétroliers provenant parfois de procédés de raffinage et les informations obtenues au niveau élémentaire et moléculaire sont utilisées de manières complémentaires pour améliorer notre compréhension des mécanismes se produisant au sein de nos échantillons durant les activités de raffinage. / The crude oils available for the refining industry are heavier and heavier and more concentrated in metals and heteroelements. It is thus of great importance to study the speciation of these species within the petroleum products and their behavior during the refining processes. To answer that problematic, elemental and molecular characterization techniques have been used, mainly High Resolution ICP MS and FT ICR MS for the elemental and molecular characterization respectively. The analytical techniques quoted are used for the analysis of several petroleum products sometimes originating from refining processes and the information obtained at the elemental and molecular level are combined to improve our understanding of the mechanisms occurring within our samples during refining activities.

O objetivo do trabalho foi identificar ferramentas e indicadores adequados ao monitoramento e à otimização de processos de biorremediação, incluindo parâmetros físicos, químicos e microbiológicos definidos em estudos de tratabilidade de solos contaminados por óleo cru em escala de laboratório e comparar estratégias de biorremediação, tais como bioestímulo e bioaumento conduzidas em simulações de biopilhas dinâmicas ou estáticas. Quando três métodos de extração de hidrocarbonetos de petróleo de solo arenoso e franco-argiloso para análise cromatográfica (Soxhlet-SOX, microondas-MARS e extração acelerada por solvente-ASE) foram comparados entre si, concluiu-se que a técnica que promove a melhor recuperação depende da fração de interesse (n-alcanos, HRP, MCNR, HPA), das características texturais do solo (teores de areia, silte e argila) e da idade da contaminação. Dentre os indicadores de densidade populacional microbiana (microrganismos heterotróficos totais-PHT, população de fungos-PF e população microbiana degradadora de óleo (PDO) passíveis de utilização para indicar a taxa de degradação de compostos orgânicos presentes no solo tais como os hidrocarbonetos de petróleo, o PDO mostrou-se o mais adequado em conjunto com a produção de CO2 aferida pelo método respirométrico. Quando a estratégia de biorremediação de solo franco-argiloso contaminado com óleo cru a 3% (m m-1) utilizando bioestímulo (ajuste de pH, umidade e taxa C:N:P) foi comparada ao bioaumento (bioestímulo e adição de inóculo de microrganismos extraídos, enriquecidos e aclimatizados ao óleo cru como fonte de carbono), em sistemas de bancada simulando biopilha dinâmica (microcosmo M) e biopilha estática com aeração forçada (reator B), o tratamento que apresentou melhor remoção (32%) de HTP após 121 dias foi o bioaumento em biopilha estática. Para HPA, o tratamento que alcançou a melhor remoção (33%) foi com bioestímulo também em biopilha estática. A avaliação da taxa de mortalidade (%) de Eisenia andrei exposta tanto a solos recém-contaminados por óleo cru e preparados para bioestímulo (BIOS) e bioaumento (BIOA) a serem tratados em biopilhas dinâmicas e estáticas em escala de laboratório mostrou que após 56 dias de exposição da E. andrei, todos os solos produziram letalidade de 100%, quer fossem os solos recém-contaminados e preparados para os diferentes tratamentos (BIOS M, BIOS B, BIOA M, BIOA B) ou após 121 dias de tratamento. Tal resultado confirma que a biorremediação foi incipiente também do ponto de vista de remoção da ecotoxicidade. Em linhas gerais, a biorremediação de solo franco-argiloso contaminado por óleo cru, contendo tanto contaminação antiga quanto recente, reúne os maiores desafios à biorremediação, tanto do ponto de vista da composição textural do solo quanto da natureza do contaminante. Os processos são aparentemente lentos e requerem ferramentas auxiliares para aceleração dos mesmos. Recomenda-se no futuro, condução de experimentos com o uso de diferentes surfactantes, com ênfase em biosurfactantes / The objective of this investigation was to identify tools and indicators suitable for monitoring and optimizing bioremediation processes, including physical, chemical and microbiological variables defined in treatability studies of crude oil contaminated clayey soils in lab-scale and to compare bioremediation strategies, such as biostimulation and bioaugmentation carried out in lab scale dynamics and static biopiles. When three methods for extraction of petroleum hydrocarbon for chromatography analysis (Soxhlet-SOX, microwaves-MARS and accelerated solvent extraction-ASE) were compared, it was concluded that the most appropriate extraction method depends on the hydrocarbon fraction of interest (n-alkanes, RPH, UCM or PAH), the textural soil characteristics (sand, silt and clay content) and the contamination age. Among the microbiological indicators investigated (total heterotrophic microorganisms-PHT, fungi population-PF and; oil-degrading microorganism population-PDO, the last one was the best indicator for degradation of organic carbon compounds such as petroleum hydrocarbon, together with CO2 generation measured through respirometric method. Bioremediation strategies for oil-contaminated clayey soil (3% m m-1) were compared, including biostimulation (adjustment of pH, C:N:P rate and moisture) and bioaugmentation (biostimulation plus a consortium inoculum extracted from the original aged-contaminated soil, enriched and acclimatized with the crude oil as carbon source) in lab scale system simulating dynamic (microcosms) and static (bioreactors with forced aeration). The treatment which presented the highest TPH removal (32%) after 121 days was the bioaugmented static biopile (BIOA B). For PAH, the most efficient treatment method that removed 33% of PAH was the biostimulated static biopile (BIOS B). The mortality rate (%) for Eisenia andrei exposed to newly contaminated soil prepared for biostimulation (BIOS) and bioaugmentation (BIOA) treatments at day 0 as well as the treated soil in static and dynamic biopiles at different treatment times (after 24, 59 and 121 days) revealed that after 56 of E. andreis exposition, all soils produced mortality of 100%, no matter if newly contaminated or treated (BIOS M, BIOS B, BIOA M, BIOA B). The ecotoxicity tests confirmed that bioremediation as such was incipient also from the toxicity removal viewpoint. In general terms, bioremediation of clayey soils with a complex contaminant such as crude oil raise considerable challenges, both from the soil characteristics as well as the nature of the contaminant. The processes are apparently slow and require auxiliary tools to speed up the process. In the future, it is recommended to test the use of different surfactants, particularly bio-surfactants.

Development and description of the nominal exchange rate of the dollar since 1945. Specification of determinants, which affected dollar exchange rate in the period. Consequences for United states economy and stability of the world fiscal system. Relation between dollar exchange rate and price of gold, relation between dollar exchange rate and price of crude oil. Relation betweén dollar exchange rate and significant financial crisis. Deskripce vývoje nominálního kursu dolaru v období od r. 1945 do současnosti. Určení faktorů, které tento vývoj ovlivňovaly. Důsledky pro ekonomiku USA a stabilitu světového finančního systému. Souvislost vývoje kursu dolaru se změnami cen zlata a ropy. Souvislost s významnějšími finančními krizemi.

A economia mundial é fortemente dependente da disponibilidade de óleo, no entanto as reservas de óleo leve, mais atrativas ao mercado, tendem nos próximos anos ao esgotamento, trazendo à luz as reservas de óleo pesado para atender as demandas do mercado. No entanto, os processos associados ao transporte e processamento desses óleos viscosos consomem muita energia, impondo um grande desafio para a indústria do petróleo. Nesse contexto, se transportar óleos viscosos com água através de um escoamento bifásico em padrão Core Annular Flow (CAF) é muito promissor. Nessa prática, uma película anular de água envolve o núcleo que contém o óleo, minimizando o contato entre este e a parede do duto e reduzindo as perdas de energia por atrito. Visou o presente estudo mapear os padrões de escoamento de óleo pesado com água em dutos horizontais e verticais, mensurar os fatores de redução de potência e do diferencial de pressão associados à um trecho reto e à uma válvula de gaveta aberta e determinar o holdup para avaliar a eficiência do CAF. Para atingir esses objetivos, uma unidade de bancada foi construída, consistindo de tanques de armazenamento e de separação da mistura. Interligando os tanques, foram dispostos dutos transparentes com 27 mm de diâmetro interno e 8 m de extensão, contendo duas seções horizontais e uma vertical para análise e diversos acessórios hidráulicos. O óleo utilizado possuía viscosidade de 3200 cP a 22 °C e densidade de 945 kg/m3 . Os resultados experimentais demonstraram haver diversas configurações de fluxo segundo o posicionamento do duto, e que a diferença de densidade dos fluidos descentraliza o óleo nos escoamentos horizontais. Além disso, o trecho vertical intercalado entre os trechos horizontais se comportou como um retificador de fluxo, melhorando os índices do CAF. Foi determinado um fator de redução de perda de pressão máximo de 250 vezes para o trecho reto e de 12 vezes para a válvula de gaveta. O fator global máximo de redução de potência foi mensurado em 2,2 vezes. Concluiu-se que, para um trecho reto, o projeto de instalações hidráulicas para o escoamento bifásico deve considerar 15 % a mais de perda de carga em relação ao escoamento de água pura. Já para a válvula de gaveta, esse fator deve ser de 700 %. / The world economy is strongly dependent on the availability of oil, however, light oil reserves, more market-oriented, tend to deplete in coming years, bringing to light the heavy oil reserves to meet the demands of the market. However, the processes associated with the transportation and production of these viscous oils consume a lot of energy and pose a great challenge for the oil industry. In this context, transporting viscous oils through a liquid-liquid two-phase oil-water flow in a core annular pattern (CAF) is very promising. In this method, an annular water film surrounds the oil-containing core, minimizing its contact with the pipe wall and reducing energy losses by friction. The aim of the present work was to map the flow patterns of a biphasic oil-water flow in horizontal and vertical pipes, to evaluate the overall energy savings provided by the CAF technique, to measure the pressure gradient reduction factor along the pipe and in a gate valve and to determine the holdup as a way of assessing the energy efficiency of the biphasic oil-water flow transport. To achieve these goals, an experimental facility was built and it consisted of cargo and separation tanks. Connecting these tanks, approximately 8 m of 27mm-ID clear transparent PVC pipes, two horizontal and one vertical sections and various hydraulic fittings. It was used in the tests lubricating oil with 3200 cP and 945 kg/m3 at 22°C and distilled water. The experimental results showed that there are several flow configurations according to the pipe positioning, and that the oil and the water density difference decentralizes the oil core in horizontal flows. In addition, the vertical section placed between the two horizontal ones behaved like a flow rectifier, improving the core annular flow energy savings basis. An average pressure gradient reduction factor of 250 times in a straight pipe and of 12 times in a gate valve was determined. The maximum overall power reduction factor was measured as being 2.2 times. It was concluded that the design of a hydraulic installation to transport heavy oil with water in a core annular pattern should consider a pressure drop increase by a factor of 15 % in a straight pipe and by a factor of 700 % in a gate valve based on the monophasic water transport at similar flow rates.

This paper attempts to assess the impact of price fluctuations in oil resulting from worldwide oil supply shocks on the real returns of the U.S. stock market, specifically the S&P 500, during the period of 1986 to 2011. While much past research has found an inverse relationship to exist between simply oil price increases and stock market returns, not many studies have been conducted that focus on the effects of shifts in oil supply. The model utilized, a variation of that used by Hamilton (2008), determines that changes in oil prices arising from oil supply shocks one quarter prior (t-1) and one year prior (t-4) have an effect on real stock returns. However, an F-test assessing the joint impact of the explanatory variables is unable to reject the null hypothesis that the joint effects of changes in oil prices arising from supply shocks have zero effect on the returns of the stock market.

本篇論文使用SWARCH模型探討布蘭特原油期貨市場的波動性。SWARCH模型將條件變異設定為可隨時間變動而改變，甚至移轉到不同的區間上。實證結果顯示SWARCH (3,3)模型具有最佳配適度與最準確的預測能力。樣本在不同區間下的平滑機率的估計值有助於補捉資料特性，而且當樣本落在高波動率區間上時會對應著重大事件的發生，如1990年波斯灣戰爭、1997年亞洲金融風暴與2001年的911恐怖攻擊。 / This paper investigates the volatility of the Brent crude oil futures markets using Markov-switching ARCH (SWARCH) model. The SWARCH model allows the conditional disturbances to change as time passes and even to switch in different regimes. The empirical evidence shows that the SWARCH (3,3) model performs the best goodness of fit and the best forecast performance between different fitting models. The estimation of smoothing probabilities of data under different regimes facilitates to capture the characteristics of data, and the high-volatility regime is associated with the extraordinary events, such as the 1990’s Persian Gulf War, the 1997’s Asia Financial Crisis, and the 2001’s 911 terrorist attack.

Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and nec-essary in order to understand likely future world oil production.