(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.

The global adoption and diffusion of conservation tillage has made considerable progress over the last 20 years. No-till and zero-tillage could be seen as representing the current technological end-point of the conservation tillage movement. This thesis uses descriptive statistics and both logit and duration regressions to analyse the influence of cross-sectional and time-dependent factors on the probability of no-till adoption by growers in Australia’s southern grain growing regions. Cross-section and time-series data on individual adoption decisions was gathered through interviews and employed in conjunction with generic time series data from various government agencies in a duration analysis modelling framework. Descriptive statistics suggest that weed management and herbicide resistance are important considerations for growers in their tillage decisions, predominantly due to the substitution of herbicides for the physical weed control provided by cultivation. Logit and duration regressions identify a number of significant factors influencing growers’ adoption decisions. These include growers’ perceptions of herbicide efficacy and sowing timeliness in no-till systems; the declining price of glyphosate relative to diesel; average annual rainfall and growers’ proximity to other adopters and opportunities to observe the beneficial effects of no-till. The results suggest that research and development of integrated weed management practices that are compatible with no-till systems is highly important if no-till systems are to be sustained in Australia’s southern wheatbelt. Such research and development should acknowledge the high value which growers place on locally generated information and the channels used to acquire such information, namely local extension events and consulting services. This thesis shows how duration analysis, with its ability to take account of both cross sectional and time-varying factors, can provide a statistical modelling framework better suited to the study of adoption decisions than traditional cross sectional methods based on logit and tobit analyses.

(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.

Countries with unemployment insurance (UI) program can effectively conduct a labor market policy and observe the flow of unemployed-employed. But should we just hand UI over to anyone who has no job? Do individual response to the program in terms of their decision to work or to enjoy more leisure unanimously the same across leisure type characteristic individuals? In a heterogeneous constructed labor search market we derive that introduction of the UI program increases the wage gap between the different individuals when the program impacts the productivity of firm positively. In an empirical investigation of the impact of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment using a job search model, we specify a distribution of duration of unemployment that we estimate using maximum likelihood estimation and find that there is in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 97) there are 3 types of individuals and the type of leisure individuals present an adverse response to the program: An increase in UI for the highest leisure type leads to a longer duration of unemployment. Whereas the lowest values of leisure do not tend to have an extended duration of unemployment from a positive change in UI. Finally, the response for the type 2 individuals is completely ambiguous as it could either see them having a prolonged duration of unemployment or a shortened period with no work. So a selective increase in unemployment insurance to those with a relatively low value of leisure may decrease the equilibrium rate of unemployment. The second part of the dissertation focuses on modeling money demand and shocks in Cote D'Ivoire for the period of 1960-2009. Unlike Drama and Yao (2010) our result suggests M1 is not in a long-run equilibrium with its determinants real income and expected inflation and therefore unstable. However, the broad definition M2 is cointegrated with its long-run determinants and it is therefore the most appropriate definition of money for the Cote D'Ivoire economy. As a consequence M2 can be used as an alternative to the interest rate as a long run monetary policy instrument.

Nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) landowners have been major players in increasing forest productivity and improving forest health. Understanding what factors influence landowner participation in government programs, and furthermore, what factors determinate how quickly after harvest landowners regenerate, is critical for developing policies to improve landowner participation in government assistance programs and timely regeneration of harvested lands. Two studies were conducted to investigate these issues. The necessary data were obtained through a 2006 telephone survey of randomly selected Mississippi NIPF landowners. Factors considered included an array of land, ownership, management, and demographic characteristics. In the first study, a two-step landowner behavior model was constructed to explain NIPF landowner participation in government incentive programs, conditional on their awareness of these programs. The second study used duration analysis to analyze the time elapsed between harvest and regeneration. Interest in timber production, past regeneration experience, education, and membership in forestry organization influenced NIPF landowner knowledge of incentive programs and were significant predictors of participation. Those NIPF landownersn who regenerated, did so on average, 11 months after harvest. After the 16th month following harvest, the probability of regenerating harvested lands decreased rapidly. The interval between harvest and reforestation was reduced by maintaining an interest in timber production, consulting a forester to coordinate the harvest, residing on the forest land, having planted pines, and increasing timber prices.

No description available.

The involvement of religious dimensions in armed conflict reduces the space for resolution and threatens the durability of peace. Yet, there are empirical cases showing that it is possible to address the challenges posed by religious dimensions. There are various avenues to secure durable peace for conflicts involving religious dimensions. Recent studies have focused on the usage of politico-religious solutions. Their findings are however limited to a series of case studies and still have multiple unknowns. This thesis aims to contribute to this body of research with the research question: How do politico-religious arrangements impact peace durability for intrastate armed conflicts involving religious dimensions? Building on previous research on the termination of civil wars and the resolution mechanisms for religious conflicts, this thesis develops a theoretical argument proposing that the provision of politico-religious solutions increases the likelihood of peace duration. A large-N analysis of 107 settlements from 1975 to 2018 related to 30 dyadic conflicts with religious dimensions, shows that there insufficient statistical evidence to support the proposed relationship. The findings question the generalisability of previous research and propose new avenues to further research the applicability of politico-religious solutions.

Yes / We adopt a resource dependence approach to explain the effect of state participation on the dissolution of international joint ventures (IJVs). While resource dependence theory has been used to explain the formation of IJVs, we propose an extension of the theory to explain their dissolution. We do so by highlighting the match between foreign firms’ resource needs (resource hierarchy) and the resource provision roles of state-controlled versus private local partners (resource profiles). We further argue that the effect of state participation on the dissolution of IJVs is moderated by foreign firms’ host country experience and IJV age. We test our hypotheses by using data on 623 IJVs in China. Our results show that state participation reduces the risk of IJV dissolution and that the strength of this effect differs depending on the type of state-controlled actor that is involved in an IJV. We also find that host country experience and IJV age moderate the effect of state participation on IJV dissolution. These findings enhance our understanding of IJV dissolution and contribute to the development of resource dependence theory.

A compreensão da dinâmica de persistência e evasão da atividade exportadora é fundamental para o desenho de incentivos adequados às firmas estreantes no mercado internacional e encontra respaldo nos modelos da nova teoria do comércio internacional. O propósito deste trabalho é investigar os determinantes do desempenho de firmas industriais brasileiras estreantes no mercado internacional, em termos de probabilidade de sobrevivência e evolução do valor exportado, com especial atenção aos impactos dos instrumentos de apoio Drawback, BNDES Exim e Proex. Para tanto, serão analisadas empresas estreantes no comércio exterior entre os anos de 1998 e 2003, configurando um painel desbalanceado com 8,5 mil firmas. Por meio de análise econométrica para dados em painel e estimação de modelos de duração, verificou-se que a função de sobrevivência e crescimento do valor médio exportado no tempo difere claramente entre firmas que utilizam um dos benefícios e aquelas que não o fazem. Também se pode afirmar que custos irreversíveis de entrada no comércio internacional não sejam desprezíveis entre as firmas industriais analisadas, o que indica que os programas públicos de promoção de exportações devam se concentrar na (i) redução da taxa de abandono das recém-exportadoras e (ii) na minimização dos custos fixos associados aos investimentos para entrada no mercado exportador. / Understanding the dynamics of persistence and evasion of export activity is essential for the design of export promotion for new exporters and international trade policies. Several results point to the importance of taking into account the specific sector of the industry in the implementation of public policies, which is supported by the new models of international trade theory. The purpose of this work is to investigate the determinants of the performance of Brazilian industrial new exporters, with particular attention to the impacts of Drawback, BNDES Exim and Proex. For this, we analyzed firms between the 1998 and 2003, constituting an unbalanced panel with 8500 firms. By panel data analysis and estimation of duration models, we found that the survival function and the growth of exports clearly differs among companies that use one of the programs and those that do not. One can also say that sunk costs are not negligible among the industrial firms analyzed, which indicates that public export promotion should focus on (i) reducing the dropout rate of new exporters and (ii) minimize the fixed sunk costs related with initial investments to begin the export activty.

退休基金面臨的風險來自資產與負債兩方面，負債的風險為實際給付大於預期給付的不確定性，資產面的風險為實際價值小於預期價值的不確定性。造成這兩個風險的因素有很多，其中利率風險是引起資產與負債不確定性的重要因素。因為非預期的利率變動會使資產與負債價值發生變動，而影響退休基金的給付能力。如果資產與負債之間能維持一適當關係，退休基金則可免於利率變動所帶來的不利益。本研究以存續期間作為退休基金資產負債管理的方法，債券為投資工具進行退休基金免疫策略的模擬，結果發現：在資產與負債名目現金流量不受利率變動影響的假設下，不論市場利率如何變動，在傳統的免疫策略下，投資組合必能創造出預期的報酬率；但當上述假設不存在時，免疫狀態將不復存在。為防止退休基金給付能力不足，除應每年確實進行精算評估外，應於市場利率、投資報酬以及薪資上漲率發生變動後，立刻衡量資產與負債現金流量受此變動所引起的改變，並計算變動後資產與負債現值的差額，若發現資產現值小於負債現值時，基金管理人可買賣期貨以延長或縮短投資組合的平均存續期間，促使資產與負債對利率之敏感性不同，好讓投資組合能於利率變動後自動補足此差額。或甚於平均存續期間的計算公式中，將此種變動狀況考慮進去，使免疫策略於資產與負債的名目現金流量因利率變動而改變時仍能發揮免疫效果。