交互投資（CROSS-HAULING）和荷蘭病（DUTCH DISEASE）是最近在國際貿易與經濟發 展上引起大家注意的兩種重要現象。在經濟發展史上，外人投資（FOREIGN INVESTME NT）在十九世紀前半期是屬於單向的資本移動，但在十九世紀後半期卻是屬於雙向的 資本移動，亦就是一國同時存在有資本輸出和輸入的現象，CAVES（１９７１）和JON ES-NEARY-RUANE（１９８３）稱此為交互投資。另外在近年來，不管是已開發或未開 發國家，遭遇到荷蘭病現象的國家不斷地在增加，所謂荷蘭病是指一國同時存在有繁 榮和衰退兩貿易部門的現象，例如西歐和一些石油輸出國家，常常原料部門是繁榮的 而傳統的製造業部門卻是衰退的，因此荷蘭病或是反工業化（DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION ）常指的是一國產業結構上的改變。CAVES（１９７１） 曾建議在研究交互投資方面 最適當的模型應是特定要素模型，JONES-NEARY-RUANE（１９８３） 即根據CAVES 的 建議而發展出有交互投資的一國特定要素模型,本文第一部份則嚐試根據JONES-NEARY -RUANE（１９８３）之模型的基本假設，從生產結構出發作交互投資與資本所得課稅 的一般均衡分析；但是利用一國特定要素模型作分析時，假設外國的兩種特定資本報 酬必須固定，在這樣的一國模型和特殊假設下，常會失去一些有意義的結果。因此本 文第二部份乃根據林柏生（１９８５）之兩國特定要素的假設，嚐試從生產結構出發 ，再重新探討對資本所得課稅的一般均衡分析；在這一般均衡分析中，同時驗證了資 本所得課稅和技術進步同樣影響交互投資與產業結構改變現象的結論，並根據追求生 產所得極大原則，討論交互投資情況下之最適租稅政策。第三部份則分別利用一國特 定要素模型與兩國特定要素模型，作國際交互投資的政策效果分析。

This thesis will focus on Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry; how the country uses its energy revenues within its economy; how it avoids economic pathologies such as the "Dutch Disease"; Azerbaijan's role within the Caspian Basin, and finally, the European Union's energy security and how Azerbaijan's energy resources can impact it. The Republic of Azerbaijan is a natural resource-rich country, and uses its energy resources as a means of socio-economic advancement and stability. Recent developments within the country's natural gas sector have allowed Azerbaijan to become a net gas exporter. The EU's growing demand for energy resources illustrates how important it is for states to have access to secure, stable, and diverse sources of energy. Energy resource exploration and the subsequent export of these products to international markets play a crucial role for the Republic of Azerbaijan's economy. Therefore, this thesis will first provide a brief evaluation of the history of Azerbaijan's energy sector; an overview of the current situation and recent developments; and explore how energy revenues are being distributed in the economy. It will define the interests of other important actors such as Russia, Turkey and the USA; and finally, it will assess the EU energy security, the role of Azerbaijan as the...

A projeção de expansão dos recursos petrolíferos do país a partir do pré-sal provocará, além do aumento da produção, a mudança na balança comercial do setor, tornando o Brasil um exportador líquido de petróleo e gás natural. Dada a importância do setor petrolífero para a economia de um país e sua presença como insumo em diversos setores buscou-se neste trabalho estudar os impactos desse choque de oferta na economia brasileira através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável dinâmico para o horizonte de 2010 a 2020. Além disso, estudaram-se os impactos de longo prazo até 2090 através de dois cenários alternativos. Um deles calibrado para simular a curva de produção do petróleo incluindo o pré-sal projetada através da modelagem de Hubbert e outro através da simulação do pré-sal como uma tecnologia subsidiada endógena ao modelo utilizado. Foram investigados os impactos macroeconômicos, setoriais, a possibilidade de doença holandesa e os impactos ambientais nos cenários de médio e longo prazo descritos. Os resultados obtidos mostram que na análise até 2020, apesar de impactar positivamente o PIB e o bem-estar do consumidor representativo, a produção do pré-sal produziu sintomas de doença holandesa, observados a partir de apreciação cambial real, impacto negativo na produção de alguns setores, assim como deslocamento de fatores produtivos entre os setores. Também houve um impacto positivo no total de emissões de gases de efeito estufa brasileiras e mundiais. No primeiro cenário de longo prazo, os resultados de impactos positivos sobre o PIB e bem-estar, sintomas de doença holandesa e aumento de emissões de gases de efeito estufa são observados até o pico de produção em 2030. E no fim do horizonte de simulação observa-se um impacto negativo sobre o PIB, bem-estar e na produção de todos os setores da economia. No segundo cenário de longo prazo os efeitos em 2090 são também negativos, mas percebe-se um impacto negativo na economia nesse cenário também no médio prazo, devido à curva de subsídios assumida que provocou uma alocação ineficiente de recursos na economia. Conclui-se a partir desses resultados que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal traz mais custos que benefícios à economia brasileira no longo prazo, considerando o atual conhecimento tecnológico. Dessa forma, são desejáveis políticas de investimento e desenvolvimento tecnológico capazes de reduzir os custos de exploração, bem como medidas capazes de reverter ou reduzir os sintomas de doença holandesa. / The projected expansion of the country\'s oil resources from the pre-salt layer will cause, beyond an increase in production, a shift in the trade balance of the sector, turning Brazil into an oil and natural gas net exporter. Given the importance of the oil sector to the country\'s economy and its presence as an input in several sectors, in this article we studied the impact of this supply shock in the Brazilian economy through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the 2010-2020 time horizon. Furthermore, we studied the long-term impacts until 2090 through two alternative scenarios. One calibrated to simulate the oil production curve, including the pre-salt oil projected through Hubbert\'s model and the other scenario through the simulation of the pre-salt productions as a subsidized technology endogenous to the dynamic computable general equilibrium model used. This study aimed to analyze the macroeconomic, sectorial and environmental impacts, and the possibility of Dutch disease, all in the medium and long term scenarios. The results show that, until 2020, despite positively impacting GDP and welfare of the representative consumer, the shock produced symptoms of Dutch disease that can be inferred through the results of real exchange rate appreciation, negative impact on the production of some sectors, as well as productive factor movement across sectors. In addition, the pre-salt production positively impacted total emissions of greenhouse gases in Brazil and in the world. In the first long-term scenario, the outcomes of positive impact on GDP and welfare, symptoms of Dutch disease and increased greenhouse gas emission are observed until the oil production peak in 2030. In the end of the simulation horizon, there is a negative impact on GDP, welfare and production of all the economy sectors, given the Brazilian oil curve production assumption. In the second long-term scenario, the effects in 2090 are also negative, but negative impacts on the economy in this scenario are also noted in the medium term due to the assumed subsidy curve that caused an inefficient allocation of resources in the economy. From these results it is possible to conclude that the development of the pre-salt oil implies in more costs than benefits to the Brazilian economy in the long run, considering the current technological knowledge. Thus, investment policies and technological development that can reduce operating costs are desirable, as well as policies to reverse or reduce the symptoms of Dutch disease.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Sinclair Mallet Guy Guerra / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2014. / A perspectiva de que o petróleo pode ser o caminho para levar o Brasil ao patamar de desenvolvimento tão sonhado pelos brasileiros pode estar próxima de acontecer. Sem sombra de dúvida, as novas reservas descobertas já colocam o Brasil em outro patamar no mapa geopolítico do petróleo. A camada pré-sal é uma faixa rochosa que se estende por aproximadamente 800 km entre os estados do Espírito Santo e Santa Catarina, a cerca de 300 km da costa, possui de seis a sete mil metros de profundidade e com petróleo e gás abaixo de la. A grandeza dessa descoberta pode colocar o Brasil no cenário nacional e internacional como grande produtor e possível exportador do óleo. Além disso, permitirá usá-lo como matéria-prima de seus inúmeros derivados e subprodutos. No tocante à renda a ser gerada com sua exploração as expectativas são imensas, mesmo com as constantes variações do preço internacional do petróleo. Considerando este um produto essencial e sem substituto próximo, seus elevados preços, assim como a demanda crescente, seria possível afirmar que países detentores de reservas teriam teoricamente enriquecimento rápido e contínuo. Porém, os fatos históricos têm apontado situações diferentes entre países que possuem reservas e exportam. A indústria brasileira do petróleo é bastante jovem comparada com o resto do mundo, mas nem por isso menos importante e eficiente. Com tantas possibilidades em vista, pesquisadores passaram a buscar respostas e traçar cenários do que poderá acontecer ao Brasil, na hipótese de o país se tornar um grande exportador de petróleo. Nesse sentido, nosso governo levou a pauta a um novo marco regulatório, que visa manter maior proteção do estado em relação ao Pré-Sal, haja vista que, desde os anos 90, quando foi aberto seu capital para o setor privado, a produção nacional ficou em parte no poder de grandes companhias que não têm por objetivo canalizar a renda do petróleo em prol da economia brasileira. Atualmente há muitas pesquisas que visam responder questionamentos advindos do Pré-Sal, como exemplo, quais serão os fatores econômicos determinantes e impactos dos mesmos com a exploração do Pré-Sal na economia brasileira? Em realidade não se coloca esse questionamento como um problema, mas sim a força das questões levantadas. A metodologia utilizada neste trabalho é composta por pesquisa bibliográfica e análise de dados com utilização de modelo dos recursos naturais não renováveis (RNNR) para otimizar variáveis que dão origem aos fatores de impulso para a economia brasileira. Os resultados obtidos apontam um preço estimado próximo do preço internacional do petróleo. Também os investimentos, poupança, capital humano e comércio externo serão fatores de impacto para o crescimento e desenvolvimento sócio-econômico do país. / A perspectiva de que o petróleo pode ser o caminho para levar o Brasil ao patamar de desenvolvimento tão sonhado pelos brasileiros pode estar próxima de acontecer. Sem sombra de dúvida, as novas reservas descobertas já colocam o Brasil em outro patamar no mapa geopolítico do petróleo. A camada pré-sal é uma faixa rochosa que se estende por aproximadamente 800 km entre os estados do Espírito Santo e Santa Catarina, a cerca de 300 km da costa, possui de seis a sete mil metros de profundidade e com petróleo e gás abaixo de la. A grandeza dessa descoberta pode colocar o Brasil no cenário nacional e internacional como grande produtor e possível exportador do óleo. Além disso, permitirá usá-lo como matéria-prima de seus inúmeros derivados e subprodutos. No tocante à renda a ser gerada The prospect that oil may be the way to lead Brazil to the level of development as dreamed by Brazilians can be close to happening. Without a doubt, the new reserves discovered already put Brazil on another level in the geopolitical map of the oil. The pre-salt layer is a rocky track that stretches for about 800 km between the states of Espírito Santo and Santa Catarina and is approximately 300 km from the coast. This layer has six to seven thousand feet deep and below it are oil and gas. The magnitude of this discovery could put Brazil in the national and international scene as a major producer and possible oil exporter. It will also use it as raw material for their derivatives and by-products. Regarding the income that is generated with its exploration expectations are immense, even with the constant changes in international oil prices. Whereas oil is an essential product and no close substitute, their high prices as well as increasing demand, it could be argued that countries holding reserves would theoretically rapid and continuous enrichment. However, the historical facts have shown different situations between countries that have reserves and export. The Brazilian oil industry is quite young compared to the rest of the world, but no less important and efficient. With so many possibilities to view, researchers began to look for answers and plot scenarios of what may happen to Brazil, should the country becoming a major oil exporter. In this sense, the Brazilian government took the agenda for a new regulatory framework, which aims to maintain greater state protection in relation to the pre-salt, given that, since the 90s, when it opened its capital to the private sector, production National was in power in part of large companies which does not aim to channel oil revenues in favor of the Brazilian economy. Currently there are many studies aimed at answering questions from the pre-salt, so they wonder what will be the economic determinants and impacts of these factors with the pre-salt exploration in the Brazilian economy? Actually this question does not arise as a problem, but the force of the issues raised. The methodology used in this study consists of literature search and data analysis with the use of model of exhaustible natural resources (RNNR) to optimize variables that give rise to boost factors for the Brazilian economy. The results show an estimated price near the international price of oil. Like, investments, savings, human capital and foreign trade will impact for growth and economic and social development factors.

Univ., Diss.--Copenhagen, 2007. / Enth. 4 Beitr.

Mass., Harvard Univ., Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Diss.--Cambridge, 2004. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich. - Enth. 3 Beitr.

A projeção de expansão dos recursos petrolíferos do país a partir do pré-sal provocará, além do aumento da produção, a mudança na balança comercial do setor, tornando o Brasil um exportador líquido de petróleo e gás natural. Dada a importância do setor petrolífero para a economia de um país e sua presença como insumo em diversos setores buscou-se neste trabalho estudar os impactos desse choque de oferta na economia brasileira através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável dinâmico para o horizonte de 2010 a 2020. Além disso, estudaram-se os impactos de longo prazo até 2090 através de dois cenários alternativos. Um deles calibrado para simular a curva de produção do petróleo incluindo o pré-sal projetada através da modelagem de Hubbert e outro através da simulação do pré-sal como uma tecnologia subsidiada endógena ao modelo utilizado. Foram investigados os impactos macroeconômicos, setoriais, a possibilidade de doença holandesa e os impactos ambientais nos cenários de médio e longo prazo descritos. Os resultados obtidos mostram que na análise até 2020, apesar de impactar positivamente o PIB e o bem-estar do consumidor representativo, a produção do pré-sal produziu sintomas de doença holandesa, observados a partir de apreciação cambial real, impacto negativo na produção de alguns setores, assim como deslocamento de fatores produtivos entre os setores. Também houve um impacto positivo no total de emissões de gases de efeito estufa brasileiras e mundiais. No primeiro cenário de longo prazo, os resultados de impactos positivos sobre o PIB e bem-estar, sintomas de doença holandesa e aumento de emissões de gases de efeito estufa são observados até o pico de produção em 2030. E no fim do horizonte de simulação observa-se um impacto negativo sobre o PIB, bem-estar e na produção de todos os setores da economia. No segundo cenário de longo prazo os efeitos em 2090 são também negativos, mas percebe-se um impacto negativo na economia nesse cenário também no médio prazo, devido à curva de subsídios assumida que provocou uma alocação ineficiente de recursos na economia. Conclui-se a partir desses resultados que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal traz mais custos que benefícios à economia brasileira no longo prazo, considerando o atual conhecimento tecnológico. Dessa forma, são desejáveis políticas de investimento e desenvolvimento tecnológico capazes de reduzir os custos de exploração, bem como medidas capazes de reverter ou reduzir os sintomas de doença holandesa. / The projected expansion of the country\'s oil resources from the pre-salt layer will cause, beyond an increase in production, a shift in the trade balance of the sector, turning Brazil into an oil and natural gas net exporter. Given the importance of the oil sector to the country\'s economy and its presence as an input in several sectors, in this article we studied the impact of this supply shock in the Brazilian economy through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the 2010-2020 time horizon. Furthermore, we studied the long-term impacts until 2090 through two alternative scenarios. One calibrated to simulate the oil production curve, including the pre-salt oil projected through Hubbert\'s model and the other scenario through the simulation of the pre-salt productions as a subsidized technology endogenous to the dynamic computable general equilibrium model used. This study aimed to analyze the macroeconomic, sectorial and environmental impacts, and the possibility of Dutch disease, all in the medium and long term scenarios. The results show that, until 2020, despite positively impacting GDP and welfare of the representative consumer, the shock produced symptoms of Dutch disease that can be inferred through the results of real exchange rate appreciation, negative impact on the production of some sectors, as well as productive factor movement across sectors. In addition, the pre-salt production positively impacted total emissions of greenhouse gases in Brazil and in the world. In the first long-term scenario, the outcomes of positive impact on GDP and welfare, symptoms of Dutch disease and increased greenhouse gas emission are observed until the oil production peak in 2030. In the end of the simulation horizon, there is a negative impact on GDP, welfare and production of all the economy sectors, given the Brazilian oil curve production assumption. In the second long-term scenario, the effects in 2090 are also negative, but negative impacts on the economy in this scenario are also noted in the medium term due to the assumed subsidy curve that caused an inefficient allocation of resources in the economy. From these results it is possible to conclude that the development of the pre-salt oil implies in more costs than benefits to the Brazilian economy in the long run, considering the current technological knowledge. Thus, investment policies and technological development that can reduce operating costs are desirable, as well as policies to reverse or reduce the symptoms of Dutch disease.

nÃo hà / Considerando que a indÃstria brasileira perdeu de forma precoce participaÃÃo no agregado nacional nos Ãltimos anos, este estudo procurou identificar as principais causas desse processo de desindustrializaÃÃo ocorrido no Brasil. Hà duas fontes para tal processo: a primeira tem como base a chamada doenÃa holandesa, que sugere que a apreciaÃÃo da taxa de cÃmbio real, em funÃÃo do aumento das exportaÃÃes das commodities, seria capaz de gerar um efeito negativo sobre a indÃstria como um todo; e a segunda calcada na ideia do custo Brasil, que sugere que o efeito negativo sobre a indÃstria seria ocasionado pelo forte peso de variÃveis como impostos e salÃrios. Nossa proposta à a de investigar o efeito destas variÃveis no processo de desindustrializaÃÃo pÃs-real com base na metodologia de Vetores Autorregressivos â VAR. Nossos resultados sustentam que o custo Brasil à muito mais forte do que a hipÃtese da doenÃa holandesa para explicar o declÃnio da participaÃÃo da indÃstria no PIB. / Considering that the Brazilian industry lost precociously participation in national aggregate in recent years, this study sought to identify the main causes of this deindustrialization occurred in Brazil. There are two sources for such a process: the first is based on the so-called Dutch disease, which suggests that the appreciation of the real exchange rate, due to increased exports of commodities, could have a negative effect on the industry as a whole; and the second grounded in the idea of cost Brazil, which suggests that the negative effect on the industry would be caused by the strong weight of variables such as taxes and wages. Our proposal is to investigate the effect of these variables on the real post deindustrialization process based on the methodology of Vector Autoregressive - VAR. Our results argue that the cost Brazil is much stronger than the Dutch disease hypothesis to explain the decline in the share of industry in GDP.

La richesse naturelle est-elle un gage de prospérité ou se révèle-t-elle être une malédiction? Comment le pétrole a-t-il façonné l'évolution économique des pays producteurs ? Dans le prolongement de ces interrogations, l'objectif de cette thèse est de progresser dans la compréhension des mécanismes qui font que le pétrole est, pour les pays exportateurs, aussi souvent une malédiction qu'une bénédiction. Les travaux empiriques qui constituent notre thèse permettent ainsi de répondre à trois questions distinctes : (i) quelle est la contribution du pétrole en tant que ressource énergétique (ou source d'énergie) au processus de croissance économique ? (ii) quels sont les effets directs et indirects de la dépendance aux revenus pétroliers sur la croissance économique et (iii) la malédiction pétrolière n'est-elle pas une question qui renvoie à la stabilité macroéconomique?Notre analyse met ainsi en évidence les résultats suivants : (i) une richesse pétrolière abondante et la surconsommation de pétrole observée dans une large majorité de pays exportateurs de pétrole contribuent positivement au processus de croissance économique. Ce résultat n'est toutefois valable que sur le court terme. En effet, sur le long terme, la consommation de pétrole s'avère être une conséquence de la croissance économique ; (ii) le pétrole en tant que source de revenus impacte la croissance économique directement et indirectement via ses effets sur le montant et la qualité des dépenses publiques ainsi que sur l'ouverture commerciale. Au regard de ces mécanismes de transmission, nos résultats montrent qu'au-delà d'un certain seuil de dépendance aux revenus pétroliers, la croissance économique est entravée par les effets directs et indirects de la rente pétrolière. Toutefois, ces effets peuvent être contenus, tout d'abord, en réduisant la dépendance aux revenus pétroliers, en améliorant, ensuite, la gouvernance et, enfin, en allant vers davantage de stabilité politique ; (iii) les revenus pétroliers, de part leur extrême instabilité peuvent nuire à la croissance économique en induisant des distorsions macroéconomiques. Cette instabilité se traduit plus précisément par une appréciation du taux de change réel, une hausse des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation. Les pays les plus tributaires de la rente pétrolière sont les plus exposés à cette instabilité macroéconomique. De même, les pays où l'efficacité et la crédibilité du gouvernement sont moindres sont ceux où la croissance économique pâtit le plus de cette instabilité macroéconomique.Le pétrole est ainsi un atout pour les économies des pays exportateurs de pétrole dont il faut maitriser les effets indésirables sur l'économie. Une première solution consisterait alors à réduire le niveau de dépendance de l'économie aux revenus pétroliers pour diminuer le risque d'exposition à la volatilité des prix du pétrole et en réduire le risque de contagion à l'économie. Une autre solution nécessiterait d'améliorer la capacité des gouvernements à mettre en place des politiques économiques efficientes. / Is natural wealth a guarantee of prosperity or is it a curse? How has petroleum shaped growth economic process in oil producing countries? To the extent that these questions have to be raise, the purpose of this thesis is to move towards a better understanding of the mechanisms that make oil becoming a curse as often as a blessing, in oil exporting countries. The empirical studies conducted in this thesis help answer three main questions: (i) What is the contribution of oil as energy (or an energy source) in the process of economic growth? (ii) What are the direct and indirect effects of dependence to oil revenues on economic growth? (iii) Is the oil curse a question of macroeconomic stability?Our contributions thus highlight the following results. (i) Abundant oil wealth and overconsumption observed in the vast majority of oil exporting countries contribute positively to the economic growth process. This result is, however, valid only in the short term. Indeed, in the long term, oil consumption appears to be a consequence of economic growth. (ii) Oil as a source of revenue impacts economic growth directly and indirectly through its effect on the amount and quality of public spending as well as on trade openness. Given these mechanisms, our results show that beyond a certain threshold of dependence on oil revenues, economic growth is constrained by the direct and indirect effects of oil revenues. However, these effects can be contained, first, by reducing dependence on oil revenues; then, by improving government effectiveness; and finally by increasing political stability. (iii) Oil revenues, due to their extreme instability may harm economic growth by inducing macroeconomic distortions. This instability results more precisely by an appreciation of the real exchange rate, a rise in public spending and inflation. The most dependent are countries, the most they are exposed to macroeconomic instability. Similarly, countries with an efficient and credible government are the one which suffer economic growth suffers the less from macroeconomic instability.Oil is, thus, a vantage for oil exporting countries but the adverse effects of such a natural resource on the economy must be mastered. One solution would, then, be to reduce the level of dependence of the economy on oil revenues to reduce the exposure to volatile oil prices and to reduce the risk of contagion to the economy. Another solution would be to improve the ability of governments to implement efficient economic policies.

Doctor of Philosophy / Economics / Steven P. Cassou / The increase in commodity prices that has taken place in the past decade or so has resulted in renewed interest in the debate about the macroeconomic consequences of such price increase. Previous studies tend to assume that all commodity price shocks are alike and advocate a “one size fit all” policy response by monetary authorities, either by means of contractionary monetary policy to alleviate inflationary pressures or doing nothing, since these shocks are believed to have insignificant economic impact. This dissertation analyses the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the South African economy. The first chapter studies the impact of shocks to prices of four commodities on monetary policy variables. Results show that shocks to different commodity prices have different effects on the monetary policy variables, hence rejecting the “one size fits all” policy response by monetary authorities, as some researchers have suggested. Chapter two investigates the sectorial effects of commodity price shocks. The Dutch Disease hypothesis suggests that a boom in the natural resource sector shrinks the manufacturing sector through crowding out and appreciation of the real exchange rate. South Africa is a major exporter of a large number of commodities. Using a structural VAR framework this chapter analyzes the impact of shocks to different commodity prices on the production and employment levels in the manufacturing and mining sectors in South Africa. The results show that the commodity price boom has had a positive impact on both sectors, hence the manufacturing sector did not experience signs of the Dutch disease. Chapter three examines the volatility transmission between commodity prices and nominal exchange rate in South Africa. This chapter uses conditional and realized volatility models to estimate volatility in exchange rate, gold, platinum, oil, palladium and silver prices and then employs Granger-causality, Impulse Response analysis, Variance Decomposition and Ordinary Least Squares to analyze the volatility transmission from the commodity prices to the nominal exchange rate. The results show that there is volatility transmission from commodity prices to the nominal exchange rate, hence knowing the volatility in commodity prices would improve investor’s ability to manage risk in South Africa.