The Pre-Project Phase of building construction manages the communication between client organization, user groups and designers. Disconnects and miscommunication in this phase may result in a product that does not fulfill the expectations of the parties involved. It is expected that the adoption of more formal methods can streamline the communication and improve its precision. Based on a literature review, a triage of methods is introduced: (a) a method for initial criteria management, supported by the EcoProP software (developed by VTT in Finland); (b) a method to rationalize and manage criteria in relation to the design organizational instruments, supported by the QFD ProP software (developed by VTT in Finland); (c) a method that supports multi criteria decision making, supported by a range of commercially available software tools. In order to assess the effectiveness of these tools they have been applied in the specific case of Pre-Project Phase of a healthcare facility. A Case Study on a concrete discrete decision problem is dealt with. It concerns the choice between a central medication room and patient room dispenser closets (also known as Nurservers). The Nurservers Case Study is used to evaluate the applicability of the proposed criteria gathering, ranking and decision methods in the Pre-Project Phases daily practices. The claim that these rational methods increase efficiency, precision and satisfaction of the parties involved in this phase is investigated. The thesis evaluates how the introduction of rational methods benefits the communication between stakeholders.

The purpose of this study was to develop a decision model for early-stage breast cancer patients. This model provides an opportunity for comparing two main treatment options, mastectomy and lumpectomy, with respect to quality of life by making use of Decision Theoretic Techniques. A Markov chain was constructed to project the clinical history of breast carcinoma following surgery. Then, health states used in the model were characterized by transition probabilities and utilities for quality of life. A Multi Attribute Utility Model was developed for outcome evaluation. This study was performed on the sample population of female university students, and utilities were elicited from these healthy volunteers. The results yielded by Multi Attribute Utility Model were validated by using Von Neumann-Morgenstern Standard Gamble technique. Finally, Monte Carlo Simulation was utilized in Treeage-Pro 2006 Suit software program in order to solve model and calculate expected utility value generated by each treatment option. The results showed that lumpectomy is more favorable for people who participated in this study. Sensitivity analysis on transition probabilities to local recurrence and salvaged states was performed and two threshold values were observed. Additionally, sensitivity analysis on utilities showed that the model was more sensitive to no evidence of disease state / however, was not sensitive to utilities of local recurrence and salvaged states.

Search and Rescue (SAR) operations aim at finding missing objects with minimum time in a determined area. There are fundamentally two problems in these operations. The first problem is assessing highly reliable probability distribution maps, and the second is determining the search pattern that sweeps the area from the air as fast as possible. In this study, geographic information systems (GIS) and multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are integrated and a new model is developed based upon Search Theory in order to find the position of the missing object as quickly as possible with optimum resource allocation. Developed model is coded as a search planning tool for the use of search and rescue planners. Inputs of the model are last known position of the missing object and related clues about its probable position. In the developed model, firstly related layers are arranged according to their priorities based on subjective expert opinion. Then a multi criteria decision method is selected and each data layer is multiplied by a weight corresponding to search expert&rsquo / s rank. Then a probability map is established according to the result of MCDA methods. In the second phase, the most suitable search patterns used in literature are applied based on established probability map. The developed model is a new approach to shortening the time in SAR operations and finding the suitable search pattern for the data of different crashes.

The purpose of this study is to develop a geotechnical microzonation model regarding the suitability of the residential areas in Yenisehir (Bursa, Turkey), which is a currently developing settlement area in a seismically active region. For this purpose, soil properties and dynamic soil behaviors of the study area were assessed. Soil classification, soil amplification, natural soil predominant period, resonance phenomena and liquefaction potential of the study area were evaluated using borehole data and microtremor measurements. The raw data obtained from the previous studies carried out at Yenisehir were used for these assessments. The liquefaction potential for the study area was evaluated both in two-dimensional planimetric and three-dimensional volumetric assessments. Two geotechnical microzonation maps were produced for the study area according to the surface damage due to liquefaction (according to two different methods), soil amplification and distance to streams maps / by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. The weight values were assigned to the layers using Analytical Hierarchical Process method by pairwise comparisons. Evaluating geotechnical microzonation maps produced, the safest areas were found on the northern sites of the study area. The most critical areas were found to be in the middle and the southeast parts of the study area.

Decision making is necessary to provide a synthesis scheme to design activities and identify the most preferred design alternative. There exist several methods that address modeling designer preferences in a graphical manner to aid the decision making process. For instance, the Conjoint Analysis has been proven effective for various multi-attribute design problems by utilizing a ranking- or rating-based approach along with the graphical representation of the designer preference. However, the ranking or rating of design alternatives can be inconsistent from different users and it is often difficult to get customer responses in a timely fashion. The high number of alternative comparisons required for complex engineering problems can be exhausting for the decision maker. In addition, many design objectives can have interdependencies that can increase complexity and uncertainty throughout the decision making process. The uncertainties apparent in the attainment of subjective data as well as with system models can reduce the reliability of decision analysis results. To address these issues, the use of a new technique, the Improved Conjoint Analysis, is proposed to enable the modeling of designer preferences and trade-offs under the consideration of uncertainty. Specifically, a simulation-based ranking scheme is implemented and incorporated into the traditional process of the Conjoint Analysis. The proposed ranking scheme can reduce user fatigue and provide a better schematic decision support process. In addition, the incorporation of uncertainty in the design process provides the capability of producing robust or reliable products. The efficacy and applicability of the proposed framework are demonstrated with the design of a cantilever beam, a power-generating shock absorber, and a mesostructured hydrogen storage tank.

In this paper multi-actor multi-criteria decision aid methodology are developed to examine the impacts of EU policies related to first generation biofuels on identified key stakeholders. The thesis focuses on the integration of relevant qualitative and quantitative criteria defined by key stakeholders into one comprehensive evaluation process, to serve as a decision support tool for decision makers. Weight allocation of the defined criteria will be assessed by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework, where the multi-criteria decision-aid method PROMETHEE II is used to rank relevant policy alternatives based on the information provided. In the end, results will help the decision makers to identify the impacts of different EU policy alternatives on each stakeholder group.

Pandemic influenza outbreaks have historically entailed significant societal and economic disruptions. Today, our quality of life is threatened by our inadequate preparedness for the imminent pandemic. The key challenges we are facing stem from a significant uncertainty in virus epidemiology, limited response resources, inadequate international collaboration, and the lack of appropriate science-based decision support tools. The existing literature falls short of comprehensive models for global pandemic spread and mitigation which incorporate the heterogeneity of the world regions and realistic travel networks. In addition, there exist virtually no studies which quantify the impact of resource sharing strategies among multiple countries. This dissertation presents three related models that contribute to filling the existing vacuum. The first model develops optimal capacity management strategies for multi-region pandemic surveillance. The second model estimates the pandemic propagation time from the onset to a likely pandemic export region, such as a major transportation hub. The model builds on a large-scale agent-based simulation and geographic information systems (GIS). The model is tested on a hypothetical outbreak in Mexico involving 155 regions and over 100 million people. The third model develops an empirical relationship to quantify the impact of various U.S. - Mexico antiviral sharing strategies under several pandemic detection and response scenarios.

The construction of dams and hydro-power stations are some of the most common anthropogenic changes of watercourses and rivers. While being important to humans and society by providing electricity, these obstructions of watercourses can have severe consequences for the aquatic ecosystems. One consequence is that dams often hinder the important movement of migrating fish species between habitats. This can lead to decline and even extinction of important fish populations. To prevent these negative effects, a number of different fish passage systems, including nature-like fishways, have been developed. Nature-like fishways mimic natural streams in order to function as a natural corridor for a wide range of species. Planning and construction of a nature-like fishway is a complex task that often involves many different interests. In the present study a combination of multi-criteria decision analysis and least-cost path analysis is used for determining the best location for a nature-like fishway past Strömdalen dam in Gavleån, Sweden. An anisotropic least-cost path algorithm is applied on a friction-layer and a digital elevation model, and the least-cost path for a nature-like fishway is determined. The results show that the method is useful in areas of varying topography and steep slopes. However, because low slope is a very important factor when constructing a nature-like fishway, slope becomes the dominating factor in this analysis at the expense of e.g. distance to roads. Combining the methods with results from biological studies of fish behavior and detailed hydrological modelling would provide a very strong tool for the planning of nature-like fishways.

ABSRACT: Liver transplantation and allocation has been a controversial issue in the United States for decades. One of the main concerns in the allocation system is the trade-off between the two main objectives, efficiency and equity. Unfortunately, it is difficult to reach consensus on how to develop allocation policies that aim at balancing efficiency and equity, among transplantation policy makers, administrators, transplant surgeons and transplant candidates.Our research identifies and classifies the outcomes of liver allocation into two major categories, efficiency and equity, that are, often times, conflicting. Previous researchers did not consider how to balance outcomes in these two categories. Our research uses Analytic Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methodology, to build a framework that quantifies the decision-making process and help decision makers to reach a valid consensus in terms of balancing these outcomes. Latest available patient registration and follow-up data are used in data analysis. Results from this analysis serve as inputs for the simulation model that is capable of evaluating alternative hypothetical policies.This research addresses the deficiencies of the current liver transplantation policy and is intended to refine the policy that will result in a more balanced allocation system with respect to efficiency and equity. Our proposed methodology can be applied to incorporate further changes in policy selection and refinement.

Η επιλογή και η αξιολόγηση προσωπικού είναι ένα σημαντικό πρόβλημα, το οποίο μπορεί να επηρεάσει την αποτελεσματικότητα και την αποδοτικότητα μιας επιχείρησης. Διάφορες ποσοτικές μέθοδοι έχουν προταθεί ως βοήθεια για τη λήψη τέτοιων αποφάσεων. Η παρούσα εργασία παρουσιάζει τα πιο σημαντικά και ευρέως γνωστά μοντέλα, που χρησιμοποιούνται στα πεδία επιλογής και αξιολόγησης προσωπικού. Επικεντρώνεται επίσης σε μια ανάλυση του MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Το MACBETH είναι μια πολυκριτηριακή προσέγγιση λήψης αποφάσεων, η οποία απαιτεί μόνο ποιοτικές κρίσεις σε σχέση με τις αξίες και βοηθά τους αποφασίζοντες να ποσοτικοποιήσουν τις διαφορές ελκυστικότητας των επιλογών. Τέλος εφαρμόζουμε αυτή την τεχνική χρησιμοποιώντας το λογισμικό M-MACBETH, χρησιμοποιώντας πραγματικά δεδομένα μεγάλης ελληνικής τράπεζας. / The employee evaluation and selection system is an important problem that can significantly affect the future competiveness and the performance of an organization. Various quantitative methods have been proposed as an aid to such decisions. This work presents the most important and common models, that are used in the employee evaluation and selection area. It also focuses on a comprehensive overview of MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). MACBETH is a multicriteria decision analysis approach, which requires only qualitative judgements about differences of value to help a decision maker quantify the relative attractiveness of options. Finally, an application of this technique takes place using M-MACBETH software, based on real data from a big Greek bank.