The mortgage system has been used for many years in many countries of the world. Although the system has undergone many changes over the passing years, the basics remain the same. So, it can be thought that the earlier systems form the basis of today&rsquo / s mortgage system even though it represents some differences in practice among the countries. However, this system is very new for Turkish financial market as compared with developed countries. The aim of this study is estimating the default and prepayment risk of mortgage contract and pricing the contract in emerging markets like Turkey. In this study, a classical option pricing technique based on Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [8] is used in order to evaluate Turkish fixed-rate mortgages. In this methodology, the spot interest rate and the house price are used as state variables and it is assumed that the termination decision of mortgage is driven by a economic rationale. Under this framework, the model evaluates the embedded options, namely prepayment and default options, and the future payments which corresponds to the mortgage monthly payments. Another aim of this study is the pricing of mortgage insurance policy which has not been used yet in Turkish mortgage market but thought as potential derivative in this market. Therefore, the model used in the study also provides values for mortgage insurance policy. The partial differential equation which is derived for the mortgage, its components and mortgage insurance policy does not have closed form solutions. To cope with this problem, an explicit finite difference method is used to solve the partial differential equation. Numerical results for the value of mortgage-related assets are determined under different economic scenarios. Results obtained in the basic economic scenario show that Turkish banks apply lower contract rates as compared with the optimal ones. This observation indicates that the primary mortgage market in Turkey is still in its infancy stage. Numerical results also suggest that it is beneficial for the lenders to have mortgage default insurance, especially for the high LTV ratio mortgages.

We develop a framework to quantify credit risks of non-traditional mortgage products (NMPs). Ex ante probabilities of default are caused by willingness-to-pay and ability-to-pay problems and the high default rates for NMPs confirm that payment shock is a critical default risk indicator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using three correlated stochastic variables (mortgage interest rate, home price, and household income) under normal and stressed economies. Results confirm that the default risk of 2/28 and option ARM contracts requiring a minimum monthly interest payment have a greater probability of default than other mortgage products in all economic scenarios. Additionally, the credit risk of NMPs is primarily systematic risk, suggesting that these products should require higher risk-based capital. Due to the non-linear distribution of credit risk, even the advanced internal-based rating approach of the Basle II framework can understate the risk involved in these NMPs.

We develop a framework to quantify credit risks of non-traditional mortgage products (NMPs). Ex ante probabilities of default are caused by willingness-to-pay and ability-to-pay problems and the high default rates for NMPs confirm that payment shock is a critical default risk indicator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using three correlated stochastic variables (mortgage interest rate, home price, and household income) under normal and stressed economies. Results confirm that the default risk of 2/28 and option ARM contracts requiring a minimum monthly interest payment have a greater probability of default than other mortgage products in all economic scenarios. Additionally, the credit risk of NMPs is primarily systematic risk, suggesting that these products should require higher risk-based capital. Due to the non-linear distribution of credit risk, even the advanced internal-based rating approach of the Basle II framework can understate the risk involved in these NMPs.

This thesis consists of four papers summarized as follows. Do Payroll Tax Cuts Raise Youth Employment? We study whether payroll tax reductions are an effective means to raise youth employment. In 2007, the Swedish employer-paid payroll tax was cut on a large scale for young workers, substantially reducing labor costs for this group. Using the variation in payroll taxes across cohorts, we estimate a significant, but small, impact both on employment and on wages. Effects of Taxes on Youth Self-Employment and Income. I examine the link between taxes and youth self-employment. I make use of a Swedish reform that made the payroll tax and the self-employment tax vary by age. The results suggest that youth self-employment is insensitive to tax reductions, both in the short run and in the somewhat longer run. For those defined as self-employed, I find positive effects on income from self-employment, and negative effects on income from wage employment. Can Indifference Make the World Greener? We conducted a natural field experiment at a large university in Sweden to evaluate the effects of two resource conservation programs. The first intervention consisted of a campaign that actively tried to convince people to cut back on printing in general, and to use double-sided printing whenever possible. The second intervention exploited people's tendency to stick with pre-set alternatives. At random points in time we changed the printers’ default settings, from single-sided to double-sided printing. Whereas the moral appeal had no impact, the default change cut paper use by 15 percent. The Origins of Behavioral Contagion: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Facebook. We explore the micro-level foundations of behavioral contagion by running a natural field experiment on the networking site Facebook. Members of Facebook express positive support to content on the website by clicking a Like button. We show that users are more prone to support content if someone else has done so before.

Submitted by Luis Felipe Lopes Martins (lopesmartins.luis@gmail.com) on 2016-01-29T21:26:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ.pdf: 1574022 bytes, checksum: 838f7519247a9eb766f1fd72df335260 (MD5) / Rejected by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br), reason: Favor submeter novamente, pois faltou a ficha catalográfica. on 2016-02-11T17:32:48Z (GMT) / Submitted by Luis Felipe Lopes Martins (lopesmartins.luis@gmail.com) on 2016-02-11T17:50:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2016-02-16T17:20:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-02-16T18:58:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-16T18:59:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-15 / The present dissertation looks into the use of measures as the automatic enrolment in the pension funds regulation from the perspective of the loosening of the concept of rationality, based on the Law and Behavional Economics. The work is initiated by the historical evolution of Brazilian pension funds’ regulations. It analyzes the systemic impacts created by changes to the pension pillars, particularly to the first one (public pension). In view of these changes and the increasing relevance of the second pillar (occupational pension) to ensure the welfare, this dissertation aims to analyze the possibility of occurrence of cognitive biases in complementary pensions-related decisions. Those cognitive biases can lead individuals to choose options that do not maximize their welfare, for reasons such as inertia, procrastination and optimism, unlike the predicted by the rationality assumption of the neoclassical economic theory. The outcomes analyzed indicate the necessity of regulatory measures to mitigate these cognitive biases, which should be mainly the adoption of a choice arquitecture that can induce the welfare maximization, without limit the individual freedom of choice. Those measures, however, specially the automatic enrollment, are intended to alleviate the cognitive biases, being censurable its adoption in pension plans with predominance of other reasons to the low levels of enrollment, as distrust in the fund administration. Moreover, is needed to respect certain criteria in the automatic enrollment implementation, in order to ensure that this instrument is used only when cognitive biases that reduce the welfare are observed, as well that the option that people are being nudged to is a gainful option, at least most of the times. At end, it is verified the legality of these measures using the standard of proportionality, which allows to identify the limits to the regulatory intensity. / A presente dissertação investiga a utilização de medidas como a adesão automática pela regulação da previdência complementar fechada a partir da flexibilização do conceito de racionalidade, tendo como base a Análise Econômica e Comportamental do Direito. Inicia-se o trabalho pela evolução histórica da regulação da previdência no Brasil, avaliando os impactos sistêmicos das alterações ocorridas no primeiro pilar previdenciário (regimes básicos). Em virtude dessas alterações e do crescimento da relevância do segundo pilar de previdência social (Previdência Complementar Fechada) para a manutenção do bem-estar, analisa-se a possibilidade de ocorrência de vieses cognitivos que implicam desvios de racionalidade dos indivíduos nas decisões relativas à previdência complementar. Esses vieses cognitivos podem fazer com que indivíduos escolham alternativas que não maximizam seu bem-estar, por razões como inércia, procrastinação e superotimismo, ao contrário do que aponta o pressuposto de racionalidade da Economia Neoclássica. Os resultados analisados conduzem à necessidade de adoção de medidas regulatórias capazes de mitigar esses desvios de racionalidade, na forma de adoção de arquitetura de escolhas que induzam à maximização do bem-estar individual, sem limitar a liberdade individual dos envolvidos. Essas medidas, entretanto, especialmente a adesão automática aos planos de benefícios, destinam-se à mitigação de vieses cognitivos, sendo criticável sua adoção em planos de previdência onde observa-se predominância de outras razões para baixos níveis de adesão, como desconfiança em relação à gestão do plano. Ademais, faz-se necessário respeitar certos critérios para sua implementação, a fim de garantir que esse instrumento somente seja utilizado quando se observar vieses cognitivos que prejudiquem significativamente o bem-estar, bem como que a opção à qual os indivíduos estão sendo induzidos é vantajosa, ao menos na grande maioria das vezes. Ao final, verifica-se a juridicidade dessas medidas, à luz da proporcionalidade, norma que permite identificar os limites para a intensidade regulatória.

Le premier chapitre examine les caractéristiques statistiques à long terme des rendements financiers en France et aux USA. Les propriétés des différents actifs font apparaître qu’à long terme les actions procurent un risque sensiblement moins élevé. En outre, les propriétés de retour à la moyenne des actions justifient qu’elles soient utilisées dans une stratégie de cycle de vie comme « option par défaut » de plans d’épargne retraite. Le chapitre deux fournit une explication au débat sur l'hypothèse d’efficience des marchés. La cause du débat est souvent attribuée à la petite taille des échantillons et à la faible puissance des tests statistiques dédiés. Afin de contourner ce problème, nous utilisons l'approche développée par Campbell et Viceira (2005) qui utilisent une méthode VAR pour mettre en évidence l’existence de retour vers la moyenne dans le cours des actifs risqués.Le troisième chapitre évalue la vitesse de convergence des cours des actions. Un moyen classique pour caractériser la vitesse de retour vers la moyenne est la « demi-vie ». En comparant les indices boursiers de quatre pays développés (États-Unis, Royaume-Uni, France et Japon) sur la période 1950-2014, nous établissons une vitesse de convergence significative, avec une demi-vie entre 4,0 et 5,8 ans.Le dernier chapitre présente les résultats d'un modèle conçu pour étudier les interactions entre la démographie et les régimes de retraite. Afin d’étudier les risques inhérents à l’utilisation des revenus du capital pour financer les retraites, nous utilisons un « Trending OU process » au lieu d’un MBG classique pour modéliser les rendements. Pour un épargnant averse au risque le marché pourrait concurrencer les régimes par répartition. / Chapter one examines the long run statistical characteristics of financial returns in France and the USA for selected assets. This study clearly shows that the returns’ distributions diverge from the Gaussian strategy as regards longholding periods. Thereafter we analyze the consequences of the non-Gaussian nature of stock returns on default-option retirement plans.Chapter two provides a reasonable explanation to the strong debate on the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The cause of the debate is often attributed to small sample sizes in combination with statistical tests for mean reversion that lackpower. In order to bypass this problem, we use the approach developed by Campbell and Viceira (2005) who have settled a vectorial autoregressive methodology (VAR) to measure the mean reversion of asset returns.The third chapter evaluates the speed of convergence of stock prices. A convenient way to characterize the speed of mean reversion is the half-life. Comparing the stock indexes of four developed countries (US, UK, France and Japan) during the period 1950-2014, we establish significant mean reversion, with a half-life lying between 4,0 and 5,8 years.The final chapter provides some results from a model built in order to study the linked impacts of demography and economy on the French pension scheme. In order to reveal the risks that are contained in pension fund investment, we use a Trending Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process instead of the typical GBM for modeling stock returns. We find that funded scheme returns, net of management fees, are slightly lower thanthe PAYG internal rate of return.