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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

Modelos série de potência zero-modificado para séries temporais com dados de contagem / Zero-modified power series models for time series with counting data

Shirozono, Aimée 10 May 2019 (has links)
O objetivo deste trabalho é propor os modelos Zero Modificados com distribuição na família Série de Potência (ZMPS) para séries temporais com dados de contagem. O modelo ZMPS possui um amplo portfólio de distribuições para dados de contagem em que, com uma função de ligação apropriada, podemos escrever os modelos de regressão usando as distribuições ZMPS de forma semelhante ao que é feito com os modelos lineares generalizados. Em seguida, utilizamos a ideia dos modelos Generalizados Autorregressivos e de Médias Móveis (GARMA) para finalmente propor os modelos Série de Potência Zero-Modificado para Séries Temporais com dados de contagem. / The goal of this work is to propose the Zero-Modified models with Power Series distribution (ZMPS) for time series with counting data. The ZMPS model have a huge portfolio of count data distributions wherein, with an appropriate link function, we can write the regression models using the ZMPS distributions similar to what is done with generalized linear models. Then, we can use the idea of the Generalized Autoregressive and Moving Average (GARMA) models to propose the Zero-Modified Power Series models for Time Series with counting data.
32

Fatores controladores de sistemas eólicos costeiros carbonáticos: os eolianitos quaternários do Piauí e oeste do Ceará / not available

Espinel Arias, Valentina 23 November 2015 (has links)
Os campos de dunas ativos e os eolianitos do litoral nordeste brasileiro compreendido entre Luís Correia (PI) e Paracuru (CE) estão localizados na área de influência da Zona de Convergência Intertropical, de onde vêm os ventos alísios efetivos na sua formação. A variação da direção exata com que estes ventos atingem a costa constitui o principal critério para dividir a área de estudo em três setores: norte, centro e sul. Em cada setor, a direção do vento efetivo, conjugada com a orientação da linha de costa, determina o grau de desenvolvimento da planície deflacionária,o qual aumenta com o ângulo entre vento e costa. No setor norte (Luís Correia a Camocim, CE), o rumo de vento efetivo é ENE-WSW e o ângulo entre vento e costa varia de 60°, no Piauí, a 20°, no Ceará, com extensões das planícies deflacionárias de 7,5 km e 2,5 km, respectivamente; o setor centro (Itarema e Almofala) apresenta rumo do vento E-W e caracteriza-se pela ausência de campos de dunas; o setor sul possui sentido do vento ESE-WNW e ângulo com a linha de costa de 35°, com zona deflacionária de até 3 km de comprimento. Os eolianitos apresentam-se como cordões descontínuos com 1 a 15m de altura, paralelos à direção do vento efetivo, que ocorrem em meio a planície deflacionária e exibem morfologia análoga à dos rastros lineares residuais ativos típicos desta planície. As datações realizadas em grãos de quartzo, pelo método da luminescência (LOE), e embioclastos ou no cimento calcítico, por 14 C AMS, indicam idades de 650 a 5700 anos, mas com cerca de 80% delas concentradas no intervalo entre 800 e 3200 anos. Os eolianitos mais próximos à linha de costa são mais antigos que os mais distantes, padrão esperadoem rastros lineares residuais, os quais são sucessivamente deixados para trás e estabilizados à medida que o campo de dunas migra. Na análise de fácies deposicionais dos eolianitos, reconheceram-se quartzo calciarenitos com estratificações cruzadas de alto e baixo ângulo e com ou sem rizoconcreções; a elevada concentração de grossos e o padrão dedistribuição de azimutes de mergulho de estratificações cruzadas, o qual é predominantemente bimodal divergente, tendo a direção do vento efetivo e do alongamento das cristas deeolianitos como bissetriz entre as duas modas, reforça a hipótese de associação com rastros lineares residuais. A concentração de eolianitos nesta área do Nordeste brasileiro está ligada à constituição da plataforma continental interna adjacente, a qual é rica em algas vermelhas ramificantes; no entanto, o teor de carbonatos nos eolianitos (10 -25%) é baixo, comparado com o registrado na plataforma submersa abaixo da isóbata de 10m (50% ou mais), e similar ao do sistema praia-duna atual e da plataforma interna rasa, o que leva a interpretar área fonte imediata na praia. A análise petrográfica permitiu reconhecer quatro petrofácies, todas dominadas por quartzo (Q) no arcabouço. Elas foram diferenciadas a partir do número de modas granulométricas (uni ou bimodal = 1 ou 2) e das tramas e texturas do cimento carbonático, as quais indicam diagênese dominada por processos meteóricos vadosos(petrofácies Q1v e Q2v), estes mais comuns, ou com influência de processos meteóricos freáticos (Q1f e Q2f). O conjunto de resultados obtidos, confrontado com reconstituições climáticas para o Holoceno do Nordeste do Brasil, permite interpretar que o paleoclima quente, ventoso e pouco úmido, favorável à formação dos eolianitos, estabeleceu-se na região nos últimos 4000 a 5000 anos. Momentos de estabilização das dunas e colonização por vegetação, evidenciados nas fácies de cruzadas de ângulo baixo com rizoconcreções, e mudanças no nível freático, sugeridas pela alternância entre texturas de cimentação vadosa e freática, podem ter tido origem tanto autogênica, ligada ao distanciamento progressivo entre rastros lineares e fonte praial, quanto alogênica, ligada a flutuações de precipitação e/ou intensidade dos ventos. / The active dune fields and the eolianites between Luís Correa (Piauí State) and Pararucu (Ceará State), Northeastern Brazil, are located in the area of Intertropical Convergence Zone influence, from where come the trade winds responsible by their formation. The variation of the direction in which these winds reach the coast is the main criterion to divide the study area into three sectors: north, center and south. In each sector, the direction of the effective wind, combined with the coastline orientation, determines the deflation plain development, which increases with the angle between wind and coast. In the northern sector (Luís Correia to Camocim), the wind direction is from ENE and the angle between wind and coast ranges from 60º in Piauí to 20° in Ceará, with deflation plains 7.5 km and 2.5 km long, respectively; the central sector (Itarema and Almofala) presents wind from E and is characterized by the absence of dune fields; the southern sector winds direction is from ESE and the angle with the coastline is 35°, with deflation zone up to 3 km long. The eolianites appear as discontinuous ridges with upto 15 m high, parallel to the direction of the effective wind. They occur in the deflation plain and exhibit similar morphology to active trailing ridges. The quartz grains dating by luminescence (OSL) and bioclasts or calcite cement dating by 14 C AMS indicate ages between 650 to 5700 years, but about 80% of them are concentrated in the range between 800 and 3200 years. The eolianites nearest to the coastline are older than the farthest ones, a pattern expected in trailing ridges, which are successively left behind and stabilized as the dune field migrates. The eolianites depositional facies include quartz calcarenites with high or low angle cross stratification and with or without rizoconcrections. Field properties that reinforces the hypothesis that eolianites are trailing ridges deposits include the high concentration of coarse grains, the divergent bimodal pattern of cross stratification dip direction distribution, and the lengthening of eolianite crests parallel to the effective wind direction and to the bisectrix between the two dip direction modes. The concentration of Brazilian eolianites in this area is related to the adjacent inner continental shelf constitution, which is rich in branching red algae. However, the eolianites carbonate content (10 - 25%) is low if compared to the record in the submerged shelf below the 10 m isobath (50% or more), and similar to the current beach - foredune system and to the shallow inner shelf, which leads to concludethat the immediate source area is on the beach. The petrographic analysis allowed us to recognize four petrofacies, all of them dominated by quartz (Q) in the framework. They were differentiated by the number of particle size modes (uni or bimodal = 1 or 2) and by carbonate cement petrofabric and textures, which indicate diagenesis dominated by vadose meteoric processes (petrofaciesQ1v and Q2v), with subordinate influence by phreatic meteoric processes (Q1f and Q2f). The set of results obtained, faced to climate reconstructions for the Holocene in the Northeastern Brazil, allows interpreting that the warm paleoclimate, windy and little wet, favorable to eolianites formation, has settled in this region in the past 4000 to 5000 years. Moments of dune stabilization and vegetation colonization, evidenced in facies of low angle cross stratification with rizoconcrections, and changes in the water table, suggested by the interchange between vadose and phreatic cement textures, may have origin either autogenic, related to progressive detachment between trailing ridges and beach source, or allogenic, related to precipitation and/or winds intensity fluctuations.
33

Deflace: Pohled rakouské školy / Deflation: the Austrian School Perspective

Řepík, Martin January 2011 (has links)
Deflation, today understood mainly as a decrease in price level, is in the eyes of the mainstream economists the threat and danger of the economic development. This view is based on the experience from the Economic Crisis between 1929 and 1933 and later development in Japan. Therefore, the price stability is nowadays comprehended as a non decline in price index; monetary policy actually states the sustainable increase as a goal. The Austrian School of Economics uses the original definition of the words inflation and deflation and defines them as the increase and decrease of money supply. Modern interpretation of these terms means for them a dangerous misunderstanding whose result is misapprehension of causal connections between individual phenomena. This leads not only to incorrect conclusions but, above all, to disruption of the economic system, price and production structure, and development of economic cycles caused by artificial increase in money supply, which brings profit to certain groups.
34

Swedish marine insurance between the World Wars

Petersson, Gustav Jakob January 2010 (has links)
The present licentiate thesis analyses developments in Swedish marine insurance during the interwar period, including both direct marine insurance and marine reinsurance. This is done in order to provide insights on how companies of a highly internationalised and vulnerable line of insurance were affected by and responded to new risks during a period of far-reaching international financial and economic crises. Finally, the consequences of new risks and strategies are assessed. This thesis argues that during the interwar period Swedish maritime trade and Swedish marine insurance greatly depended on each other for marine insurance cover and marine insurance premium incomes. The business results in Swedish marine insurance partly depended on the development of Swedish trade. These business results were also vulnerable to currency risks. Swedish marine insurers faced no similar trade or currency risks during the two decades preceding World War I, and accordingly the returns on Swedish marine insurance were lower during the interwar period than during the last two pre-war decades. These factors probably bore their most severe consequences during the early 1920s when Swedish marine insurance on average induced losses to insurers. The remaining years of the period constituted a long-run recovery, and the Great Depression of the early 1930s caused no difficulties of the same order. This thesis also indicates that interwar Swedish marine insurers responded to new risks by increasing the level of cession to reinsurers. Another response was to increase the level of differentiation among insurance lines. This thesis describes the consequences of new risks and strategies in interwar Swedish marine insurance, focusing on the development of the Swedish marine insurance market structure and on the business results of Swedish marine insurers. Though this market shrunk and grew excessively, the relative importance of stock and mutual insurers showed only minor fluctuations. The importance of specialised marine reinsurance companies, however, fluctuated greatly. Also, cooperation between interwar marine insurers and the formation of insurance groups set new trends of concentration for the future. Finally, even though Swedish marine insurance during some years induced losses the Swedish marine insurers never experienced true losses on their total businesses.
35

不同物價環境下之匯率轉嫁效果 / Exchange rate pass-through at different price levels

林柏君, Lin, Po Chun Unknown Date (has links)
本論文探討不同的物價環境對匯率轉嫁程度的影響。有別於既有文獻將通貨緊縮納入低通膨的區間一併討論,本論文特別區分通貨緊縮與低且正的通膨區間,估計不同物價環境下的匯率轉嫁效果。 利用門檻迴歸模型(threshold model)及台灣1981-2008年的資料,且區分能源價格及非能源價格,本文的實證結果顯示,通貨緊縮考慮與否將影響匯率轉嫁程度與通膨、通縮環境的關係。不同於既有文獻發現匯率轉嫁效果與通膨環境呈正相關,本文發現通貨緊縮環境下的匯率轉嫁效果會提高。此外,包含能源價格之匯率轉嫁效果隨物價環境變化的幅度較大,與既有文獻的看法一致。 因此,在匯率轉嫁效果與物價環境的分析上,明確區分通貨緊縮的情況有其必要性,否則可能形成偏誤之推論。 / This dissertation incorporates inflation and deflation in the analysis of exchange rate pass-through at different price levels. Because the existing literature generally consider deflation as part of low inflation, pass-through estimates tend to be considered the same for these two regimes. This study separates the effects of deflation and low positive inflation and estimates the pass-through for different price levels. This dissertation uses a nonlinear model with aggregate and disaggregate import prices data from 1981–2008 in Taiwan to first examine the pass-through for two regimes of high inflation and low inflation. The results confirm the notion in the literature that a positive relationship exists between pass-through and inflation. Then, this dissertation extends the model to a three-regime setting, including high inflation, low positive inflation, and deflation. When deflation is clearly defined in a three-regime model, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is found to be increasing in both high inflation and deflation. The positive relationship at all price levels is no longer valid while the effect of deflation is separated from that of low inflation. In Taiwan, the pass-through becomes inversely greater as the inflation rate falls into a deflationary regime. That the pass-through is higher in a deflationary regime became particularly obvious after the 1997 financial crisis. Contrary to the results predicted by the positive relationship, this analysis does not find an unlimited downward trend for the pass-through. A rebound occurs in the degree of pass-through once deflation is clearly identified, and this pattern is also found for half of the importing industries categorized using the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). In addition, the results are consistent with the notion that oil prices usually fluctuate much more than the prices of other imports. The estimates show that the pass-through changes the most for fuels and related materials. Obviously, fluctuations in the price of oil influence the measurement of the pass-through. The increase in the pass-through found in a deflationary regime becomes smaller when oil prices are excluded.
36

Traitement d'antenne adapté aux modèles linéaires intégrant une interférence structurée. Application aux signaux mécaniques.

Bouleux, Guillaume 04 December 2007 (has links) (PDF)
Le cadre d'étude de ce travail est celui du traitement d'antenne appliqué au modèle linéaire. Dans divers domaines, comme en bio-médical ou encore en RADAR, le nombre de Directions D'Arrivées (DDA) d'intérêts est un ensemble réduit de toutes les directions constituant le modèle. Nous optons donc pour un modèle structuré s'écrivant <br /><br />Observation = Signal d'intérêt + Interférence structurée + Bruit<br /><br />Où l'interférence structurée est composée d'un certain nombre de Directions D'Arrivées connues ou estimées. De ce modèle, nous proposons deux types d'approches : (1) nous supposons disposer de la connaissance de M-S DDA sur un total de M et (2) nous souhaitons estimer de manière séquentielle M DDA.<br /><br />La littérature fournit des solutions pour résoudre le problème d'estimation de S DDA d'intérêts sur un total de M. Les solutions proposées utilisent une déflation orthogonale du sous-espace signal bruité. Nous donnons alors une nouvelle Borne de Cramér-Rao (CRB) que nous nommons Prior-CRB associée à ce type modèle et nous montrons sous quelles conditions (très restrictives) cette borne est inférieure à une CRB classique issue du modèle linéaire composé de M DDA. Pour s'absoudre des contraintes liées au modèle à déflation orthogonale nous proposons alors d'employer une déflation oblique en place de la déflation orthogonale. Nous construisons alors de nouveau estimateurs des DDA d'intérêts. A la vue des simulations, les performances sont bien meilleures que les algorithmes à déflation orthogonale et nous proposons d'expliquer ces performances par la dérivation des variances théoriques de chacun des estimateurs proposés. Ainsi, via l'analyse de ces variances, nous montrons pourquoi la projection oblique est plus appropriée et nous donnons une relation d'ordre de chacune des variances associées aux algorithmes étudiés.<br /><br />Ici encore le problème de l'estimation séquentielle de M DDA est un problème suscitant un grand intérêt. Seulement, les solutions proposées dans la littérature utilisent une déflation orthogonale pour annuler séquentiellement les directions préalablement estimées via un critère MUSIC modifié. Nous nous démarquons en proposant un algorithme qui pondère, par une fonction quadratique de forçage à zéro, le pseudo-spectre de MUSIC. Cette approche montre de bien meilleures performances que les méthodes à déflation orthogonale et permet de s'affranchir très nettement de la résolution de Rayleigh grâce au contrôle de la fonction de pondération. Nous montrons de plus que cet algorithme est efficace et que l'erreur de propagation peut s'annuler via le réglage d'un paramètre de la fonction de pondération. Pour caractériser au mieux les performances de cet algorithme nous proposons une CRB, que nous nommons la Interfering-CRB issue d'un modèle linéaire constitué d'une DDA d'intérêt et de M-1 DDA interférentes (DDA estimées préalablement ou restant à estimer). Nous montrons que cette borne « reflète » bien l'algorithme ZF-MUSIC.
37

Empirie deflace a hospodářského růstu / The Empirics of Deflation and Economic Growth

Ryska, Pavel January 2018 (has links)
Author: Pavel Ryska Doctoral thesis: The Empirics of Deflation and Economic Growth Abstract This doctoral thesis deals with the relationship between deflation and economic growth. Existing empirical research has focused on the simple link between price growth and GDP growth or introduced narrower price measures as control variables. The goal of the present work is to account for shifts in both demand and supply, so that the effect of price inflation on growth as such could be separated from effects of changes in certain elements of nominal demand and supply. The work takes two general approaches. First, I use a large macroeconomic panel data set of 20 countries over approximately 140 years to explore long-run and short-run effects of inflation on output growth, after controlling for money supply growth as a demand shifter and oil price growth as a proxy for shifts in supply. In doing so, I use a range of methods such as the vector error-correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model and the fixed effects panel model. Second, I propose a new approach that uses disaggregated sector data from national accounts on output, prices and other variables to explore the link between quantity produced and sector inflation rates. The advantage of the data set is that it is rich in modern-day observations of...
38

Fatores controladores de sistemas eólicos costeiros carbonáticos: os eolianitos quaternários do Piauí e oeste do Ceará / not available

Valentina Espinel Arias 23 November 2015 (has links)
Os campos de dunas ativos e os eolianitos do litoral nordeste brasileiro compreendido entre Luís Correia (PI) e Paracuru (CE) estão localizados na área de influência da Zona de Convergência Intertropical, de onde vêm os ventos alísios efetivos na sua formação. A variação da direção exata com que estes ventos atingem a costa constitui o principal critério para dividir a área de estudo em três setores: norte, centro e sul. Em cada setor, a direção do vento efetivo, conjugada com a orientação da linha de costa, determina o grau de desenvolvimento da planície deflacionária,o qual aumenta com o ângulo entre vento e costa. No setor norte (Luís Correia a Camocim, CE), o rumo de vento efetivo é ENE-WSW e o ângulo entre vento e costa varia de 60°, no Piauí, a 20°, no Ceará, com extensões das planícies deflacionárias de 7,5 km e 2,5 km, respectivamente; o setor centro (Itarema e Almofala) apresenta rumo do vento E-W e caracteriza-se pela ausência de campos de dunas; o setor sul possui sentido do vento ESE-WNW e ângulo com a linha de costa de 35°, com zona deflacionária de até 3 km de comprimento. Os eolianitos apresentam-se como cordões descontínuos com 1 a 15m de altura, paralelos à direção do vento efetivo, que ocorrem em meio a planície deflacionária e exibem morfologia análoga à dos rastros lineares residuais ativos típicos desta planície. As datações realizadas em grãos de quartzo, pelo método da luminescência (LOE), e embioclastos ou no cimento calcítico, por 14 C AMS, indicam idades de 650 a 5700 anos, mas com cerca de 80% delas concentradas no intervalo entre 800 e 3200 anos. Os eolianitos mais próximos à linha de costa são mais antigos que os mais distantes, padrão esperadoem rastros lineares residuais, os quais são sucessivamente deixados para trás e estabilizados à medida que o campo de dunas migra. Na análise de fácies deposicionais dos eolianitos, reconheceram-se quartzo calciarenitos com estratificações cruzadas de alto e baixo ângulo e com ou sem rizoconcreções; a elevada concentração de grossos e o padrão dedistribuição de azimutes de mergulho de estratificações cruzadas, o qual é predominantemente bimodal divergente, tendo a direção do vento efetivo e do alongamento das cristas deeolianitos como bissetriz entre as duas modas, reforça a hipótese de associação com rastros lineares residuais. A concentração de eolianitos nesta área do Nordeste brasileiro está ligada à constituição da plataforma continental interna adjacente, a qual é rica em algas vermelhas ramificantes; no entanto, o teor de carbonatos nos eolianitos (10 -25%) é baixo, comparado com o registrado na plataforma submersa abaixo da isóbata de 10m (50% ou mais), e similar ao do sistema praia-duna atual e da plataforma interna rasa, o que leva a interpretar área fonte imediata na praia. A análise petrográfica permitiu reconhecer quatro petrofácies, todas dominadas por quartzo (Q) no arcabouço. Elas foram diferenciadas a partir do número de modas granulométricas (uni ou bimodal = 1 ou 2) e das tramas e texturas do cimento carbonático, as quais indicam diagênese dominada por processos meteóricos vadosos(petrofácies Q1v e Q2v), estes mais comuns, ou com influência de processos meteóricos freáticos (Q1f e Q2f). O conjunto de resultados obtidos, confrontado com reconstituições climáticas para o Holoceno do Nordeste do Brasil, permite interpretar que o paleoclima quente, ventoso e pouco úmido, favorável à formação dos eolianitos, estabeleceu-se na região nos últimos 4000 a 5000 anos. Momentos de estabilização das dunas e colonização por vegetação, evidenciados nas fácies de cruzadas de ângulo baixo com rizoconcreções, e mudanças no nível freático, sugeridas pela alternância entre texturas de cimentação vadosa e freática, podem ter tido origem tanto autogênica, ligada ao distanciamento progressivo entre rastros lineares e fonte praial, quanto alogênica, ligada a flutuações de precipitação e/ou intensidade dos ventos. / The active dune fields and the eolianites between Luís Correa (Piauí State) and Pararucu (Ceará State), Northeastern Brazil, are located in the area of Intertropical Convergence Zone influence, from where come the trade winds responsible by their formation. The variation of the direction in which these winds reach the coast is the main criterion to divide the study area into three sectors: north, center and south. In each sector, the direction of the effective wind, combined with the coastline orientation, determines the deflation plain development, which increases with the angle between wind and coast. In the northern sector (Luís Correia to Camocim), the wind direction is from ENE and the angle between wind and coast ranges from 60º in Piauí to 20° in Ceará, with deflation plains 7.5 km and 2.5 km long, respectively; the central sector (Itarema and Almofala) presents wind from E and is characterized by the absence of dune fields; the southern sector winds direction is from ESE and the angle with the coastline is 35°, with deflation zone up to 3 km long. The eolianites appear as discontinuous ridges with upto 15 m high, parallel to the direction of the effective wind. They occur in the deflation plain and exhibit similar morphology to active trailing ridges. The quartz grains dating by luminescence (OSL) and bioclasts or calcite cement dating by 14 C AMS indicate ages between 650 to 5700 years, but about 80% of them are concentrated in the range between 800 and 3200 years. The eolianites nearest to the coastline are older than the farthest ones, a pattern expected in trailing ridges, which are successively left behind and stabilized as the dune field migrates. The eolianites depositional facies include quartz calcarenites with high or low angle cross stratification and with or without rizoconcrections. Field properties that reinforces the hypothesis that eolianites are trailing ridges deposits include the high concentration of coarse grains, the divergent bimodal pattern of cross stratification dip direction distribution, and the lengthening of eolianite crests parallel to the effective wind direction and to the bisectrix between the two dip direction modes. The concentration of Brazilian eolianites in this area is related to the adjacent inner continental shelf constitution, which is rich in branching red algae. However, the eolianites carbonate content (10 - 25%) is low if compared to the record in the submerged shelf below the 10 m isobath (50% or more), and similar to the current beach - foredune system and to the shallow inner shelf, which leads to concludethat the immediate source area is on the beach. The petrographic analysis allowed us to recognize four petrofacies, all of them dominated by quartz (Q) in the framework. They were differentiated by the number of particle size modes (uni or bimodal = 1 or 2) and by carbonate cement petrofabric and textures, which indicate diagenesis dominated by vadose meteoric processes (petrofaciesQ1v and Q2v), with subordinate influence by phreatic meteoric processes (Q1f and Q2f). The set of results obtained, faced to climate reconstructions for the Holocene in the Northeastern Brazil, allows interpreting that the warm paleoclimate, windy and little wet, favorable to eolianites formation, has settled in this region in the past 4000 to 5000 years. Moments of dune stabilization and vegetation colonization, evidenced in facies of low angle cross stratification with rizoconcrections, and changes in the water table, suggested by the interchange between vadose and phreatic cement textures, may have origin either autogenic, related to progressive detachment between trailing ridges and beach source, or allogenic, related to precipitation and/or winds intensity fluctuations.
39

Hospodářský cyklus a měnová politika: moderní rakouský pohled / Business cycle and monetary policy: a modern Austrian approach

Komrska, Martin January 2017 (has links)
This dissertation presents the results of research focused on the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The main part of the thesis is an econometrical test of five predictions based on ABCT. I used data on the US economy for period 1967 - 2016, which is the longest time period covered in the Austrian empirical literature so far. Since one of the most important variables for ABCT is so called interest rate gap (the difference between market interest rate and natural interest rate), I use three alternative models of this variable. The results of my empirical tests predominantly confirm theoretical predictions of ABCT. It can be shown that the interest rate gap influenced the relative structure of economic activity and resource allocation in a way predicted by ABCT. I also investigate whether the interest rate gap does have a significant impact on stock market valuations (in terms of aggregate level or relative structure), although the results are mostly statistically insignificant. In addition I also described several possible new distortions which may emerge due to unconventional monetary policy. I argue that these distortions should be of primary interest for researchers engaged in the Austrian research program. I devoted special attention to the specifics of monetary policy regime in Japan, where the Bank of Japan regularly intervenes on the stock market. Another theoretical contribution can be found in the second chapter where I respond to the White's (1999) claim that Hayek implicitly repudiated his own version of ABCT in later part of his career, when proposing free competition in money production. I attempt to show that White's conclusion stems from an inadequate interpretation of Hayek's writings. Finally I provide an alternative interpretation of Hayek's work that reveals the compatibility of his early and late theoretical contributions.
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Možnosti využití měnové politiky v podmínkách malé otevřené ekonomiky a nulových úrokových sazeb (příklad ČNB a SNB) / The Options of Use Monetary Policy in Terms of Small Open Economy and zero lower bound (CNB and SNB example)

Suchánek, Marek January 2015 (has links)
The main purpose of this thesis is to analyse the impacts of unconventional monetary policy instruments on small open economies in zero lower-bound situations. Although all unconventional instruments are discussed, an emphasis is placed on currency intervention. Impacts of the various instruments are demonstrated using the economies of Czech Republic and Switzerland as case studies. The thesis will conclude with a comparison of the case studies.

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