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Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivosReche, Cleverton Santos 28 June 2017 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2017-06-28 / Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study. / Atualmente as grandes metrópoles buscam melhorar a qualidade de vida de sua população em aspectos a mobilidade urbana. O etanol é um biocombustível renovável, de grande relevância para o Brasil, porque é um combustível limpo. O aumento do seu consumo frente a outros combustíveis fósseis poderá ter um impacto positivo na redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A pergunta de pesquisa que norteou o estudo foi: quais seriam os cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030? Para tanto, este trabalho adotou o formato de estudos independentes e sequenciais, somando ao todo, 3 estudos. O estudo I foi realizado, a partir de uma busca na base de dados Web of Science, com o objetivo de verificar a construção do conhecimento do tema “Cenários Prospectivos”, por meio da identificação das principais publicações e autores, a partir de uma análise bibliométrica. Foram encontrados 232 artigos, os quais foram classificados por ordem decrescente do autor mais citado para o menos citado. Este estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de uma análise fatorial exploratória e foram identificados cinco fatores. Na sequência, foi desenvolvido o estudo II com o objetivo de revisar e comparar as metodologias de cenários prospectivos para identificar os métodos mais utilizados e realizar a comparação entre os métodos. Os artigos foram separados em grupos de relevância pelo tema para, posteriormente, realizar uma análise comparativa, fornecendo uma visão dos aspectos práticos do planejamento de cenários, como a seleção e o número apropriado de cenários para validação. Por fim, foi elaborado o estudo III com o objetivo de propor cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030. A coleta dos dados foi a partir do envio de um questionário a especialistas sobre o tema, via internet, seguindo as diretrizes do método Delphi. Foram elaborados 3 cenários prospectivos: um cenário provável, um cenário exploratório e um cenário normativo. Os cenários tiveram como base o contexto do setor sucroenergético, por meio das incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças e a análise de ambientes complexos apresentados no estudo.
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Development of a clinical feeding assessment instrument to identify oropharyngeal dysphagia in high-risk neonatesViviers, Maria Magdalena January 2016 (has links)
There is a dearth of validated neonatal feeding assessment instruments available for
use in clinical practice in resource-constrained developing contexts. The Neonatal
Feeding Assessment Scale (NFAS) was developed to identify and diagnose
oropharyngeal dysphagia (OPD) in neonates. The main aim of the study was to
develop and test the psychometric performance of a clinical assessment scale for
the early identification and diagnosis of OPD in the high-risk neonatal population in
South Africa. To meet the main aim, the research project was divided into three
separate studies.
The research design across the three studies was an exploratory sequential mixedmethod
design. The NFAS was developed using the Delphi method in the first study.
Two international and three South African speech-language therapists (SLTs)
formed the expert panel that participated in two rounds of electronic questioning to
develop the instrument. For the second and third studies, a comparative crosssectional
within-subject design was used. In the second study the participants were
20 neonates with a median age of 35.0 weeks gestational age (GA) in a 29-bed
neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In the third study 48 participants with a median
age of 35.5 weeks GA were included. During the second study the preliminary
psychometric performance of the NFAS was determined and in the third study, the
final psychometric properties of the NFAS were determined to describe the validity
and reliability of the NFAS.
The NFAS was developed and approved, using expert collaboration through the
Delphi method in the first study. All participants agreed on the need for the
development of a valid clinical feeding assessment instrument to use with the highrisk
neonatal population. The initial NFAS consisted of 240 items across 8 sections;
after the Delphi process was implemented, the final format was reduced to 211 items
across 6 sections. The final format of the NFAS is scored using a binary scoring
system guiding the clinician to identify the presence or absence of OPD. All
members agreed on the format, the scoring system and the feeding constructs
addressed in the final format of the NFAS.
The second study showed that 9 out of 20 participants presented with OPD on the
NFAS. Comparison of NFAS results with modified barium swallow studies (MBSS). indicated that all participants with OPD were correctly identified (100% specificity).
The sensitivity was 78.6%, indicating that three participants were falsely identified
with OPD on the NFAS. The instrument took approximately 30 minutes to complete
during observation of a habitual feeding session with the mother. Inter-rater reliability
was determined on 50% (n=10) of the study sample. Substantial agreement (80%)
was obtained between two raters in five of the six sections of the NFAS and on the
diagnostic outcome of the scale. The preliminary performance of the NFAS appeared
to be promising. The formal validation process of the NFAS then followed on a larger
sample in the third study.
Results of the third study indicated that 15 of the 48 participants were identified with
OPD on the NFAS, whereas 14 of these 15 infants were diagnosed on MBSS. A
sensitivity score of 78.6% was obtained, with specificity determined to be 88.2% for
the newly developed NFAS. The subsequent accuracy of the NFAS to identify OPD
correctly was 85.4% when compared with the MBSS outcome. Inter-rater reliability
was determined using 35% of the sample. The agreement on overall instrument
outcome between the two raters was considered substantial beyond chance, with
Cohen's Kappa at 0.598, with an asymptotic standard error of 0.211. The scale may
be of use to SLTs working without MBSS equipment and to reach underserved
preterm neonates. Inexperienced SLTs may benefit from observational prompts
provided by the NFAS. The NFAS may be suitable for use in South Africa and similar
developing contexts to identify and diagnose high-risk neonates with OPD. / Thesis (DPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology / DPhil / Unrestricted
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Problémy rozvoje vnějších periferií Česka: modelový příklad Jáchymovska / Problems of regional development of external periphery of Czechia: Jáchymovsko region case studyMarková, Petra January 2010 (has links)
The main objective of this work is to contribute to the border periphery regions research at a field of usage of modern spatial development instruments. We verify the sustainability and the range of application on a concrete model location of Jachymovsko. The geographical location was revealed as a core development factor. We are presenting an optimal marketing strategy for this region based on an analysis of the environment and the image analysis. This strategy is focused on a consolidation and intensification of promotion of tourism and implementation of an external communication strategy. The quantitative data about a region are supported with the qualitative data from two researches: questionnaire method and Delphi method. Key words: periphery - regional marketing - Delphi method - Jachymovsko
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Propuesta de una guía para el desarrollo de una Project Management Office (PMO) Low Cost en Mypes de Lima-Perú para proyectos de edificaciones multifamiliares a través del Método Delphi / Proposal of a guide for the development of a Project Management Office (PMO) Low Cost in MYPES of Lima – Peru for multifamiliary building projects through the Delphi MethodBerrocal Encalada, Jhonny Ignacio, Tumialan Misari, Eliana Nataly 23 July 2020 (has links)
En la actualidad, el sector construcción ha sido muy relevante en el crecimiento del PBI del Perú. El crecimiento ha sido generado por la cantidad de obras que se están realizando en todo el país; debido a este crecimiento, las micro y pequeñas empresas constructoras han tomado mayor relevancia entre los últimos años por su contribución en proyectos de edificaciones multifamiliares. Se puede denotar la importancia que tienen las MYPEs debido a su aporte al PBI, pero, al no tener un control adecuado de gestión, han tenido problemas para gestionar sus proyectos por lo que su utilidad se ha visto afectada considerablemente. Estas pérdidas han generado que muchas MYPES detengan su participación en el mercado indefinidamente, afectando a la contribución del PBI del sector. Para solucionar la mala gestión de proyectos en las obras de edificaciones multifamiliares, se ha propuesto una guía para el desarrollo de una Project Management Office (PMO) Low Cost, para Micro y Pequeñas empresas que no tengan el capital necesario para invertir en una Project Management Office estándar. Esta guía pretende ser validada a través del método Delphi, recurriendo a los expertos del medio local que tengan experiencia en Gerencia de Proyectos. Los resultados esperados son los de una mejora en el nivel de madurez de las MYPEs tomando en cuenta la mejora en la gestión de proyectos. / Currently, the construction sector has been very relevant in the growth of Peru's GDP. The growth has been generated by the number of works being carried out throughout the country; Due to this growth, micro and small construction companies have become more relevant in recent years for their contribution in multi-family building projects. The importance of the MYPEs due to their contribution to the GDP can be denoted, but, as they did not have adequate management control, they have had problems managing their projects and their utility has been considerably affected. These losses have caused many MYPES to stop their participation in the market indefinitely, affecting the contribution of the sector's GDP. To solve the mismanagement of projects in the works of multi-family buildings, a guide has been proposed for the development of a Project Management Office (PMO) Low Cost, for Micro and Small companies that do not have the necessary capital to invest in a Project Management Standard Office. This guide is intended to be validated through the Delphi method, using experts from the local environment who have experience in Project Management. The expected results are those of an improvement in the maturity level of the MYPEs taking into account the improvement in project management. / Tesis
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Un modelo de gestión del conocimiento académico : estudio de casos en universidades peruanasMorgan Rozas, Milagros 03 1900 (has links)
La presente tesis se encuentra en acceso abierto en el siguiente enlace; http://www.tdx.cat/handle/10803/397746 / Esta tesis tiene como objetivo plantear un modelo alternativo para la gestión del conocimiento académico en las universidades peruanas que integre a sus procesos y principales responsables. Se trata de una investigación descriptiva que emplea el método del Estudio de Casos Múltiple en cinco universidades peruanas (dos privadas y tres públicas). Para validar el protocolo de recogida de datos del Estudio de Casos Múltiple, se utiliza la metodologfa Delphi, consultando con expertos en gestión del conocimiento y en gestión de universidades. Asimismo, aplica un Estudio de Casos Piloto en una sexta universidad con el fin de probar dicho protocolo en una situación real. Presenta tres resultados. Primero, al analizar los modelos de gestión del conocimiento académico que aplican las cinco universidades estudiadas, identifica que dicha gestión es concebida bajo tres enfoques distintos y se realiza de manera intuitiva o por tradición, no de forma sistemática y sin integrar a todos sus procesos y principales responsables. Segundo, los factores criticas de éxito con mayor impacto en la gestión eficaz del conocimiento académico, según las universidades estudiadas son: personal calificado, responsable y comprometido con la investigación; compromiso y convicción de la alta dirección; cultura organizacional que fomente la creación, intercambio y utilización del conocimiento; y, actitud y capacidad de aprendizaje del personal de la universidad. Tercero, detecta los componentes de medición del impacto del modelo de gestión del conocimiento académico propuesto para las universidades peruanas por etapa de la gestión del conocimiento académico (creación, intercambio y utilización) y por proceso de la universidad (enseñanza y aprendizaje; investigación, y transferencia o servicios a la sociedad). Concluye que el modelo alternativo para la gestión del conocimiento académico desarrollado en esta investigación, es susceptible de ser aplicado en los tres enfoques identificados en las universidades que formaron parte del Estudio de Casos Múltiple. Sus componentes fundamentales incluyen el planeamiento, el seguimiento, la gestión de los procesos, los principios, métodos, técnicas, herramientas y tecnologías que se combinan en un sistema con el fin de obtener un resultado cuyos indicadores evidencian el cumplimiento de la misión y los objetivos de la universidad. / This thesis aims to propose an alternative model for the management of academic knowledge in Peruvian universities, to integrate their processes and principal users. This descriptive research uses Multiple Case Study methodology in five Peruvian universities (two private and three public). To validate the data collection protocol of the Multiple Case Study, the Delphi methodology is employed, which was validated by experts in knowledge management and management of universities. As well, a Pilot Case Study is conducted at a sixth university to test the protocol in a real situation. This research generated three results. First, by analyzing the academic knowledge management models applied at the five Peruvian universities studied, it identifies three different approaches that management executes intuitively or by tradition, not systematically, and without integrating all processes and main participants. Second, the critical success factors with the greatest impact on the effective management of academic knowledge, according to the universities studied, are the following: the presence of qualified personnel, who are responsible and commited to investigation; commitment and convlction of senior management; an organizational culture that encourages the creation, sharing and use of knowledge; and the attitude and learning ability of the university staff. Third, it detects the components that measure the impact of the academic knowledge management model proposed for the Peruvian universities in tenns of the academic knowledge management stages (creation, exchange and use) and university processes (teaching and learning; research; transfer or services to the society). lt concludes that the alternative model for the academic knowledge management proposed through this research, applies to the three approaches identified in the universities that were part of the Multiple Case Study. lts basic components include planning, monitoring, management processes, principies, methods, techniques, tools and technologies, combined into a system to obtain a result whose indicators show compliance with the mission and goals of the university
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Proposal of quality indicators for cardiac rehabilitation after acute coronary syndrome in Japan: a modified Delphi method and practice test / 日本における急性冠症候群に対する心臓リハビリテーションの質指標の提案―修正デルファイ法および実地調査―Ohtera, Shosuke 24 July 2017 (has links)
京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(社会健康医学) / 乙第13121号 / 論社医博第10号 / 社新制||医||9(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科社会健康医学系専攻 / (主査)教授 川村 孝, 教授 妹尾 浩, 教授 福原 俊一 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Public Health / Kyoto University / DFAM
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Measuring risk attitudes of Quebec dairy and hog producersLegault, Benoit January 1990 (has links)
No description available.
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Potenciál zavedení integrované výuky na českých školách z pohledu vybraných učitelů / The potential of integrated science's implementation in Czech schools in selected teachers' perspectiveKolafová, Barbora January 2021 (has links)
This thesis is about the possibilities of including integrated science subjects teaching at czech schools. It presents historical milestones that had an impact on education and the current state of teaching science subjects in the Czech Republic. Because of a declining interest of students in natural sciences, the several newer teaching strategies of proven foreign research are elaborated in the theoretical part of the work. The research of this work is focused on the opinions of a selected sample of teachers, which are related to their idea of the ideal concept of integrated teaching in the implementation of established in Czech schools. Another goal of the work is to reveal the pros and cons of this form of teaching. The research was conducted on a selected sample of teachers which were willing to engage in research voluntarily. The research questions should revealed teachers claims on four categories - strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of integrated teaching, which was included in the second round of assessment. The ideal concept of integrated teaching from the perspective of the interviewed teachers was also identified in the first round. Data from the first round were given by respondents in the second and third rounds for evaluation according to relevance, which ranked the...
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Use of Building Energy Simulation Software in Early-Stage of Design Process / Användning av energisimuleringsprogram i tidiga skeden av byggprocessenLi, Beidi January 2017 (has links)
In traditional planning process, energy analysts work on finalized architectural designs and have limited capability to amend inefficient energy features such as high aspect ratio. Energy efficiency being a major part of sustainable design, the need for performance-oriented design tools has become imminent. There is a wide range of energy simulation tools across the world. Crawley et al. (2005) proposes a plain comparison of the most common ones based on vendor-supplied information. The present report aims to identify simulation tools that can help architects making energy-efficient design decisions in early stage of building process and the most suitable programs will be tested on a standard case in Stockholm area with respect to their architecture, functionalities, usability and limitations.
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A Delphi Study To Construct A Script Concordance Test For Spiritual And Religious Competence In CounselingChristmas, Christopher 01 January 2013 (has links)
The need to address spiritual and religious issues is well established in the counseling literature and in accreditation standards, however, many graduates counseling students do not feel prepared to address these issues. In the United States, the vast majority of clients consider themselves to be spiritual or religious, so counselors who lack competence in addressing spiritual and religious issues in counseling are likely to offer ineffective or perhaps unethical care to clients. Counselor educators must improve education and assessment in this critical specialty area of counseling. Of primary concern is a student’s ability to demonstrate spiritual competence in counseling. The 2009 ASERVIC Spiritual Competencies offer the most comprehensive standard of spiritual competence in counseling in any mental health profession, however there is no reliable and standardized assessment that measures demonstrated spiritual competency. Competency can best be measured when the examinee makes choices in a context that is similar or the same as that in which he or she will practice, therefore an effective competency measurement must include client cases. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a case based assessment for measuring clinical judgment in situations of uncertainty, called a Script Concordance Test, could be constructed by experts using the Delphi Method. This instrument was based on the 2009 ASERVIC Spiritual Competencies as the standard for demonstrated competence. iv The results of this study indicated that expert practitioners and educators could come to consensus on appropriate cases, appropriate competencies to measure in each case, items to assess competency in each case, and an instrument that included items assessing all 14 of the 2009 Spiritual Competencies. Additionally, the constructed instrument demonstrated excellent test retest reliability and adequate internal reliability. There are several implications for counselor education, First, this study provides evidence that expert practitioners and educators can come to consensus to construct a highly contextual instrument to measures clinical decision making about spiritual competence in counseling. Second, a promising new type of instrument with excellent reliability and strong content validity has been introduced to the field of counselor education. Third, with appropriate assessment, counselor education programs can begin to measure student competence, in terms of clinical judgment, on addressing spiritual and religions issues in counseling over time because this instrument is appropriate for use at different intervals throughout professional development. Fourth, the format of this instrument is also useful for educational purposes and reflective practice. Finally, the theoretical foundations of the Delphi Method and script concordance tests are compatible with one another and with instrument development. The researcher recommends that future studies to construct script concordance tests for other specialty areas of competence employ and refine this method.
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