This paper examines the extent to which thin markets in conjunction with tax induced kinks in the budget constraint cause consumer demand to be skewed. To illustrate the principles I focus on the demand for owner-occupied housing. Housing units are indivisible and heterogeneous while tastes for housing are at least partly idiosyncratic, causing housing markets to be thin. In addition, prior to 1998, capital gains tax provisions introduced a sharp kink in the budget constraint of existing owner-occupiers in search of a new home: previous homeowners under age 55 paid no capital gains tax if they bought up, but were subject to capital gains tax if they bought down. I first characterize the economic conditions under which households err on the up or down side when choosing a home in the presence of a thin market and a kinked budget constraint. I then specify an empirical model that takes such effects into account. Results based on Monte Carlo experiments indicate that failing to allow for skewness in the demand for housing leads to biased estimates of the elasticities of demand when such skewness is actually present. In addition, estimates based on American Housing Survey data suggest that such bias is substantial: controlling for skewness reduces the price elasticity of demand among previous owner-occupiers from 1.6 to 0.3. Moreover, 58% of previous homeowners err on the up while only 42% err on the down side. Thus, housing demand is skewed. / Ph. D.

Submitted by Maike Costa (maiksebas@gmail.com) on 2016-04-13T13:50:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivo total.pdf: 2010347 bytes, checksum: 3a95a7a08d68f7438a013ab7bc0d2bc3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-13T13:50:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivo total.pdf: 2010347 bytes, checksum: 3a95a7a08d68f7438a013ab7bc0d2bc3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-04 / The thesis studies, in three chapters, on the provision of public goods in municipalities. The first chapter puts in competition two alternative specifications, one on the demand side and another on the supply side, to a set of 5285 municipalities data for 2010 in order to test the hypothesis that the relevance of the models that explain the behavior local government spending can depend on the size of the population of the jurisdictions. The econometric methodology uses a combination of Test J proposed by Davidson and MacKinnon (1981), with the threshold suggested by Hansen (2000), as a data screening method to test whether the response of local governments to their constituents is stable between small and large municipalities. Results show that the median voter model applies to smaller cities, with great population size ranging between 13604 and 13661 inhabitants, depending on the congestion function used. Nevertheless, it rejected in 2293 municipalities, for which the model-oriented supply fits better. In the second chapter, these alternative models of determination of public provision in order to measure the impact of the size of cities on the quality of public services applies - via analysis of advertising and rivalry of goods - in 5268 Brazilian municipalities based on the Theory of Clubs. For both models, the results point to the existence of spatial correlation between municipalities, suggesting that spending patterns in a given locality influence on the fiscal decisions of neighbors. Proves the hypothesis that the size of the clubs, and the cost of utilities differentiate the results of the provision of action, supporting the literature on the subject which argues that in smaller jurisdictions proximity of voters with its public officials exerts more pressure and control over their political acts, and that aggregate individual preferences have less heterogeneity and can represent the community as a whole. This result yields a larger congestion effect to the larger cities, which goes against the international literature. Finally, using a set of data that make up Brazilian localities Public Consortia Inter-municipal public services, the third chapter aims to establish empirical evidence for a phenomenon called by Oates (1988) as "zoo-effect." According to this effect, the lowest level of expenditure in smaller towns should not be explained by the smaller clusters, but simply by the fact that certain categories of spending - like a zoo - they need a minimum population size to be provided. Thus, the positive relationship between population size and local spending on public services does not take into account the fact that in the most populous cities, the basket of services offered is broader and more diverse, and for this reason, estimates of existing congestion tend to be overestimated. By spatial statistics confirmed the hypothesis of the zoo effect on municipalities, and that the more diversified the range of services expands the range of services in neighboring areas, which explains the interaction between the municipalities as a way to get better and higher level of public services to its citizens. Evidence shows that the intensity of the effect depends on the urban-rural gradient, with the biggest phenomenon in urban areas due to more substantial economies of scale in these locations. / A tese versa, em três capítulos, sobre a provisão de bens públicos nos municípios brasileiros. O primeiro capítulo coloca em competição duas especificações alternativas, uma do lado da demanda e outra do lado da oferta, para um conjunto de dados de 5285 municípios brasileiros para 2010, a fim de testar a hipótese de que a relevância dos modelos que explicam o comportamento das despesas públicas locais pode depender do tamanho da população das jurisdições. A metodologia econométrica usa a combinação do Teste J, proposto por Davidson e MacKinnon (1981), com o Threshold, sugerido por Hansen (2000), como um método de triagem de dados capaz de testar se a resposta dos governos locais aos seus eleitores é estável entre os municípios de pequeno e de grande porte. Os resultados permitem inferir que o modelo do eleitor mediano aplica-se às cidades menores, com tamanho ótimo populacional variando entre 13604 e 13661 habitantes, dependendo da função de congestionamento utilizada. Não obstante, é rejeitado em 2293 municípios, para os quais o modelo orientado para a oferta apresenta melhor ajuste. No segundo capítulo, aplica-se os referidos modelos alternativos de determinação da provisão pública a fim de mensurar o impacto do tamanho das cidades sobre a qualidade dos serviços públicos - via análise da publicidade e da rivalidade dos bens – em 5268 municípios brasileiros baseado na Teoria dos Clubes. Para os dois modelos, os resultados apontam a existência da correlação espacial entre os municípios, sugerindo que os padrões de gastos em determinada localidade influencia nas decisões fiscais de vizinhos. Comprova-se a hipótese de que o tamanho dos clubes e o custo dos serviços públicos diferenciam os resultados da ação de provisão, corroborando com a literatura sobre o tema a qual defende que em jurisdições menores a proximidade dos eleitores com seus agentes públicos exerce maior pressão e controle sobre seus atos políticos, e que preferências individuais agregadas apresentam menor heterogeneidade e podem representar a comunidade como um todo. Este resultado gera um efeito congestionamento maior para as maiores cidades, o que vai de encontro à literatura internacional. Por fim, usando um conjunto de dados de localidades brasileiras que formam Consórcios Públicos Intermunicipais de serviços públicos, o terceiro capítulo visa estabelecer evidências empíricas para um fenômeno denominado por Oates (1988) como “efeito-zoo”. De acordo com esse efeito, o nível mais baixo de despesas em cidades menores não deve ser explicado pela menor aglomeração, mas simplesmente pelo fato de que certas categorias de gastos - como um zoológico - precisam de um tamanho mínimo populacional para serem fornecidos. Destarte, a relação positiva entre o tamanho da população e o gasto local em serviços públicos não leva em conta o fato de que nos municípios mais populosos, a cesta de serviços ofertados é mais ampla e mais diversificada, e por essa razão as estimativas de congestionamento existentes tendem a ser superestimadas. Através da estatística espacial confirmou-se a hipótese do efeito zoo nos municípios brasileiros, e que a maior diversificação na gama de serviços expande a oferta de serviços em áreas vizinhas, justificando a interação entre os municípios como forma de se obter melhor e maior nível de serviços públicos para seus cidadãos. As evidências apontam que a intensidade do efeito depende do gradiente urbano-rural, sendo o fenômeno maior em áreas urbanizadas, devido às economias de escala mais substanciais nessas localidades.

[pt] Esse trabalho investiga o papel da descoberta de produto na demanda por jogos eletrônicos. Nós mostramos que o padrão de vendas para jogos eletrônicos é bastante variado, com alguns jogos tendo suas vendas imediatamente depois de seus lançamentos, e outros com caldas de venda maiores. Para entender essas diferenças nós propomos um modelo de demanda em que consumidores são periodicamente informados sobre a existência de um jogo e exploramos o padrão de vendas que isso implica. Em seguida aplicamos o modelo aos dados usando dados de preços e vendas da plataforma digital Steam e dados e busca online do google trends. Nossos resultados sugerem que vendas três meses depois do lançamento são em média metade do que seria caso consumidores tivessem informação completa. / [en] This paper investigates the role of product discovery in the demand for video games. We show that the lifetime sales patterns for video games vary widely, with some games selling most of their units in the first months after launch and others having longer tails. To understand these differences we propose a demand model in which consumers are periodically informed about the existence of a game and explore the lifetime sales patterns that this implies. We then take it to the data using price and sales figures from the Steam digital platform and web search figures from google trends. Our results imply that sales three months after launch are on average half of what they should be were consumers fully informed.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.