It is a commonly held theory that population is related to levels of social and economic development within a given country or society. The work of Becker in the early 1960s gave much impetus to studies of the relationship between fertility, mortality and migration, on the one hand and their determinants, on the other. The determinants were seen as the social, economic, political and cultural settings of the countries or socities under study. The thesis attempts to apply this theory in relation to the demographic development of Zimbabwe. The thesis postulates that socio-economic differentials within Zimbabwe are sufficiently pronounced as to begin to affect the demographic structure of the country. It is with this in mind that three objectives are set for the thesis: a) the exploration of the demographic structure of the population of Zimbabwe, as a means of furthering the understanding of the nature of the demographic development of the country; b) the development and utilization of data estimation techniques as a means of overcoming the deficiencies in the data collected from official sources; and, c) the investigation of the link between population change, on the one hand, with social and economic development on the other. The hypothesis proceeds through the examination of such social and economic variables as income, education, health and other social indicators in relation to fertility, migration and mortality. Due to the inadequacy of data on the demographic variables, the thesis estimates such data using the recognized relationships among the demographic variables. The estimated demographic measures are subjected to correlation and regression analysis after the development structure of the country has been explored through factor and cluster analysis. Three geographical scales are used in the analyses viz. the province, the district and the local authority area. Use of the three geographical scales exposes the dangers of extrapolating and generalizing national patterns of demographic, social and economic development to the levels of the district and the local authority, as well as exposing different features of the development profile of the country of Zimbabwe. The thesis concludes that there is a differentiation in the demographic profile of the various geographical regions of the country, based on inequitable distribution of resources in the past when the country was under white settler colonial rule. The advent of independence and the introduction of policies designed to reduce such inequalities had not had time to work by the time the 1982 Census, from whose data the study is based, was taken. The thesis therefore recommends that further censuses are required if the effect of such policies are to be measured. It further recommends the use of cross-temporal instead of the cross-sectional data which was applied in this study.

Published Article / The contribution of tourism to the development of local regions is prolific, as it creates jobs and stimulates the economy (Lopez-Bonilla & Sanz-Altmira 2010; O'Sullivan & Jackson 2010; Saayman & Rossow 2011; Visser 2005). Events are an important motivation for tourists to travel. In this sense, there are three types of events: business events, sport events and festivals (Getz 2007). Festivals and festival tourism is a booming form of event tourism and the importance of festivals are recognized in both national and international spheres (Yang, Gu & Cen 2011). With this in mind, it is imperative that festival organisers have adequate information pertaining to the demographics and service delivery expectations of festival goers. The data for this investigation was collected during the 2013 Bloemfontien Vryfees and the findings report on the demographic composition of the festival goers and their service delivery expectations.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can assist in using information from census data to investigate questions for national and local government planning purposes, such as socio-economic profiles and needs of communities. I will be doing this on the data from the Ethiopian census, scheduled for 2006. . As no Ethiopian geo-referenced data is available at this stage. I am using the 10% sample of the South African Census 2001 data for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), as a hypothetical population. KZN was chosen as this provides a setting with urban and rural populations, as well as mountainous and flat areas, and so is in some ways similar to Ethiopia. The questions to be asked of the Ethiopian census data are of the form: · What exists at a specific location or in a specific area? (eg what health facilities are there, what is the population)? · What access does the population have to facilities in the area? Does the road network need to be improved to resolve the problem of access · Where are groups of people in greatest need of … (eg where are there clusters of people with disabilities, and are there facilities for them) · What are the characteristics of ... (eg female headed households) and what are these related to (eg HIV/AIDS or migrant labour?) · What changes need to be made to infrastructure to increase service to communities in need? The results for the hypothetical population show that there are areas with high unemployment rates, low school attendance and education levels, high levels of female headed household, and difficulties of access to educational and health facilities. Many households do not have toilet facilities, and obtain water from rivers, which could impact on the health of the communities. Migrant workers were investigated to see if these were likely to be migrants from neighbouring countries, or from other provinces. The numbers in the hypothetical population in these cases are small, so little can be concluded from this.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:54:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DIRCE SAYURI OTAKE GUOLLO.pdf: 1073948 bytes, checksum: 3c37949ac45c5ba805d30bc1620419a0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-01 / Introduction: Dengue is one of the arboviruses that mostly affects people worldwide, with its early diagnosis and treatment being necessary to avoid complications that may lead to death. Objective: Describe cases of dengue as per demographic aspects; analyze the evolution of morbimortality in the cases of dengue reported and describe the spatial distribution of deaths by dengue. Methodology: Descriptive analytical study using a cross-sectional retrospective design with cases of dengue reported in the municipality of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso state, between 2007 and 2011. Data were obtained in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN, as per its acronym in Portuguese), whose access was provided by the Epidemiological Surveillance Department of the City Health Department of Cuiabá. The cases of dengue were classified as classic and severe dengue. The criterion adopted to confirm the cases of classic dengue was clinical/epidemiological/laboratorial and severe cases had only laboratorial confirmation. Results: A total of 18,497 cases of dengue were diagnosed in Cuiabá. Among these, 98.6% (p<0.01) occurred in the urban area. Women were more affected by dengue (53.0%) (p<0.01). The most affected age range was between 5 and 14 years (25.09%) (p<0.01). Among the 18,497 cases of dengue, 18,021 (97.50%) evolved to the classic form, 476 (2.58%) to the severe form (p<0.01) and 19 (0.1%) to death. The year of 2009 showed the greatest prevalence of the classic (62.16%) and the severe (1.94%) forms of dengue. This period also showed a greater prevalence of deaths (p=0.95), a higher number of hospitalized patients for both clinical forms of the disease (p=0.83), as well as a greater coefficient of the incidence of dengue in its severe form (2,178/100,000 inhabitants) and a greater coefficient of mortality (2.4/100,000 inhabitants). The greatest prevalence of hospitalizations due to severe cases of dengue was observed in the age range between 5 and 14 years, however, the highest rate of mortality occurred in children under one year of age and in adults aged between 55 and 64 years. The greatest prevalence of deaths by dengue occurred in the south region of the city (31.58%). Conclusion: The urban zone was the place with the greatest prevalence of dengue cases and women were more affected. The age range between 5 and 14 years was more affected by the disease, with higher rates of hospitalization (p=0.83) and mortality (p=0.95). During the studied years, with exception for 2008, the prevalence of the clinical forms of dengue was found to be dependent on the age range (p<0.01). The analysis of the incidence of the clinical forms of dengue by age range, separately, revealed that children under one year of age, between 1-4 years, 15-24 years and 55-64 years are independent on the year of evaluation (p>0.05); and the others are dependent (p<0.01). The classic form of dengue had a greater prevalence in all age ranges. The greatest prevalence of deaths by dengue occurred in the south region of Cuiabá (31.58%). A migration is observed in the changes of epidemiological profile of the morbimortality by dengue for both clinical forms of the disease. The year of 2009 was atypical, which is probably associated to an epidemic. / Introdução: A dengue é uma das arboviroses que mais afeta o homem em todo o mundo, sendo necessário o diagnóstico precoce e tratamento para evitar complicações que possam levar ao óbito. Objetivo: Descrever os casos de dengue segundo os aspectos demográficos; analisar a evolução da morbimortalidade dos casos notificados da dengue e descrever a distribuição espacial dos óbitos por dengue. Metodologia: Estudo descritivo, analítico tipo retrospectivo transversal dos casos de dengue notificados no Município de Cuiabá-MT, no período de 2007 a 2011. Os dados foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), disponibilizados pela Vigilância de Epidemiologia da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Cuiabá. Os casos da dengue foram classificados em dengue clássica e grave. O critério adotado para confirmação dos casos de dengue clássica foi clínico/epidemiológico/laboratorial e os casos graves somente laboratoriais. Resultados: Foram diagnosticados 18.497 casos da dengue no Município de Cuiabá. Desses 98,6% (p<0,01) ocorreram na zona urbana. As mulheres foram as mais acometidas pela dengue (53,0%) (p<0,01). A faixa etária mais afetada foi entre 5 a 14 anos (25,09%) (p<0,01). Dentre os 18.497 casos de dengue, 18.021 (97,50%) evoluíram para a forma clássica, 476 (2,58%) para a forma grave (p<0,01) e 19 (0,1%) para o óbito. No ano de 2009 ocorreu a maior prevalência das formas clássicas (62,16%) e grave (1,94%) da dengue. Também tiveram maior prevalência, neste período os óbitos (p=0,95) e o maior número de pacientes hospitalizados para as duas formas clínicas da doença (p=0,83), assim como, maior coeficiente da incidência da dengue na sua forma grave (2.178/100.000 hab) e maior coeficiente de mortalidade (2,4/100.000hab.). A maior prevalência de internações hospitalares por casos graves ocorreu na faixa etária de 5 a 14 anos, porém a maior taxa de mortalidade ocorreu em crianças menores de um ano e em adultos com idade entre 55 a 64 anos. A maior prevalência de óbitos por dengue ocorreu na região sul da cidade (31,58%). Conclusão: A zona urbana foi o local onde ocorreu a maior prevalência dos casos da dengue e o sexo feminino foi o mais acometido. A faixa etária entre 5-14 anos foi a mais acometida pela doença, com maiores taxas de internação (p=0,83) e mortalidade (p=0,95) . Durante os anos estudados, exceto o ano de 2008, foi identificado que a prevalência das formas clínicas da dengue é dependente da faixa etária (p<0,01). Quando analisada a incidência das formas clínicas da dengue por faixa etária, separadamente, identificou-se que menor de 1 ano, 1-4 anos, 15- 24 anos e 55-64 anos, são independentes do ano de avaliação (p>0,05); as demais são dependentes (p<0,01). A forma clássica da dengue teve maior prevalência em todas as faixas etárias. A maior prevalência de óbitos por dengue ocorreu na região sul da cidade de Cuiabá (31,58%). Observa-se uma migração nas mudanças no perfil epidemiológico da morbimortalidade da dengue para as duas formas clínicas da doença. O ano de 2009 foi um ano atípico que provavelmente pode estar associado a uma epidemia.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:54:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FRANCIELLE MOREIRA RODRIGUES.pdf: 1591315 bytes, checksum: a1cb645a3a1ea0a383c87614c43cbc06 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-01-07 / Introduction: Dengue it is an acute febrile disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti vector whose etiologic agent is the Flavivirus genus and proliferates through specific breeding, as the containers of standing water. This is a typically urban arbovirus and is considered a serious public health problem. The disease has four distinct serotypes and these (DEN1 - DEN2 - DEN3 and DEN4). Objective: This study aims to outline the epidemiological clinical profile of dengue cases in Iporá-GO municipality between the years 2009 to 2013. Methods: Data were collected on dengue cases in the city of Iporá - GO available on the chips notification filed by the Epidemiological Surveillance Center (NVE) and data from the National Health Foundation (FUNASA) both in the municipality. For data analysis, was calculated relative frequency (%) and presented in tables and graphs. Results: During the period were reported 1.283 cases of dengue, however only 1.197 were confirmed. The year 2010 represented 65% of notifications. As for gender-specific, noted a higher incidence in women with 58% index. In relation to age the highest rate was in individuals 11-20 and 41-50 years. The diagnosis through epidemiological clinical analysis was performed in 70% of cases and 30% through laboratory tests. In the test loop test performed in all cases, only 20% were positive. The clinical condition of patients remained within the common, with symptoms of vomiting, diarrhea, headache, myalgia and fever. In the distribution of dengue by neighborhood, the central region of the city had the highest index. Conclusion: The profile of dengue in Iporá was represented by adult female subjects, with 2010 atypical within the crop, and the diagnostic method used is the clinical epidemiological. The symptoms remained within the parameters characteristic of the disease. / Introdução: A dengue é uma doença febril aguda transmitida pelo vetor Aedes aegypti cujo agente etiológico é do gênero Flavivirus e se prolifera através de criadouros específicos, como recipientes que contenham água parada. Trata-se de uma arbovirose tipicamente urbana e é considerado um grave problema de saúde pública. A doença apresenta quatro sorotipos distintos sendo estes (DEN 1 DEN2 DEN3 e DEN4). Objetivo: Esse estudo teve como principal objetivo traçar o perfil clínico epidemiológico dos casos de dengue no município de Iporá-GO, no período de 2009 a 2013. Métodos: Foram coletadas informações sobre casos de dengue no Município de Iporá-GO, disponíveis nas fichas de notificação arquivadas pelo Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica (NVE) e dados da Fundação Nacional de Saúde (FUNASA), ambos no município. Para análise dos dados, foi realizado o cálculo de frequência relativa (%) e apresentado por meio de tabelas e gráficos. Resultados: Durante o período foram notificados 1.283 casos de dengue, porém somente 1.197 foram confirmados. O ano de 2010 representou 65% de notificações. Quanto à predominância por sexo, notou-se maior incidência em mulheres, com índice de 58%. Já com relação à faixa etária, o maior índice foi em indivíduos de 11 a 20 anos e 41 a 50 anos. O diagnóstico efetuado a partir de análise clínica epidemiológica foi realizado em 70% dos casos e 30% através de exames laboratoriais. Nos testes da prova do laço realizados em todos os casos, apenas 20% tiveram resultado positivo. O quadro clínico dos pacientes se manteve dentro do comum, com sintomas de vômito, diarreia, cefaleia, mialgia e febre. Na distribuição da dengue por bairro, a região central do município obteve o maior índice. Conclusão: O perfil da dengue em Iporá foi representado por indivíduos adultos do sexo feminino, com o ano de 2010 atípico, com significativo aumento do número de casos dentro do recorte, e o método diagnóstico utilizado é o clínico epidemiológico. Os sintomas se mantiveram dentro dos parâmetros característicos da doença.

Introduction: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region worst affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the world. South Africa (SA) is the country with the highest population of people living with HIV/AIDS in the world and Mpumalanga province is the province with the second highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS in SA. The district of Gert Sibande has the highest prevalence in the province of Mpumalanga (38.9%) in 2006. Since many patients living with HIV/AIDS usually present to district hospitals as the first point of contact it is important to understand the implications of HIV/AIDS in a resource limited health system. Study setting: The setting for this study was Amajuba Memorial Hospital (AMH) a district hospital in the Gert Sibande district of the Mpumalanga province. Objective: To analyse direct costs of providing inpatient care to adult patients with HIV/AIDS-related illnesses at AMH from the perspective of the provider (hospital) Study methods: The population of study comprised adult patients with HIV/AIDS-related illnesses admitted to the medical wards during the period of October 2009 and March 2010 at AMH. A detailed retrospective record review of patients admitted to the adult wards at AMH with HIV/AIDS-related illnesses over a 6-month period was conducted. After the record review the costs were estimated using standard costs and utilisation. Demographic and clinical patient profiles were determined then descriptive statistics were calculated with total costs as an outcome variable. Subsequently univariate and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results: The demographic and clinical profiles revealed that most patients admitted with HIV/AIDS-related illnesses were: between the ages of 39 & 49 years (35.3%), male (54.9%), urban residents (82.0%), unemployed (87.2%), single (80.5%), were not on HAART (70.7%), had CD4 counts between 0 & 50 x 106 /L (38.3%), had pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) (38.4%), were admitted for the first time (60.9%) and of the total admitted to hospital 79.0% survived the index admission during the study period. Descriptive statistics of the continuous data variables were determined. Minimums, maximums, inter-quartile ratios, means and modes were determined and tabulated. 5 Consultation costs followed by investigation costs were the two major contributors to total admission costs (77.7% of the median total admission cost). Univariate analysis revealed these significant associations with total admission costs: admission diagnosis, discharge diagnosis, first admission, outcome, pre-admission consults and preceding admissions. In multivariate regression, admission diagnosis and pre-admission consults were analysed. Significant associations were found between the following categories: retroviral disease versus other diseases (p=0.001), retroviral disease versus anaemia (p=0.035), no pre-admission consults versus 1 pre-admission consult (p=0.007), no pre-admission consult versus 4 pre-admission consults (p=0.039) and no pre-admission consult versus 5 or more pre-admission consults (p=0.006). Conclusion: In our study we successfully determined demographic and clinical profiles of patients admitted with HIV-related illnesses at AMH. Emerging from the results of our study were patterns of burden of HIV disease, health seeking behaviour and risky sexual behaviour that all had implications for admission costs in the hospital. Major cost drivers were consultation and investigation costs, which were increased significantly by disease categories; other diseases, anaemia and PTB. Pre-admission consults emerged as a cost reducing parameter in our study. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Clinical Epidemiology / unrestricted

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This thesis aims to explore Indian forced migration to the Cape Colony from 1658 to 1834. The forgotten diaspora‘ of its title refers to the first Indians who had come to the shores of South Africa, long before the arrival—between 1860 and 1911—of the indentured Indians. This diaspora has been forgotten, partially because these migrants came as slaves. The author uses data extracted from the newly transcribed Master of the Orphan Chamber (MOOC) series and slave transfers which are housed in the Western Cape Provincial Archives and Records Service (WCARS). The Cape colonial data is considered among the best in the world. Earlier historians such as Victor de Kock, Anna Böeseken, Frank Bradlow and Margaret Cairns, have made us aware of their existence primarily through Transportenkennis and Schepenkennis (transport and shipping information) documents in the Deeds Registry. Not nearly enough, however, is known about these Indian slaves, especially about those who arrived between 1731 and 1834. These lacunae include the number of arrivals; their sex ratios; ages and origins; and the circumstances under which they came. This thesis aims to construct a census of Indian slaves brought to the Cape from 1658 to 1834—along the lines of Philip Curtin's aggregated census of the Trans- Atlantic slave trade, but based on individual case level data coded directly from primary sources. This is the first time the size of the creole population born at the Cape will be established.

Thesis (Ph. D. (Science)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / The objectives of the study were to examine the demographic profile and causes of death of people dying in a hospital and community; and to determine mortality rates, specifically age- and gender-specific mortality rates in a community. The study also compared causes of death assigned to hospital records with causes of death obtained from verbal autopsy reports. Methodology The data used in this thesis were collected in two phases. The first phase involved a retrospective review of all deaths that occurred in the Pietersburg/Mankweng Hospital Complex from 1st January, 2011 to 31st December, 2012. The second phase involved a community-based study using a verbal autopsyto determine cause of death in Dikgale HDSS for the same period. Results A total of 5402 deaths were reported in the hospital and 625 in the community. The majority of deaths in the hospital involved adults in the 15 to 49 year old age group, while in the community more deaths were recorded amongst adults aged 15 to 49 years of age and those in the 65+ year old age group. There were more male deaths in the hospital, while in the community a higher proportion of deaths occurred amongst females. v In children less than1 year old, the cause of death in the hospital was predominantly due to perinatal conditions, particularly preterm birth, low birth weight and birth asphyxia; while in the community, of the 5 deaths in this age group, infectious diseases were recorded as the main cause of death. Amongst children in the 1 to 4 year old age groups causes of hospital deaths were dominated by infectious diseases, injuries and malnutrition; while in the community infectious diseases were the main cause of death. Stillbirths were noted in the hospital with a stillbirth rate of 29.1/1000 deliveries. In the community no stillbirths were reported. More than half of the stillbirths were caused by unexplained intrauterine foetal causes followed by maternal hypertension in pregnancy and placenta abruption. For adults in the 15 to 49 year old age groups infectious diseases, such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, were the leading causes of death in both the hospital and in the community. The proportion of deaths due to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis was significantly greater in the community than in the hospital. Amongst adults in the 50+year old age group non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and cancers were the most common causes of death. In this age group, the hospital recorded more cancer deaths than did the community; while the community recorded more cardiovascular deaths than did the hospital. vi The overall mortality rate in the community was 8.4 deaths per 1000 person-year, with more deaths occurring amongst males (8.9 deaths per 1000 person-year). The mortality rate was high amongst adults in the 65+ year old age group (48.9 deaths per 1000 person-year). When comparing cause-specific mortality between hospital cause of death notification forms and cause of death determined by verbal autopsy reviews, the same top five underlying causes of death were observed, namely: cardiovascular diseases, infectious diseases, diabetes mellitus, malignant neoplasms and respiratory infections. The agreement between causes of death reported on cause of death notification forms and cause of death as a result of a verbal autopsywas 48%. For individual causes, agreement of more than 80% was achieved between cause of death recorded on cause of death notification forms and from verbal autopsy reviews for respiratory infections, diabetes, malignancies and injuries. Infectious diseases (68.5%) and cardiovascular diseases (74.1%) achieved the lowest agreement. In other words, in only 68.5% and 74.1% respectively was the cause of death as recorded on the “cause of death notification” forms the same as the cause of death when reviewed verbally. Furthermore, 13 deaths were recorded as being due to cardiovascular diseases on the “cause of death notification” forms, however, in only 5 of these cases was the cause of death recorded as the same in the verbal autopsy report. In 21 cases cause of death was attributed to infectious diseases on the cause of death notification form, vii while in only 13 of these cases was the cause of death similarly ascribed after verbal autopsy review. Conclusion This study showed that the verbal autopsy instrument has the potential to identify causes of death in a population where deaths occur outside of health facilities. Procedures for death certification and coding of underlying causes of death need to be streamlined in order to improve the reliability of registration data. This will be achieved if medical students and trainee specialists are trained in the completion of cause of death notification forms. Foetal autopsies should be introduced at tertiary hospitals to determine the causes of stillbirths.Antenatal care education for pregnant women should be encouraged because the level of antenatal care has an influence on the health of mothers and their newborns. The government should continue to focus on improving the socio-economic status of the population, while adequate foetal monitoring by health workers may reduce neonatal deaths resulting from preterm births, low birth weight and birth asphyxia. Innovative injury prevention strategies, interventions to control infectious diseases, cancer screening and lifestyle program may reduce adult mortality.

The purpose of this thesis is to substantiate the hypothetical development of a community radio station for a South African National Park, such as the Kruger National Park and to design the programming. As such the thesis has two phases namely a theoretical phase, where the variables and dynamics of the process of community unification, tourism’s ability to alleviate poverty and the central role played by radio are considered, and a creative phase, where the findings of the theoretical phase are applied in the design of the programme. The research leads to a model, and its methodology can be described as applied creative research. In order to arrive at the model, the research investigates a number of dynamics. In the first instance the research investigates a potential audience for such a community radio station. The notion of this potential audience or imagined community is interrogated. The thesis argues that there needs to be a conceptually synthesised audience, consisting of the local ethnic community, and a tourist community and that these two communities have interwoven functions around the provision and exploitation of tourism. Secondly, the thesis argues the demands of the audience synthesis, by investigating the nature of the South African tourism industry, with specific reference to the National Parks. In this section, the interrelatedness of the function and demands of the two communities are posited and developed, so that the groundwork for potential content of the Community Radio Station can be foregrounded. The thesis then interrogates the concept of communication by radio and draws on Marshall McLuhan’s concepts of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ receivers and Walter Ong’s work around primary and secondary orality, amongst others. Here the thesis argues for the way that radio may be used to exploit and develop the synergy of the ethnic and the tourist community. The thesis then moves into the phase, where, through the recognised research process oftriangulation, which includes the synergised two communities (now a ‘Parks Emergent Radio Community’/ PERC), the shared content around the demands of tourism in National Parks, and the communal form of radio are creatively interwoven into a potential or hypothetical programme layout. The study concludes with a consideration of what might be the stumbling blocks in the way of implementing such a triangulated process and notes finances and budgets, training, and most specifically, bureaucratic intervention by licensing authorities as primary obstacles. The thesis argues for the advantages of the development of such a Community Radio Station for National Parks, given the projected steep increment in the tourist trade in South Africa. / Thesis (DPhil (Community Radio))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Drama / unrestricted