This paper presents an algorithm for a dollar bill recognition system. Although this thesis describes it in detail for the specific application of designing a dollar bill recognition system, the algorithm is quite general and can be applied to a variety of pattern recognition problems. The scheme operates on the image of a corner of the bill. Hough transform is used to find the edges and the corner point in the image. If there is any skew in the edges, it is corrected and a 256 x 256 pixel image is obtained. This image is then compressed to an 8 x 8 matrix, and features are extracted from a two dimensional Walsh Transform of this matrix. The process of feature selection is based upon the standard deviations of the Walsh coefficients. These features are then used by a Sequential Classifier for classifying the bill. / Master of Science

Partant de la théorie de la concurrence des monnaies internationales, notre travail de thèseanalyse le rôle du renminbi dans l’économie mondiale. Cette nouvelle approche amène àréfléchir sur la configuration du système monétaire international du XXIe siècle. La premièrepartie retrace la longue marche du dollar qui finira par supplanter progressivement la livresterling. L’inertie monétaire observée pour la livre sterling se retrouve également au niveaudu dollar. De ce fait, la réforme du SMI actuel suivra un chemin semé d’embûches. Le SMIfondé sur le dollar n’est ni efficient, ni équitable. C’est pourquoi, un SMI multipolaire estsouhaitable à long terme. Le polycentrisme monétaire, dont on parle depuis le début durégime des changes flottants, deviendrait alors une réalité. Parmi les concurrents potentiels dudollar, le renminbi se positionne comme un sérieux outsider. D’ailleurs, notre analyse montrequ’il est déjà la troisième monnaie en termes de compétitivité. La deuxième partie metl’accent sur l’internationalisation du renminbi. Depuis les réformes économiques initiées dansles années 1980, la Chine a connu une croissance sans précédent par rapport aux sièclesderniers. Grâce à ce remarquable essor, il est fort possible que le renminbi rejoigne un jour leclub très fermé des monnaies internationales. Mais, la Chine souffre également de nombreuxhandicaps, liés en particulier au contrôle du compte financier et au régime de change. Ce quisuppose que le billet rouge deviendra une monnaie régionale avant d’être internationale. Latroisième partie étudie l’émergence du SMI tripolaire centré sur le dollar, l’euro et le renminbi,et ses conséquences sur l’économie mondiale. Sur la base de notre analyse, nous concluonsque le SMI actuel est déjà en partie tripolaire. Ceci contribue à sa stabilité mais sans résoudrele dilemme de Triffin ni apporter de véritables gains commerciaux à l’économie mondiale.Nous sommes aujourd’hui en train d’évoluer vers un vrai SMI tripolaire, une évolution quidépendra de la compétitivité future de l’euro et du renminbi, de manière à surclasser laposition dominante du dollar. / Based on the theory of international currency competition, our thesis work analyzes the roleof the renminbi in the global economy. This novel approach allows us to reflect on the statusof the international monetary system in the 21st century. The first part follows the longprocess of the dollar, progressively replacing the pound sterling. The monetary inertiaobserved in the pound sterling was also found in the dollar today. Consequently, thereformation of the current IMS follows a path which is full of hazards. The IMS based on thedollar is neither efficient nor equitable. So, a multi-polar IMS is desirable in the long run.Monetary polycentrism, as talked about since the beginning of floating changes, wouldbecome a reality. Among the potential competitors of the dollar, the renminbi plays the role ofan outsider, and our analysis shows that the renminbi is already the third currency in terms ofcompetitivity. The second part focuses on the internationalization of the renminbi. Since theeconomic reforms in the 1980s, China has experienced a significant growth that has neverbeen seen in previous centuries. Taking into account the rise of China, it is entirely possiblefor the renminbi to become a new international currency. However, China still suffers from anumber of handicaps, in particular the control of financial accounts and exchange rate regime,which supposes that the red bill will become a regional currency before being international.The third part analyses the emergence of tri-polar IMS, centered on the dollar, the euro, andthe renminbi, and its consequences on the global economy. According to our analysis, weconclude that the current IMS is already partly tri-polar, which contributes to the stability ofthe IMS without solving the Triffin dilemma, but brings little commercial gain to the globaleconomy. Today, we are evolving towards a real tri-polar IMS. Yet, this evolution depends onthe future competitivity between the euro and the renminbi in such a way as to surpass thedominant position of the dollar.

The thesis examine if the uncovered interest rate parity holds over a 10 year period between Japan and Australia/Norway/USA. The data is collected between February 2001 - December 2010 and is used to, through regression and correlation analysis, explain if the theory holds or not. In the thesis it is also included a simulated portfolio that shows how a carry trading strategy could have been exercised and proof is shown that you can indeed profit as an investor on this kind of trades with low risk. The thesis shows in the end that the theory of uncovered interest rate parity does not hold in the long term and that some opportunities for profits with low risk do exist. / Uppsatsen undersöker om det icke kurssäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret har hållit på en 10-års period mellan Japan och Australien/Norge/USA. Månadsdata från februari 2001 till december 2010 används för att genom regressionsanalys samt undersökning av korrelationer se om sambandet håller eller inte. I studien finns också en simulerad portfölj som visar hur en carry trading portfölj kan ha sett ut under den undersökta tidsperioden och hur man kan profitera på denna typ av handel med låg risk. Studien visar i slutet att teorin om det kursosäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret inte håller i det långa loppet och att vissa möjligheter till vinst existerar.

The aim of this thesis is to examine the extent of euro&rsquo / s challenge to the US dollar as an international currency, focusing on comparisons between these two major currencies&rsquo / international roles and their private and official uses as a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account throughout the world, and specifically in Turkey. The thesis evaluates the roles of the euro and US dollar as financing and investment, invocing, vehicle, reserve, anchor and intervention currencies basically in financial markets, foreign trade, foreign exchange markets, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate regimes globally and in Turkey. The evaluations highlight the fact that the euro has been successfull as an international currency since its introduction in 1999 and is the second most widely used international currency in all the main international currency roles, after the US dollar. The findings of the thesis indicate that the use of the euro shows an increasing trend and the euro is likely to play an increasingly prominent role in the world, and specifically in Turkey.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Yim Kyu Lee.pdf: 844652 bytes, checksum: 4c191989a678bd58df27a6ae41c712ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-09-30 / This dissertation analyses the period of weakening of the U.S. dollar in the 2001-2007 period and the three possible scenarios: (i) the maintenance and adjustment of the freefloating currency system, through the prolonged effects of the devaluation of the dollar, (ii) the protracted decline of the dollar as world currency, with the transfer of all or part of its role to another currency, with the Euro as most likely candidate, (iii) U.S. reaction in the style of the Volcker s shock in 1979-1980. It discusses whether there are limits to the setting in which the dollar, in the role of main reserve currency, is issued in large quantities to cover the U.S. current account deficits and whether the world will keep financing these deficits and paying significant margins of contribution to the United States, the so-called "exorbitant privilege" of the country issuing the world currency. The dissertation studies the formation of the freefloating dollar standard after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971-73 and the stages of its development, highlighting the period from 2001, which was marked by a sharp decline in the value the dollar. We draw attention to the similarities with the period of weakening of 1974-1980, which led to strong reaction from the United States with the high increase of interest and the imposition of credit controls, a process known as "Volcker s shock" / A dissertação analisa o período de enfraquecimento do dólar nos anos 2001-2007 e as alternativas colocadas no momento: (i) sustentação e ajustamento do sistema dólar flexível, por meio dos efeitos da desvalorização prolongada do dólar; (ii) declínio prolongado da posição do dólar como moeda mundial, com a transferência total ou parcial de seu papel para outra moeda, tendo o euro como candidato óbvio; (iii) reação dos EUA no estilo do choque de Volcker de 1979-1980. Discute-se se há limites para a configuração em que o dólar, no papel de moeda de reserva principal, é emitido em grandes quantidades em razão dos déficits em transações correntes norte-americanos, e se o mundo manterá o financiamento destes déficits pagando uma margem de contribuição expressiva para os Estados Unidos, o chamado "privilégio exorbitante" do país emissor da moeda mundial. A dissertação analisa a formação do padrão dólar-flexível, após a ruptura do sistema de Bretton Woods, em 1971-73, e as etapas de seu desenvolvimento, com destaque para os anos recentes, a partir de 2001, período marcado pelo declínio acentuado do valor do dólar. Destacam-se as semelhanças com o período de enfraquecimento de 1974-1980 que conduziu à forte reação dos Estados Unidos, com a forte elevação dos juros e a imposição de controles de crédito, processo conhecido como "choques de Volcker"

Following Devereux, Shi, and Xu（2007）, this thesis analyzes the effects of tariffs and derives the optimal tariff under the circumstances that the US dollar acts as an international ‘vehicle’ currency— all traded goods prices between the US and the rest of the world are set in US dollars. We set a tariff policy rule which allows the authority to react to country-specific productivity shocks. The analysis on the equilibrium shows that the current tariff imposed by the US on its output is expansionary. However, for the rest of the world, a current tariff imposed by the US is contractionary. Optimal tariff under flexible and fixed exchange rates are examined. Under flexible exchange rate, optimal tariff policy parameters of the US are dependent only on the monetary policy of its own being indifferent to the exchange rate movement；the exchange rate movement is crucial to the optimal tariff policy of the rest of the world. Nevertheless, the optimal tariff policy of the US under fixed exchange rate is the same as that under the flexible exchange rate, while the policy of the rest of the world is altered owing to the loss of control on its domestic money supply to do the unilateral peg.

M.Comm. / The object of this study is to critically appraise the fundamental models, technical methods and statistical techniques that constitute the bulk of exchange rate forecasting methodology. Specifically, can any single approach, or combination of techniques, predict or explain the volatile currency movements characterising exchange rate behaviour in the modern international currency market? International currency markets are indeed complex in nature, and the layperson may be excused for not grasping the distinction between the fundamental, technical and statistical techniques described in the hypothesis. It is vital, however, for the comprehension of this study that the distinction between these approaches be explained, and the logic underlying their individual methodologies examined. It may prima facie seem that this study is based on a contradiction. Surely if one wants to predict an economic variable of any kind, one should refer to the economic theory upon which it is based as the starting point of an analysis. Consequently, if the objective is to forecast the future value of a currency, surely there are a great many economic texts that deal with this very question in voluminous detail. Why, then, should yet another paper be written when so much literature already exists? The answer lies not so much in the scope as in the purpose of this work. The aim of this study can be paraphrased. as follows: to provide a comprehensive and critical examination of the various methods of exchange rate forecasting and to explain why economic theory is still deficient in this important area. The question of whether or not short-term' exchange rates are able to be forecast at all will also be critically examined. This study will attempt to elucidate that while fundamental currency speculation models do provide a certain degree of guidance to currency-traders in their daily prognostications, these models are, in the context of modern capital markets, inadequate. At best, these models will be shown as trackers of long-term exchange rate trends, and not always accurate ones at that. Further, it will be demonstrated that the modern trading floors are characterised (if not defined) by split-second price changes, where the long-term'' can mean a minute, and he who hesitates is lost. It is in this setting that traders must do battle for profit, and where the fundamental models that seem to serve so well in textbooks are anachronisms. The study then shifts its focus to a subset of technical analysis known as charting, the objective being to fill the void which arises due to the fundamental models' inadequacies in the short-term. The charting techniques utilised in this study deviate from their fundamental counterparts in that they attempt to explain future exchangerate trends in terms of past performance. That is, exogenous changes are factored out of the forecasting equation, to give way to a methodology based on trendextrapolation. The performance of these models, especially as they pertain to the medium- and short-term., will then be determined. Finally, in an attempt to supplement the use of charts as a forecasting tool, statistical analysis will be considered. The model utilised in this section will be a rudimentary auto-regressive process. Its simplicity, however, belies its consequence. That is, considering that no ubiquitous statistical model dominates exchange rate theory, it is reasonable to assume that an auto-regressive process, such as the one contributed by this study, will not be subordinate to other, more complex, quantitative offerings. Thus this study attempts to provide the necessary insights in order to perspicaciously 1 It should be noted here that the terms "short-term" and "short run" are interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. 2 The terms "long-term" and "long run" are also interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. ascertain the proficiency of statistical analysis as an accurate forecaster of exchange rate fluctuations. All of the models and methods examined in this study adopt a pragmatic acid-test. That is to say, if the predictions made as a result of adherence to the models do not comply accurately and consistently with real findings, then the models themselves should be revised. This revision can be in terms of the time-frame to which the model pertains, the application of the model, or the model itself. It must, however, be stressed that a model whose very raison d'etre lies in its ability to predict exchange rate movements must be able to do so without qualifications or exceptions. The methodology adopted in analysing the models themselves is therefore positive as opposed to normative. Thus, even in the "organised chaos" of the modern exchange rate markets, the application of the models should yield satisfactory results. In other words, despite the unprecedented volumes, speed and volatility of the currencies that are traded in the modern arena, the models themselves should still be able to achieve their purpose - to forecast the extent and direction of changes in the par value of a currency. The next logical question is: what is meant by the "organised chaos", and specifically why should this influence the predictive ability of the fundamental, technical and statistical methods of exchange rate forecasting? The answer to this can be introduced as follows. On an almost daily basis, currency traders move an excess of one trillion dollars throughout the world. Adding to the gravity of this somewhat overwhelming statistic is that most of these are intercomputer transactions occurring instantaneously via inter-bank wire-transfers. In fact, the volume of currency traded is so great that if one were to sum the trading of all the Saudi oil, American wheat, European aircraft and Japanese cars, the monetary result would seem pithy in comparison (Millman, 1995:xxi). It is, however, not only the sheer volumes of currencies traded that characterise the international money markets. It is perhaps more importantly the unanticipated and unparalleled volatility of the markets themselves which provides the greatest quandary for those who conform to 'traditional' methods of exchange rate determination. It is all too common, in fact, for currency prices to change on a minute-to-minute or even second-to-second basis. Exchange rates are thus in a constant state of flux. The significant though infrequent changes of past years have been terminally disposed of. The inception of the microcomputer and the floating exchange rate system currently dominating the greater world economy has irrevocably altered what was considered a flawed order. It is this very metamorphosis which will be examined in detail, specifically how fundamental models have assumed a differing purpose to those used by modern speculators, hedgers and arbitrageurs in their specific fields of application. Thus it will be shown how the changing paradigm of the world economy and consequently the currency trading floors themselves necessitate neoteric predictive powers, that is, the power to forecast currency changes not in terms of years, months or even weeks, but rather in terms of days, minutes and seconds. The object of this thesis will therefore be to show that a definite dichotomy has developed between the exchange rate models espoused in economic textbooks and the techniques upon which the de facto day-to-day buying and selling of currencies depend. The efficacy of this study consequently hinges on one decisive question - is there truly a consistent and precise method of forecasting exchange rates?

Abstract This thesis explores the influence of masculinity in twentieth century American foreign policy through examining the career of Guy “Machine Gun” Molony. Molony was an Irish American mercenary from New Orleans, whose career saw the transformation of Honduras from a banana republic to a recipient of dollar diplomacy. Unlike the majority of mercenaries who did not use their experience to build successful careers, Molony made a name for himself in American newspapers, becoming respected and even feared by policemen and politicians. His life tells a fascinating tale of the individual male in American foreign policy, where rebellious youth used war and instability to create heroic images of themselves. This thesis argues that the U.S. State Department borrowed from the independent mercenary model, building on a foundation laid out by men like Molony to implement dollar diplomacy. Guy Molony’s career is a telling example of how perceived ideas of manhood carried imperial intentions during the era of manifest destiny and the Monroe Doctrine. Although scholars tend to focus on Western expansion when examining the ideology of manifest destiny, this thesis explores how mercenaries like Guy Molony, followed by the U.S. State Department, continued to look southward to Central America as a means for American expansion.

A utilização do modelo de Black-Scholes e suas extensões na precificação de opções é bastante difundida tanto na academia quanto no mercado financeiro. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um modelo alternativo de precificação de opções em relação ao do modelo de Black na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. Mais especificamente, a partir de hipóteses sobre o comportamento agregado da economia, da trajetória de preços de ativos e das preferências a risco dos agentes econômicos, é possível reconciliar uma condição de equilíbrio parcial, necessária para a precificação de opções, com uma condição de equilíbrio geral da economia. Essa reconciliação é obtida a partir da escolha cuidadosa de pares de preferências a risco e distribuições e possibilita a obtenção do preço de equilíbrio livre de preferências de um derivativo lançado sobre um dado ativo-objeto. O presente estudo utiliza os resultados de uma generalização recente feita por Câmara (2003), que demonstrou como distribuições e preferências podem ser combinadas de forma que se obtenham fórmulas fechadas para precificação de opções. Particularmente, assume-se que os preços do contrato futuro de dólar possuem distribuição lognormal com assimetria negativa, hipótese que resulta em uma fórmula alternativa de precificação de opções lançadas sobre esse contrato. O modelo obtido foi matematicamente contrastado com o modelo de Black, o que possibilitou que as implicações nos preços das opções, resultantes da premissa de assimetria negativa, fossem evidenciadas. Os desempenhos dos modelos foram comparados com base nos preços de mercado das opções. Os resultados alcançados sugerem que , em geral, o modelo de Black apresenta desempenho melhor que o modelo alternativo na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. / The utilization of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is widespread, in both the academe and the market. Additionally, the literature related to its generalizations and adaptations is vast. Of particular importance are works concerning new sufficient conditions for existing risk-neutral option pricing equations. Under a new set of propositions on distributions and preferences, Câmara (2003) derived new analytical solutions for the price of European-style contingent claims. The objective of the present study was to adapt and test an option pricing model that was derived by Câmara (2003). Particularly, the tested model assumes that the underlying asset, in this case the US dollar futures contract traded on the Brazilian Mercantile & Futures Exchange, follows a negatively skew lognormal distribution. The performance of the alternative model was compared to that of the Black model, the standard model used in the market to price such options. More specifically, the performances of both models were measured against the market prices of US dollar futures options. Also, considerations about the validity of the negative skew lognormal hypothesis were made and a mathematical analysis of the differences in the prices generated by the two models was carried out. In the end, although the alternative model produces, in some cases, prices that are closer to the market’s, the evidences suggest that, in general, the Black model performs better than the alternative one.

L'objet de cette thèse est d étudier le phénomène de dollarisation en Equateur, c est à dire la concurrence de la monnaie nationale - le sucre - par le dollar US, en distinguant les processus de dollarisation partielle (1982-2000) puis de dollarisation intégrale (2000-2004). Répondant au départ à la volonté des agents de préserver la valeur réelle de leurs actifs monétaires (parties I et II), la dollarisation partielle a entraîné parallèlement des coûts macro-économiques dont les effets ont rendu la crise financière de la fin des années 1990 progressivement incontrôlable (partie III) et dont l issue a résidé dans l adoption du système de la dollarisation intégrale (partie IV). Dans le chapitre 1, après avoir défini la notion de dollarisation partielle, nous caractérisons ce phénomène (ampleur, formes et motifs). Dans le chapitre 2, nous précisons les facteurs institutionnels de la dollarisation partielle, en mettant en évidence l importance de la libéralisation financière de 1992. Dans la partie II, nous menons une analyse économétrique des déterminants de la dollarisation partielle à travers l estimation d une demande de monnaie (chapitre 3), puis l estimation d un ratio de dollarisation partielle (chapitre 4). Les chapitres 5 et 6 de la partie III étudient les conséquences de la dollarisation partielle, en particulier en matière de balance sheet effect. Nous montrons que la dollarisation partielle est à l origine d une dynamique endogène de la crise financière (les crises jumelles) de la fin des années 1990 conduisant à une interprétation renouvelée du triangle d incompatibilité de Mundell. La crise financière a abouti à l adoption, en janvier 2000, du système de la dollarisation intégrale dont l étude fait l objet de la partie IV. Le chapitre 7 étudie les bénéfices de la dollarisation intégrale, en particulier en matière de réduction de l inflation. Enfin, dans le chapitre 8 nous analysons les coûts de ce système à travers l étude du degré de symétrie des chocs entre l Equateur et les Etats-Unis.