Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Yim Kyu Lee.pdf: 844652 bytes, checksum: 4c191989a678bd58df27a6ae41c712ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-09-30 / This dissertation analyses the period of weakening of the U.S. dollar in the 2001-2007 period and the three possible scenarios: (i) the maintenance and adjustment of the freefloating currency system, through the prolonged effects of the devaluation of the dollar, (ii) the protracted decline of the dollar as world currency, with the transfer of all or part of its role to another currency, with the Euro as most likely candidate, (iii) U.S. reaction in the style of the Volcker s shock in 1979-1980. It discusses whether there are limits to the setting in which the dollar, in the role of main reserve currency, is issued in large quantities to cover the U.S. current account deficits and whether the world will keep financing these deficits and paying significant margins of contribution to the United States, the so-called "exorbitant privilege" of the country issuing the world currency. The dissertation studies the formation of the freefloating dollar standard after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971-73 and the stages of its development, highlighting the period from 2001, which was marked by a sharp decline in the value the dollar. We draw attention to the similarities with the period of weakening of 1974-1980, which led to strong reaction from the United States with the high increase of interest and the imposition of credit controls, a process known as "Volcker s shock" / A dissertação analisa o período de enfraquecimento do dólar nos anos 2001-2007 e as alternativas colocadas no momento: (i) sustentação e ajustamento do sistema dólar flexível, por meio dos efeitos da desvalorização prolongada do dólar; (ii) declínio prolongado da posição do dólar como moeda mundial, com a transferência total ou parcial de seu papel para outra moeda, tendo o euro como candidato óbvio; (iii) reação dos EUA no estilo do choque de Volcker de 1979-1980. Discute-se se há limites para a configuração em que o dólar, no papel de moeda de reserva principal, é emitido em grandes quantidades em razão dos déficits em transações correntes norte-americanos, e se o mundo manterá o financiamento destes déficits pagando uma margem de contribuição expressiva para os Estados Unidos, o chamado "privilégio exorbitante" do país emissor da moeda mundial. A dissertação analisa a formação do padrão dólar-flexível, após a ruptura do sistema de Bretton Woods, em 1971-73, e as etapas de seu desenvolvimento, com destaque para os anos recentes, a partir de 2001, período marcado pelo declínio acentuado do valor do dólar. Destacam-se as semelhanças com o período de enfraquecimento de 1974-1980 que conduziu à forte reação dos Estados Unidos, com a forte elevação dos juros e a imposição de controles de crédito, processo conhecido como "choques de Volcker"

美元在世界上具有獨特的地位，大部份在國際上貿易的商品都以美元做為訂價，Devereux, Shi and Xu (2007)依此情況而把美元稱為國際上的參考貨幣(reference currency)。本文即以美元為參考貨幣的情況，建立一兩國動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型來探討在世界經濟體系中，有參考貨幣時，貨幣衝擊對兩國經濟體系的影響，以及當面對外在環境衝擊時，兩國政府應該如何選擇適當的貨幣政策。結果發現，擁有參考貨幣的國家發生貨幣衝擊時，對兩國的產出都有正面的影響，然而非參考貨幣國家發生貨幣衝擊時，反而有以鄰為壑(beggar-thy-neighbor)的效果。而在面臨外在環境衝擊時，選擇穩定通貨膨脹的利率法則對兩國而言都會帶來較好的福利效果。 / The U.S. dollars in the world possess a unique position; the majority of the international tradable goods are priced in the U.S. dollars. This paper sets up a two-country DSGE model where the U.S. dollar serves as the reference currency to quantitatively examine the impacts caused by the monetary shocks, as well as how both governments should adopt their monetary policies when facing external shocks. The results show that there are positive impacts on both countries' outputs when a monetary shock occurs in the reference-currency-holding country; Conversely, there is a beggar-thy-neighbor effect when the shock takes place in the other country. In general, the inflation-targeting interest rate rule leads to greater welfare in both countries.

Au plus fort de la crise, le régime monétaire international se révèle être impuissantlorsqu’il s’agit de limiter la volatilité excessive des taux de change, l’ampleur desdéséquilibres des balances de paiements courants, le développement d'une spéculationeffrénée sur les marchés des changes et l’asymétrie entre pays en excédent et pays endéficit. Cette thèse, qui a eu le mérite d’ouvrir des pistes nouvelles dans lacompréhension des rapports complexes entre les déséquilibres mondiaux et le régimeactuel, a montré que ces déséquilibres sont intrinsèquement rattachés aux défaillances dela structure monétaire internationale. Pour interrompre cette dynamique qui détériore lesdéséquilibres mondiaux, nous proposons que le régime tende vers un système centraliséavec la création d’une monnaie internationale et d’une chambre de compensation. Cettethèse, qui réactualise le plan Keynes, inclut également des dispositions statutaires visant àajuster automatiquement les dettes extérieures aux capacités de paiement des pays. Bienque cette réforme soit une avancée, cette réflexion n’occulte pas les progrès qu’il reste àfaire pour résorber les déséquilibres extérieurs. Pour améliorer l’efficacité et la pérennitédu système des paiements internationaux, il est utile de renforcer la coopération desbanques centrales, notamment dans un contexte marqué par les crises d’endettementextérieur. Dans ce sens, cette thèse montre les opportunités qu’offre la constitution dezones monétaires régionales intégrées dans une union monétaire internationale / At the height of the crisis, the international monetary system is powerless to reduce theinstability of exchange rates, the imbalance of the current account of balance ofpayments, instability of exchange rates and the development of speculation in financialmarkets the and the asymmetry between net exporters countries and net deficits countries.This thesis, which had the merit of opening new tracks in order to understand thecomplex relationships between global imbalances and the actual system, showed thatthese global imbalances are intrinsically linked to the failures of the internationalmonetary structure. To stop the deterioration of global imbalances, we propose that thesystem turns towards an international system payment with the creation of aninternational currency and a clearing house. This thesis, which reactualizes the KeynesPlan, also includes statutory dispositions for automatically adjusting the external debt tothe capacities payment of countries. Although this reform is a step forward, we don’t hidethe progress that can be done to reduce external imbalances. To increase the efficiencyand sustainability of the international payments system, it is useful to boost thecooperation between central banks, particularly in a context marked by the external debtcrises. In this sense, this thesis shows the opportunities which offered the creation ofregional monetary zones which are integrated in a monetary union international