Estimating the cost of new technology insertion into an existing (or new) operating environment is of great concern and interest for those entities that own and operate that technology. New technology has many cost requirements associated with it, for instance; design, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and disposal all add to the life-cycle cost of a technology. Estimation and planning methods are needed to better match the costs associated with technology life-cycle requirements (design, manufacturing, etc.) in order to optimize the spending of funds. By optimizing (or closely matching) predicted technology life-cycle costs to a budget the new technology system will have a high probability of operating more efficiently and will minimize costs. System Dynamics has been used to understand and simulate how complex systems of people and technologies operate over time. Decisions (such as how much funding is allocated when in a technology life-cycle) that occur temporally or in a complex environment (i.e., many causes and effects) can be simulated to evaluate the impact the decision may have. Currently, the majority of decision theories and tools are focused on one moment in time (event-focused) rather than including the dynamic nature that decisions can have over time. Evaluating decisions at one instant versus taking into account the life-cycle impact a decision can have, is especially important to the US Government, where investment decisions can involve billions of dollars today, but potentially hundreds of billions later for technology life-cycle requirements. The Navy has experienced large cost overruns in the implementation of new technologies especially in the operations, support and disposal life-cycle phases. There is a lack of detailed knowledge of the dynamic nature of the technology operations, support and disposal (OS&D) processes undertaken by aircraft-carrier builders and planners. This research effort is to better understand and simulate the dynamics prevalent in the new technology implementation process and use a dynamic modeling technique, namely, System Dynamics in our study. A System Dynamics model based on the information and data obtained from experts including; General Dynamics - Newport News Shipbuilding, the Naval Sea Command Cost Estimating Group, and Virginia Polytechnic and State University - System Performance Laboratory. The model was constructed to simulate and predict the cost of operating, maintaining and disposing of a new technology. The investigation of the dynamics yields four dominant behaviors that characterize the technology OS&D process. These four dynamic behaviors are; exponential growth, goal seeking, overshoot & collapse and S-shaped growth with overshoot. Furthermore, seven dynamic hypotheses in the system are investigated. The model predicts an increase in the risk and degradation of new technologies leads to an increase in the total costs in the technology OS&D process. Three interesting insights that lead to increased total OS&D costs were; an inequality between the requirements for OS&D and provided budget, any delay in additional funding being provided and that as the new technology system grew older, it became less costly to maintain. / Master of Science

Globally, the incidence of infection caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae is the second highest among the bacterial sexually transmitted infections. In Canada, declining rates during the 1990s suggested progress toward curbing gonorrhea; however, those have been increasing since 1999, with rates in Saskatchewan among the highest in the country. Infection can cause serious complications in men and women, and reported resistance to third-generation cephalosporins could lead to potentially untreatable infections. Increased understanding of gonorrhea transmission dynamics, sexual networks, and predictors of antimicrobial resistance development is needed to inform the development of improved approaches to prevention and treatment. The research presented herein draws upon data from Shanghai, China, and Saskatchewan, Canada, to compare and contrast varying epidemiologic approaches to enhancing understanding of gonorrhea in the two settings. Using traditional statistical approaches, multi-level statistical modeling, social network analysis, and dynamic simulation modeling, questions related to sexual behavior, partner presentation, and antimicrobial resistance development are explored. Each technique is evaluated for its potential contribution to overall understanding of the issues related to the ongoing gonorrhea epidemic, globally, and in Saskatchewan. The relative strengths and limitations of the application of the analytical approaches in the different settings are described. Socio-demographic characteristics provided useful indicators of antimicrobial resistant infection among patients with gonorrhea from Shanghai. Further, socio-demographic characteristics were also useful for predicting presentation of a partner for testing and treatment and the use of condoms during intercourse, among this study population. In Saskatchewan, socio-demographic characteristics were useful in predicting coinfection with gonorrhea and chlamydia at the time of diagnosis as well as repeat infection with gonorrhea. Social network analysis of the Saskatchewan dataset provided little additional understanding of the gonorrhea epidemic in the province. This result was largely related to how STI data are collected and stored in the province. The utility of dynamic simulation modeling to investigate the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance in Saskatchewan was also limited due to the same data constraints. However, the insight gained from the model building process and findings from the working model did offer a starting point for conversations around the best ways to postpone the development of antimicrobial resistance in N. gonorrhoeae in Saskatchewan, as well as contribute additional information about how the ways in which STI data are collected and stored in the province considerably restrict the applicability of otherwise powerful epidemiologic tools. With persistently high rates of disease transmission, and the threat of untreatable infections due to antimicrobial resistance, N. gonorrhoeae remains a substantial public health threat locally and globally. The research presented herein describes various approaches to understanding and controlling this disease, applied in contrasting settings. There are a wide variety of elements that should be considered when choosing the appropriate tool(s) to address gonorrhea in a given population; there is no “one size fits all” solution. The local epidemiology of disease, cultural and behavioural norms, the characteristics of the notifiable disease reporting and information systems, and the availability of suitable data all affect the relative strengths and weaknesses of the available analytic methods and disease control approaches.

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du développement d’un procédé de décarbonation directe du méthane par voie plasma pour la coproduction de noir de carbone et d’hydrogène. Ce procédé est particulièrement intéressant dans la contexte d'un mix électrique faiblement carboné en offrant une solution pour diminuer drastiquement les émissions des procédés actuels de production de noir de carbone et d’hydrogène qui comptent parmi les procédés actuels les plus polluants en termes d'émissions de CO2. A court terme, la viabilité économique de ce procédé passe par la valorisation simultanée de ces deux produits : noir de carbone et hydrogène. À plus long terme, il pourrait représenter une réelle alternative à la capture et le stockage du CO2.Cette étude a pour but de proposer des méthodes numériques fiables et robustes afin de mieux comprendre, contrôler, voire optimiser les caractéristiques morphologiques des noirs de carbone issus de ce procédé, caractéristiques qui jouent un rôle primordial sur la qualité et les applications des noirs de carbone. Elle traite ainsi de l’évolution de systèmes carbonés en partant du combustible sous sa forme moléculaire jusqu’à la formation de nanoparticules puis de microstructures solides et aborde les phénomènes de nucléation, de croissance chimique, de croissance par coagulation, de maturation et d’agrégation.Des outils et des méthodes numériques ont ainsi pu être développés afin de simuler la formation de particules solides au sein d’un écoulement fluide. Ceux-ci purent être implémentés avec succès à un code CFD. Enfin des simulations numériques du procédé en question ont été réalisées en intégrant les phénomènes de transferts thermiques et de turbulence spécifiques aux plasmas thermiques. / This thesis takes part of the development of a direct decarbonation process of methane by plasma to produce both carbon black and hydrogen. This process is particularly interesting in an electrical mix context with low carbon emission. It proffers a solution to reduce drastically CO2 emissions rejected by the current carbon black and hydrogen ways of production, which are ones of the most polluting industrial processes.This study aims to develop reliable and robust numerical methods for a better understanding and a greater control of the morphologic features of the carbon black generated. These features play a key role in the quality and applications of the carbon black produced. This research retraces the evolution of the carbon structure from the molecules of the fuel to the formation of nanoparticles and solid microstructures. It tackles different phenomenon such as: nucleation, chemical growth, coagulation, maturity and aggregation.Numerical tools and methods were developed thereby and enable to simulate carbon particle formation. They were successfully implemented in a commercial CFD software. Eventually numerical simulation of the plasma process were performed, integrating heat transfers and turbulence.

The U.S. Navy has been confronted with budget cuts and constraints during recent years. This reduction in budget compels the U.S. Navy to limit the number of manpower and personnel to control costs. Reducing the total ownership cost (TOC) has become a major topic of interest for the Navy as plans are made for current and future fleets. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO, 2003), manpower is the most influential component of determining the life cycle cost of a ship. The vast majority of the TOC is comprised of operating and support (O&S) costs which account for approximately 65 percent of the TOC. Manpower and personnel costs account for approximately 50 percent of O&S costs. This research focused on tradeoff analysis and cost estimation between manpower and new technology implementation. Utilizing concepts from System Dynamics Modeling (SDM), System Dynamics Causal Loop diagrams (CLD) were built to identify major factors when implementing new technology, and then stocks and flows diagrams were developed to estimate manpower cost associated with new technology implementation. The SDM base model reflected an 18 months period for technology implementation, and then compared different technology implementation for different scenarios. This model had been tested by the public data from Department of the Navy (DoN) Budget estimates. The objective of this research was to develop a SDM to estimate manpower cost and technology tradeoff analysis associated with different technology implementations. This research will assist Navy decision makers and program managers when objectively considering the impacts of iii technology selection on manpower and associated TOC, and will provide managers with a better understanding of hidden costs associated with new technology adoption. Recommendations were made for future study in manpower cost estimation of ship systems. In future studies, one particular type of data should be located to test the model for a specific manpower configuration.

Ion implantation of titania nanotubes is a highly versatile approach for tailoring structural and electrical properties. While recently self-organized nanoscale compositional patterning has been reported, the atomistic foundations and impact on electronic structure are not established at this point. To study these aspects, ab initio molecular dynamic simulations based on atomic compositions in C implanted titania nanotubes according to elastic recoil detection analysis are employed. Consistent with experimental data, carbon accumulates in chainlike precipitates, which are favorable for enhancing conductivity, as revealed by density-functional theory electronic ground states calculations are demonstrated.

Realistically, organizational and/or system efficiency performance is dynamic, non-linear, and a function of multiple interactions in production. However, in the efficiency literature, system performance is frequently evaluated considering linear combinations of the input/output variables, without explicitly taking into account the interactions and feedback mechanisms that explain the causes of efficiency behavior, the dynamic nature of production, and non-linear combinations of the input/output variables. Consequently, policy decisions based on these results may be sub-optimized because the non-linear relationships among variables, causal relationships, and feedback mechanisms are ignored. This research takes the initial steps of evaluating system efficiency performance in a dynamic environment, by relating the factors that effect system efficiency performance to the policies that govern it. First, this research extends the concepts of the static production axioms into a dynamic realm, where inputs are not instantaneously converted into outputs. The relationships of these new dynamic production axioms to the basic behaviors associated with system dynamics structures are explored. Second, this research introduces a methodological approach that combines system dynamics modeling with the measurement of productive efficiency. System dynamics is a modeling paradigm that evaluates system policies by exploring the causal relationships of the important elements within the system. This paradigm is coupled with the fundamental assumptions of production theory in order to evaluate the productive efficiency of a production system operating within a dynamic and non-linear environment. As a result, a subsystem within the system dynamics model is introduced that computes efficiency scores based on the fundamental notions of productive efficiency. The framework's ability to combine prescriptive and descriptive modeling characteristics, as well as dynamic and combinatorial complexity, can potentially have a greater impact on policy decisions and how they affect system efficiency performance. Finally, the utility of these concepts is demonstrated in an implementation case study. This methodology generates a prescriptive dynamical production frontier which defines the optimal production resources required to satisfy system requirements. Additionally, the dynamical production frontier allows for analysis for comparisons between options during a transient period, insight into possible unintended consequences, and the ability to forecast optimal times for introducing system or process improvements. / Ph. D.

Les vibrations des systèmes de forage pétrolier sont à l'origine de nombreux dysfonctionnements (ruptures des tiges par une fatigue accélérée, réduction des performances, endommagement des outils de mesures, endommagement des parois du puits, etc.). Face à la complexité des puits forés aujourd'hui, la maîtrise des vibrations des systèmes de forage est plus que jamais un enjeu majeur dans la réussite économique d'un projet pétrolier. Durant l'opération de forage, les tiges en rotation entrent en interaction avec les parois du puits (tubage et/ou formation) et encaissent dans certains cas des vibrations sévères. On distingue généralement trois modes de vibrations suivant le plan de leur occurrence : axiales, latérales et de torsion. Nous ne nous intéressons dans ce mémoire qu'aux vibrations latérales des tiges de forage. Si les vibrations latérales ont fait l'objet de nombreuses études dans le passé, il reste néanmoins des axes d'amélioration possible, tant sur la compréhension des phénomènes (contact garniture-puits par exemple) que sur la recherche de méthodes numériques permettant de réduire les temps de calcul. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, un modèle a été développé pour étudier les vibrations latérales des garnitures de forage dans des forages à trajectoires complexes. Ce modèle permet de prédire les vibrations latérales des tiges pour des paramètres opératoires donnés (vitesse de rotation, poids sur l'outil de forage). Un modèle numérique en éléments finis a été développé pour résoudre les équations du mouvement et analyser ainsi la sensibilité des vibrations aux paramètres opératoires du forage en particulier la vitesse de rotation et l'effort axial dans les tiges. Le modèle permet en outre d'analyser la réponse dynamique d'une garniture en cours du forage (conception). En outre, cette étude a permis de mieux élucider le phénomène sévère de précession des tiges (whirling), très nuisible à l'intégrité mécanique des systèmes de forage. Un nouveau banc d'essais a été mis au point par le Centre de Géosciences de Mines ParisTech pour reproduire les vibrations latérales, mieux comprendre le phénomène du whirling et valider les résultats numériques du modèle. Par ailleurs, des mesures dynamiques en surfaces et en fond de puits au cours de forages réels ont été analysées afin de mettre en évidence les vibrations latérales les plus sévères et en particulier le whirling. Ces données de terrain ont permis de comparer les fréquences propres du système mesurées et celles fournies par le modèle numérique. / Drillstring vibrations are commonly observed during oil & gas well drilling operations. Vibrations are a major cause of drilling tools dysfunction (drillstring breaking because of fatigue, reduced drilling efficiency, measurement-while-drilling tools failure, damaging of drill bits, etc.). Because of the increasing complexity of oil & gas wells drilled nowadays, operators need to mitigate efficiently the drillstring vibrations in order to successfully achieve the drilling process. During the drilling operation, rotating drillstrings are in interaction with the well borehole (casing and/or rock) which may lead to severe vibrations. Different vibrations modes occur simultaneously while drilling, we identify mainly three modes: axial, torsional and lateral. This work deals only with lateral vibrations. Literature survey papers show numerous experimental and numerical studies carried out on drillstring dynamics. The developed models don't take into account sufficiently the complex drillstring-borehole interactions or the efficient numerical methods needed to reduce the computation time. A new drillstring dynamics model has been developed within this thesis in order to compute the lateral vibrations of drillstrings in a complex well trajectory. Given the operating parameters (rotary speed, weight on bit) the model predicts the dynamics response of the drillstring in terms of lateral vibrations. A finite element model has been implemented to solve for the equations of motion of the dynamics model and study the dependence of the lateral vibrations on some operating parameters of the system, mainly the rotary speed and the axial load on the drillstrings. The finite element model can be used to compute and enhance the dynamic response of a given drillstring configuration for design issues. Besides, the model can be used to understand some dynamic phenomena encountered while drilling (post-analysis). Moreover, this study was useful to better understand the “whirling” phenomenon which is very harmful for the drilling system components. A new lateral vibrations simulator was built at Mines ParisTech in order to understand the whirling phenomenon and validate the numerical results provided by the dynamics model. Surface and downhole fieldmeasurements have been analyzed in order to understand the occurrence of whirling. The eigenfrequencies evaluated from the field data have been found very close to those provided by the dynamics model.

A nova Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos no Brasil, consubstanciada na lei 12305 /2010, possibilita o emprego de instrumentos econômicos para o fortalecimento de um mercado de agregados reciclados ainda nascente, no qual a maior parte dos resíduos de construção e demolição (RCD) ainda não é reciclada. Este trabalho tem fundamentos técnicos em duas áreas do conhecimento: a engenharia mineral e a construção civil. Na área mineral, será analisado o tratamento do RCD, processado como um minério. Na cadeia da construção civil, o foco é o uso dos agregados reciclados obtidos a partir dos resíduos da construção e demolição, que permite a valorização do RCD como insumo para estes agregados. O conceito de mineração urbana diz respeito à procura e ao processo de tratamento dos RCDs como matéria prima para o mercado de agregados reciclados que se formou no marco regulatório da resolução CONAMA 307 de 2002. Neste mercado de agregados reciclados nascente, usa-se o conceito de Indústria Recicladora Emergente para traçar as possíveis estratégias para alcançar o nível qualitativo dos produtos de indústrias recicladoras maduras, localizada nos países pós-industriais. Para dar conta da complexidade de ações da gestão dos RCDs no novo marco regulatório, empregou-se a modelagem dinâmica para os modelos de Custo Benefício em São Paulo, Macaé e Maceió e de Viabilidade da implantação de plantas de reciclagem na cidade de Macaé. A modelagem baseia-se no trabalho empírico de amostragem do RCD das três cidades brasileiras e em visitas a plantas de reciclagem no Brasil e no exterior. Os resultados obtidos mostram: 1) A heterogeneidade das cidades amostradas no tocante a qualidade do RCD originários de distintos processos de urbanização; 2) O modelo de Custo - Benefício para as três cidades mostra que os benefícios superam os custos na seguinte ordem: São Paulo, Macaé e Maceió; 3) Plantas móveis de reciclagem são mais viáveis do que as fixas na cidade de Macaé; 4) A região de São Paulo, devido ao maior volume de RCD e maiores estímulos à reciclagem, é a única entre as três que não precisa de subsídios; 5) O modelo de viabilidade mostra que a qualidade do resíduo tem considerável influência na viabilidade das empresas de reciclagem; 6) Os fatores mais sensíveis ao modelo de viabilidade são nesta ordem: o valor cobrado pelo terreno, a taxa cobrada na entrada do RCD na planta de reciclagem, os custos de operação da planta e os impostos em vigor. / The new National Policy of Solid Waste in Brazil (Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos) based on the law 12305/2010, allows the use of economic instruments for the strengthening of the market of recycled aggregates still nascent, where the major part of its construction and demolition waste (CD&W) is not recycled yet This work has technical roots in two knowledge fields: mining and construction. In the mining field it will be analyzed the CD&W treatment, processed as an ore. In the construction chain the focus will be at the application of the recycled aggregates obtained, that allows the valorization of the CD&W as a raw material of these aggregates. The concept of urban mining refers to the searching and the process of treating the CD&W as raw material for the market of recycled aggregates formed in the regulatory framework of CONAMA Resolution 307. In this nascent market for recycled aggregates we use the concept of recycling emerging industry and determined possible strategies to reach the quality level of the products of recycling industries located in mature post-industrial countries. To solve the complexity of the inherent management actions of CD&W in the new regulatory framework, it was employed dynamic modeling models of Cost Benefit analysis in Sao Paulo, Macaé and Maceió and also Feasibility models to implement recycling plants in the city of Macaé. The modeling is based on the empirical work of CD&W sampling of the three Brazilian cities and visits to recycling plants in Brazil and abroad. The results show: 1) The heterogeneity of the cities surveyed regarding the quality of the CD&W due to the different processes of urbanization; 2) The model of Cost - Benefit for the three cities shows that the benefits are greater than the costs in the following order: São Paulo, Macaé, Maceió; 3) In the city of Macaé, recycling mobile plants are more economic viable; 4) The region of Sao Paulo, due to higher volume and higher RCD incentives recycling, is the only one among the three which do not need subsidies; 5) The feasibility model shows that the difference in qualities of the waste has considerable influence on the viability of recycling companies; 6) The most sensitive factors in the viability model are in this order: the amount charged for the land, the tax fee into the recycling plant, the plant\'s operational costs and the taxes.

La modélisation de la dynamique des objets spatio-temporels fait partie des sujets de recherche pour le suivi et l'interprétation des changements affectant le globe terrestre. Pour cela, l'exploitation des images satellitaires se présente comme un moyen efficace qui aide à l'étude de la dynamique des phénomènes spatio-temporels qui peuvent se produire sur la surface de la Terre notamment l'urbanisation, la déforestation, la désertification, etc. Divers modèles et approches ont été proposés pour modéliser les évolutions des objets spatio-temporels. Toutes fois, chaque modèle présente une capacité limitée pour capturer l'évolution des différentes caractéristiques de l'environnement, en plus la structure de représentation utilisée par chaque modèle ne permet pas de saisir complètement la sémantique de l'évolution d'un objet spatio-temporel. Les travaux de notre thèse s'intéressent à la modélisation de la dynamique des objets spatio-temporels pour l'interprétation des changements en imagerie satellitaire. En conséquence, nous avons proposé dans un premier temps une architecture ontologiques multi-niveaux pour la représentation et la modélisation des objets et des processus spatio-temporels dynamiques. Également, nous avons présenté une nouvelle stratégie d'interprétation sémantique de scènes d'images satellites pour l'interprétation de changements. Le cadre applicatif concerne l'interprétation sémantique d'une scène d'images satellites pour l'interprétation des phénomènes de changements, tels que l'urbanisation et la déforestation. Le résultat obtenu est une carte de changements qui pourra guider une meilleure gestion de l'utilisation/couverture des sols. / Modeling the dynamics of spatio-temporal objects is part of the research subjects for monitoring and interpretation of the changes affecting the Earth. Satellite images are an effective way for studying the dynamics of spatio-temporal phenomena, including urbanization, deforestation, flooding, desertification, and so on, that can occur on the surface of the Earth. Various models and approaches have been proposed to model the evolution of the spatio-temporal objects. However, each of these models has a limited ability to capture the evolution of the different characteristics of the environment, and the representation structure used by each model does not fully capture the semantics of the evolution of a spatio-temporal object. The works of our thesis interested in modeling the dynamics of spatio-temporal objects for changes interpretation in satellite imagery. Therefore, we proposed initially a multi-level ontological architecture for representation and modeling the dynamic of spatio-temporal objects and process. Also, we have presented a new semantic scene interpretation strategy for change interpretation in remote sensing imagery. The application Framework concerns the semantic interpretation of a satellite images scenes for change interpretation of phenomena, such as urbanization and deforestation. The result is a change map that can guide better management of the land use/cover.

In 2001, the Government of India announced a program for the establishment of Agricultural Export Zones (AEZ). This is the first national program in India to adopt a regional approach to promoting exports of agricultural products, with the combined action of the central and state governments. The gherkin AEZ, covering eight districts of Karnataka, was notified in November 2001. Gherkin is an export-oriented vegetable that is being produced and exported from Karnataka since the late 1980s. Exploration of data on gherkin exports and cultivation costs, for the period 2001-06, revealed the following trends, namely, the share of value of total exports from the gherkin AEZ in India’s gherkin exports has declined from 81% to about 54%; overall (bulk + bottled) gherkin export quantities and value from the AEZ have grown with an annual rate of 18% and 21% respectively; unit price of AEZ bulk gherkins in 200506 is about 4% higher than its unit price in 2001-02 while the unit price of AEZ bottled gherkins is lower by about 9%; and the cost of gherkin cultivation has increased by about 27%. The aim of this research is to apply a stakeholder-based planning framework for enhancing the performance of the Gherkin AEZ in Karnataka. To meet the research aim, the following objectives were defined: 1.Forecasting the primary performance indicators of the gherkin AEZ, in the medium term, given the current policy environment 2.Conducting stakeholder analysis, identifying system structures that influence the gherkin AEZ’s performance and the interventions preferred by stakeholders to enhance gherkin AEZ performance 3.Exploring probable impacts of the identified interventions on gherkin AEZ’s competitiveness 4.Developing policy suggestions and a planning framework for enhancing the performance of the Gherkin AEZ Towards meeting the research objectives, the following approach has been used. One, data has been collected on AEZ performance indicators. Evolution of those variables, given the prevailing policy environment, is forecast using the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology. Second, System elements of the gherkin AEZ are identified and organized as a system dynamics model. Stakeholder analysis of the Gherkin AEZ has been done to identify stakeholder groups. Preferred interventions for improvement of AEZ performance are collected from most stakeholders, and the impact of key interventions on system elements is qualitatively assessed. Considering the large number of system elements and the interrelationships between them, a multiple criteria decision making technique, the analytic network process, is used to describe the decision making environment and prioritize the system elements (factors and subfactors influencing AEZ performance, stakeholder objectives and interventions). Third, the probable impact of preferred interventions on competitiveness of gherkin cultivation in the AEZ is assessed using the Policy Analysis Matrix. Fourth, the analysis and learnings are integrated to suggest policy interventions and develop a planning framework for improved performance of the gherkin AEZ. The 3-year SARIMA models, to forecast the AEZ’s performance indicators, indicate a continued growth in the quantities of gherkin exports from the AEZ with a higher rate of growth in exports of bottled gherkins. The forecast also indicate a continued fall in the unit prices of both bottled and bulk gherkins. Stakeholder analysis and System dynamic models indicate the presence of several stakeholders with multiple objectives, multiple factors which influenced AEZ performance, and several preferred interventions. In this multiple criteria decision making environment, the system elements along with dependencies shown in the system dynamics model, the interventions collected from stakeholders (alternatives), and stakeholder objectives derived from stakeholder analysis, are organized to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model. The cluster priorities from the ANP model indicate that global trade conditions are the most important determinant of AEZ performance. The limit matrix indicates that the element of tastes and preferences of world consumers obtains the highest priority followed by price of other countries’ gherkins, and sanitary and phytosanitary conditions as applicable to Gherkins. The probable impacts of the identified interventions on competitiveness of gherkin cultivation in the AEZ are assessed by applying the policy analysis matrix (PAM). Synthesis of sectoral performance data and factors, results of the system dynamics, ANP and PAM analysis resulted in the development of the planning framework for the gherkin AEZ. Overall, the results and analyses demonstrate that the AEZ program should focus on increasing demand, enhancing prices of AEZ gherkins and reducing cultivation costs. Towards achieving this, recommended policy interventions have been prioritized and participating stakeholders identified. This work represents an application of the multiple criteria methodology of the ANP to agricultural regional planning. The system dynamic methodology has been integrated with ANP to identify the important elements in the gherkin AEZ. This thesis on agricultural exports planning has collected and used micro data (price, product form and grade data) to identify and analyze sectoral issues.