We examine the impact of Mergers & Acquisitions on credit- and investment risk using a sample of 402 acquisitions by 215 Swedish firms from 2000 to 2020. We find significant evidence that, on average, M&A increases the credit risk and inversely decreases the investment risk of the acquiring firm. Our results indicate that firm credit risk however is positively correlated with investment risk. After controlling for specific deal- and firm characteristics, our findings suggest that managerial hubris decreases the level of credit risk and increases the level of investment risk in acquiring firms. Our results are consistent with the asymmetric information hypothesis that managers may exploit the volatility of their stock price to hide risk-increasing activities. We also observe that acquirers with high pre-deal credit risk undertake acquisitions that decrease credit risk and increase investment risk. We find no significant impact from neither method of payment nor valuation errors.

In 2005 Attilio Meucci presented his article Beyond Black-Litterman: Views on Non-Normal Markets which introduces the copula opinion pooling approach using generic non-normal market assumptions. Copulas and opinion pooling are used to express views on the market which provides a posterior market distribution that smoothly blends an arbitrarily distributed market prior distribution with arbitrarily chosen views. This thesis explains how to use this method in practice and investigates its performance in different investment situations. The method is tested on three portfolios, each showing some different feature. The conclusions that can be drawn are e.g. that the method can be used in many different investment situations in many different ways, implementation and calculations can be made within a few seconds for a large data set and the method could be useful for portfolio managers using mathematical methods. The presented examples together with the method generate reasonable results.

Den svenska vattenkraften står för nästan 50 % av landets elproduktion vilket gör dess konstruktioner till en viktig del av samhällets infrastruktur. För att ett vattenkraftverk ska fungera effektivt och säkert ställs höga krav på komponenternas funktion och kondition. I dagsläget genomförs därför rutinmässiga kontroller på, i och runt dessa anläggningar. För de aggregatnära inre vattenvägarna genomförs detta ca vart åttonde år i samband med reparationer av turbinerna, vilka då måste tömmas på vatten. För till- och utloppstunnlarna, som ofta är drivna i berg, finns det dock inte några sådana rutiner. Detta i kombination med att majoriteten av Sveriges vattenkraftverk har uppnått en ålder på över 50 år gör att branschen har börjat bli intresserade av att få kännedom om skicket på tunnlarna. Att genom-föra inspektioner genom att torrlägga dessa är dock en tidsödande process som kräver att kraftverket är avstängt under en lång tid och därmed ger en stor ekonomisk förlust för ägaren. Detta arbete har därför utförts med syfte att utvärdera till vilken grad inspektioner med undervattensfarkoster, ROV, kan användas som alternativ till inspektioner av inre vatten-vägar, både aggregatnära och i till- och utloppstunnlarna. En litteraturstudie har genomförts, om vattenkraftverk, vanliga skador, dagens inspektionsmetoder samt hur en ROV är uppbyggd och fungerar. Arbetet innefattar även tre praktiska moment bestående av deltagande på en inspektion av torrlagda aggregatnära inre vattenvägar och en inspektion med ROV i en 2,5 km lång utloppstunnel samt egna försök med inhyrd ROV för att undersöka vilka typer av betongskador som är möjliga att detektera. Resultatet från samtliga delar i arbetet pekar på att besiktningar med ROV kan övervägas för flera olika typer av inspektioner. För till- och utloppstunnlar är denna typ av inspektion många gånger den enda rimliga. För de aggregatnära inre vattenvägarna ger dagens inspektionsmetoder med torrläggning ett fullgott resultat, men ROV skulle kunna vara ett alternativ vid svårtillgängliga delar, t.ex. på grund av utformning eller stora läckage. / Swedish hydro power accounts for nearly 50 % of the country's electricity production which makes the constructions within this production system an important part of the societal infrastructure. To ensure safe and efficient operation of these hydroelectric power plants high demands are put on the components function and condition. Therefore, routine inspections are carried out inside and around these facilities. For the waterways directly connected to the power station, such as penstocks, wicket gates and draft tubes, these checkups are made about every eight years simultaneously as planned repairs of the turbine, when the waterways have to be emptied. For the head and trail race tunnels, which often are driven in bedrock, there are no such routines. This, in combination with the fact that the majority of the Swedish hydroelectric plants have attained the age of over 50 years, has led to an increased interest within the industry in ways to increase their knowledge about the condition of these water passageways. To conduct inspections by draining the tunnels is however a very time consuming process that requires the power plant to be turned off for a long time causing a major financial loss for the owner. The purpose of this master thesis is to assess the extent to which inspections with remotely operated vehicles, ROV, can be used as an alternative method for inspections of covered waterways, both those close to the power house and the head and tail race tunnels. A literature study of hydro power plants, common damages, current inspection methods and the construction and function of an ROV, has been conducted. The method also includes three practical activities, participation at inspections in drained waterways and at an ROV inspection of a 2.5 km tail race tunnel. Furthermore, tests with a rented ROV were carried out to investigate what type of concrete damages that are possible to detect using this method. The result from all parts in this thesis indicates that examinations by ROV can be considered for several types of inspections. For head and tail race tunnels, this type of inspection is often the only reasonable method. For the waterways directly connected to the power station, current inspection methods by draining show good result. But the ROV could here be an alternative in inaccessible areas, for instance due to waterway design or heavy leakage for instance.

The purpose of this study was to develop a conceptual integrated online visual merchandising framework containing online visual merchandising themes that South African apparel e-tailers could use when developing an effective apparel e-store, with the main aim of possibly influencing consumer purchasing behaviour. The study adopted a consumer-centred response approach to online visual merchandising in an attempt to holistically consider this area of the South African e-tail industry from the consumer’s perspective. The study followed a pragmatic paradigm that implemented a mixed-method approach. The qualitative section of the mixed-method approach primarily comprised four focus group interviews as the main data-collection instrument. The data obtained during the qualitative section was analysed by Tesch’s inductive descriptive coding technique, better known as thematic analysis. The findings obtained during the qualitative section were used as the basis for the quantitative section of the mixed-method approach, which implemented a self-administered web-based questionnaire as the data-collection instrument. The data was analysed by means of the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 23. The findings of the study delivered a conceptual integrated online visual merchandising framework that consists of 13 themes and 82 items. This conceptual integrated online visual merchandising framework will contribute to the South African apparel retail and e-tail industry, as both apparel brick-and-mortar retailers and apparel e-tailers in South Africa can benefit from using the conceptual integrated framework as a guideline. The value of the conceptual integrated framework lies in the fact that it includes consumers’ views regarding the online visual merchandising themes. Therefore, apparel e-tailers, as well as brick-and-mortar retailers that want to develop an e-store, or update an existing e-store, can use this conceptual integrated framework as a guideline to make their online offering as attractive as possible. This way involves the least possible online risks to ensure that online trust is created, and ultimately, that consumer purchasing behaviour has been influenced. / Business Management / D. Phil. (Management Studies)

Véritable carrefour de problématiques économiques, biologiques, sociologiques, culturelles et sanitaires, l’alimentation suscite de nombreuses polémiques. Dans un contexte où les échanges mondiaux facilitent le transport de denrées alimentaires produites dans des conditions environnementales diverses, où la consommation de masse encourage les stratégies visant à réduire les coûts et maximiser le volume de production (OGM, pesticides, etc.) il devient nécessaire de quantifier les risques sanitaires que de tels procédés engendrent. Notre intérêt se place ici sur l’étude de l’exposition chronique, de l’ordre de l’année, à un ensemble de contaminants dont la nocivité à long terme est d’ores et déjà établie. Les dangers et bénéfices de l’alimentation ne se restreignant pas à l’ingestion ou non de substances toxiques, nous ajoutons à nos objectifs l’étude de certains apports nutritionnels. Nos travaux se centrent ainsi autour de trois axes principaux. Dans un premier temps, nous nous intéressons à l'analyse statistique des très fortes expositions chroniques à une ou plusieurs substances chimiques, en nous basant principalement sur des résultats issus de la théorie des valeurs extrêmes. Nous adaptons ensuite des méthodes d'apprentissage statistique de type ensembles de volume minimum pour l'identification de paniers de consommation réalisant un compromis entre risque toxicologique et bénéfice nutritionnel. Enfin, nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques d'un certain nombre d'estimateurs permettant d'évaluer les caractéristiques de l'exposition, qui prennent en compte le plan de sondage utilisé pour collecter les données. / At a crossroads of economical, sociological, cultural and sanitary issues, dietary analysis is of major importance for public health institutes. When international trade facilitates the transportation of foodstuffs produced in very different environmental conditions, when conspicuous consumption encourages profitable strategies (GMO, pesticides, etc.), it is necessary to quantify the sanitary risks engendered by such economic behaviors. We are interested in the evaluation of chronic types of exposure (at a yearly scale) to food contaminants, the long-term toxicity of which is already well documented. Because dietary risk and benefit is not limited to the abuse or the avoidance of toxic substances, nutritional intakes are also considered. Our work is thus organized along three main lines of research. We first consider the statistical analysis of very high long-term types of exposure to one or more chemical elements present in the food, adopting approaches in keeping with extreme value theory. Then, we adapt classical techniques borrowed from the statistical learning field concerning minimum volume set estimation in order to identify dietary habits that realize a compromise between toxicological risk and nutritional benefit. Finally, we study the asymptotic properties of a number of statistics that can assess the characteristics of the distribution of individual exposure, which take into account the possible survey scheme from which the data originate.

DNA microarrays are a relatively new technology for assessing the expression levels of thousands of genes simultaneously. Researchers hope to find genes that are differentially expressed by hybridizing cDNA from known treatment sources with various genes spotted on the microarrays. The large number of tests involved in analyzing microarrays has raised new questions in multiple testing. Several approaches for identifying differentially expressed genes have been proposed. This paper considers two: (1) a mixed models approach, and (2) the Signiffcance Analysis of Microarrays.

Experiments for the development of fusion power that are based on magnetic confinement deal with plasmas that inevitably contain energetic (non-thermal) particles. These particles come e.g. from fusion reactions or from external heating of the plasma. Ensembles of energetic ions can excite plasma waves in the Alfvén frequency range to such an extent that the resulting wave fields redistribute the energetic ions, and potentially eject them from the plasma. The redistribution of ions may cause a substantial reduction heating efficiency, and it may damage the inner walls and other components of the vessel. Understanding the dynamics of such instabilities is necessary to optimise the operation of fusion experiments and of future fusion power plants. A Monte Carlo model that describes the nonlinear wave-particle dynamics in a toroidal plasma has been developed to study the excitation of the abovementioned instabilities. A decorrelation of the wave-particle phase is added in order to model stochasticity of the system (e.g. due to collisions between particles). Based on the nonlinear description with added phase decorrelation, a quasilinear version of the model has been developed, where the phase decorrelation has been replaced by a quasilinear diffusion coefficient in particle energy. When the characteristic time scale for macroscopic phase decorrelation becomes similar to or shorter than the time scales of nonlinear wave-particle dynamics, the two descriptions quantitatively agree on a macroscopic level. The quasilinear model is typically less computationally demanding than the nonlinear model, since it has a lower dimensionality of phase space. In the presented studies, several effects on the macroscopic wave-particle dynamics by the presence of phase decorrelation have been theoretically and numerically analysed, e.g. effects on the growth and saturation of the wave amplitude, and on the so called frequency chirping events with associated hole-clump pair formation in particle phase space. Several effects coming from structures of the energy distribution of particles around the wave-particle resonance has also been studied. / <p>QC 20150330</p>

Throughout time man has discovered that the human form, in all its harmonious proportion, can be used as a guide, gauge and tool to design and build structures. However, the human figure has not been the only organic form used to create architecture. Many animals create dwellings that synchronize with not only their own unique physical characteristics and survival instincts, but with their aesthetic preferences as well. It is logical that a design should respond to its surroundings, program and most importantly, its inhabitants. This thesis design is for two specific occupants: the cat and the human. They are both meant to inhabit the building wholly and simultaneously. The way each of them experiences and uses the space, however, differs greatly. For a building to survive it needs many of the same things as living creatures: sunlight, air and movement, to name a few. It also needs to function like a living creature. It must breathe, sleep, respond to the changing seasons, and adapt over time. This thesis is an investigation of how both human and cat can dwell in a building of harmonious proportion, scale, light, and material. / Master of Architecture

Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus drei Kapiteln über die Investmentfonds. Das erste Kapitel befasst sich mit der Rolle der Fondsmanager in der Bilanzverschönerung. Auf Basis der Analyse der Karrierewege von amerikanischen Fondsmanagern werden signifikante zusammenwirkende Manager-Fixed-Effects identifiziert, die nach der Kontrolle der endogenen Matching-Probleme immer noch robust sind. Die geschätzten Manager-Fixed-Effects haben signifikante Einflüsse auf die Out-of-Sample-Vorhersagen. Außerdem wird festgestellt, dass die Verriegelungen der Investmentfonds, die von gemeinsamen Managern verwaltet wurden, wichtige Kanäle für die Bilanzverschönerung verursachen. Das zweite Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit den Investmentstrategien der Fonds im Hinblick auf die Nutzung von Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Die Zuordnung der CDS-Positionen der Investmentfonds zu ihrem Bestandportfolio bietet eine neue Methodik zur Identifizierung der CDS-Strategien und kompensiert somit die Analysen der existierenden Literatur auf der Makroebene. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Anreize zur Risikoreduzierung die Spekulationsanreize dominieren, insbesondere, wenn die Kreditexposition durch ungedeckte Leerverkäufe der CDS-Verträge erhöht wird. Die erfahrenen Fondsmanager tendieren dazu, mehr Kreditrisiko in Kauf zu nehmen, während es für die Fondsmanagerinnen wahrscheinlicher als für ihre männlichen Kollegen ist, gegen das bestehende Risiko abzusichern. Der letzte Teil nimmt die Pleite von Lehman Brothers unter die Lupe, um sich mit der daraus resultierenden unerwarteten Schließung der CDS-Positionen als einem natürlichen Experiment auseinanderzusetzten. Diese Studie dient zur Untersuchung der Risiko- und Leistungsimplikationen der CDS-Investments der Fonds. Die Investmentfonds besitzen bei ihren CDS-Transaktionen im Durchschnitt einen beachtlichen Teil Extremrisiko. Während die CDS-Nutzer von guten Gesamtmarktlagen profitieren, erleiden sie unter Verlusten bei geclusterten Ausfällen. / This dissertation comprises of three chapters on mutual funds. The first chapter establishes the role of managers in the deceptive practice of window dressing. Employing comprehensive career history of U.S. mutual fund managers, I find strong jointly significant manager fixed effects, which are robust after addressing endogenous matching concerns. The estimated manager fixed effects are significant in making out-of-sample predictions. Further I establish that mutual fund interlocks through common managers are important channels that spread window dressing. The second chapter studies the investment strategies of mutual funds regarding their use of credit default swaps (CDS). Matches between mutual funds’ CDS positions and their underlying portfolio in the holdings facilitate a new approach in identifying CDS strategies that complements the “macro” level analyses in the existing literature. I find risk reducing incentives are dominated by speculative incentives, especially those to increase credit exposure via naked short CDS contracts. Experienced fund managers tend to take on more credit risk, while female managers are more likely to hedge comparing with their male peers. The third chapter employs the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the resulting sudden closures of CDS positions as a natural experiment to examine the risk and performance implications of mutual funds’ CDS investments. Funds on average load up on a significant amount of tail risk by trading CDS. While CDS users benefit when market conditions are favorable, they suffer during periods of clustered defaults.

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