Submitted by Murilo Resende Ferreira (muriloresende82@gmail.com) on 2014-10-28T15:22:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tesedoutoradomuriloresende.PDF: 806113 bytes, checksum: e6d9cfcc660128de80d20f44f9c5213e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2014-11-10T11:34:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tesedoutoradomuriloresende.PDF: 806113 bytes, checksum: e6d9cfcc660128de80d20f44f9c5213e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-11-13T13:40:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tesedoutoradomuriloresende.PDF: 806113 bytes, checksum: e6d9cfcc660128de80d20f44f9c5213e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-13T13:40:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tesedoutoradomuriloresende.PDF: 806113 bytes, checksum: e6d9cfcc660128de80d20f44f9c5213e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-27 / This thesis contains two chapters, each one dealing with banking theory and the history of financiai arrangements. In Chapter 1, we extend a Diamond and Dybvig economy with imperfect monitoring of early withdrawals and make a welfare comparison between all possible allocations, as proposed by Prescott and Weinberg(2003) [37]. This imperfect monitoring is introduced by establishing indirect communication( trough a mean of payment) between the agents and the machine that is an aggregate of the financiai and the productive sector. The extension consists in studying allocations where a fraction of the agents can exploit imperfect monitoring and defraud the contracted arrangement by consuming more in the early period trough multiple means of payment. With limited punishment in the period of late consumption, this new allocation is called a separating allocation in contrast with pooling allocations where the agent with the ability of fraud is blocked from it by a costly mean of payment or by receiving enough future consumption to make fraud unattractive. The welfare comparison in the chosen range of parameters show that separating allocations are optimal for poor economies and pooling allocations for intermediary and rich ones. We end with a possible historical context for this kind of model, which connects with the historical narrative in chapter 2. In Chapter 2 we explore the quantitative properties of an early warning system for financiai crises based on the boom and bust framework described in more detail in appendix 1. The main variables are: real growth in equity and housing prices, the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the 3-month interbank rate and the growth in total banking system assets. These variables display a higher degree of correct signals for recent crises (1984-2008) than comparable early warning systerns. Taking into account an increasing base-line risk ( due to increasing rates of credit expansion , lower interest rates and the accumulation of distortions) also proves to be informative and to help signaling crises in countries that did not go trough a great boom in previous years. / Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

The purpose of this study was to use first-year test results to develop an early warning system for the identification of freshmen at risk of failing. All students registered between 1989 and 1997 for the six-year programmes chiropractic and homoeopathy were included in this ex post facto study. A descriptive study firstly indicated a serious problem of attrition with on average only 66% of chiropractic and 55% homoeopathy freshmen successfully completing the first year. A relationship was demonstrated between both first and second test results and outcome at the end of the first year of studies. A logistic regression model estimated retrospectively from first test results in physiology, anatomy, biology and chemistry was able to discriminate between successful and non-successful freshmen with an overall predictive accuracy of 80.82%. When this model was validated on a different set of data it was shown to have a very high sensitivity and was thus able to correctly identify >93 % of the potentially at risk freshmen. It also had a low Type II error ( <7%) and thus missed very few of the freshmen at risk of failing. A logistic regression model estimated retrospectively from second test results in physiology, anatomy, biology and chemistry had an overall predictive accuracy of 85.94% . The validated model had a sensitivity of 67% which was too low for the model to be of much use as a management tool for the identification of the freshmen at risk of failing. However, the model was shown to have a high specificity and was able to correctly identify >93% of the potentially successful freshmen. It also had a low Type I error (14.29%). Discriminant analysis models estimated from both first and second test results in physiology, anatomy, biology and chemistry produced strong support for the use of test results for the early identification of those freshmen who would need support in order to be successful. It is suggested that the objective models developed in this research could identify the freshman in need of support at an early enough stage for support measures to still have a positive effect on attrition. / Educational Studies / D. Ed. (Educational management)

The growth in the number of connected devices, in the volume of data traffic and of applications used has shown a significant increase in the complexity of today's networks, leaving the activity of management increasingly difficult for network and system administrators. Management aspects, such as the security of these systems has been a major challenge faced by the researchers, especially considering that, in parallel, there has been also a significant increase in the degree of sophistication of malicious activities. This scenario requires the development of sophisticated security systems also, in order to prevent or contain attacks increasingly destructive to systems, such as worm attacks. And the biological inspiration has been a main ally in this endeavor, bringing several concepts and new ways of thinking and solving these problems. This work used the bio-inspired concepts of Autonomic Networks (self-managing networks inspired by the functioning of the human nervous system)and Artificial Immune Systems (computer security systems inspired by the functioning of the human immune system), to define a management architecture for network self-protection, through the prediction of security attacks. This architecture incorporates the Danger Theory immune-inspired model and uses its Dendritic Cells algorithm to correlate events and detect anomalies. The architecture analysis was performed on an Early Warning System, which uses notifications received from worm already infected machines as additional information to identify the imminence of an infection in still vulnerable machines. In the experiments the gain in time obtained with this early identification was used in the Conficker worm propagation model and the results showed a reduction in the number of infected machines and, consequently, in the worm propagation across a network / O crescimento do número de dispositivos conectados, do volume de dados trafegados e das aplicações utilizadas tem evidenciado um aumento importante na complexidade das redes atuais, deixando a atividade de gerência cada vez mais difícil para os administradores de redes e sistemas. Aspectos de gerência, como a segurança desses sistemas tem sido um dos principais desafios enfrentados pelos pesquisadores, principalmente, considerando que, em paralelo, observa-se um também importante aumento no grau de sofisticação das atividades maliciosas. Tal cenário exige o desenvolvimento de sistemas de segurança igualmente sofisticados, com o intuito de impedir ou conter ataques cada vez mais destrutivos aos sistemas, como os ataques de worms. E a inspiração biológica tem sido uma das grandes aliadas nesta empreitada, trazendo diversos conceitos e novas formas de pensar e resolver esses problemas. Este trabalho utilizou os conceitos bio-inspirados das Redes Autonômicas (redes autogerenciáveis inspiradas nos funcionamento do sistema nervoso humano) e dos Sistemas Imunes Artificiais (sistemas de segurança computacional inspirados no funcionamento do sistema imunológico humano), para definir uma arquitetura de gerência para autoproteção de redes, através da predição de ataques de segurança. Tal arquitetura incorpora o modelo imuno-inspirado da Teoria do Perigo e utiliza o seu Algoritmo das Células Dendríticas para correlacionar eventos e detectar anomalias. A análise da arquitetura foi realizada em um Sistema de Alerta Antecipado, que usa notificações recebidas de máquinas já infectadas por worm como informação adicional para identificar a iminência de uma infecção em máquinas ainda vulneráveis. Nos experimentos o ganho de tempo obtido com essa identificação precoce foi utilizado no modelo de propagação do worm Conficker e os resultados apontaram uma redução no número de máquinas infectadas e, consequentemente, na propagação deste worm em uma rede

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging viral zoonosis that causes frequent outbreaks in east Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula. The likelihood of RVF global expansion due to climate change and human anthropogenic factors is an important issue. The causative agent, RVF virus, is an arbovirus that is transmitted by several mosquito species and is able to infect a wide range of livestock as well as people. The infection leads to mass abortions and death in livestock and a potentially deadly hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVF has severe socio-economic consequences such as animal trade bans between countries, disruption of food security, and economic disaster for farmers and pastoralists as well as for countries. Human behavior such as direct contact with infected animals or their fluids and exposure to mosquito bites increases the risk for contracting the disease. To better understand the challenges associated with RVF outbreaks and to explore prevention and control strategies, we used the One Health approach. The local community had to be involved to understand the interaction between the environment, animals, and humans. We focused on Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Kenya. First, we systematically reviewed the literature and then we performed cross sectional community-based studies using a special One Health questionnaire. Climatic and remote sensing data were used in combination with statistics to develop a sub-region predictive model for RVF. For both Saudi Arabia and Sudan, the ecology and environment of the affected areas were similar. These areas included irrigation canals and excessive rains that provide an attractive habitat for mosquito vectors to multiply. The surveillance systems were unable to detect the virus in livestock before it spread to humans. Ideally, livestock should serve as sentinels to prevent loss of human lives, but the situation here was reversed. Differences between countries regarding further spread of RVF was mainly determined by better economic and infrastructure resources. In Sudan, there was a lack of knowledge and appropriate practices at the studied community regarding RVF disease symptoms and risk factors for both animals and humans. The community was hesitant in notifying the authorities about RVF suspicion in livestock due to the lack of a compensation system. The perceived role of the community in controlling RVF was fragmented, increasing the probability of RVF transmission and disease. In Kenya, our study found that better knowledge about RVF does not always translate to more appropriate practices that avoid exposure to the disease. However, the combination of good knowledge, attitudes, and practices may explain why certain communities were less affected. Strategies to combat RVF should consider socio-cultural and behavioral differences among communities. We also noticed that RVF outbreaks in Kenya occurred in regions with high livestock density exposed to heavy rains and wet soil fluxes, which could be measured by evapotranspiration and vegetation seasonality variables. We developed a RVF risk map on a sub-regional scale. Future outbreaks could be better managed if such relevant RVF variables are integrated into early warning systems. To confront RVF outbreaks, a policy is needed that better incorporates ecological factors and human interactions with livestock and environment that help the RVF pathogen spread. Early detection and notification of RVF is essential because a delay will threaten the core of International Health Regulations (IHR), which emphasizes the share of information during a transboundary disease outbreak to avoid unnecessary geographical expansion.

Rationale – Climate disasters represent a significant and growing proportion of the humanitarian burden and are a key factor in increasing poverty and insecurity. A myriad of studies demonstrate that aid delivered in an ex-ante fashion can be effective in mitigating losses of life, assets and livelihoods associated with climate hazards. This inquiry supplements the nascent body of research and empirical evidence base pertaining to the building of anticipatory capacity into large-scale national systems, namely via linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to an existing social protection system. Research question – Using the case of flood disasters in Bardiya district, Nepal, the research inquired the following: How can social protection be combined with Forecast-based Financing in order to optimise anticipatory humanitarian relief for climate-related disasters? Sub-questions – Research sub-questions guided the inquiry: (1) To what extent are current social protection beneficiaries exposed to climate-related disasters? (2) What is the specific climate vulnerability of social protection beneficiaries? (3) What are the anticipatory relief needs of climate vulnerable social protection beneficiaries? Methodology – Grounded in empirical research via the conduct of a qualitative single case study, the inquiry adopted a conceptual perspective and an exploratory design. A remote data collection strategy was applied, which included (1) a thorough desk review of key scientific literature and secondary data provided by in-field humanitarian organisations; and (2) semi-structured interviews with key informants. Key findings – The data demonstrated that the exposure of social protection beneficiaries to flood hazards is comparable to the general population. Nevertheless, an elevated climate vulnerability is evident secondary to an increased sensitivity and diminished adaptive capacity. The flood anticipatory relief needs/preferences identified include cash-based assistance, food provisions, evacuation assistance and/or enhanced Early Warning Systems. Conclusion – The research supports the utilisation of the proposed conceptual model for an integrated social protection and Forecast-based Financing mechanism, inclusive of vertical and horizontal expansion, in order to effectively identify the most climate vulnerable groups and to guide the provision of targeted anticipatory actions. The mechanism is optimised when a people-centred approach is utilised, with reference to the idiosyncratic, lifecycle and corresponding intersectional vulnerabilities of the targeted population. These findings will contribute to prospective programming in Nepal; additionally, the extent to which they can be generalised will be informed by future applied efficacy studies and comparative analyses with research from differing contexts.

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Zusammenschlüsse über Firmengrenzen hinweg sind mit Risiken verbunden, besonders bei Einbindung von Mitarbeitern. Ein neu entwickeltes Frühwarnsystem ermöglicht ein rechtzeitiges Eingreifen in die Kooperationsprozesse, bevor eine erfolgsmindernde Wirkung einsetzen könnte. Es basiert auf Forschungsergebnissen zu Führung und Mitarbeitermotivation in Projektgruppen und orientiert sich an den Erfahrungen von Managern bei der Gestaltung interorganisationaler Zusammenarbeit. Die informationsund kommunikationstechnische Umsetzung dient dem ökonomischen orts- und zeitflexiblen Einsatz sowie einer schnellen Rückmeldung. Inzwischen wurde das Frühwarnsystem in verschiedenen Kooperationsprojekten eingesetzt und von den Beteiligten positiv angenommen.

This Master thesis focuses on the three occurrences of the so-called Yellow Card procedure, a part of the Early Warning Mechanism introduced into the EU legislative practice with the Lisbon Treaty. The analysis of the practical cases helps to shed light on the development of the interparliamenatry cooperation among the national parliaments of the EU Member States and the ability of this cooperation to affect the EU decision-making process. The work discusses how the Mechanism was institutionalised and whether it established a more direct link between the EU decision-making and the EU citizens, thus creating an additional accountability channel. The thesis addresses to which extent the Mechanism is capable of compensating the national parliaments for being cut off from the EU processes. The next task of the work is to assess how well the interparliamentary cooperation works and whether in the three practical instances the Mechanism proved to be effective. Furthermore, the thesis elaborates on whether the novelty was successful and if it realised the potential to curb the democratic deficit problem in the EU. Attention is given as well to the practical issues with the Mechanism implementation and to how the national parliaments are capable of dealing with them. All in all, the thesis at hand is a...

Aim of this Diploma Thesis is to have a closer look at current powers of National Parliaments of the Member States to influence legislative process of the European Union. The main question is how do National Parliaments control legislative process in practise. Theoretical Framework is based on a debate about Democratic Legitimacy of the European Union. First the term needs to be defined and basic arguments about the (non)existence of Democratic deficit need to be introduced, then the research question can be introduced. The main focus is on Early Warning Mechanism and a process of issueing of reasoned opinions. An assumption is that through a process of issueing those reasoned opinions by National Parliaments that consist of a democratic elected political parties a Democratic Legitimacy of the European Union could be strenghtened. It is a one-case study of Czech Parliament. All the reasoned opinions, that Czech Senate and Czech Chamber of Deputies issued, will be analysed.

Climate change is recognized as one of the environmental challenges with disastrous consequences for the human well-being. Hence, there is no doubt that climate change is not only a great environmental concern, but also a developmental challenge that overlaps at many levels. Accordingly, the global community sees climate change and sustainable development as two major challenges of the 21st century that require urgent collective action. The aim of the study was to investigate and analyse South Africa’s policy response in addressing climate change, also considering the added dynamics and imperatives presented by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (AfSD) that enshrines 17 interwoven Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. In order to fulfil this task, five research objectives were developed; namely: (i) to determine the extent to which the South African government has been involved in domesticating and localizing the SDGs agenda (in general) since its birth in January 2016, (ii) to identify policies and institutions dealing with climate change mitigation (including sustainable consumption and production) and document the provisions of such policies, (iii) to determine policy coverage and institutional spread regarding the addressing of climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity, (iv) to audit and present an inventory of institutions and major financial arrangements existing as means of implementing climate change policy in South Africa, and (v) to establish measures in place to improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity development on climate mitigation and adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. A research methodology was adopted which took the form of evaluation research. This research approach is mostly used in large bureaucratic organizations such as government to determine the extent to which a programme or policy is effective. The research design followed a Mixed-Methods Research (MMR), which combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. Primary data was collected from purposefully selected respondents, who participated in the online survey and face to face interviews. The analysis of data entailed the reduction and display of data. Data reduction and display made it possible to code, create themes and concepts; as well as enable the study to make cogent inferences and rational conclusions. In addition, primary data was complemented by document analysis that scrutinized relevant documents to climate change and sustainable development. The study concluded that South Africa has taken reasonable steps to achieve the SDGs because the National Development Plan (NDP) which is aligned to the SDGs was already being implemented. The study also showed that South Africa has put in place institutional mechanisms to implement the SDGs, even though it took longer to put them in place and have them operationalised. The study concluded that South Africa has policies and strategies designed to respond to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, there are several challenges inherent in the policies and strategies that make them ineffective, including policy implementation inertia. While the study confirmed that there are institutions in place to implement climate change policies and strategies; it emerged that capacity is concentrated at the national level, as opposed to the provincial and local government levels, and relies on few experts which makes the system vulnerable and fragile. Regarding funding for both climate change and the SDGs, it emerged that South Africa does not budget enough money, and relies heavily on international donations. The study further revealed that there is dissatisfaction with the public’s involvement in climate change management in the country. It also highlighted the need to improve early warning systems and preparedness to respond to extreme weather events. Hence, the study suggests that there is a need for a serious introspection with regard to the implementation model to ensure that the issues raised by the study are resolved. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)