In the course of past decades, the African Union has sought to strengthen continental security integration and joint governance, wherefore many early warning and security institutions emerged. However, little research has been done to explore the institutional landscape. This thesis aims to bridge the literacy gaps and investigate the ways African early warning institutions constitute challenges or prospects to security integration efforts. The continental level evaluates how integration is affected through various African early warning institutions. The regional level analyses how early warning institutions' methodologies influence sub-regional integration efforts. Lastly, the national level elaborates why African national intelligence and security sectors are determined by authoritarian governance. Similar to the three (continental, regional, national) research questions, this thesis is divided into three levels of analysis. First, the continental level evaluates the Continental Early Warning Systems' institutional struggle with its Regional Early Warning Systems and other organisations within and beyond the African Peace and Security Architecture. Second, the regional level examines the concepts and methodologies behind the six Regional Early Warning Systems for common features and differences....

Using an early warning system (EWS) methodology, this thesis analyses the predictability of stock market crises from the perspective of behavioural fnance. Specifcally, in our EWS based on the multinomial logit model, we consider in- vestor sentiment as one of the potential crisis indicators. Identifcation of the relevant crisis indicators is based on Bayesian model averaging. The empir- ical results reveal that price-earnings ratio, short-term interest rate, current account, credit growth, as well as investor sentiment proxies are the most rele- vant indicators for anticipating stock market crises within a one-year horizon. Our thesis hence provides evidence that investor sentiment proxies should be a part of the routinely considered variables in the EWS literature. In general, the predictive power of our EWS model as evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance is promising. JEL Classifcation G01, G02, G17, G41 Keywords Stock market crises, Early warning system, In- vestor sentiment, Crisis prediction, Bayesian model averaging Title Predicting stock market crises using investor sentiment indicators

Project schedules should mirror the project, as the project takes place. Accurate project schedules, when updated and revised, reflect the actual progress of construction as performed in the field. Various methods for monitoring progress of construction are successful in their representation of actual construction as it takes place. Progress monitoring techniques clearly identify when we are behind schedule, yet it is less obvious to recognize when we are going to slip behind schedule. This research explores how schedule performance measurement mechanisms are used to recognize construction projects that may potentially slip behind schedule, as well as what type of early warning they provide in order to take corrective action. Such early warning systems help prevent situations where the contractor and/or owner are in denial for a number of months that a possible catastrophe of a project is going to finish on time. This research develops the intellectual framework for schedule control systems, based on a review of control systems in the construction industry. The framework forms the foundation for the development of a schedule control technique for forecasting schedule slippage — the Required Performance Method (RPM). The RPM forecasts the required performance needed for timely project completion, and is based on the contractor's ability to expand future work. The RPM is a paradigm shift from control based on scheduled completion date to control based on required performance. This shift enables forecasts to express concern in terms that are more tangible. Furthermore, the shift represents a focus on what needs to be done to achieve a target completion date, as opposed to the traditional focus on what has been done. The RPM is demonstrated through a case study, revealing its ability to forecast impending schedule slippage. / Master of Science

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Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

Climate change affects Sweden by causing mild winters and increased precipitation during the winter season. This will affect the risk for flooding in areas close to water. Flood warnings mean to mitigate and prevent damages that may occur due to flooding.  The purpose of this study is to research how Swedish municipalities and county administrations communicate flood risks and risk preparedness with each other and the Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute (SMHI) to avoid damages. The study also researches how a consequence based early warning system affects the communication and preparedness for flood risks between municipalities, county administrations and SMHI. The subjects of the study are four municipalities and two county administrations that have a significant risk of flooding around the lake Vänern. The methods used are semi-structured interviews for data collection and qualitative data analysis. The result is discussed in relationship to the theoretical frameworks risk governance, risk society and risk communication.  The results of the study show that there is a difference between how municipalities and county administrations perceive the communication between them and SMHI which is the official source of weather-related warnings in Sweden. The relationship between the municipalities and county administrations is mostly good while the relationship between municipalities and SMHI is less so. The communication between county administrations and SMHI is better than that between SMHI and the municipalities. The county administrations believe a new, consequence based early warning system may have a positive impact on the communication between the stakeholders while the municipalities believe the impact will be small or none. The municipalities and county administrations agree that a consequence based early warning system will have a positive effect on the preparedness for floods. / Klimatförändringarna påverkar Sverige med mildare vintrar och en ökad nederbörd under vinterhalvåret som kommer påverka översvämningsrisken i vattennära områden. Översvämningsvarningar är en åtgärd för att mildra och förebygga skador som kan uppstå till följd av höga vattenflöden, höga vattennivåer och skyfall. Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur kommuner och länsstyrelser kommunicerar med varandra och med Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) om översvämningsrisker och beredskap för att anpassa och undvika skador. Studien undersöker även hur ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem påverkar översvämningsberedskap och kommunikation mellan kommuner, länsstyrelser och SMHI. Undersökningens urval består av fyra kommuner och två länsstyrelser med utpekad översvämningsrisk i området kring Vänern. I studien används metoderna semi-strukturerad intervju och kvalitativ innehållsanalys som datainsamlings- och analysmetoder och dess resultat diskuteras utifrån de teoretiska ramverken om riskstyrning, risksamhället och riskkommunikation.  Resultatet pekar mot att det finns en dissonans mellan kommuner och länsstyrelsers uppfattning av den kommunikation som bedrivs mellan dem och SMHI som utfärdar vädervarningar i Sverige. Kommunernas relation till länsstyrelserna är mestadels god medan deras relation till SMHI är mindre god. Kommunikationen mellan Länsstyrelse och SMHI är bättre än den mellan kommun och SMHI. Kommunerna upplever inte att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kommer påverka kommunikationen mellan dem, länsstyrelserna och SMHI. Länsstyrelserna tror däremot att den nya kommunikationskedja som följer med det konsekvensbaserade varningssystemet kan ha en positiv effekt på kommunikationen. Både kommuner och länsstyrelser anser att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kan påverka översvämningsberedskapen positivt.

Yes / Modern early warning system (EWS) requires sophisticated knowledge of the natural hazards, the urban context and underlying risk factors to enable dynamic and timely decision making (e.g., hazard detection, hazard preparedness). Landslides are a common form of natural hazard with a global impact and closely linked to a variety of other hazards. EWS for landslides prediction and detection relies on scientific methods and models which requires input from the time series data, such as the earth observation (EO) and urban environment data. Such data sets are produced by a variety of remote sensing satellites and Internet of things sensors which are deployed in the landslide prone areas. To this end, the automatic discovery of potential time series data sources has become a challenge due to the complexity and high variety of data sources. To solve this hard research problem, in this paper, we propose a novel ontology, namely Landslip Ontology, to provide the knowledge base that establishes relationship between landslide hazard and EO and urban data sources. The purpose of Landslip Ontology is to facilitate time series data source discovery for the verification and prediction of landslide hazards. The ontology is evaluated based on scenarios and competency questions to verify the coverage and consistency. Moreover, the ontology can also be used to realize the implementation of data sources discovery system which is an essential component in EWS that needs to manage (store, search, process) rich information from heterogeneous data sources.

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No / Early warning systems (EWS) for electrical grid infrastructure have played a significant role in the efficient management of electricity supply in natural hazard prone areas. Modern EWS rely on scientific methods to analyze a variety of Earth Observation and ancillary data provided by multiple and heterogeneous data sources for the monitoring of electrical grid infrastructure. Furthermore, through cooperation, EWS for natural hazards contribute to monitoring by reporting hazard events that are associated with a particular electrical grid network. Additionally, sophisticated domain knowledge of natural hazards and electrical grid is also required to enable dynamic and timely decision‐making about the management of electrical grid infrastructure in serious hazards. In this paper, we propose a data integration and analytics system that enables an interaction between natural hazard EWS and electrical grid EWS to contribute to electrical grid network monitoring and support decision‐making for electrical grid infrastructure management. We prototype the system using landslides as an example natural hazard for the grid infrastructure monitoring. Essentially, the system consists of background knowledge about landslides as well as information about data sources to facilitate the process of data integration and analysis. Using the knowledge modeled, the prototype system can report the occurrence of landslides and suggest potential data sources for the electrical grid network monitoring. / FloodPrep, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P017134/1); LandSlip, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P000681/1)