金融機構預警制度在性質上兼具金融管理及經營評鑑之雙重功能，且對於金融危機具有預防及警戒作用之制度，其意義係依據有關之金融法規與金融業務之經營原則，選定若干變數而訂定一套預警函數、指標、臨界值或基準值、判別模型等，將能夠數據化之部份，利用電腦處理資料並進行統計分析與審察，對於未符合規定、逾越警戒範圍之異常數或脫軌狀況，經過測試與核算後，發出預警信號，以促使主管機關或金融機構（或稱銀行）本身提早注意，並加以防範、及時糾正與改善，以促進其健全經營之制度。 近幾年來，在金融國際化與自由化影響下，金融機構業務已日趨複雜，金融監理機關所擔負的責任也越加沈重，為解決此一困境，如何善用場外監控工具，以彌補實地檢查之不足，應是強化當前金融監理制度的有效方案。我們都知道金融監理機關越來越重視場外監控工作，其中最廣為人知且有效發揮其功能的就是「金融預警系統」，它能評估金融機構績效、篩選問題金融機構及顯示有關警訊等功能，如今已成金融監理機關重要輔助工具之一。 關鍵詞：金融機構預警制度、金融機構、金融監理 / Financial early warning system is a line both in the nature of financial management and operational evaluation of the dual function. To the financial crisis, With the role of prevention and warning system. The significance of means in accordance with relevant laws and regulations of the financial business and financial management principles. Certain number of selected variable set of a number of warning function, indication), cutoff or decimal value, discriminant model. According to the number of data, after testing with the accounting, it cause alarm or signal, so that the issue of the fail to meet the requirement, beyond the scope of the warning or to derail the number of abnormal conditions. To encourage the competent authorities or financial institutions (or banks) early attention to itself. By prevent and promptly correct and improve, to promote the sound management of the system. In recent years, financial institutions have become increasingly complex business and responsible for financial supervision authorities increasingly heavy responsibility, under the influence of the financial internationalization and liberalization. To solve this dilemma, how to make the best use of off-site monitoring tool, make up for lack of spot checks. It should be an effective program to strengthen the current financial supervision system. We all know that more and more attention to the financial supervisory authorities to the work of off-site monitoring. One of the most well-known and effective functioning is the “financial early warning system”. It could assess the performance of financial institutions, financial institutions and the issue of screening show that the functions of the police. For the financial supervision authorities, one of the important auxiliary tool, today. Keywords: financial early warning system, financial institutions, financial supervision

自1980年代各國推行金融自由化後，為穩定金融秩序，建立風險導向金融監理制度更顯重要。一般來說，金融監理工具可分為實地檢查及場外監控兩種，過去以行業別進行之監理，在金融控股公司的發展下，亦發展出對應之監控機制，然而僅止於實地檢查機制，以金融集團為預警對象之場外監控預警系統仍有待建立。 本研究遂在探討如何建立適合我國之以金融集團為預警對象的場外監控預警系統，挑選2003、2004年兩年之本國銀行、票券、證券、壽險、產險公司財務業務比率為樣本，以區別分析法建立預警模型，再以各金融控股公司之子產業公司結果建立各年度金融控股公司之預警模型。 本研究僅嘗試以財務比率建立量化場外監控預警模型，研究結果僅供學術上研究參考，並非運用於真實狀況之評斷，因此，依研究結果提出之結論及建議，僅供參考。此外，(1)模型並未加入質化指標，(2)資料有限的情況下，亦無做樣本外測試，(3)無實際破產金融機構資料，僅能以模擬方法分類，皆是本研究不足之處，仍須修正及改進。

Les crises monétaires sont les premières crises financières de l'histoire économique. Elles se traduisent par l'élimination ou la substitution des monnaies nationales. L'objectif de cette thèse est de poser les fondements théoriques et empiriques des crises monétaires, mais également de proposer un cadre de prévention de ce type de crise qui sévit en zone euro depuis 2008. Les débats économiques et politiques actuels autour des questions de désintégration monétaire témoignent de la persistance et de l'ampleur de la crise, où la légitimité et la souveraineté de la monnaie unique est menacée à moyen long terme. Les divers plans de sauvetage et les politiques d'austérité dans les pays-membres en difficulté ne sont que les conséquences et les coûts directs d'une telle crise. Ces derniers doivent interpeller les autorités de supervision à une plus grande vigilance, ainsi qu'à une politique de prévention plus avisée. L'objectif de cette thèse est double : dans une première partie, nous analysons le concept, les fondements historiques et théoriques des crises monétaires, puis dressons une typologie de celles-ci. Dans une seconde partie, nous apportons une contribution empirique relative aux déterminants des crises monétaires en zone euro et proposons un outil de prévention des crises monétaires, grâce à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée (Early Warning System), par l'approche économétrique de type logit multinomial. Pour ce faire, la détection et la mesure des mésalignements des taux de change réels à l'intérieur de la zone euro est cruciale, puisqu'il constitue l'indicateur premier des crises monétaires. L'estimation des taux de change d'équilibre permettent ainsi d'apprécier la sur ou sous-évaluation des monnaies, indispensable à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée, à des fins de prévention des crises monétaires. / Monetary crises are the first financial crises in economic history, which result in the elimination or substitution of national currencies. The aim of this thesis is to study the theoretical and empirical foundations of monetary crises. Furthermore, a framework for the prevention of such crises, raging in the Euro zone since 2008, is provided. The current economic and political debates about this issue reflect the persistence and the extent of this crisis, in which the Euro's legitimacy and sovereignty is threatened in the medium term. The various rescue plans and austerity policies in troubled member states are direct consequences and costs of this crisis. Consequently, supervisory authorities need to be more vigilant in strengthening their prevention policy. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: in the first part, we analyze the concept, the historical and theoretical foundations of monetary crises, and then develop a typology of them. In the second part, we provide an empirical contribution on the determinants of monetary crises in the euro area and propose a tool for preventing currency crises by setting up an Early Warning System, through the econometric approach of the multinomial logit model. As the primary indicator of monetary crises, the detection and measurement of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area is decisive. The equilibrium exchange rates estimation allows the assessment of currency over- or undervaluation, which is essential for the implementation of an early warning system

Magister Artium - MA / This dissertation explores the potential contributions of the mechanisms for early warning and intelligence sharing to regional security in Africa. The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Committee on Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) are centrally concerned with the dissemination of information to enable decision-making on continental security. The main focus of the dissertation is on the manner in which the information generated by the CEWS and CISSA can contribute to regional security. In order to analyse the potential contribution of the CEWS and CISSA to regional security, a sound theoretical framework is proposed so as to explore how and why states choose to cooperate, as well as addressing multifaceted cooperation and integration at inter-state, government department and nonstate levels. Constructivist interpretations of international cooperation are utilised to explore the role of ideas, meanings and understandings in shaping behaviour. The focus is placed on the manner in which interaction as provided for by the CEWS and CISSA can shape understandings of reality and potentially impact on the definition of actors' interests. This is based on the assumption drawn from security community and epistemic community theory that, enabling the creation of shared meanings and shared knowledge there is the potential for both the CEWS and CISSA to have a positive influence on the choices that stakeholders take in favour of peaceful change. / South Africa

La surveillance d’un glissement de terrain vise à anticiper sa rupture pour réduire le risque d’accident. Elle s'opère généralement en mesurant les déplacements du sol. Ce travail propose une nouvelle technique de mesure de déplacement de glissements, flexible et à bas coût, basée sur l’utilisation d’étiquettes d’identification radiofréquence (RFID). La méthode de localisation d’étiquettes par différence de phase à 866 MHz est explorée en conditions extérieures et sur de longues durées. Cette étude a montré une détérioration de la mesure causée par les variations de température, d’humidité, de neige et de végétation. Après application de corrections, la précision de mesure a été améliorée, passant de ±20 cm à ±1 cm en conditions extérieures courantes. Cette technique fonctionne également en conditions neigeuses et en présence d’herbes hautes, mais avec une incertitude de mesure plus élevée (±8 et 4 cm respectivement). Ces erreurs de mesure sont provoquées par des effets de propagation, d’interférence multitrajets, et de per-turbations à proximité des antennes. Un système de mesure en continu a été déployé sur le glissement de terrain de Pont-Bourquin, en Suisse, pendant cinq mois. Ce dispositif a validé l’efficacité de la technique en conditions réelles. De plus, la mesure résiste bien aux intempéries et le dispositif demande peu de maintenance, en comparaison avec les techniques conven-tionnelles (extensomètre, GPS, station totale).Deux méthodes de mesure complémentaires aux déplacements ont ensuite été étudiées. La méthode de corrélation de vibrations ambiantes est prometteuse, mais n’a pas encore été utilisée en surveillance opérationnelle. Une étude bibliographique souligne plusieurs verrous à lever, tels que la correction des variations saisonnières et journalières, l’augmentation de la résolution temporelle, et le choix des paramètres de traitement adaptés au site surveillé. La méthode qui consiste à inverser une fonction de transfert entre des données de pluie et de déplacements est ensuite étudiée. Une inversion haute résolution de cette fonction est proposée. Elle permet d’identifier des comportements hydrologiques complexes (ex : infiltration à deux vitesses sur le site de Pont-Bourquin) et de mesurer leur évolution. Les avancées de cette thèse vont permettre d’améliorer la surveillance opérationnelle tout en réduisant son coût, répondant aux besoins des collectivités territoriales. / Landslide early-warning systems are based primarily on monitoring the displacement of the landslide. This work develops a new technique for monitoring these displacements, using radio-frequency identification (RFID) passive tags and phase-based location technique. This technique is deployed for the first time outdoors and for several months. Outdoor conditions revealed strong environmental influences due to temperature variations, moisture, snow and vegetation. These can cause a ±20 cm measurement uncertainty over a year, which is too large for landslide monitoring applications. The correction of these effects allows reaching the accuracy of ±1 cm under normal conditions, ±8 cm with snow and ±4 cm with dense high grass. The remaining effects due to snow and grass are explained by the influence of this material on the direct propagation, on the multipath interferences and on the antennas. This measurement system has been deployed on the Pont-Bourquin landslide for five months. The results validate the technique for landslide monitoring applications. The technique also shows the operational benefits of robustness to bad weather, easy maintenance and low-cost material, compared to conventional techniques (extensometer, GPS, total station).This thesis then studies two complementary monitoring methods that had recently been shown to provide precursors to landslide rupture. First, ambient seismic noise interferometry is used to detect a drop of shear-wave velocity prior to a rupture. The seismic method was studied in the literature to identify what must be developed to use this technique in an operational early-warning system. It requires getting rid of daily and seasonal environmental influences, choosing the processing parameters appropriate to the monitored landslide, and improving the temporal resolution below one day while keeping a stable enough signal. The other method consists of inverting an impulse response between rainfall and displacement rate, with a high resolution. It can shed light on complex infiltration processes (e.g. infiltration with two different delays at Pont-Bourquin) and detect their abnormal evolution across time. These developments should improve landslide operational monitoring with a low budget.

No description available.

Med nya utmaningar för att tillgodose behoven av tjänligt dricksvatten hos konsumenter över hela världen krävs innovativa tekniker för övervakning av vattenkvalitet. I det här projektet undersöktes ett nytt instrument som detekterar och klassificerar partiklar i dricksvatten med hjälp av maskininlärda modeller. Målet var att utvärdera dess användbarhet som ett onlinesystem för tidig varning på Norrvattens reningsverket och ledningsnät. Utvärderingen utfördes som två separata delar: (1) en översiktlig analys av data som tidigare samlats in av tre instrument placerade på Norrvattens reningsverk och ledningsnät med målet att hitta trender och definiera tröskelnivåer, och (2) genom att utföra spikningsexperiment i instrumentet med kända föroreningar i laboratoriemiljö. Föroreningarna som undersöktes var E. coli, B. megaterium, humussyror, cyanobakterier av stam Synechocystis PCC 6803, och biofilm. Flödescytometri genomfördes på samma föroreningar för att möjliggöra jämförelser. Dataanalysen visade att instrumentet kan upptäcka säsongsvariationer i partikelnivåer. Dessutom har det partikelklasser som inte varierade med dessa fluktuationer vilket gör dem lovande som oberoende parametrar i ett varningssystem. Det fanns dock indikationer på att instrumentet kan göra oförutsedda klassifikationer av partiklar utifrån skillnader i sammansättningen mellan träningsdatats vatten och vattnet på Norrvatten. De laborativa experimenten visade att instrumentet kunde detektera alla föroreningar som testades, även vid cellantal på några få hundra celler/mL. Det kunde jämföras med flödescytometern, där det nya instrumentet kunde upptäcka halter av cyanobakterier under detektionsgränsen för flödescytometern, vilket indikerar en hög känslighet. Därför drogs slutsatsen att instrumentet har potential som tidigt varningssystem, men dess användbarhet hos Norrvatten är begränsad i dess nuvarande tillstånd på grund av de oförutsedda klassificeringarna av partiklar i deras vatten. / With emerging challenges in ensuring safe supplies of drinking water to consumers worldwide, there is a need for innovative technologies for water quality monitor- ing. In this project, an instrument which can detect and classify particles in drinking water using machine-learned models was investigated. The aim was to assess its usefulness as an online, early warning system in the drinking water treatment plant and distribution system at Norrvatten. The assessment was conducted as two separate parts: (1) an analysis of data previously collected by three instruments located around Norrvatten’s plant and distribution system, with the aim of finding trends and creating baselines, and (2) by conducting spiking experiments in the instrument using known contaminants in a lab environment. The contaminants tested were E. coli, B. megaterium, humic acids, cyanobacteria Synechocystis PCC 6803, and biofilm. Flow cytometry was performed on the same contaminants to enable comparison. It could be concluded from the data analysis that the instrument can detect seasonal trends in particle levels. In addition, there are classes of particles which are not subject to these fluctuations, making them promising as independent parameters in a warning system. There were however indications that the instrument can make unexpected classifications of particles due to differences in composition in the training data water and the water at Norrvatten. The lab experiments showed that the instrument could detect all contaminants tested, even cell numbers of a few hundred cells/mL. Comparing with flow cytometry, the novel instrument could detect concentrations of cyanobacteria below the detection limit of the flow cytometer, indicating a high sensitivity. It was concluded that the instrument has properties desired in an early warning system, but its usefulness at Norrvatten is limited in its current state due to the unexpected classifications of particles in their water.

[pt] A seca é um dos desastres naturais mais críticos que tem efeitos devastadores sobre habitats naturais, ecossistemas e muitos setores econômicos e sociais. Devido a esses graves impactos dos eventos de seca, muitos estudos estão focados no monitoramento, previsão e análise de risco de secas para auxiliar os planos de preparação e medidas de mitigação. Esta tese propõe um sistema de monitoramento e alerta de secas na região do semiárido do Brasil, chamado Drought Risk Assessment Interface (DRAI), que se baseia em um índice composto de risco de seca. O índice de risco possui duas componentes: ameaça e vulnerabilidade. A ameaça considera indicadores meteorológicos, enquanto a vulnerabilidade considera variáveis sociais. Com base na opinião de especialistas de vários países do mundo, com mais de 10 anos de experiência na área, foi definido o peso de cada um desses indicadores usando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP - Analytical Hierarchy Process). Os resultados foram comparados com outros índices de seca com o intuito de validar o índice proposto. Em seguida, foram levantados os principais sistemas de monitoramento e alertas em nível nacional e internacional e, então, foi proposto um padrão para geração de alertas no DRAI. Os alertas foram associados à sete medidas de mitigação de risco de seca validadas por técnicos locais. O DRAI tem como usuário final, além de outros pesquisadores, as Defesas Civis que poderão atuar diretamente nas ações de mitigação dos riscos. Como pesquisas futuras, sugere-se a automatização da coleta dos dados que compõem o índice de ameaça bem como a aplicação do estudo para todo o território brasileiro. / [en] Drought is one of the most critical natural disasters that have devastating effects on natural habitats, ecosystems and many economic and social sectors. Due to these severe impacts of drought events, many studies are focused on monitoring, forecasting and analyzing drought risk, to help with drought preparedness plans and mitigation measures. This study presents a drought early warning system in the semiarid region of Brazil, called the Drought Risk Assessment Interface (DRAI), which is based on a composite index of meteorological drought risk. The risk index has two components: hazard and vulnerability. The hazard considers meteorological indicators while the vulnerability considers social variables. Based on the opinion of experts from several countries in the world, with more than ten years of experience in the field, we define the weight of each of these indicators using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Then, the main early warning systems at national and international level were raised and then, a standard for generating warnings in the DRAI was proposed. The warnings were associated with seven drought risk mitigation measures validated by local technicians. DRAI has as its end user, in addition to other researchers, Civil Defenses that can act directly in risk mitigation actions. Finally, the system and its main features are presented. As future research, we suggest automating the collection of data that make up the hazard index as well as applying the study to the entire Brazilian territory.

Under covid-19-pandemin har avloppsvattenbaserad epidemiologi (WBE) använts i stor utsträckning som ett komplement till kliniska tester över många delar av världen. Detta projekt syftade till att detektera och kvantifiera belastningen av Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) i avloppsvattenprover med hjälp av Revers transkriptas kvantitativ polymeraskedjereaktion (RT-qPCR). De analyserade proverna kom från fyra olika avloppsreningsverk i Sverige, under perioden november 2022 till maj 2023. Studien omfattade en översikt över olika provtagnings- och analytiska tekniker och normaliseringsmetoder som används i WBE-studier, vilket betonade vikten av metodval. SARS-CoV-2-RNA upptäcktes i alla analyserade prover och infektionstrender kunde identifieras effektivt, inklusive COVID-19-vågen som observerades under semesterperioden. De dominerande varianterna som upptäcktes under denna övervakningsperiod var omikron variantens undergrupper, BA.2. och BA.2.75. Den veckovisa kvantifierade SARS-CoV-2-belastningen i avloppsvattenproverna visade en signifikant positiv korrelation till de kliniska fall som rapporterats i motsvarande avrinningsområden. Denna associering förstärktes ytterligare genom att normalisera SARS-CoV-2-innehållet med fekal biomarkör peppar milt fläckvirus (PMMoV). Dessutom har två metoder för tidig varning, nämligen medelvärdet plus två standardavvikelser (MSD) och positiv procentuell förändring (PPC), implementerats på avloppsvattendata, vilket pekar på vikten av att tillämpa sådana varningsmetoder för att ge förståeliga och tolkbara resultat. Denna studie ger värdefulla insikter om övervakning och analys av SARS-CoV-2 i avloppsvatten, vilket bidrar till utvecklingen av robusta system för tidig varning och folkhälsostrategier. / During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been applied extensively as a complementary tool to clinical testing across many parts of the globe. This project aimed to detect and measure the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) load in wastewater samples using Reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The analyzed samples were from four different wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Sweden, covering the period from November 2022 through May 2023. The study encompassed an overview of various sampling and analytical techniques and normalization approaches employed in WBE studies, highlighting the importance of method selection. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in all the samples analyzed, and infection trends could be identified effectively, including the COVID-19 peak observed during the holiday season. The dominant variants detected during this monitoring period were the omicron variants; omicron BA.2. and omicron BA.2.75. The weekly quantified SARS-CoV-2 load in the wastewater samples showed a significant positive correlation to the clinical cases reported in the corresponding catchment areas. This association was further enhanced by normalizing SARS-CoV-2 content with the fecal biomarker pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV). Furthermore, two early warning methods, namely the mean plus two standard deviations (MSD) and positive percentage change (PPC), were implemented on the wastewater data pinpointing the importance of applying such warning methods to provide understandable and interpretable results. This study provides valuable insights into the monitoring and analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, contributing to the development of robust early warning systems and public health strategies.

It is the intention of this thesis to effectively describe what is known about EI systems to date. Many sources of information are used, beginning with peer reviewed journals such as Justice Quarterly, Police Quarterly, Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, Police and Society and The American Journal of Criminal Justice. Also reports from criminal justice research affiliates will be used like the National Institute of Justice and the National Criminal Justice Reference Service. This thesis will work towards creating a comprehensive outline of the history of EI and future possibilities. With the aid of extant research, inquiries into the effectiveness of various EI systems, their shortcomings, or even best practices will be addressed. The aim is to review the existing discussion essentially paving the way for future researchers to conduct primary research studies on EI effectiveness. By accumulating, and subsequently compiling available research, the hope is to identify key arguments and perspectives on these systems and their implementation.