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This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-28 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Triagem é um processo realizado nos departamentos de emergência de hospitais que visa ordenar o atendimento dos pacientes de acordo com suas necessidades de cuidados. Por outro lado, um sistema de alerta precoce se trata de um protocolo empregado pelos hospitais para detectar a deterioração dos sinais vitais (gravidade) dos pacientes. Quando bem efetuados, esses processos podem potencialmente aumentar as chances de vida dos pacientes com alto grau de complicações, guiando seu tratamento e o correto diagnóstico. A mobilidade é uma necessidade por profissionais da área de saúde para desempenhar suas atividades diárias e isso vai ao encontro da ascensão da computação móvel e ubíqua. Dispositivos vestíveis e dispositivos inteligentesestão cada vez mais presentes no nosso cotidiano. Com isso, esse trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo computacional, denominado de UbiTriagem 2, para apoio ao processo triagem que suporta um sistema de alerta precoce, fazendo o uso dos conceitos da computação móvel e ubíqua e Internet das coisas voltados à área de saúde. A principal contribuição científica desse trabalho foi prever a interoperabilidade entre diferentes protocolos de triagem e de deterioração de sinais vitais (gravidade) empregados hoje nos hospitais fazendo o uso de uma ontologia. Além disso, outra preocupação foi agregar, também nessa ontologia, informações coletadas de diferentes sensores IoT (como fonte de dados) para inferir a triagem e a gravidade dos pacientes. O modelo foi avaliado através de cenários, que mostraram que o modelo está apto para ser utilizado em um departamento de emergência. Em relação à triagem, foi possível concluir que o modelo foi capaz de determinar corretamente a classificação do paciente em 93,33% das situações avaliadas e, com pequenos ajustes, atingimos 100% dos casos. O sistema de alerta precoce se mostrou assertivo em 86,71% dos casos, por outro lado podemos concluir que ele se assemelha muito à avaliação qualitativa efetuada por um médico regulador especialista em emergências. Além disso em 63,61% de todos os casos atendidos em um departamento de emergência, vindos do SAMU, poderiam ser beneficiados por esse modelo. Por fim, com a avaliação efetuada através da metodologia de grupo focal, podemos destacar como pontos positivo do modelo desenvolvido: a utilização de protocolos já validados; o acompanhamento das filas de atendimento; o uso de dispositivos móveis; a diminuição em erros na utilização dos protocolos; o uso de dispositivos vestíveis para o monitoramento dos pacientes; um modelo não-intrusivo; o auxílio no registro de dados do atendimento; um maior respaldo às decisões dos enfermeiros; a diminuição das taxas de mortalidade e de maiores complicações; e a diminuição no custo do atendimento por paciente. / Triage is a process performed in the emergency department of hospitals aimed at sorting the patients according to their needs of care. On the other hand, an early warning system is a protocol used by hospitals to detect the deterioration of patient’s vital signs. When well performed, these processes can potentially increase the chances of life of patients with a high degree of complications, guiding their treatment and the correct diagnosis. Mobility is a musthave requirement for healthcare professionals to perform their daily activities and this is in the same way with the rise of mobile and ubiquitous computing. Mobile and wearable devices are increasingly present in our daily lives. This study aims to develop a computational model, called UbiTriagem 2, to support the triage process, supporting an early warning system, using the concepts of mobile and ubiquitous computing and Internet of things related to healthcare. The main scientific contribution of this study was to propose the interoperability between different protocols of triage and deterioration of vital signs (severity) used today in hospitals using an ontology. In addition, another concern was to aggregate, also in the ontology, information collected from different IoT sensors (as data source) to infer the triage and severity of patients. The model was evaluated through scenarios, which showed that the model is apt to be used in an emergency department. In relation to the triage, it was possible to conclude that the model was able to correctly determine the patient’s classification in 93.33% of the evaluated situations and, with minor adjustments, reached 100% of the cases. The early warning system was assertive in 86.71% of the cases, on the other hand we can conclude that it closely resembles the qualitative evaluation carried out by an emergency medical regulator. In addition, 63.61% of all cases from SAMU in the emergency department could benefit from this model. Finally, with the evaluation made through the focus group methodology, we can highlight as positive points of the developed model: the use of already validated protocols; the follow-up of the service queues; the use of mobile devices; the decrease in errors in the use of protocols; the use of wearable devices to monitor patients; a non-intrusive model; the aid in recording attendance data; greater support for nurses’ decisions; the reduction of mortality rates and major complications; and the decrease in the cost of care per patient.

Les Systèmes d’alerte précoce (SAP) sont des dispositifs d’évaluation de la sécurité alimentaire permettant de guider les décideurs humanitaires et gouvernementaux dans le ciblage de l’aide alimentaire d’urgence, grâce à des analyses quantifiées et cartographiées. Analysé au travers du prisme sociologique, le SAP est lu comme un système expert flou permettant de stabiliser des consensus institutionnels dans des environnements incertains, grâce à son investissement de forme chiffré et cartographié. La thèse est articulée autour de l’hypothèse centrale que le SAP éthiopien participe aux stratégies d’extraversion de l’aide internationale par l’État-Parti, renforçant ses capacités de contrôle et d’encadrement des populations et de l’administration. Cette hypothèse est vérifiée au travers d’analyses de jeux d’acteurs – les experts en charge du ciblage de l’aide, agissant comme des courtiers de développement situés aux interfaces institutionnelles multiples – , au travers des normes professionnelles, pratiques et sociales mobilisées lors des exercices d’évaluation, et des jeux d’échelles passant du micro au macro. Une première partie démontre comment le registre technico-scientifique du SAP découle des représentations techniques et apolitiques des famines et de l’évolution du régime de l’aide alimentaire internationale. L’exploration ethnographique de la pratique des agents révèle que les normes officielles du SAP éthiopien relèvent d’une hybridation entre des normes humanitaires et des normes de la bureaucratie éthiopienne. Les généalogies des normes humanitaires et de la bureaucratie éthiopiennes conduites au travers d’analyses sociologiques, anthropologiques et historiques, mettent en exergue comment le registre technique permet d’agréger ces deux mondes institutionnels, en occultant toute dimension politique. Un retour ethnographique détaillant les jeux de normes montre comment leur articulation par les agents, le long des échelles de la hiérarchie, est présidée par l’empirisme et la négociation, aménageant les marges de manœuvre aux kadre du Parti, pour influer discrètement sur les résultats et le ciblage de l’aide. À l’échelle villageoise, nous verrons comment le ciblage de l’aide renforce l’encadrement et le contrôle des populations par les kadre. Enfin, nous reviendrons sur les enjeux méthodologiques des enquêtes de terrain conduites par un ancien humanitaire. / Early Warning Systems (EWS) are food security assessment devices that quantify the need of food aid for humanitarian and government decision-makers in the targeting of emergency food aid through quantified and mapped analyzes. Analyzed through the sociological prism, the EWS is a blurr « system of expertise » stabilizing institutional consensus in uncertain environments, thanks to its investment of quantified and mapped form. The thesis is based on the central hypothesis that the Ethiopian EWS participates in strategies of extraversion of the international aid by the State Party, reinforcing its capacities of control and supervision of the populations and the administration. This hypothesis is verified through analyzes of experts in charge of targeting aid, acting as development brokers located at multiple institutional interfaces - through their professional, practical and social norms, and following different steps from micro to macro scales of the device. We shall first recall how the technical-scientific register of EWS derives from the technical and apolitical representations of famines and the evolution of the international food aid regime. A first ethnographic exploration of the practice of agents reveals that these norms are a hybridization between humanitarian norms and bureaucratic norms. We will study these norms separately through sociological, anthropological and historical analyzes, highlighting how the technical register makes possible to aggregate these two universes, hidding political dimensions. An ethnographic study detailing the sets of norms will show how their articulation by the agents, along the hierarchical scales, is presided over by empiricism and negotiation, adjusting the margins of maneuver to the kadre of the Party, to discreetly influence the results and the target of aid. At the village level, we will see how the targeting of aid reinforces the supervision and control of the populations by the kadre. Finally, we will return to the methodological stakes of the field investigations conducted by a former humanitarian.

2007年8月美國爆發次貸危機(Subprime Crisis)，如此新型態的金融危機是否可由金融危機預警系統預測？是本文所欲探討的目標。本文採用訊號方法、固定效果下的Panel Logit Model和CART(Classification and Regression Tree)三種計量方法建構危機預警模型。最後利用美國2006年至2008年資料，驗證本文所建構之預警模型是否能夠有效預測次貸危機的發生。 / “Could banking early warning systems help to predict Sub-prime crisis?” That is the main issue that we want to discuss. We combine three kinds of early warning systems models – Signal Approach, fixed effect panel logit model, and CART approach – to create a new banking early warning system(EWS). We will use the US 2006-2008 data to examine whether this new EWS could predict the Sub-prime crisis correctly.

<p>This dissertation explores the potential contributions of the mechanisms for early warning and intelligence sharing to regional security in Africa. The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Committee on Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) are centrally concerned with the dissemination of information to enable decision-making on continental security. The main focus of the dissertation is on the manner in which the information generated by the CEWS and CISSA can contribute to regional security. In order to analyse the potential contribution of the CEWS and CISSA to regional security, a sound theoretical framework is proposed so as to explore how and why states choose to cooperate, as well as addressing multifaceted cooperation and integration at inter-state, government department and nonstate levels. Constructivist interpretations of international cooperation are utilised to explore the role of ideas, meanings and understandings in shaping behaviour. The focus is placed on the manner in which interaction as provided for by the CEWS and CISSA can shape understandings of reality and potentially impact on the definition of actors&rsquo / interests. This is based on the assumption drawn from security community and epistemic community theory that, enabling the creation of shared meanings and shared knowledge there is the potential for both the CEWS and CISSA to have a positive influence on the choices that stakeholders take in favour of peaceful change.</p>

<p>This dissertation explores the potential contributions of the mechanisms for early warning and intelligence sharing to regional security in Africa. The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Committee on Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) are centrally concerned with the dissemination of information to enable decision-making on continental security. The main focus of the dissertation is on the manner in which the information generated by the CEWS and CISSA can contribute to regional security. In order to analyse the potential contribution of the CEWS and CISSA to regional security, a sound theoretical framework is proposed so as to explore how and why states choose to cooperate, as well as addressing multifaceted cooperation and integration at inter-state, government department and nonstate levels. Constructivist interpretations of international cooperation are utilised to explore the role of ideas, meanings and understandings in shaping behaviour. The focus is placed on the manner in which interaction as provided for by the CEWS and CISSA can shape understandings of reality and potentially impact on the definition of actors&rsquo / interests. This is based on the assumption drawn from security community and epistemic community theory that, enabling the creation of shared meanings and shared knowledge there is the potential for both the CEWS and CISSA to have a positive influence on the choices that stakeholders take in favour of peaceful change.</p>

Zusammenschlüsse über Firmengrenzen hinweg sind mit Risiken verbunden, besonders bei Einbindung von Mitarbeitern. Ein neu entwickeltes Frühwarnsystem ermöglicht ein rechtzeitiges Eingreifen in die Kooperationsprozesse, bevor eine erfolgsmindernde Wirkung einsetzen könnte. Es basiert auf Forschungsergebnissen zu Führung und Mitarbeitermotivation in Projektgruppen und orientiert sich an den Erfahrungen von Managern bei der Gestaltung interorganisationaler Zusammenarbeit. Die informationsund kommunikationstechnische Umsetzung dient dem ökonomischen orts- und zeitflexiblen Einsatz sowie einer schnellen Rückmeldung. Inzwischen wurde das Frühwarnsystem in verschiedenen Kooperationsprojekten eingesetzt und von den Beteiligten positiv angenommen.

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