This dissertation examines the cost behavior model implicit in analysts' and investors' decisions. Even though a cost behavior model that recognizes fixed and variable costs and cost stickiness can provide more accurate earnings forecasts, analysts and investors cannot fully capture sticky cost information. Since analysts are not fully aware of the correct cost behavior model, earnings surprises can be largely explained by a cost model that recognizes sticky stickiness. Similarly, investors' under-reaction to sticky cost information relates to post-earnings announcement drifts. As a result, positive abnormal returns can be earned by a trading strategy that takes advantage of investors' lower awareness of sticky cost information. / Business Administration/Accounting

This dissertation explores three current issues relevant to the accounting and business communities by empirically examining the effect these issues have on the bond credit market. The first study examines the effect earnings predictability has on both the initial bond rating and the initial pricing of the issue. Earnings predictability is measured as (1) the annual earnings surprise (actual minus analyst forecast) and (2) the dispersion of initial analyst forecasts. The results indicate a negative association between a lack of earnings predictability and both bond ratings and initial bond price. The results are consistent with creditors interpreting greater earnings variability as a dimension of default risk incremental to the benchmark model. These results add to the existing literature by documenting a favorable benefit in the credit arena for firms that have predictable earnings. The second study investigates the effect perceived auditor independence has on the rating assigned to newly issued bonds. The magnitude of non-audit service fees is utilized as a proxy for auditor independence. The results of the study document a consistent negative relationship between the level of non-audit fees provided by the external auditor and the bond rating received by the client for new issues. Several non-audit fee measures are used in the study (raw measure, log scaled, asset scaled, unexpected) and each possess a significant negative association with a firm's bond rating. Importantly, no economic effect was discernable in a classification accuracy analysis. The third study examines what effect, if any, longer auditor tenure has on the client's bond rating. There is some contention that longer auditor tenure can lead to substandard audits either through the auditor's excessive desire to retain the client or through general auditor complacency. However, the issue of auditor tenure is far from one-sided. An alternative view asserts that longer auditor tenure increases client-specific knowledge and, thus, results in increased audit quality. Results indicate a positive association between auditor tenure and the client's bond rating on new issues suggesting that longer auditor tenure is perceived to be beneficial by bond rating analysts. This is consistent with financial statement users perceiving longer tenured auditors to have more client specific knowledge thus increasing auditor competency and a better audit. Overall, these results contribute to the existing knowledge-base in accounting by empirically demonstrating how several important issues of interest to the accounting profession are impounded into a firm's bond rating. This research provides a detailed look at how one important group of knowledgeable financial statement users, i.e. bond rating analysts, incorporate several issues that are relevant and important to the professional community. / Ph. D.

<p>Lic.-avh. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013</p>

I examine the implications of changes in operating profit margins during a sales decline for future earnings and abnormal stock returns. When sales decrease, managers decide whether to cut slack resources. Managers who are optimistic about their future operations often retain slack resources in anticipation of resurging sales, thereby decreasing concurrent profitability. Conversely, managers who are pessimistic about their future operations typically reduce slack resources to gain efficiency, thereby increasing concurrent profitability. I find that analysts and investors persistently underestimate the future profitability of firms that exhibit a large decrease in current profitability. I also find that subsequent quarterly earnings announcements gradually reveal future profitability, resulting in concentrated positive abnormal returns in short pre-announcement windows for about a year after a sales decline. These results suggest that analysts and investors have difficulties evaluating managers’ resource adjustment decisions when a large decrease in concurrent profitability can indicate managers’ optimistic expectations. / Business Administration/Accounting

達成或超越分析師的盈餘預期為公司重要目標之一，市場包括投資人或分析師對於公司達成盈餘預期目標的反應，一直為學界所關心。文獻發現達成盈餘預期目標的公司，確實享有較未達成目標者更高的股價報酬，顯示市場對此持有正面的反應，因為達成目標的公司，未來將有較佳的獲利能力。本文延伸文獻之探討，進一步考量經濟環境因素---景氣反轉，在這一議題上可能扮演的角色，亦即試圖探討景氣反轉時市場對公司達成或超越分析師盈餘預期的反應，以及達成盈餘預期目標的資訊內涵，會如何受到景氣反轉因素的影響。 實證結果發現達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件所帶來的股價反應，不會受到景氣由上往下反轉的影響而有所差異，但分析師對此等事件的反應則會隨景氣由上往下反轉而更為強烈，在景氣由下往上反轉時則較無差異；至於此等事件所隱含公司未來將有較佳獲利能力的資訊內涵，雖不會隨著景氣由上往下反轉而有所差異，卻會隨著景氣由下往上反轉而更為增強。 / Meeting or beating analysts’ earnings forecasts is an important goal for the management to achieve. As a result, the market reaction to the meeting of earnings expectations has been intensively explored. In general, the meeting of earnings expectations signals brilliant future profitability to the investors. Following this line of research, this study further investigates the effect of business cycle on the relationship between market reaction and the meeting of earnings expectations. We find that the stock returns of firms meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts are not affected by the sudden downturn of the economy. On the contrary, analysts’ response to such events becomes stronger in the economic downturn though it remains the same when the economy rebounds. As for the issue of information content, meeting earnings expectations is more informative when the economy rebounds from recession but not in the downturn of the economy.

No description available.

This thesis examines the response of a representative agent investor to sequences (streaks) of quarterly earnings surprises over a period of twelve quarters using the United States S&P500 constituent companies sample frame in the years 1991 to 2006. This examination follows the predictive performance of the representative agent model of Rabin (2002b) [Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117(3).p.775 816] and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) [A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics. 49. p.307 343] for an investor who might be under the influence of the law of small numbers, or another closely related cognitive bias known as the gambler s fallacy. Chapters 4 and 5 present two related empirical studies on this broad theme. In chapter 4, for successive sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes over a twelve-quarter horizon of quarterly earnings increases or falls, I ask whether the models can capture the likelihood of reversion. Secondly, I ask, what is the representative investor s response to observed sequences of quarterly earnings changes for my S&P500 constituent sample companies? I find a far greater frequency of extreme persistent quarterly earnings rises (of nine quarters and more) than falls and hence a more muted reaction to their occurrence from the market. Extreme cases of persistent quarterly earnings falls are far less common than extreme rises and are more salient in their impact on stock prices. I find evidence suggesting that information discreteness; that is the frequency with which small information about stock value filters into the market is one of the factors that foment earnings momentum in stocks. However, information discreteness does not subsume the impact of sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes, or earnings streakiness as a strong candidate that drives earnings momentum in stock returns in my S&P500 constituent stock sample. Therefore, earnings streakiness and informational discreteness appear to have separate and additive effects in driving momentum in stock price. In chapter 5, the case for the informativeness of the streaks of earnings surprises is further strengthened. This is done by examining the explanatory power of streaks of earnings surprises in a shorter horizon of three days around the period when the effect of the nature of earnings news is most intense in the stock market. Even in shorter windows, investors in S&P500 companies seem to be influenced by the lengthening of negative and positive streaks of earnings surprises over the twelve quarters of quarterly earnings announcement I study here. This further supports my thesis that investors underreact to sequences of changes in their expectations about stock returns. This impact is further strengthened by high information uncertainties in streaks of positive earnings surprise. However, earnings streakiness is one discrete and separable element in the resolution of uncertainty around equity value for S&P 500 constituent companies. Most of the proxies for earnings surprise show this behaviour especially when market capitalisation, age and cash flow act as proxies of information uncertainty. The influence of the gambler s fallacy on the representative investor in the presence of information uncertainty becomes more pronounced when I examine increasing lengths of streaks of earnings surprises. The presence of post earnings announcement drift in my large capitalised S&P500 constituents sample firms confirms earnings momentum to be a pervasive phenomenon which cuts across different tiers of the stock markets including highly liquid stocks, followed by many analysts, which most large funds would hold.

This paper investigates whether greater investor distraction on the Swedish stock market during the summer months of June, July and August leads to a more pronounced post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) effect, during the ten year period between 2000 and 2009. PEAD is an anomaly whereby the information contained in earnings announcements is not immediately or completely incorporated into stock prices, in the cases where the announcement contains an ‘earnings surprise’. The methodology involves using the standardised unexpected earnings (SUE) metric to measure the level of ‘earnings surprise’ and a buy and hold abnormal returns (BHAR) trading strategy to measure return. The study tests and confirms the existence of greater investor distraction during summer months on the Swedish market. For a holding period of 12 months, a BHAR trading strategy generates a greater abnormal return for summer months (11.3%) compared with the abnormal return for non-summer months (10.5%). These results are also interesting in a broader context, as they confirm the existence of the PEAD effect, one of the strongest counter-arguments to the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH); the foundation of many financial models used for stock market valuation. This is because, according to the EMH, in an efficient market it should not be possible to generate abnormal returns based on available information. However, it may be noted that these results do not take into account transaction costs. This means that while it can be demonstrated that there is greater investor distraction during the Swedish summer, in order to implement a successful trading strategy based on this finding, further testing would be required. Therefore, based on the findings of this paper, a number of areas for future research have been identified.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 68472.pdf.jpg: 26974 bytes, checksum: 034a1c3c9d998708ccd9d2147b6ae400 (MD5) 68472.pdf: 1943638 bytes, checksum: 074240d8b8c6bdfa6dfcfb36d0dd4f75 (MD5) 68472.pdf.txt: 413719 bytes, checksum: bc028bb1f27dfc3f51effc0a0cdcb7af (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-04-14T00:00:00Z / The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the financial analysts of Brazilian firms. By gathering data from the market and analyzing the current performance of the firms, these professionals prepare earnings forecasts and stock recommendations. Using I/B/E/S database, it is presented a broad empirical research of the earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, as well as their information content for the Brazilian capital market. The empirical studies covered the period from January 1995 to June 2003. This thesis starts with the discussion of some concepts and the modus operandi of the financial analysts of Brazilian firms. After a literature review in the area, the empirical studies begin with the analysis of the earnings forecast errors. Some of their characteristics, such as accuracy, bias and precision are investigated in different contexts. After a critical analysis of the informational content for different types of earnings forecast revisions and actual announced earnings deviated form analysts expectations (earnings surprises), evidences of price effects in response to these facts are documented. The last part of this thesis discusses the role of stock recommendations in the Brazilian market. The percentage distribution of stock recommendations is verified as well as the informational content of stock recommendations. Other studies are carried out to verify the performance of the consensus stock recommendations and the effects of downgrades and upgrades of recommendations for Brazilian companies. / Esta tese propõe-se a analisar os analistas de mercado de capitais de empresas brasileiras. Coletando informações do mercado e analisando o desempenho corrente das empresas, estes profissionais realizam projeções de resultados e fazem recomendações. Usando dados extraídos do sistema I/B/E/S, realiza-se uma abrangente pesquisa empírica das previsões e recomendações dos analistas, bem como de seu conteúdo informativo para o mercado brasileiro. O período de estudo foi entre janeiro 1995 a junho 2003. Inicialmente são discutidos conceitos e particularidades do modus operandi dos analistas de empresas brasileiras. A seguir, depois de uma revisão da literatura onde se documentam as principais contribuições e descobertas, procede-se a uma investigação da natureza dos erros de previsão dos analistas de empresas brasileiras. Características como a acurácia, viés e precisão das previsões dos analistas são apreciadas e contextualizadas em diferentes situações. Efetua-se um detalhamento analítico do conteúdo informativo dos diferentes tipos de revisões de previsões dos analistas e das surpresas provocadas pelo anúncio de resultados em desacordo com as expectativas. De modo geral, as revisões e as surpresas, na medida em que informarem o mercado, provocam variações de retornos. Encerra-se a tese com uma análise das recomendações dos analistas. Apura-se a distribuição percentual das recomendações, assim como os efeitos sobre os preços de recomendações de compra (buy) e de venda(sell). O desempenho das recomendações de consenso e o efeito das revisões de recomendações para cima (upgrade) e para baixo (downgrade) são exemplos de outros pontos analisados.