Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990-2010 averages) and future (2040-2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.

Late Pleistocene American black bears (Ursus americanus) often overlap in size with Pleistocene brown bears (U. arctos), occasionally making them difficult to diagnose. Large U. americanus have previously been distinguished from U. arctos by the length of the upper second molar (M2). However, the teeth of fossil U. americanus sometimes overlap size with U. arctos. As such, there is need for a more accurate tool to distinguish the two species. Here, 2D geometric morphometrics is applied to the occlusal surface of the M2 to further assess the utility of this tooth for distinguishing U. americanus and U. arctos specimens. When combined with an Ecological Niche Model of U. americanus and U. arctos in North America from the Last Glacial Maximum, this morphometric technique can be applied to key regions. A case of two Pleistocene specimens previously identified as U. arctos from eastern North America exemplifies the utility of this combination.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T12:34:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The White-Nose syndrome is an emergent infectious disease that had already killed almost six millions North American bats and spread more than two thousand kilometers. Even so, studies about their possible impacts upon hosts are still lacking, principally upon all the susceptible North American bats. We predicted the consequences of the WNS spread in the North American hosts by generating an environmental suitability map for the disease, and then, we overlaid with the extension of occurrence of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities will somehow negatively affect bat’s local populations, and we reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population reduction. 16% of the North American hibernating bat fauna were considered threatened under this WNS potential spread. We believe our results could contribute with governments conservation actions. / (Sem resumo)

La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es troba entre les espècies més invasores: originària d'Amèrica del Sud, actualment ha envaït nombroses àrees arreu del món. Aquesta tesi doctoral intenta fer una primera anàlisi integrada i multiescalar de la distribució de la formiga argentina mitjançant l'ús de models de nínxol ecològic. D'acord amb els resultats obtinguts, es preveu que la formiga argentina assoleixi una distribució més àmplia que l'actual. Les prediccions obtingudes a partir dels models concorden amb la distribució actualment coneguda i, a més, indiquen àrees a prop de la costa i dels rius principals com a altament favorables per a l'espècie. Aquests resultats corroboren la idea que la formiga argentina no es troba actualment en equilibri amb el medi. D'altra banda, amb el canvi climàtic, s'espera que la distribució de la formiga argentina s'estengui cap a latituds més elevades en ambdós hemisferis, i sofreixi una retracció en els tròpics a escales globals. / Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. This PhD thesis attempts to take the first step towards an integrated and multi-scalar analysis of the Argentine ant distribution using ecological niche models. According to our results, the Argentine ant is expected to occupy a broader distribution in its worldwide invaded ranges than is currently appreciated. Model predictions are in concordance with the currently known occurrence of the species, and indicate areas near the coast and following the main rivers as highly suitable for the species. These results give additional support to the idea that the Argentine ant is not currently in equilibrium with its environment. According to global climate change scenarios, the Argentine ant is expected to expand to higher northern and southern latitudes, and retract in the tropics at global spatial scales.

L'ulcère de Buruli est une maladie émergente tropicale négligée. Il provoque une défiguration et une incapacité permanente pour les victimes. L'agent causal est Mycobacterium ulcerans. Cependant, le réservoir environnemental et le mode de transmission de cette bactérie ne sont pas connus. Les tentatives visant à gérer la maladie ont été freinées par le manque de connaissances concernant le mode de transmission ainsi que le réservoir environnemental de M. ulcerans. Certains écosystèmes et habitats ont été associés au risque de contracter cette mycobactérie, notamment les milieux aquatiques d'eau douce stagnants et perturbés par les activités humaines des régions tropicales. S'il n'existe pas de vecteur bien identifié, des insectes aquatiques Hémiptères sont fortement suspectés d'intervenir dans la vectorisation de cet agent infectieux à l'humain. Une compréhension complète de la distribution et du mode de transmission de la bactérie aiderait ainsi à la gestion de la maladie. Dans cette thèse, nous utilisons les outils issus de la modélisation de la niche écologique pour décrire la distribution de M. ulcerans. Suite à la construction d'un modèle au Cameroun, en Afrique Centrale, et testé avec une seconde base de données en Guyane Française (Amérique du Sud), nous trouvons que l'agent pathogène montre des variations saisonnières notables dans la répartition de nos sites d'étude, au Cameroun. Pendant la saison humide, M. ulcerans est plus fréquente dans les grands bassins versants et en absence de marécages, tandis que durant la saison sèche, la bactérie est plus présente dans les petits bassins versants où peuvent être présents dans les zones marécageuses. Notre étude a permis de générer des cartes de répartition de l'agent pathogène dans la région d'étude, qui pourront être utilisées dans des études ultérieures contribuant à mieux gérer le risque infectieux pour cette maladie. De plus, nous avons développé une modélisation des niches écologiques des insectes aquatiques soupçonnés d'être des vecteurs de l'agent pathogène. Basé sur un protocole d'échantillonnage d'insectes aquatiques qui couvre l'ensemble du Cameroun, nous avons construit un modèle suivant la méthode de l'entropie maximale. Ceci nous a permis d'interpoler notre modèle sur toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Nous avons ensuite testé une corrélation entre la répartition prévue des insectes potentiellement vecteurs, et la prévalence de l'ulcère de Buruli. Nous mettons en évidence une corrélation positive significative entre la répartition des insectes et la répartition de la maladie, et trouvons que cette corrélation varie significativement dans l'espace et le temps. Ceci est cohérent avec la possibilité d'une transmission multi-hôte pour cet agent pathogène.Enfin, en collaboration avec d'autres auteurs, nous avons pu explorer différents facteurs influençant la distribution de M. ulcerans, tels que les réseaux et la structure de la communauté biotique, ou encore l'impact de l'occupation du sol sur la distribution de l'ulcère de Buruli dans notre région d'étude d'Akonolinga au Cameroun. Et enfin nous avons testé le changement de distribution de la maladie à une plus grande échelle, entre le Bénin et le Nigeria. Cette thèse contribue à une meilleure compréhension de la distribution de Mycobacterium ulcerans et de l'ulcère de Buruli, fournissant des éléments de preuve d'une transmission multi-hôtes de la mycobactérie, ainsi que les premières cartes de répartition de l'agent pathogène pour la région d'Akonolinga au Cameroun. / The Buruli ulcer is an emerging environmentally acquired infectious neglected tropical disease. It causes permanent disability and disfigurement in victims. The causative agent is Mycobacterium ulcerans; however the environmental reservoir and mode of transmission of this bacterium are not known. Attempts to manage the disease have been hampered by lack of knowledge of the mode of transmission and the environmental reservoir of M. ulcerans. Certain environments have been associated with the disease, notably disturbed aquatic environments composed of small bodies of stagnant water. There is no known vector, though aquatic insects have been implicated as possible vectors. A full understanding of the distribution and mode of transmission of the bacterium would help in management of the disease.In this thesis, we use the tools developed in ecological niche modelling to describe the distribution of M. ulcerans. Following the construction of a model in Cameroon, Central Africa, and tested against a second database in French Guiana (South America), the pathogen is found to have notable seasonal changes in its distribution in our study sites in Cameroon. In the wet season, M. ulcerans is more common in large watersheds, while in the dry season the bacterium is more common in small watersheds. This enabled the generation of hazard maps of the pathogen distribution in the study region, which will be used in future studies and management of the disease. Following this we undertook ecological niche modelling to describe the distribution of the aquatic insects suspected to be vectors of M. ulcerans. Based on a sampling protocol that spanned the country of Cameroon, we undertake maximum entropy modelling, which enabled us to interpolate our model across all of West Africa. With these maps we explore the correlation between the predicted distribution of the insects to the prevalence of the Buruli ulcer. We find a significant positive correlation between the distribution of the insects and the distribution of the disease, and find that this correlation undergoes significant changes in space and time, consistent with the model of multi-vectorial transmission of the disease.Finally, in collaboration with other authors, we have assisted in exploring how the distribution of M. ulcerans changes according to community structure networks, how the distribution of the Buruli ulcer disease changes in our study region of Akonolinga, Cameroon, and how the distribution of the disease changes at a larger scale, between Benin and Nigeria. This thesis contributes to our understanding of the distribution and drivers of Mycobacterium ulcerans and the Buruli ulcer, providing evidence of multi-vectorial transmission of the disease, and the first hazard maps of the pathogen for Akonolinga, Cameroon.