A redução da pobreza é um problema amplamente discutido no mundo. Por meio do crescimento econômico, os países podem melhorar seu padrão de vida e alcançar maiores níveis de desenvolvimento. Com a abertura promovida no contexto da globalização, houve aumento no fluxo de bens e capitais externos para os países em desenvolvimento, favorecendo seu crescimento econômico. Este trabalho buscou identificar relações de causalidade entre fluxos externos, crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico. Foram utilizados indicadores trimestrais e anuais sugeridos na revisão teórica. Os dados trimestrais foram utilizados para construir um modelo de auto-regressão vetorial (VAR), que verificou relações de causalidade entre as variáveis. Os dados anuais foram utilizados para a análise de regressão. Os resultados sugerem que o crescimento econômico apresenta relações de causalidade com investimento interno, poupança, abertura econômica e produtividade. A produtividade, por sua vez, é influenciada pelo capital humano, investimento estrangeiro direto e progresso tecnológico. O desenvolvimento econômico apresentou relações de causalidade com educação e renda (aumento e distribuição de renda). / The poverty reduction is widely discussed around the world. Through the economic growth, the countries can improve their pattern of life and reach high levels of development. The commercial overture promoted by globalization increased the international flows of capital and goods into developing countries and promoted economic growth. This study, tried to identify causality relation among international flows, development and economic growth. Quarterly and annual indicators were used as suggested in the theorist revision. The quarterly data were used to built a vector auto regression model (VAR) to verify causality relation among the variables. The annual data were used to the regression analysis. The results suggest that the economic growth has causality relations with internal investment, savings, economic opening and productivity. The productivity is influenced by human capital, external direct investment and technological progress. The development has causality relations with education and income (increase and distribution).

Orientador: Anselmo Luís dos Santos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T15:59:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Souen_JacquelineAslan_M.pdf: 2801808 bytes, checksum: b9606b4cd4ea03f94e37f3e24376768b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A partir de uma retrospectiva histórica da trajetória do salário mínimo no Brasil, observamos que, com exceção do período compreendido entre 1951 e início da década de 1960 - pré-golpe de 64 -, ocorreram recorrentes perdas do seu poder aquisitivo. Na fase recente, ainda que o movimento favorável do piso mínimo tenha dado o primeiro sinal já em 1993 e efetivamente iniciado em 1995, com a consolidação do Plano Real e a estabilização da moeda, foi no pós 2003 que se inaugurou uma fase particularmente distinta. A subida ao poder de um governo com estreita ligação junto ao movimento sindical e mais aberto ao diálogo e às reivindicações das centrais sindicais, a inflação relativamente controlada e a reativação da economia, em 2004, foram condições essenciais para a mudança na forma de conduzir a questão. No início do novo governo ainda era forte o discurso contrário aos mecanismos de regulação e proteção do trabalho, em especial do salário mínimo. Apontavam-se os impactos indesejados sobre as contas públicas, além de possíveis efeitos inflacionários, e crescimento do desemprego e informalidade. Contudo, havia um crescente debate de oposição a esse discurso, o qual indicava o fraco desempenho econômico como um dos principais obstáculos a uma efetiva política de recuperação do poder de compra do mínimo. Argumentava-se a necessidade de criar condições para a retomada do crescimento da economia, emprego e renda, modificando a estratégia de condução da política macroeconômica, abrindo caminho para uma maior formalização do mercado de trabalho, aumento da massa salarial, e elevação da arrecadação previdenciária e das contribuições sociais, reduzindo, assim, os possíveis constrangimentos de uma política consistente de recuperação do salário mínimo. Tal interpretação foi reforçada pelas principais Centrais Sindicais, as quais se organizaram num movimento unitário em 2004, reivindicando a urgência de um critério permanente de valorização do piso nacional. O objetivo do presente trabalho é fazer uma análise da evolução da política de valorização do salário mínimo neste contexto da retomada da atividade econômica, no governo Lula, bem como avaliar seus impactos para uma grande maioria de trabalhadores, sobretudo aqueles da base da pirâmide social, com rendimentos muito próximos do piso mínimo / Abstract: From a historical trajectory of the minimum wage in Brazil, it is observed that, except for the period between 1951 and the early 1960s - before the 64 coup d'état - recurring losses of the purchasing power occurred. Recently, although the movement in favor of the minimum wage gave its first sign back in 1993 - and actually started in 1995, with the consolidation of the Real Plan and the stabilization of the currency - it was after 2003 that a particularly distinct period was inaugurated. The rise to power of a government closely linked to the union movement, and more open to dialogue and the demands of the unions, the relatively controlled inflation and the reactivation of the economy, in 2004, were essential conditions for the change on the way of leading the issue. At the beginning of the new government the speech contrary to the mechanisms of regulation and protection of labor was still strong, particularly concerning the minimum wage. The undesired impacts on public accounts were pointed out, as well as possible inflationary effects and increasing unemployment and informality. However, there was a growing debate in opposition to this discourse, which indicated the poor economic performance as one of the main obstacles to an effective recovery policy of the minimum wage purchasing power. They argued the need of creating conditions for the resumption of economic, employment and income growth, by changing the strategy of macroeconomic policy, clearing the way for a greater formalization of the labor market, increased wages, and raising funds for the pension system and social contributions, thus reducing the possible constraints of a consistent minimum wage recovery policy. Such interpretation was reinforced by the major Central Trade Unions, which organized a unitary movement in 2004, claiming the urgency of a permanent recovery criterion of the national wage floor. The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution of the policy of valuing the minimum wage in this context of renewed economic activity, under Lula government, and assess its impacts on a large majority of workers, especially those from the base of the social pyramid, with incomes very close to the minimum wage / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Orientador: Maria Ester Soares Dal Poz / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T09:42:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rocha_LeonardoAndrade_D.pdf: 2305454 bytes, checksum: 1e93d9727c225cef42402e8a5886c1ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Nas últimas décadas vários estudos têm enfatizado a importância do capital humano para o desenvolvimento das economias. Entretanto, muitos destes estudos não têm incorporado a idéia de que os diferentes estágios de desenvolvimento importam para que se tenha uma visão acurada do papel do capital humano em tal desenvolvimento. Neste sentido, distintos graus de proximidade com a fronteira condicionam os resultados da política econômica, de forma que os aspectos globais afetam o desempenho de cada economia. Para isto, esta investigação analisou os impactos da política de educação na taxa de progresso tecnológico e no crescimento dos países, conforme o grau de proximidade com a fronteira. As economias mais atrasadas demandam por recursos mais estruturais em relação aos investimentos estratégicos em Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (C,T&I). Nesta mesma direção, outros estudos, como Vandenbussche, Aghion e Meghir (2006) e Aghion, Boustan, Hoxby, e Vandenbussche (2009), chegaram a conclusões similares, sinalizando a atualidade do tema. Para esta finalidade, construiu-se um modelo de crescimento schumpeteriano incorporando à produtividade, duas fontes de melhorias adotadas pelas firmas: os componentes de imitação e inovação. O estoque de mão de obra qualificada é alocado nas atividades intensivas de P&D inovadora das firmas. Já o estoque de mão de obra não-qualificada é alocado nos departamentos de implementação de técnicas gerenciais e planejamento já existentes, ou seja, estratégias adaptadas da fronteira. Cada empresário monopolista busca maximizar sua utilidade que é definida pelo consumo esperado menos os custos de contratação da força de trabalho qualificada e não-qualificada. Nas condições de otimização, são construídas duas funções de demanda por cada fator. A demanda do empresário monopolista em cada setor de insumos intermediários é dividida na contratação de mão de obra qualificada e não-qualificada. A função de demanda por fator não-qualificado depende positivamente da distância tecnológica em relação à fronteira. Ou seja, para as economias mais afastadas o trade-off entre C,T&I e os investimentos na criação de oportunidades tecnológicas, vai se tornando mais expressivo à medida em que a distância for aumentando. Para os setores mais avançados, a demanda por mão de obra qualificada pode oferecer um rápido crescimento em relação aos setores mais atrasados. Para mensurar o estoque de qualificação e não-qualificação, foram utilizados os anos de escolaridade para cada nível de ensino: fator não-qualificado - anos de escolaridade média do ensino primário e secundário e; fator qualificado - anos de escolaridade média do ensino superior ou terciário. Este banco de dados é fornecido por Barro e Lee (2000) e é construído considerando uma defasagem de cinco anos entre 1960-2000. No modelo empírico construiu-se uma regressão do ln(PTF), ln(PIB/trabalhador) e das taxas de crescimento do PIB/trabalhador com função dos anos de escolaridade defasados (t-1) e da interação da escolaridade com o coeficiente de distância tecnológica defasado (t-1). As regressões foram estimadas com dados em painel adotando vários métodos computacionais de estimação. As primeiras estimativas revelaram que os anos de escolaridade da educação primária e secundária contribuem para a acumulação do PIB por trabalhador e da PTF nas economias mais afastadas da fronteira tecnológica. Já os anos de escolaridade do ensino superior têm um efeito aumentador do PIB por trabalhador e da PTF nas economias mais próximas da fronteira. Os resultados da tese permitem, então, concluir que o subdesenvolvimento - pelo menos no que se refere à sua face da formação de recursos humanos - apresenta um caráter perverso: aqueles que não estão próximos à fronteira necessitam de esforços ainda maiores para dela se aproximarem / Abstract: In recent years several studies have emphasized the importance of human capital for economic development. However, many of these studies have not incorporated the different stages of development to which the economies are found. In this sense, different degrees of proximity to the technological frontier induce the results of economic policy, so that the global aspects affecting the performance of economies. For this, our research examined the impacts of education policy on the rate of technological progress and the economic growth of countries according to the degree of proximity to the frontier. The most backward economies are demanding more on structural investments in relation to strategic investments in ST&I. In the same direction, other studies such as Vandenbussche, Aghion and Megh (2006) and Aghion, Boustan, Hoxby, and Vandenbussche (2009), reached similar conclusions, indicating the relevance of this research. For this, we constructed a Schumpeterian growth model incorporating on productivity, two sources of improvements adopted by firms: the components of imitation and innovation. The stock of skilled labor is allocated in the innovation activities by firms. Unlike, the stock of labor is unskilled allocated to departments for implementation of management standards and planning, ie, imitation strategies by firms. Each monopolist entrepreneur seeks to maximize its utility function that is defined by expected consumption less costs of hiring skilled labor force and unskilled. Under conditions of maximization are built two demand functions for each factor. The demand of the monopolist entrepreneur in each sector of intermediate inputs is divided in hiring skilled labor and unskilled. The demand function for factor unskilled depends positively on the distance to frontier , ie, to the backward economies, the trade-off between ST & I and investments on technological opportunities (basic infrastructure), becomes the more significant as the distance increases. For the most advanced sectors, the demand for skilled labor can offer a enhanced-growth in relation to the most backward sectors. To measure the stock of skilled and unskilled, were used average years of schooling within each education level: unskilled labor - average years of schooling in primary and secondary level; skilled labor - the average years of schooling in higher education or tertiary level. This database is provided by Barro and Lee (2000) and is built considering the five years between 1960-2000. The estimated model consisted of the regression of ln(TFP), ln(GDP per worker) and the growth rates of GDP per worker with the years of schooling lagged (t-1) and the interaction between schooling and the coefficient of technological gap lagged (t-1). The regressions were estimated with panel data using various computational methods of estimation. Early estimates show that years of schooling of the primary and secondary education contribute to the accumulation of GDP per worker and TFP when the economy is further away from the technological frontier. The estimated parameters showed statistical significance and expected signs with the hypothesis of the investigation. Since the schooling years of higher education (tertiary) have an increased effect of GDP per worker and TFP when the economy approaches the frontier / Doutorado / Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente / Doutor em Desenvolvimento Economico

Orientador: Paulo Eduardo de Andrade Baltar / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T17:57:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Araujo_JulianaBacelarde_M.pdf: 1976712 bytes, checksum: f8020f89c246d888d4aa4b42ed102c00 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Nos anos 2000, o Brasil apresentou sinais de recuperação econômica, com geração de empregos e crescimento da renda nacional. A partir de 2004, a expansão do crédito e do consumo das famílias, o aumento das exportações, decorrente do movimento favorável do crescimento internacional (até a crise financeira de 2008/09), e a reativação do investimento produtivo e na infraestrutura econômica e social permitiram que o País mantivesse um ritmo sustentado de crescimento do PIB. Nesse contexto de retomada do crescimento, em que o mercado interno registrou um peso relativamente maior do que o do mercado externo, observou-se a reativação do dinamismo da economia das metrópoles, que apresentam estruturas produtivas e ocupacionais de maior complexidade e diversidade, além de terem suportado um enorme passivo socioeconômico, nos anos de 1990, expresso, em grande medida, por elevadas taxas de desemprego aberto. A forte redução do desemprego, a ampliação da geração de empregos, sobretudo dos formais, o crescimento médio da renda do trabalho e seu consequente efeito sobre a redução das desigualdades de renda entre os espaços metropolitanos e não metropolitanos constituem as principais características do mercado de trabalho brasileiro no período de 2004-2008. Contudo, ainda é cedo para falar-se em reestruturação do mercado de trabalho nacional. É preciso avançar nesse cenário, nos próximos anos. Por ora, estão claras as limitações da análise, enfocando apenas as questões do emprego e da renda, para o entendimento geral da problemática metropolitana, sem, todavia, menosprezar a importância da melhoria recente dos aspectos do mercado de trabalho, aqui analisados / Abstract: In the 2000's, Brazil showed signs of economic recovery with job creation and growth of national income. Since 2004, the expansion of credit, family consumption, and exports due to favorable international growth (until the financial crisis of 2008/09), as well as the recovery on productive investments allowed the country to maintain a steady pace of GDP growth. In this context, with a bigger importance of the domestic market, there was also a recovery on the metropolitan regions, which exhibit productive and occupational structures of higher complexity and diversity, besides having supported a huge socioeconomic liability in the 1990's, due to high unemployment rates. The decline in unemployment, the expansion of job creation, especially on formal labor, the growth of labor income and its subsequent effect on the reduction of income inequalities between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are the main characteristics of the Brazilian labor market evolution in the 2004-2008 period. However, it is still too early to speak of a restructured the national labor market. It's imperative to advance in this way for the coming years. For now, the limitations of the analysis are clear; especially by focusing only on issues of employment and income while understanding the metropolitan question, but without underestimating the importance of the recent improvement in this matter / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T17:41:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo7344_1.pdf: 869852 bytes, checksum: 2118d98125244ab0d4f8a6a11f480308 (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Henrique de Santana, Luís; Menezes Campello de Souza, Fernando. Growth models incorporating technology and a new population dynamics equation. 2006. Dissertação (Mestrado). Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, 2006.

The Ireland´s recovery from the crisis that broke in the Irish economy was fast comparing to other eurozone nations so-called PIIGS. Therefore, the thesis identify sources and turning points that generate the inclusive growth of the Irish economy. Economic growth comes from the accumulation of labour and capital inputs combined with improvements in the productivity of labour associated with technological progress. There are clear signals that all these factors contribute to the economy growth in Ireland. Ireland benefits from large inflows of foreign direct investment that helps to spread technological progress, know-how into the country. This has resulted in export of hi-tech goods and services. Labour force in Ireland are skilled individuals. In addition, both, labour force and labour market in Ireland are highly adaptable to change. Above mentioned drivers and others are fundamental to economic growth. Overall, Ireland´s economy is reasonably well established and it has made significant progress in many areas that contrast with southern economies in PIIGS group.

This thesis examines three different aspects of monetary policy in a varying sample of developing countries, with some Islamic banks. The first essay estimates a variety of interest rate rules for the conduct of monetary policy for Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey, in both high and low inflation conditions. The findings are that the reaction of monetary policy to both inflation and output gaps differs between the high and low inflation regimes and that the exchange rate channel is important only in the low inflation regime. The second essay examines the bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Malaysia, a country with a dual banking system, with both Islamic and conventional banks. The results show that Islamic credit is less responsive to interest rates shocks than is conventional credit, in both high and low growth conditions. In contrast, the relative importance of Islamic credit shocks in driving output and inflation is greater under low -inflation conditions and higher Islamic credit leads to higher growth and lower inflation in such conditions. The third essay re-examines the question of causality between credit and GDP between two sets of countries one set without Islamic banks and the other set with dual banking systems, including some Islamic banks. The results suggest long-run causality from credit growth to GDP in countries with only Islamic banks.

We revisit the influential economic growth model by Lucas (1988) ["On the mechanics of economic development." Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1):3-42], assuming that households optimally allocate consumption and education over the life-cycle given an exogenous interest rate and exogenous wages. We show that in such a partial equilibrium setting, the original two-state (physical capital and human capital) optimization problem can be decomposed into two single-state optimal control models. This transformation allows us to rigorously prove the existence of a singular control describing the allocation of education time along a balanced growth path. We derive a constructive condition for a singular control to exist and show that under this condition infinitely many singular controls are optimal in the individual household problem. In contrast to the original general equilibrium framework in which an agent always chooses part-time education and part-time work, in our framework such an agent might find it optimal to allocate her whole available time to education at the beginning of her life and to focus on labor supply only when she is older. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Les dépenses militaires constituent un phénomène économique important puisque 1630 milliards de dollars sont affectés au secteur de la défense en 2010 au niveau mondial. Les économistes se sont alors intéressés aux conséquences économiques de telles dépenses. Pourtant depuis près de 40 ans, force est de constater qu'aucun consensus n'émerge de cette littérature. Une telle absence se traduit par des difficultés pour formuler des conclusions de politique économique adaptée. L'objet de cette thèse est alors de déterminer quelles pourraient être les causes de la diversité des résultats de la littérature passée. Nous proposons alors deux pistes expliquant ce phénomène: d'une part une diversité de modélisations ayant des hypothèses diamétralement opposées quant à l'impact de la défense sur la croissance et d'autre part l'existence de non-linéarité, de nature à modifier cet impact pour un même modèle.La thèse se compose alors de quatre chapitres. Dans le chapitre un, nous proposons une revue de littérature permettant de mettre en exergue les régularités, en termes de résultats, associées à chaque modèle théorique. Le chapitre deux constitue alors une vérification empirique, pour un échantillon donné de pays de l'OCDE, de la contingence des conclusions quant à l'utilisation de différentes modélisations. Notre stratégie empirique permet de considérer les modèles comme complémentaires plutôt qu'en concurrence. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous étudions les phénomènes de non-linéarité au travers d'une démarche et d'une méthode empirique originales. Nous montrons que la régression non-linéaire est préférable à la régression linéaire et qu'elle conduit à caractériser un effet asymétrique de la défense sur la croissance. Le dernier chapitre a pour but d'étudier plus précisément le cas de la France afin de confirmer, en termes de politique économique, la stratégie développée dans les chapitres précédents. / Military spending constitutes an important economic phenomenon because in 2010, 1630b dollar are affected to the defense sector all around the world. Economists are interested in the economic consequences of such spending. However, since 40 years, one has to note that there is no consensus from this literature. This absence leads to difficulties to formulate relevant economic policy conclusions. The aim of this thesis is to determine what are the causes of the diversity of results in the past literature. Two ways are then considered: on the one hand, a diversity of models with hypothesis diametrically opposed concerning the impact of the defense sector on economic growth and on the other hand, non-linear behavior which may modify this impact for a same model.This dissertation contains four chapters. In the first one, we detail a literature review in order to draw the principal regularities in terms of results for each theoretical model. The chapter two constitutes an empirical verification of the contingency of results from different models, for a sample of OECD countries. Our empirical strategy leads to consider the complementary rather than the competition between models. In the third chapter, we examine the non-linear phenomenon with original steps and empirical method. We show that non-linear regression outperforms linear regression and characterizes asymmetric effects of the military spending on growth. The last chapter aims to analyze the case of France in order to confirm the usefulness of the strategy developed in past chapters for raising economic policy recommendations.

In all types of debates - regardless of topic - research findings, investigations, evaluations and media reports regarding aid will find one prominent question, namely whether there is any clear connection between aid and economic growth in countries that have received high amounts of foreign aid. One argument has been that the connection between a high amount of foreign aid and economic growth is none existing. However, this assumption has been questioned by reports that claims the opposite: that aid, with the right conditions, could have a positive effect on a country’s economic growth. This study makes an effort to examining the effects of foreign aid in Bolivia by looking at the country’s development process in terms of economic growth. Questions like - who were the main donors that contributed with foreign aid in Bolivia? In what way were this foreign aid applied? How do development agencies asses the macro economic impact of aid? - will be discussed and answered throughout the thesis. The findings of the study demonstrate the complexity of measuring development within a certain case. It depends on what one chose to include in the term as well as which area is being investigated. Furthermore, the results seems to vary between the different programs evaluated that has been shaped and implemented by foreign donors. However, drawing from the findings presented in this study, the result indicates that foreign aid in general has had a positive effect on Bolivia’s economic growth.