La croissance économique est un indicateur majeur pour évaluer la capacité d'un pays à améliorer le niveau de bien-être de sa population. La littérature économique associe la croissance à une progression vigoureuse et sur une longue période de la production totale, ou de celle par tête. Le rythme de la croissance correspond au taux de croissance de la production et du revenu sur le long terme. Les économistes de la révolution industrielle ont identifié dans l'accumulation du capital, le moteur de ce mouvement. L'investissement, élément particulier de la demande, puisqu'il permet d'augmenter le stock de capital, est également susceptible d'augmenter les capacités de production. La réalisation de la croissance est un objectif essentiel de la politique économique. Dans le modèle de Ramsey, la croissance repose essentiellement sur l'accumulation du capital matériel. Il est donc fondamental d'étudier les facteurs qui favorisent cette accumulation à long-terme, ou qui au contraire viennent la freiner. Parmi ces facteurs se trouvent les déterminants de l'épargne. / The economic growth is a major indicator which estimates a country's capacity to improve its population well-being level. The economic literature associates economic growth with an increase of either a total or per capita supported production on the long time. The growth rhythm corresponds to the production rate and the income growth rate on the long term. The economists of the industrial revolution has identified in the capital accumulation, the dynamic of that movement. Investment is a particular element of the demand, since it allows to increase the capital stock, and thus to increase the production capacities. Growth realization is an essential aim of the economic policy. ln Ramsey's model the growth bases essentially on the physical capital accumulation. So it is fundamental to study the factors which favor this accumulation in the long term or slow it down on the contrary. Among these factors are the determiners of savings.

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / E. Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation explores the relationships between three groups of variables in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), from 1989 to 2003. The first group consists of output level and output growth as measured by gross domestic product index (GDPI) and gross domestic product growth (GDPG). The second group consists of two categories of institutional development (INST), and the third group of variables is structural policy reforms (SPR), often known as liberalization policies. This dissertation’s theoretical and empirical framework explicitly account for the endogeneity between output performance variables, the measures of institutional development and SPR. Several empirical specification models of the theoretical simultaneous system of three equations are estimated. In the first group of specification models the dependent endogenous variables are GDPG, SPR and INST, while in the second group the dependant endogenous variables are GDPI, SPR and INST. Moreover, two datasets are used. The first dataset has data from 1989 to 2003, thus covering the whole transition period, while the second dataset is a subset of the first one, containing data for the recovery stage of transition only. The empirical methods used in this dissertation include panel data analysis, principal component analysis, two stages least squares approach and three stage least squares approach in the presence of a SUR modeling procedure. With respect to the output performance equation, the findings of this research indicate that institutional reform (INSTREF), and property rights and contract enforcement institutions (PCINST and ROLINST) are very important determinants of output levels when the whole transition period dataset is used, and very important determinants of both the output levels and output growth rates when the recovery stage dataset is used. While the effect of current SPR is ambiguous, the effect of lagged SPR on output and output growth is positive. Moreover, SPR continue to affect output performance via their indirect effect on institutional development. With respect to the institutional reforms, and property rights and contract enforcement institutions, two sets of determinants were found to be important. On the side of the demand factors, SPR, and especially lagged SPR is found to be an important determinant of both institutional reforms and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. On the side of supply factors, macroeconomic stabilization, a measure of the state’s capacity to implement institutional reform, resulted very important in explaining the variation in institutional reform and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. Political reform, in terms of a shift from the autarkic political regime to a democratic political regime, is found to positively affect institutional development in the recovery stage. With respect to the structural policy reforms’ equations, this dissertation’s main finding is that political reform positively affects SPR in both datasets. Moreover, lagged SPR is found to positively affect SPR, which is an indication of transition governments’ maintained commitment to a package of SPR-s.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lloyd B. Thomas Jr / Dennis L. Weisman / This dissertation has focused primarily on the relationship between aggregate private output and a measure of the public fixed capital stock for the U.S. economy using two different approaches for the years 1947-2005. The study starts with a brief survey of the existing literature on the relationship between private output and public capital and continues with an analysis of data on some macroeconomic variables related to private output and public capital. It employs a production function approach to provide empirical estimates and analyze its econometric problems, and continues with a vector autoregression (VAR) model. It uses two criteria, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwartz Bayesian Criterion, to compare the performance of the two models tested. There are several differences between this study and the existing literature. The most important difference is that each of the other studies uses only a single approach to analyze the relationship between the public capital stock and private economic growth while this study uses two different methodologies to analyze the same relationship and tests the two models using the same aggregate macroeconomic annual data on the U.S. economy from 1947 to 2005. This study represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the elasticities of private output with respect to the private capital stock, private labor stock, public nonmilitary capital stock, and public core infrastructure capital stock by employing two different approaches so that the comparison of the elasticities resulting from the two different approaches can be most meaningful. Moreover, this study also represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the marginal products of the above four inputs. Second, the studies that employ a production function approach are ad hoc and so is the production function approach of this study, but the production function approach section of this study is the only one having an explicit capital evolution equation for both the private and the public capital stock. All of the other studies using annual data use aggregate macroeconomic data on related variables for less than thirty years while this study employs aggregate data from 1947 to 2005 (fifty nine years). Lastly, the other production function studies are incomplete in the sense that they either do not attempt to deal with some major econometric problems such as a common trend (resulting in a spurious correlation) and the direction of the causation or when they do acknowledge major econometric problems, they do not do anything to correct them. This study, on the other hand, will try to detect major econometric problems. Once the problem is detected, the study will employ measures to deal with the problem. Major findings of this study are as follows. First, the causation runs from the public fixed capital stock to private output rather than in the other direction. Second, most of the studies in the existing literature report a positive impact of the private fixed capital stock on private output that is too small to be credible, whereas they report a positive impact of the public fixed capital stock on private output that is too large to be credible. However, the estimates of this study suggest not only a positive impact of the public capital stock on private output that seems credible but also a positive and very large impact of the private capital stock on private output. Third, the results of several joint hypothesis tests conducted show that there is enough sample evidence to claim that not only that the private sector operates under constant returns to scale in all inputs, private and public, for the years 1947-2005 but also that the private fixed capital stock is more important to the aggregate private production process than either of the two measures of the public fixed capital stock.

[pt] Atualmente pode ser observado um cenário onde a expectativa é de uma enorme pressão sobre a demanda energética futura, as alarmantes consequências das emissões de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera e a realização do abastecimento energético seguro e com certo grau de previsibilidade. Assim torna-se essencial o desenvolvimento de métodos sustentáveis de geração e consumo energético. Baseado neste contexto, o presente estudo visa aprofundar o entendimento da relação entre o consumo de energia renovável e o crescimento econômico para um painel de doze países em desenvolvimento entre o os anos de 2003-2013. O teste de raiz unitária de Levin, Li e Chu bem como o modelo de dados em painel foi utilizado para inferir a relação causal entre as variáveis. O resultado revelou uma relação causal entre o PIB real, consumo de energias renováveis e formação bruta de capital fixo, como consequência dos seus respectivos coeficientes positivos e estatisticamente significativos. Entretanto, não pode ser verificado uma relação causal entre crescimento econômico e a força de trabalho. / [en] Nowadays, a scenario can be observed where the expectation is that there will be enormous pressure on future energy demand, the alarming consequences of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere and the realization of a secure supply of energy with a certain degree of predictability. Thus, the development of sustainable energy generation and consumption methods is essential. Based on this context, this study aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twelve developing countries between the years 2003-2013. The Levin, Li and Chu unit root test as well as the panel data model were used to infer the causal relationship between the variables. The result revealed a causal relationship between real GDP, renewable energy consumption and gross fixed capital formation, as a consequence of their respective positive and statistically significant coefficients. However, a causal relationship between economic growth and the labor force can not be verified.

Les infrastructures de transport sont des biens publics dont l'importance a été démontrée dans la littérature économique depuis les travaux fondateurs des nouvelles théories de la croissance endogène, de la nouvelle économie géographique, ainsi que les études empiriques menées dans plusieurs pays. Notre travail de recherche s'intéresse aux infrastructures de transport dans les pays en développement (PED) avec une application au cas du Maroc.La thèse se présente en deux parties, la première met en évidence le rôle des infrastructures de transport dans l'économie à travers une revue de la littérature théorique et empirique ainsi que la présentation des différentes approches économétriques de modélisation du capital public. Nous étudions le cas du Maroc à travers une étude économétrique par un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur permettant d'analyser les relations dynamiques à long terme entre capital public et PIB ainsi que les effets de causalité. Puis, nous démontrons avec un modèle autorégressif l'impact des investissements autoroutiers sur le PIB/hab et l'amélioration de l'accessibilité.La deuxième partie de la thèse s'intéresse aux effets des infrastructures de transport sur la croissance des 16 régions marocaines et les disparités entre ces régions sous l'effet du capital public routier et autoroutier. Nous nous basons dans notre recherche, sur les travaux de Charlot (1999) et Charlot et Schmitt (2002) sur les régions françaises, sur les travaux de Marquez, Ramajo et Hewings (2011) s'intéressant au rôle du capital public sur la croissance régionale des provinces espagnoles, ainsi que sur de l'étude de Malyadi (2011) pour le cas du Maroc. Du point de vue théorique, notre approche se situe au croisement des théories de la croissance endogène et de la nouvelle économie géographique.La progression de la thèse se fait dans un ordre décroissant en termes d'espace étudié, partant du cadre national au cadre régional en terminant par un cas local de l'industrie automobile au Maroc pour explorer les liens entre infrastructure de transport et industrialisation régionale / Transport infrastructures are public goods. Their importance is demonstrated in the literature since the seminal works of the endogenous growth theory, new economic geography, as well as empirical studies conducted in several countries. Our research focuses on the transport infrastructure in developing countries with an application to the case of Morocco. This thesis is divided in two parts. The first one highlights the role of transport infrastructure in the economy through a review of theoretical and empirical literature and the presentation of different econometric modeling approaches. Then, we study the case of Morocco by using econometric approach of vector error correction model to analyze the long-term dynamic relationships between GDP, public capital and the causality effects. Then, we demonstrate with an autoregressive model the impact of highway investments on GDP / capita and improving accessibility. The second part of our research focuses on the effects of transport infrastructure on the economic growth of 16 Moroccan regions, and the differences between these regions as a result of road and highway public capital allocation. We follow in our research Charlot (1999), Charlot and Schmitt (2002) on French regions, and Marquez, Ramajo and Hewings (2011) applied on Spanish provinces. After, we study the evolution of urban primacy in Morocco by focusing our analysis to the structural role of transport infrastructure. We use gravity models to explore spatial interactions between Moroccan regions. Finally, we are interested in the region of Tangier in Morocco. We study the case of the Tangier-Med port as transport infrastructure. We analyze the impacts of this port on the economic dynamics of this region and the location of productive activities.

This paper is a first attempt to empirically evaluate some competing hypotheses for the Austrian growth performance. We find that the real appreciations, gross investment, a low duration of unemployment and high youth employment exhibit a significant influence on economic growth. This validates the hard currency policy hypothesis, the macroeconomic management hypothesis, and the microinstitutions hypothesis, whilst all other fail according to this exercise. In particular, we find the Schulmeister-thesis of loose money and the deficit spending hypothesis are even counterfactual. Summarizing, we find that economic policy had its share in promoting growth in the Austrian economy. As a byproduct from our analysis, we find that low levels of unemployment have a significant and positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP, which calls for further theoretical research in this direction. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

In the 1960s, Nigeria was on a par, in terms of aspirations to attain a very high level of economic growth and development, with its fellow-oil producing and exporting countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, but has since failed to keep pace with them. Nigeria’s agricultural, manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors have played a continuous and significant role in the development of the country’s economy. The approval of the millennium development goals (MGDs) by the United Nations General Assembly therefore raises three pivotal questions for Nigeria. 1) Why is Nigeria still an underdeveloped and lowincome country? 2) What should the country do to make rapid economic and social progress? and 3) How can it attain a high level of economic development and growth?. This is the background of this study, which is an empirical investigation into the factors affecting Nigeria’s bid to achieve sustainable economic growth and development with particular reference to such sectors as agriculture, manufacturing and mining and quarrying (solid minerals) over the period of 1970-2005. This involves the analysis of the relevance of the health care and education sectors and examination of impediments to past economic development, a development model applicable to Nigeria, the efforts made and the challenges facing the country in achieving the MDGs, and the role of foreign development partners in complementing Nigeria’s development efforts. The methodology adopted for this study is sectoral-econometric modelling, using the Engle- Yoo (1991) model, which contributes to bridging the gap seen in empirical studies in the application of a multivariate dynamic econometric cointegration model on the effect of domestic and foreign financial resources investment for the development of the growth sectors in the Nigerian economy. The model captures the essential linkages between the growth sectors and the country’s efforts to achieve a high level of economic development. The results from the simulations are broadly consistent with findings described in theoretical and empirical literature. There is a strong positive relationship between the gross output of the agricultural, manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors and labour input and public capital expenditure for the growth sectors. Also there is a strong positive relationship between the agricultural credit guarantee scheme, fertiliser and the gross output of agriculture. Furthermore, the findings show a positive impact of the structural adjustment programme with the agricultural and manufacturing production. Dynamic simulation of results was undertaken to assess the path of the 10 percent dynamic adjustment (shocks) on the relevant exogenous variables and the response properties show remarkable and positive significant impact due to the shocks. The estimated actual and forecast values of the equations in the model show notable increase in the amount and growth of the gross domestic product of the real sectors in Naira billion from 2005 to 2008. The study calls to question rigid government control over the mining and quarrying sector. The importance of mining and quarrying in accelerating the pace of economic growth in Nigeria should rather motivate the government to deregulate and reform the sector. This will enable the government to attract investors into the sector, while effectively planning to encourage the proliferation of small-scale artisan, medium-scale and large-scale miners. The deregulation of the mining and quarrying sector will boost production, growth and development through employment creation, increased income of household miners and upliftment of the social and economic status of the vast majority of Nigerians. Some of the reasons identified for Nigeria’s poor economic performance include: the serious effect of “Dutch disease”, reflected in the country’s inability to manage and diversify its oil wealth to transform and achieve dynamic industrial (manufacturing), agricultural, mining, health and educational and other growth sectors. Nigeria also suffers the effects of a troubled political history, during which military rule persisted for extended periods. This study shows the importance of improving the knowledge base for policymaking, where intersectoral linkages between economic and social factors can be identified, and direct and indirect macroeconomic policy effects discerned. This distinguishes the study from earlier work in Nigeria on development policy. Achieving a high level of economic development through transforming the country’s real sectors will not only reduce poverty by providing food security, increased agricultural and industrial exports, increased per capita income and consumption, but will also bring about improved literacy and a healthy workforce and foster peace and security in Nigeria. In addition, success in transforming the real sectors will strengthen and broaden the productive base of the country, which currently relies heavily on the petroleum sector as the major earner of foreign exchange. In order to achieve a high level of economic development and growth, attention should be concentrated on channelling global financial resources to the above-mentioned sectors because of their strong linkages with and powerful value-added effect to the rest of the economy. Under the new democratic dispensation, there ought to be large investment into the growth and support sectors from domestic and external sources if the country is to attain the international growth target of achieving a high and sustainable level of economic development. Therefore, with a strong will to become a patriotic civil society, stable and prosperous, and enough wisdom to elect leaders with good will and fairly good knowledge of the country’s economy, great prospects lie before the Nigerian economy. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / unrestricted

This thesis studies the impact of labor markets on economic growth in both developed and developing countries and China's urbanization, by formalizing dual labor market characteristics and China's Hukou system in two theoretical models. The first is a unified growth model in an open economy environment that captures dual labor market characteristics. The mechanism involves economic growth driven by capital accumulation in the country with Lewisian labor market leading to increasing labor participation at a near constant wage. The model shows that surplus labor plays a critical role in explaining different economic growth paths and structural changes in developing and developed countries, such as China and the US. The second is a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous rural-urban migration to analyze the provision of rural and urban government services in China, with special emphasis on the role of the household registration (Hukou) system in shaping its urbanization process. It argues that China’s urban bias policy, which is enabled by the Hukou system restricting rural-urban migration, did not necessarily reduce economic efficiency, rather it might have only raised urban welfare at the expense of rural residents. As the Hukou system also ties people to particular geographical locations, our model argues that China's continuous bias towards coastal and big cities has started to cause economic inefficiency as well as inequality. It suggests that progressive Hukou reform reducing barriers to cross-region migration would improve economic efficiency and welfare.

A l’exact opposé des intuitions selon lesquelles la disparité régionale est une conséquence inéluctable du dilemme des gagnants et des perdants, la construction des inégalités en Tunisie est imputée à des forces réelles. La première force fait écho au modèle de développement économique à l’œuvre depuis l’ajustement structurel. En effet, la marche forcée vers le libéralisme et la mondialisation et parfois l’excès de zèle dans l’application des thérapies néo-libérales ont significativement contribué à l’élargissement du fossé entre la Tunisie littorale et la Tunisie profonde. La polarisation des activités économiques qui s’inscrit dans la logique d’accroissement de la productivité, n’a pas exercé l'effet d'entraînement souhaité. Ce qui a provoqué l’approfondissement du clivage séparant le littoral du reste du territoire tunisien. La deuxième source d’inégalités soulevée par la thèse est l’environnement institutionnel. En effet, la qualité de régulation, la stabilité politique et la faible participation de la population locale dans la conception des politiques de développement et dans la vie politique ont significativement contribué à la construction des inégalités régionales. En revanche, la croissance économique est d’une manière générale pro-pauvre. Elle a contribué dans la réduction des inégalités. En termes de recommandation de politique économique, afin de réduire sinon corriger au strict minimum les inégalités, il nous paraît impérieux de revoir la fuite libérale de l’économie tunisienne et son intégration poussée dans l’économie mondiale en réhabilitant le rôle de l’État de sorte qu’il puisse jouer de nouveau son rôle régulateur (repenser les incitations aux investissements dans les régions profondes, engager une discrimination positive en faveur des zones profondes et ce en matière d’investissements publics dans l’infrastructure). La deuxième recommandation renvoie à la nécessité d’un basculement vers une approche territoriale de développement qui accorde une place de choix aux acteurs locaux dans la conception et l’exécution des politiques de développement. La troisième recommandation concerne la nécessité d’une révision des modes de gouvernance horizontale et verticale afin de favoriser le processus de territorialisation et d’améliorer la qualité des institutions économiques et politiques. / At the exact opposite intuitions according to which regional disparity is an unavoidable consequence of the dilemma of winners and losers, construction of inequalities in Tunisia is attributed to real forces. The first force echoes the economic development model at work since structural adjustment. Indeed, the forced march towards liberalism and globalization zeal and speed in the field has significantly contributed to the widening gap between the coastal and deep Tunisia. The polarization of economic activity which falls within the logic of productivity growth, has not exercised the desired ripple effect which helped to dig the groove separating the rest of the coastal territory. The second source of inequality raised by the thesis is the institutional environment. Indeed, the quality of regulation, political stability and the low participation of the local population in the implementation of development policies and in political life have significantly contributed in the construction of regional inequalities in Tunisia. However, economic growth is pro-poor generally. She contributed in reducing inequalities.In terms of economic policy recommendation, it seems imperative to correct if not reduce to a minimum inequality, to review the liberal flight of the Tunisian economy and its integration into the global economy pushed by a state interventionism (rethink investment incentives in the deeper regions, direct public investment in infrastructure to deeper areas ...). The second recommendation refers to the need for a shift towards a territorial development approach that gives pride of place to local stakeholders in the design and implementation of development policies. The third recommendation is the need for a revision of the horizontal and vertical modes of governance to promote the regionalization process and improve the quality of economic and political institutions