Šiame darbe nagrinėjama kokie pagrindiniai makroekonominiai rodikliai stipriausiai įtakoja ekonomikos augimą. Ekonomikos augimas čia matuojamas bendrojo vidaus produkto augimu. Teorinėje darbo dalyje analizuojama Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių ekonomikos augimo veiksnių teoriniai ir praktiniai tyrimai. Analitinėje - tiriamojoje dalyje naudojami statistiniai - ekonometriniai (regresijos, elastingumo, koreliacijos koeficientų skaičiavimas, A. Okuno dėsnis), detalizavimo metodai, ekspertų vertinimai ir prognozės. Pasitvirtina autoriaus suformuluota fipotezė apie tai, kad A.Okuno dėsnis susiejantis nedarbo lygį su BVP praradimu Lietuvos ūkio sąlygomis 2001 – 2007 m. įgyja kitą santykį nei 1:2,5. Atliekant tyrimą naudoti statistiniai duomenys, paimti iš Lietuvos statistikos departamento, Lietuvos laisvosios rinkos instituto, komercinių bankų ūkio apžvalgų, Europos statistikos departamento, Lietuvos vyriausybės, finansų, ūkio ministerijų. / In this study is analyzed which macroeconomic indicators stronger influence economic growth. Economic growth is realized as the growth of the gross domestic product. In the first part of this study are analyzed practical and theoretical researches of the factors of economic growth of Lithuanian and foreign authors. In the analytic part of the study there is used statistical – econometrical (regression, elasticity, corral, method of Okun), methods of detail, evaluation of expert. There is confirmed the hypothesis, that the method of Okun in period of 2001 – 2007 years gets another relation than 1: 2,5. There is used statistical data which is used from Department of Lithuanian Statistics, Lithuanian Free Market Institute, commercial banks annual reports, Euro stat, Lithuanian government and ministers.

Pastaruoju metu ekonomikos perkaitimas tapo daugumos ekonomikos analitikų svarstoma tema. Šio mokslinio darbo pagrindinis tikslas – patikslinti ekonomikos perkaitimo apibrėžimą ir pasiūlyti prie apibrėžimo adaptuotą ekonomikos perkaitimo vertinimo metodiką. Pirmoje šio mokslinio darbo dalyje, remiantis ekonomikos mokslinės literatūros analize, atskleistas nepakankamas ekonomikos perkaitimo problematikos ištyrimo lygis – trūksta ekonomikos perkaitimo konkretaus apibrėžimo ir jo vertinimo tikslumo. Šios problematikos sprendimo sritys bus tobulinamos tolesniuose šio darbo skyriuose. Antroje šio mokslinio darbo dalyje pagal pirmoje darbo dalyje išanalizuotas ekonomikos perkaitimo metodikas pasirenkami perkaitimo rodikliai, susiję su paklausa, atliekama naujausia jų analizė ir įvertinama Lietuvos ekonomikos perkaitimo grėsmė. Perkaitimo rodiklių analizės eigoje atskleistas nepakankamas ekonomikos perkaitimo įvertinimas, nes akcentuojami tik paklausos veiksniai, netiriamas pasiūlos vaidmuo. Atsižvelgiant į ekonomikos perkaitimo problematikos ištyrimo lygį ir neįvertintą pasiūlos vaidmenį, paskutinėje šio mokslinio darbo dalyje pateikiamas ekonomikos perkaitimo mechanizmas pasiūlos aspektu ir pasiūlomas pakoreguotas ekonomikos perkaitimo metodas, kurio pagalba įvertinama Lietuvos ekonomikos perkaitimo grėsmė. / The economic overheating recently became a topic of discussions among majority of economic analysts. The purpose of this scientific work is to present the definition of economic overheating in the aspect of supply and to propose the evaluation methodic of economic overheating. In the first part of this work, referring to the analysis of scientific literature, the insufficient level of investigation of economic overheating topic is revealed – there is a lack of concrete economic overheating definition and it‘s precise evaluation. The fields of solutions for these topics will be developed in further chapters. In the second part of this scientific work according to the analyzed economic overheating methodology in the first part the overheating indexes, bounded to demand, are chosen, the newest analysis of these indexes is implemented and the evaluation of economic overheating risk in Lithuania is done. In the progress of analysis of economic overheating indexes the insufficient evaluation of economic overheating is revealed, because only the demand‘s factors are being highlighted, the impact of supply was not investigated. Taking into consideration the level of economic overheating problem‘s evaluation and the fact that the supply‘s impact was not estimated, in the last part of this scientific work the economic overheating mechanism in the aspect of supply is presented and the improved economic overheating method is offered, with which help the evaluation of economic... [to full text]

Lietuva, pastaraisiais metais pasižymėjo aukštu ekonominio augimo lygiu bei atskirų sričių vystymųsi. Augant ekonomikai didėja visuomeniniai poreikiai, gamybos apimtys, auga vartojimas. Natūralu, kad tokiomis sąlygomis iškyla grėsmė aplinkai, t.y. kad spartus ekonominis vystymasis bus pasiektas aplinkos sąskaita. Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas – remiantis teoriniais ekonominio augimo bei darnaus vystymosi pagrindais, išanalizuoti ir įvertinti pastarųjų metų Lietuvos ekonominį augimą darnaus vystymosi kontekste. / Lithuania, as well as other two Baltic states, could be characterized by a high level of economic growth and development in various fields in previous years. Naturally, threats to environment emerge under such conditions, i. e. the intense economic development is pursued at the expense of the environment. The main goal of the paper is analyse and evaluate the tendencies and perspectives on economic growth in Lithuania of the recent years, based on the theoretical principles of economic growth and sustainable development.

We assess empirically the role played by prospective ageing measures as a predictor of income growth in Europe. We show that prospective ageing measures which move beyond chronological age and incorporate changes in life expectancy are able to explain better the recent long-run growth experience of European economies. The improvement in explanatory power of prospective ageing indicators as compared to standard measures based on chronological age is particularly relevant for long-run economic growth horizons. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Has economic integration improved the postwar growth performance of the actual fifteen member states of the European Union (EU)? To answer this question, we first construct an index of integration for each member state that explicitly accounts for global integration (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration. Using this variable, we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a dynamic growth accounting framework, both in a time series setting for the (aggregate) EU and a panel approach for the EU member states. Although the hypothesis of permanent growth effects as postulated by endogenous growth models with scale effects is clearly rejected, we find significant levels effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one fifth lower today, if no integration had taken place since 1950. Interestingly, two third of this effect are due to GATT-liberalization. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Iki ekonominės krizės visuomenėje vyravo vartotojiškas požiūris, gauti kuo didesnes pajamas, noras turėti kuo daugiau, tačiau toks besaikis vartojimas pasaulį privedė prie finansinės krizės ir sukrėtė vyraujantį ekonominį modelį iki pat pamatų. Nepaisant technologinių pasiekimų, keičiantis gamybos ir vartojimo tempams kinta ir išteklių naudojimas bei aplinkos tarša. Nacionalinėje darnaus vystymosi strategijoje (toliau NDVS) (2009) iškeltas tikslas, kad Lietuva pagal ekonomikos lygį ir išteklių naudojimo efektyvumo rodiklius iki 2020 m. turi pasiekti 2003 m. ES–15 šalių vidurkį, o pagal aplinkos taršos rodiklius – neviršyti ES leistinų normatyvų, todėl labai svarbu žinoti, kaip siekiant šių tikslų gali keistis aplinkos būklė ir, ar pasiseks įgyvendinti darnaus vystymosi strategijoje numatytus aplinkosauginius tikslus. Darbo tikslas – išanalizuoti pagrindinius aplinkos sektoriaus darnaus vystymosi rodiklius ir nustatyti jų priklausomybę nuo ekonomikos pokyčių 2000–2020 m. Lietuvoje. Darbe buvo analizuojami pagrindiniai Lietuvos darnaus vystymosi ekonominiai, socialiniai ir aplinkosauginiai rodikliai 2000–2010 m., taip pat nustatyta aplinkos kintamųjų priklausomybė nuo ekonomikos (ne)augimo ir įvertintos galimos aplinkos kintamųjų tendencijos bei galimybės įgyvendinti iškeltus tikslus, pagal tris galimus ekonomikos vystymosi scenarijus 2010–2020 m. laikotarpiu. Sudarius tris galimus ekonomikos vystymosi scenarijus rezultatai parodė, kad jei šalies ūkis vystytųsi pagal pirmą (16... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Consumeristic approach to maximize income, the desire to have more has dominated in societies before the economic crisis, but that excessive consumption of the world has led to the financial crisis witch has shaken dominant economic model to the foundation. Despite technological achievements, changing production and consumption rates influence use of resources and environment pollution. The main aim of the National Sustainable Development Strategy (2009) is to achieve the average development level of EU15 in year 2003 according to the indicators of economic and social developments as well as to the efficiency in consumption of resources and to stay within the EU’s allowable limits by 2020. The aim of the study is to examine main sustainability indicators of environmental sphere and to assess their dependence from economic (GDP) changes over 2000–2020 periods in Lithuania. The main changes of indicators of sustainable development over 2000–2010 period were assessed in Lithuania. Also dependence of environment variables from economic (de)growth was examined and possible tendencies of environmental variables and opportunities to achieve foreseen targets, according to three possible scenarios for economic development over 2000–2020 periods were evaluated. Three possible scenarios for economic development has shown that if country’s economy develops according to the first (16 % GDP growth) or second (zero GDP growth) scenario, the aim set by NSDS (2009) to decouple the... [to full text]

The purpose of this study is to examine economic growth impact on financial sector development in the Baltic States by investigating interrelation between indicators of these two economic areas. Research is based on scientific literature and empirical analysis. Statistical data is collected mostly from World Bank database in the period between 1994-2009. Indicators like liquid liabilities to GDP and private credit to GDP ratio are used to measure the financial sector size and activity. Economic growth is analyzed throughout total production and factors which are suggested by three economic growth theories. Analysis of GDP is made by expenditure approach. Statistical data showed positive financial sector development in Baltic States during the research period. Estonia had highest developed financial sector, then followed Latvia and Lithuania. The main reason for strongest financial performance in Estonia can be explained by highest export and import activity, financial capital accumulation and lowest real interest rates, unemployment and population. Financial sector development in Latvia was supported by high education expenditure and capital formation in the private sector. Lowest performance of financial activity in Lithuania can be justified by greatest unemployment, population and lowest financial capital attraction. This work confirms Patrick's (1966) demand-following hypothesis which states that growing economy leads to increasing demand of financial services and so... [to full text] / Šių studijų tikslas yra ištirti ekonomikos augimo įtaką finansinio sektoriaus plėtrai Baltijos šalyse, nagrinėjant tarpusavio ryšį tarp šių dviejų ekonominiu sričių vystymosi rodiklių. Tyrimas remiasi moksline literatūra ir empirine analize. Statistiniai duomenys yra surinkti daugiausiai iš Pasaulio Banko duomenų bazės 1994-2009 metų laikotarpyje. Indikatoriai kaip likvidţių įsipareigojimų santykis su BVP ir privačių kreditų santykis su BVP yra naudojami matuojant finansinio sektoriaus dydį ir aktyvumą. Ekonomikos augimas analizuojamas per bendrą produkciją ir indikatorius, kurie buvo pasiūlyti trijų ekonomikos augimo teorijų. BVP analizuojamas išlaidų metodu. Statistiniai duomenys parodė pozityvų finansinio sektoriaus vystymąsi Baltijos šalyse tiriamajame laikotarpyje. Estija turėjo labiausiai išvystytą finansinį sektorių, po jos sekė Latvija ir galiausiai Lietuva. Stipri finansinė padėtis Estijoje gali būti paaiškinama dėl aukšto eksporto ir importo aktyvumo, finansinio kapitalo akumuliacijos ir ţemos palūkanų normos, ţemo nedarbo ir populiacijos. Finansinio sektoriaus plėtra Latvijoje buvo paremta didelėmis švietimo išlaidomis ir kapitalo formavimu privačiame sektoriuje. Silpnesnį finansinį sektorių Lietuvoje greičiausiai sąlygojo didţiausias nedarbas, populiacija, ir maţiausias finansinio kapitalo pritraukimas. Šis darbas patvirtina Patricko (1966) paklausos-sekimo hipotezę, kuri teigia, kad ekonomikos augimas veda prie didėjančios finansinių paslaugų paklausos ir taip... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Applying a growth accounting framework and a wide range of static and dynamic panel data estimators on a panel covering 22 market economies and 11 transition countries over 1990-2001, we find a weak and fragile finance-growth link in market economies, but strong financial sectorinduced short-run growth effects in transition countries. The main growth effect hereby runs via the productivity channel. Parametric heterogeneity and financial structure seem to play a more important role than hitherto assumed: The financial sector and its different segments trigger different growth effects in different countries. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

This dissertation focuses on the relationship between the education-based fertility gap and economic growth and on policy as a determinant of fertility. In the first essay I evaluate the impact of differential fertility (the difference between fertility rates of women with high educational attainment and women with low educational attainment) on economic growth by accounting for critical marginal effects and the general level of educational attainment in a given country. I also examine the possibility that this effect varies based on level of inequality and income levels. I find that for a less developed country with high income inequality, higher fertility rates of women with lower education has a favorable impact on economic development. In the second essay I examine the transmission and magnitude of the effect of differential fertility on economic growth at the subnational level. I explore the relationship between differential fertility and economic growth in a cross-U.S. state context. I find that a larger gap in fertility rates between highly-educated and less-educated women is strongly associated with a decrease in the rate of long-run economic growth across U.S. states, even after accounting for the levels of inequality and overall fertility. In the third essay I explore policy as a determinant of the education-based fertility gap. I use the 2007 Massachusetts healthcare reform which provides a good setting for evaluating the effect of an exogenous policy on the fertility. I find that fertility increases among young married women and decreases among young unmarried women but that there is no asymmetrical fertility response based on the education level of the mother.

Darbo objektas - žmonių gerovės ir laimės sąryšis Darbo tikslas - ištirti žmonių gerovės kilimo ir laimės sąryšį Lietuvoje. Darbo uždaviniai: Ištirti ir susisteminti mokslinę teorinę ir empirinę literatūra, nagrinėjančią gerovės ir laimės ryšius. Remiantis literatūros analize, suformuluoti tyrimo metodiką, bei pateikti jos pagrindimą. Išnagrinėti žmonių gerovę lemiančius veiksnius ir išanalizuoti žmonių laimės indeksą labiausiai įtakojančius faktorių dinamiką Lietuvoje bei palyginti su kitų šalių duomenimis. Išstudijavus gerovę ir laimę lemiančius veiksnių dinamiką išnagrinėti jų tarpusavio sąryšį, taikant statistinės analizės metodus; Atlikti gyventojų anketinę apklausą, siekiant nustatyti veiksnius, įtakojančius jų laimės pojūtį bei įvertinti jų poveikį laimės pojūčiui užsibrėžtoje skalėje. / Work item - the people's welfare and happiness, and the relationship between them. The aim - to explore people's welfare and happiness, and relationship between them in Lithuania. Job tasks: 1. Investigate scientific, theoretical and empirical literature dealing with the welfare and happiness. 2. Based on the literature analysis, create formulation of research methodology, and to provide its justification. 3. Examine human welfare and to analyze the determinants of human happiness index of the factors influencing the dynamics of Lithuania, and compared with data from other countries. 4. Examination welfare and happiness of the determinants of factors to examine the dynamics of their relationship, the application of statistical methods of analysis; 5. Make survey questionnaire, in order to identify the factors that influence people sense of happiness and to assess their impact on the feelings of happiness's scale. Hypothesis - people's feeling of happiness in Lithuania are directly dependent on their economic welfare. The work will contain three parts. The first part is an overview of scientific information, scientific articles related to the path of prosperity and happiness, and relationships. The second part will present the study methodology and its rationale, as well as analysis of the key indicators of well-being and happiness a sense of the determinants of the trend in Lithuania and statistically assess the relationship between them. The third section will present... [to full text]