Cette thèse est une contribution à l'étude de la nécéssaire articulation entre théorie économique, droit et politique de la concurrence / This thesis is a contribution to the study of the necessqary link between economic theory, law and compétition polict

This thesis considers the structural characteristics of online criminal networks from a technical and an economic perspective. Through large-scale measurements, we empirically describe some salient elements of the online criminal infrastructures, and we derive economic models characterizing the associated monetization paths enabling criminal profitability. This analysis reveals the existence of structural choke points: components of online criminal operations being limited in number, and critical for the operations’ profitability. Consequently, interventions targeting such components can reduce the opportunities and incentives to engage in online crime through an increase in criminal operational costs, and in the risk of apprehension. We define a methodology describing the process of distilling the knowledge gained from the empirical measurements on the criminal infrastructures towards identifying and evaluating appropriate countermeasures. We argue that countermeasures, as defined in the context of situational crime prevention, can be effective for a long-term reduction in the occurrence of online crime.

Expanding access to electricity is central to development in East Africa but massive increases in investment are required to achieve universal access. Private sector participation in electrification is essential to meeting electricity access targets. Policy makers have acknowledged that grid extension in many remote rural areas is not as cost effective as decentralized alternatives such as microgrids. Microgrid companies have been unable to scale beyond pilot projects due in part to challenges in raising capital for a business model that is perceived to be risky. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the primary sources of investment risk in microgrid utilities and study ways to mitigate these risks to make these businesses more viable. Two modeling tools have been developed to this end. The Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM) models the technical and financial performance of microgrid utilities using uncertain and dynamic inputs to permit explicit modeling of financial risk. This model is applied in an investment risk assessment and case study in Rwanda. Key findings suggest that the most important drivers of risk are fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, demand for electricity, and price elasticity of demand for electricity. The relative importance of these factors is technology dependent with demand uncertainty figuring stronger for solar and high solar penetration hybrid systems and fuel prices driving risk in diesel power and low solar penetration hybrid systems. Considering uncertainty in system sizing presents a tradeoff whereby a decrease in expected equity return decreases downside risk. High solar penetration systems are also found to be more attractive to lenders. The second modeling tool leverages electricity consumption and demographic data from four microgrids in Tanzania to forecast demand for electricity in newly electrified communities. Using statistical learning techniques, improvements in prediction performance was achieved over the historical mean baseline. I have also identified important predictors in estimating electricity consumption of newly connected customers. These include tariff structures and prices, preconnection sources of electricity and lighting, levels of spending on electricity services and airtime, and pre-connection appliance ownership. Prior exposure to electricity, disposable income, and price are dominant factors in estimating demand.

Stochastic frontier analysis is an exciting method of economic production modeling that is relevant to hospitals, stock markets, manufacturing factories, and services. In this paper, we create a new model using the normal distribution and truncated skew-Laplace distribution, namely the normal-truncated skew-Laplace model. This is a generalized model of the normal-exponential case. Furthermore, we compute the true technical efficiency and estimated technical efficiency of the normal-truncated skewed-Laplace model. Also, we compare the technical efficiencies of normal-truncated skewed-Laplace model and normal-exponential model.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Diagnostic Medicine/Pathobiology / Robert L. Larson / Bradley J. White / There are multiple modalities available to evaluate health or stress status of animals. The objective of my research was to evaluate different modalities including behavior, rectal and nasal temperature, and blood samples to determine the relationship with these outcomes of interest in bovine respiratory disease (BRD) events, environmental conditions, transportation, and Mannheimia haemolytica challenge model. The objective for the final project was to determine whether diagnostic sensitivity or specificity resulted in greater economic value for the industry using simulation models for identification of BRD. There was a positive association with rectal temperature and probability of not finishing the production cycle normally, but this relationship was not linear. Rectal temperature of feedlot calves at first treatment for BRD had limited value as a prognostic indicator of whether those calves would finish the production cycle normally. A positive association between rectal temperature and ambient temperature and temperature-humidity index was determined. Environmental conditions must be considered when rectal temperature is used as a diagnostic tool. At 48 hours after initiation of transportation there were no differences in body weight, rectal temperature, and time spent at various locations in the pen detected between transported and non-transported control heifers. Transportation of heifers during periods of high ambient temperatures caused transient changes in physiologic and behavioral indices of heifers. Calves challenged with Mannheimia haemolytica had more changes in behavior, body weight, and blood biomarkers during high ambient temperatures compared to control calves. Results of this study may guide research in development of objective assessment tools for identification and management of cattle affected with BRD during extreme summer conditions. For both low and high apparent prevalence cohorts, increasing diagnostic specificity resulted in more rapid, positive change in net returns compared to change in increasing sensitivity. Improvement of diagnostic specificity, perhaps through a confirmatory test or pen-level diagnostics, can increase diagnostic value. Mortality risk was the primary driver for net returns. Results from this study are important for determining future research priorities to analyze diagnostic techniques for BRD and provide a novel way for modeling diagnostic tests.

Les fluctuations du taux de change ont des impacts sur tous les secteurs économiques surtout l'exportation, l'importation, le choix d'investissement, le pouvoir d'achat et sans doute le tourisme. Le tourisme et le taux de change sont très vulnérables à des facteurs exogènes d'où la complexité qui se pose au niveau de la gestion. Assurer un développement économique durable est devenu une préoccupation pour les États et les acteurs touristiques, d'où une autre complexité qui s'ajoute au secteur touristique. Nos recherches ont montré un impact important du taux de change sur le tourisme notamment sur le développement économique de ce secteur. En appliquant un modèle économique qui est basé sur la compétitivité des prix touristiques, nous avons pu estimer qu'une appréciation de l'euro de 10% peut détériorer la balance touristique française d'environ 4 Milliards d'euros. De même, une étude sectorielle entre la Grèce et la Turquie a montré la compétitivité touristique de la Grèce malgré la crise. Finalement, le tourisme domestique reste le pilier dans n'importe quelle politique touristique nationale qui, en même temps, réduit la pression à la baisse sur la monnaie nationale. / Exchange rate fluctuations have impacts on all the economic sectors mostly exports and imports, choice of investment, purchase power last but not least tourism. Tourism and exchange rate are very vulnerable to exogenous factors, hence the complexity that arises at the management level. Ensuring sustainable development became a priority for governments as well as for tourism businesses, thus, another complexity adds up for the tourism industry.Our studies have shown a notable impact of exchange rate on tourism, especially on the economic development of this sector. Applying an economic model based on tourism price competitiveness, we were able to estimate that an appreciation of 10% of the Euro could deteriorate the French tourism receipts by around 4 Billion Euros. On the other hand, a comparative study between Greece and Turkey showed price competitiveness on favor of Greece despite the economic crisis. Finally, the domestic tourism constitutes an essential pillar for any national tourism policy, at the same time, it prevents national currency deterioration.

abstract: Drawn from a trio of manuscripts, this dissertation evaluates the sustainability contributions and implications of deploying underutilized spaces for alternative uses at multiple scales: urban, regional and continental. The first paper considers the use of underutilized spaces at the urban scale for urban agriculture (UA) to meet local sustainability goals in Phoenix, Arizona. Through a data-driven analysis, it demonstrates UA can meet 90% of annual demand for fresh produce, supply local produce in all food deserts, reduce areas underserved by public parks by 60%, and displace >50,000 tons of carbon-dioxide emissions from buildings. The second paper considers marginal agricultural land use for bioenergy crop cultivation to meet future liquid fuels demand from cellulosic biofuels sustainably and profitably. At a wholesale fuel price of $4 gallons-of-gasoline-equivalent, 30 to 90.7 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels can be supplied by converting 22 to 79.3 million hectares of marginal lands in the Eastern United States (U.S.). Displacing marginal croplands (9.4-13.7 million hectares) reduces stress on water resources by preserving soil moisture. This displacement is comparable to existing land use for first-generation biofuels, limiting food supply impacts. Coupled modeling reveals positive hydroclimate feedback on bioenergy crop yields that moderates the land footprint. The third paper examines the sustainability implications of expanding use of marginal lands for corn cultivation in the Western Corn Belt, a commercially important and environmentally sensitive U.S. region. Corn cultivation on lower quality lands, which tend to overlap with marginal agricultural lands, is shown to be nearly three times more sensitive to changes in crop prices. Therefore, corn cultivation disproportionately expanded into these lands following price spikes. Underutilized spaces can contribute towards sustainability at small and large scales in a complementary fashion. While supplying fresh produce locally and delivering other benefits in terms of energy use and public health, UA can also reduce pressures on croplands and complement non-urban food production. This complementarity can help diversify agricultural land use for meeting other goals, like supplying biofuels. However, understanding the role of market forces and economic linkages is critical to anticipate any unintended consequences due to such re-organization of land use. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2020

abstract: Need-based transfers (NBTs) are a form of risk-pooling in which binary welfare exchanges occur to preserve the viable participation of individuals in an economy, e.g. reciprocal gifting of cattle among East African herders or food sharing among vampire bats. With the broad goal of better understanding the mathematics of such binary welfare and risk pooling, agent-based simulations are conducted to explore socially optimal transfer policies and sharing network structures, kinetic exchange models that utilize tools from the kinetic theory of gas dynamics are utilized to characterize the wealth distribution of an NBT economy, and a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma is analyzed to determine whether and why individuals would participate in such a system of reciprocal altruism. From agent-based simulation and kinetic exchange models, it is found that regressive NBT wealth redistribution acts as a cutting stock optimization heuristic that most efficiently matches deficits to surpluses to improve short-term survival; however, progressive redistribution leads to a wealth distribution that is more stable in volatile environments and therefore is optimal for long-term survival. Homogeneous sharing networks with low variance in degree are found to be ideal for maintaining community viability as the burden and benefit of NBTs is equally shared. Also, phrasing NBTs as a survivor’s dilemma reveals parameter regions where the repeated game becomes equivalent to a stag hunt or harmony game, and thus where cooperation is evolutionarily stable. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Applied Mathematics 2018

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The project aimed to carry out the techno-economic modeling of the heterotrophic microalgae bioreactors application in the poultry and swine abattoirs and processing wastewater treatment and possible exploitation of bioproducts from biomass generated in the process. The project focus was directed to the techno-economic modeling of bioprocesses following: (i) agroindustrial wastewater treatment and integral biomass production (ii) obtaining of bulk oil and lipid extracted algal (LEA) as feedstock for biodiesel conversion process and protein production (iii) obtaining of microalgal carotenoid-rich oleoresin solubilized in soybean oil. The results indicated that the agroindustrial wastewater treatment costs and production of microalgal biomass were USD 2.66 per cubic meter and USD 30 per ton of dried biomass respectively. The obtaining of bulk oil and LEA had a production cost of approx. USD 386.5 and 70.4 per ton. Finally, the oleoresin produced had an estimated production cost in USD 146.9 per kilogram. The results evidenced that the techno-economic modeling of the heterotrophic microalgae bioreactors application are an alternative to substantially minimize the production costs, giving economic sustainability to the agroindustry of poultry and swine processing. / O projeto teve por objetivo realizar a modelagem técnico-econômica da aplicação de biorreatores heterotróficos microalgais no tratamento de efluentes provenientes do abate e processamento de aves e suínos e possível exploração dos bioprodutos provenientes da biomassa gerada no processo. O foco do projeto foi direcionado à modelagem técnicoeconômica dos seguintes bioprocessos: (i) tratamento do efluente agroindustrial e produção de biomassa integral (ii) obtenção de óleo a granel e farelo microalgal desengordurado, como matéria-prima para o processo de conversão de biodiesel microalgal e produção de proteína (iii) obtenção de oleorresina de carotenóides mistos solubilizada em óleo de soja a partir de microalgas. Os resultados indicaram que os custos de tratamento do efluente agroindustrial e produção de biomassa microalgal foram US$ 2,66 por m³ de efluente e US$ 30 por tonelada de biomassa seca respectivamente. A obtenção de óleo a granel e farelo de microalgas obtiveram um custo de produção de US$ 386,5 e 70,4 por tonelada de óleo e farelo, respectivamente. Por fim, a oleorresina produzida teve um custo de produção estimado em US$ 146,9 por quilograma. Os resultados evidenciaram que a modelagem técnico-econômica da aplicação do biorreator heterotrófico microalgal, são uma alternativa para minimizar substancialmente os custos de produção, dando sustentabilidade econômica às agroindústrias de processamento de aves e suínos.

L'économie de la région du Moyen-Orient dépend fortement de l'agriculture comme source de nourriture et de revenus. Ces pays ont lancé des politiques agricoles qui préconisent l'intensification de leurs systèmes de production. Ces politiques encouragent une plus grande utilisation des intrants subventionnés et l'achat de la production agricole à des prix subventionnés. La méthodologie de ce travail a consisté à commencer par un sondage complet sur les exploitations agricoles suivi d'une analyse par grappes pour aider à identifier et évaluer la diversité des systèmes agricoles dans la région et leurs performances. Ensuite, proposer des scénarios de variations de la disponibilité et des prix de l'eau, des prix du marché des produits agricoles et des primes accordées aux agriculteurs afin de tester la vulnérabilité des systèmes de culture actuels aux chocs. Et enfin, construire un modèle bio-économique pour aider à capturer les indicateurs de résilience des systèmes agricoles dans la région. Baalbek-Hermel, dans la partie nord de la vallée de Bekka au Liban, a été choisi pour être représentatif en raison du fait qu'il s'agit de la zone la plus désertification dans le pays et l'une de ses zones agricoles les plus pauvres. Il a des conditions biophysiques variées / mosaïques, avec une forte fluctuation des précipitations. L'intensification de l'agriculture dans la région a commencé délibérément dans les années 1970. L'enquête au niveau de la ferme a été effectuée en choisissant d'abord les fermes représentatives: un échantillon de 97 agriculteurs sur 486 ont été sélectionnés et ont reçu un questionnaire quantitatif contenant des questions fermées couvrant le profil socioéconomique du fermier, les pratiques agricoles, la production, les coûts engagés et l'accès au marketing stratégies. Estimation de la quantité d'eau d'irrigation par culture, puisque l'eau d'irrigation est distribuée aux exploitations par heure ou par superficie, et non par le volume d'eau appliqué. Pour estimer la quantité d'eau d'irrigation appliquée par culture et, par la suite, son coût, initialement exprimé en zone ou en temps, deux étapes de calcul ont été définies: cartographier les systèmes spatiaux de distribution d'eau dans la zone d'étude et estimation du débit d'eau pour chaque source de l'eau d'irrigation.Pour classer les différentes exploitations dans la zone d'étude selon leurs modèles de culture, une analyse de composante principale (ACP), suivie de Classification ascendante hiérarchique (CAH) a été effectuée. La typologie de la ferme a ensuite été suivie d'une analyse de sensibilité pour déterminer dans quelle mesure les revenus agricoles étaient sensibles aux prix et aux variations de subvention. L'analyse effectuée visait à évaluer, pour chaque type de ferme, la perte de revenu, mais aussi la perte de productivité en réponse à la suppression des subventions pour chaque culture (blé, raisin et pomme de terre), ou à l'augmentation des prix de l'eau d'irrigation en afin de réduire sa consommation. Enfin, des scénarios de vulnérabilité ont été définis, composés principalement de quatre éléments: horizon temporel, échelle spatiale, forces d'entraînement externes, et indicateurs / variables intermédiaires. Le modèle bio-économique récursif dynamique, est développé pour évaluer les scénarios et calculer les indicateurs de résilience. Nos résultats ont montré que les voies d'intensification ont conduit à cinq types différents de systèmes agricoles. Bien que ces types de cultures suivent des trajectoires différentes, ils atteignent toujours des revenus similaires avec différents impacts environnementaux potentiels. Cette étude montre que l'intensification de l'agriculture a permis aux agriculteurs d'augmenter leurs revenus, mais souvent au détriment de la dégradation de l'environnement. Cependant, cette amélioration reste très dépendante des niveaux de soutien direct ou indirect accordés aux agriculteurs. / The economy of the Middle East relies heavily on agriculture as a source of food and income. These countries have initiated agricultural policies that advocate the intensification of their production systems. These policies encourage greater use of subsidized inputs and the purchase of famers’ production at subsidized prices compared to international market prices. The methodology of this work was to start with comprehensive farms survey followed by a cluster analysis to help identify and assess the farming systems diversity in the area and their performances. Then to propose scenarios of variations in water availability and prices, market prices of agricultural produce, and premiums given to farmers for the purpose of testing the vulnerability of the current cropping systems to shocks. And finally to construct a bio-economic model to help capturing the resilience indicators of the farming systems in the area. Baalbek-Hermel, in the northern part of the Bekka Valley in Lebanon, was selected to be representative for Lebanon as well as the MENA region due to the facts that it is the most desertification prone area in country and one of its poorest agricultural areas. It has diverse /mosaic biophysical conditions, with high fluctuation in rainfall. Agricultural intensification in the area started deliberately in 1970. Survey at the farm level was conducted by first selecting representative farms: a sample of 97 farmers out of 486 were selected and given a quantitative questionnaire containing closed questions covering the farmer’s socio-economic profile, farming practices, production, costs incurred, and marketing access strategies. Estimation of amount of irrigation water per crop followed since irrigation water is distributed to farms on a per hour or per area basis, and not based on the volume of water applied. To estimate the amount of irrigation water applied per crop, and subsequently its cost, which is initially expressed as area or time, two calculation steps were defined: mapping the spatial water distribution systems in the study area, and estimation of water flow for each source of irrigation water. To classify the different farms in the study area according to their cropping patterns, a principal component analysis (PCA), followed by Hierarchical Ascendant Classification (HAC) was performed. The farm typology was then followed by a sensitivity analysis to investigate the extent to which farm incomes, in the study region, were sensitive to prices and subsidy variabilities. This includes sensitivity to allocated premiums or/and product price, and irrigation water prices, taking into consideration farming system diversity in the region. The analysis carried out was intended to assess, for each farm type, income loss, but also productivity loss in response to the suppression of subsidies for each crop (wheat tobacco, grape, and potato), or to the increase in irrigation water prices in order to reduce its consumption. Finally, scenarios for vulnerability were defined, which were composed of mainly four components: time horizon, spatial scale, external driving forces, and indicators/intermediate variables. The dynamic recursive bio-economic model was developed to assess the scenarios and calculate the resilience indicators. Our results showed that intensification pathways led to five different types of farming systems, except for conventional extensive cereal farms. Although these farming types follow different trajectories, they still achieve similar incomes with different potential environmental impacts. Beyond the results obtained at study zone level, this study shows that the intensification of agriculture has allowed farmers to increase their incomes, but often at the cost of environmental degradation. However, this improvement remains very dependent on direct or indirect support levels granted to farmers.