Bulk electric system reliability assessment is an important activity in both vertically integrated and unbundled electric power utilities. The conventional deterministic N-1 criterion normally used in bulk electric system planning does not respond to the probabilistic factors that influence the reliability of the system and is a rigid criterion. New assessment procedures are therefore required that combine the traditional deterministic approach with probabilistic perspectives to provide a responsive planning criterion.<p>This research work introduces the concept of a joint deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) criterion for bulk electric system planning using a previously developed software package designated as MECORE. The D-P concept presented is a deterministic framework that incorporates a probabilistic criterion. This research examines the application of the conventional deterministic N-1, the basic probabilistic and the D-P criteria to two test systems. The studies show that the D-P approach is driven by the accepted deterministic N-1 criterion and influenced by the probabilistic criterion (Pc). The D-P technique adds additional probabilistic risk information to the traditional deterministic N-1 criterion that is useful when making system reinforcement decisions. <p>The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that the D-P criterion and associated procedures for bulk electric system analysis can be effectively utilized in bulk electric system reliability assessment. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for composite generation and transmission system expansion planning.

Bulk electric system reliability assessment is an important activity in both vertically integrated and unbundled electric power utilities. The conventional deterministic N-1 criterion normally used in bulk electric system planning does not respond to the probabilistic factors that influence the reliability of the system and is a rigid criterion. New assessment procedures are therefore required that combine the traditional deterministic approach with probabilistic perspectives to provide a responsive planning criterion.<p>This research work introduces the concept of a joint deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) criterion for bulk electric system planning using a previously developed software package designated as MECORE. The D-P concept presented is a deterministic framework that incorporates a probabilistic criterion. This research examines the application of the conventional deterministic N-1, the basic probabilistic and the D-P criteria to two test systems. The studies show that the D-P approach is driven by the accepted deterministic N-1 criterion and influenced by the probabilistic criterion (Pc). The D-P technique adds additional probabilistic risk information to the traditional deterministic N-1 criterion that is useful when making system reinforcement decisions. <p>The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that the D-P criterion and associated procedures for bulk electric system analysis can be effectively utilized in bulk electric system reliability assessment. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for composite generation and transmission system expansion planning.

"The intent of this Thesis is to study the potential of distributed resources to increase the efficacy of the electric system without decreasing the efficiency of the system. Distributed resources (DR) are technologies that provide an increase in power or a decrease in load on the distribution system. An example of DR is a storage device that uses electricity during low use periods to store energy and then converts the stored energy to power during high use periods. The energy storage being studied is for the purpose of peak shaving or the ability to shift small amounts of load to a more optimum time. In particular the concept of load curve leveling is explored. DR options are studied to determine how size, location, and storage losses impact the overall system efficacy and efficiency. This includes impacts on system losses, capacity utilization, and energy costs."

Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar as principais alterações no modelo institucional do setor elétrico brasileiro, ocorridas a partir de 1995, apresentando as justificativas das transformações, algumas vezes radicais, no modo de funcionamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro. Objetiva-se, com a realização deste trabalho, possibilitar uma melhor compreensão das principais alterações, relacionando-as com o contexto da história do setor elétrico brasileiro. Com o objetivo de resgatar a operacionalidade do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, foi implementado em meados dos anos 90 o Projeto RE-SEB Projeto de Reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, focado no aumento da capacidade de expansão do porque gerador e na atração de investimentos privados, garantindo-se a eficiência do processo via estimulo da competição. Vale ressaltar que o modelo RE-SEB serviu de base para o modelo vigente, concretizado em Lei no ano de 2004. O principal resultado da primeira etapa de mudanças (Projeto RESEB) foi a criação do Mercado Atacadista de Energia Elétrica, ambiente virtual de comercialização de energia. Nos anos de 2001 e 2002 ocorreu o racionamento de energia elétrica, que impactou profundamente o modelo institucional. Na verdade, esta crise serviu para abrir os olhos da sociedade e do setor para a necessidade de melhorias adicionais àquelas que já se haviam processado, tornando claras as lacunas que o Projeto RE-SEB não havia logrado preencher. Nesse contexto, com a entrada de um novo governo, em 2003, o setor elétrico passou por uma nova reformulação e foi instituído um novo arcabouço legal com o objetivo de adaptar o modelo antigo ao objetivo desse governo, além de incorporar as lições aprendidas no período de racionamento. / This work has the objective of presenting the main changes in the Brazilian electrical sector institutional model, stating the whole environment and the reasons that motivated the deep changes occurred since 1995, strongly influencing the operation of the Brazilian Electrical System. It is expected that after this work it would be possible to get a better comprehension of these amendments, relating them to the context Electrical Sector history in Brazil. In order to recover the financial and expansion feasibility of the Brazilian Electric System, it was implemented the Project RE-SEB - Restructuring Project of the Brazilian Electric System in the mid of the 90, aiming at increasing the system capacity expansion, improving the appeal for private investments in efficient way, by stimulation the competition. This first stage of the sector reform has been the basis for the current model. The main result of the RE-SEB project was the creation of the Wholesale Electric Energy Market, a virtual environment for the trade in energy. In 2001 and 2002, it was necessary to rationing the electricity market, which deeply impacted the institutional model. In fact, the crisis was essential to open the eyes of society and industry to the need of further improvements, making clear the gaps that the Project RE-SEB has not filled in. In this context, the government beginning in 2003, established a new effort to improve the institutional model, giving rise to a new legal framework, taking advantage of the Re-SEB experience as well as incorporating the lessons learned during the period of rationing.

O Estado do Pará é o quarto produtor e um grande exportador de energia elétrica no Brasil. Além disso, ele possui um elevado potencial energético para a geração de eletricidade a partir das fontes energéticas renováveis, com destaque para o potencial hidrelétrico, que está estimado em 61.096 MW. Paradoxalmente, em 2003, cerca de 27% da população paraense ou 1,8 milhão de habitantes não tinham acesso ao serviço público de energia elétrica. O atendimento elétrico deficiente nesse Estado é conseqüência da interação de oito elementos: fisiografia adversa, expansão demográfica acelerada, maximização dos lucros no fornecimento de eletricidade, crise econômico-financeira da Centrais Elétricas do Pará (CELPA), preferência pelo modelo de atendimento elétrico centralizado, elevados custos e tarifas da energia elétrica, omissão e ineficiência do poder público e descaso para com a eletrificação rural, que criaram um contexto que tem potencializado a dinâmica excludente do sistema elétrico no território paraense. Através de observações e análises sobre esse sistema e suas interações, busca-se compreender como cada um desses elementos tem dificultado a elevação dos índices de atendimento elétrico no Pará, com o objetivo de propor diretrizes para facilitar o acesso da população paraense ao serviço público de energia elétrica. As análises desenvolvidas nesta pesquisa mostram que a universalização na zona rural será problemática nesse Estado. Para que as políticas de atendimento elétrico tenham êxito em elevar os índices de atendimento elétrico para níveis satisfatórios no menor tempo possível, elas precisam minimizar ou eliminar os efeitos dos elementos anteriormente mencionados. Entende-se que a criação de uma instituição federal (agência), com atuação descentralizada nas unidades da federação, para promover a universalização do serviço público de energia elétrica na zona rural, é indispensável. / The State of Pará is the fourth largest generator and a large electricity exporter in Brazil. Besides, it has a high energy potential for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources, with emphasis for the hydroelectric potential that is estimated at 61,096 MW. Paradoxically, in 2003, about 27% of the population of that state ? nearly 1.8 million people ? did not have access to electricity public service. The non-supply of electricity in Pará is a consequence of the interaction of eight elements: adverse physiography, accelerated demographic expansion, maximization of the profits in electricity public service, Centrais Elétricas do Pará ? CELPA\'s economic-financial crisis, preference for the model of centralized electricity supply, high costs and prices of electricity, government\'s omission and inefficiency, and negligence with respect to rural electrification. Those elements created a context that has been impeding the access to electricity public service of a part of the population. Through observations and analyses on the electric system of that state and their interactions, it seeks to understand as each one of those elements makes difficult the increase of electricity supply indexes and to propose guidelines for facilitating the access to electricity public service of the paraense population. The analyses developed in this study show that the large problem for universalizing in that state is in the rural area. So that electricity supply policies have success in increasing electricity supply indexes for acceptable levels in the smallest possible time in the paraense territory, they must to minimize or to eliminate the effects of the elements previously mentioned. That can be reached ? in a more efficient way ? through the establishment of an agency for universalizing electricity public service in the rural area.

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Agradecemos a compreensão. on 2017-02-14T12:29:53Z (GMT) / Submitted by SONIAMARA MARANHO null (marmab13@gmail.com) on 2017-02-14T17:45:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISERTAÇÃO - Modelo Energético.pdf: 1519694 bytes, checksum: d2ea46469710885abf59703c514ae295 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-02-16T17:13:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 maranho_s_me_ippri.pdf: 1519694 bytes, checksum: d2ea46469710885abf59703c514ae295 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-16T17:13:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 maranho_s_me_ippri.pdf: 1519694 bytes, checksum: d2ea46469710885abf59703c514ae295 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-26 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Este estudo analisa como foi conduzido o processo de privatização e reorganização do setor elétrico brasileiro entre os anos de 1995 a 2002, durante o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Busca entender qual era o modelo de concessões, interligação, tarifas, geração, transmissão, distribuição e comercialização da energia antes e depois da privatização, e quais foram as principais mudanças ocorridas. Discute qual foi o novo papel do Estado brasileiro no processo de privatização da energia vinculado ao capital internacional na reorganização e no controle deste patrimônio do setor elétrico, no qual várias empresas internacionais passaram a controlar grande parte das ações de empresas que até então eram organizadas e financiadas pelo Estado e construídas com esforço do povo brasileiro. Mostra como leis, agências, conselhos, associações e comitês técnicos para estudos de mercado foram criadas pelo Estado brasileiro para servir ao capital. Busca, também, entender como se consolidou a disputa pela base de elevada produtividade que é a hidroeletricidade e, ao mesmo tempo, como a estrutura industrial da energia foi combinada às estruturas do sistema financeiro, aumentando a exploração da força de trabalho no setor e transferindo lucros elevados dos consumidores cativos. Além disso, esse estudo discute como a tarifa de energia passou a ser a principal forma de sustentação do novo modelo que se instalou com as privatizações. Nos três capítulos desta dissertação foi analisada a história e a apropriação privada da produção social da indústria de energia pelo capital internacional, por meio do Estado brasileiro. Analisa-se, também, o processo de implantação do neoliberalismo e as privatizações na disputa intercapitalista mais ampla pela energia no Brasil, e assim como as consequências desse modelo para a sociedade brasileira, quais foram os seus resultados para os trabalhadores, atingidos por barragens, consumidores, acionistas e rentistas, bem como a posição que os mesmos ocuparam nesse processo. / This study was conducted to analyze the process of privatization and reorganization of the Brazilian electric sector between the years 1995 until 2002, during the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Hereby I research the model of concessions, interconnection, fees, generation, transmission, distribution and commercialization of energy before and after privatization, and what were the main changes. This work debates the new role of the state within the energy's sector privatization process and it's connection with the international capital in the reorganization and control of the assets of the electricity sector of which several international companies took control over the majority of shares of companies that were organized and funded by the Brazilian State. It seeks to demonstrate how laws, agencies, boards, associations and technical committees for market research were created by the state to serve for the private capital; consolidating the dispute over the natural base of high productivity as hydroelectricity and at the same time as the industrial structure of energy was combined with the financial system structures, increasing the exploitation of the workforce in the sector and transferring high profits to captive consumers. Also, discuss how the energy fee has become and important element for the new privatized model. Within the three chapters of this dissertation the history and the private appropriation of the social production of the energy industry by international capitalists, through the Brazilian state is analyzed. It also examinates the neoliberalism deployment process and privatization in the wider inter-capitalist competition for energy in Brazil, as well as the implications of this model for the Brazilian society, what were the results for workers affected by dams, consumers, shareholders and rentiers, and the position thereof in this process. / CNPq: 370389/2015-8

Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar as principais alterações no modelo institucional do setor elétrico brasileiro, ocorridas a partir de 1995, apresentando as justificativas das transformações, algumas vezes radicais, no modo de funcionamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro. Objetiva-se, com a realização deste trabalho, possibilitar uma melhor compreensão das principais alterações, relacionando-as com o contexto da história do setor elétrico brasileiro. Com o objetivo de resgatar a operacionalidade do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, foi implementado em meados dos anos 90 o Projeto RE-SEB Projeto de Reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, focado no aumento da capacidade de expansão do porque gerador e na atração de investimentos privados, garantindo-se a eficiência do processo via estimulo da competição. Vale ressaltar que o modelo RE-SEB serviu de base para o modelo vigente, concretizado em Lei no ano de 2004. O principal resultado da primeira etapa de mudanças (Projeto RESEB) foi a criação do Mercado Atacadista de Energia Elétrica, ambiente virtual de comercialização de energia. Nos anos de 2001 e 2002 ocorreu o racionamento de energia elétrica, que impactou profundamente o modelo institucional. Na verdade, esta crise serviu para abrir os olhos da sociedade e do setor para a necessidade de melhorias adicionais àquelas que já se haviam processado, tornando claras as lacunas que o Projeto RE-SEB não havia logrado preencher. Nesse contexto, com a entrada de um novo governo, em 2003, o setor elétrico passou por uma nova reformulação e foi instituído um novo arcabouço legal com o objetivo de adaptar o modelo antigo ao objetivo desse governo, além de incorporar as lições aprendidas no período de racionamento. / This work has the objective of presenting the main changes in the Brazilian electrical sector institutional model, stating the whole environment and the reasons that motivated the deep changes occurred since 1995, strongly influencing the operation of the Brazilian Electrical System. It is expected that after this work it would be possible to get a better comprehension of these amendments, relating them to the context Electrical Sector history in Brazil. In order to recover the financial and expansion feasibility of the Brazilian Electric System, it was implemented the Project RE-SEB - Restructuring Project of the Brazilian Electric System in the mid of the 90, aiming at increasing the system capacity expansion, improving the appeal for private investments in efficient way, by stimulation the competition. This first stage of the sector reform has been the basis for the current model. The main result of the RE-SEB project was the creation of the Wholesale Electric Energy Market, a virtual environment for the trade in energy. In 2001 and 2002, it was necessary to rationing the electricity market, which deeply impacted the institutional model. In fact, the crisis was essential to open the eyes of society and industry to the need of further improvements, making clear the gaps that the Project RE-SEB has not filled in. In this context, the government beginning in 2003, established a new effort to improve the institutional model, giving rise to a new legal framework, taking advantage of the Re-SEB experience as well as incorporating the lessons learned during the period of rationing.

Electric power systems are experiencing dramatic changes with respect to structure, operation and regulation and are facing increasing pressure due to environmental and societal constraints. Bulk electric system reliability is an important consideration in power system planning, design and operation particularly in the new competitive environment. A wide range of methods have been developed to perform bulk electric system reliability evaluation. Theoretically, sequential Monte Carlo simulation can include all aspects and contingencies in a power system and can be used to produce an informative set of reliability indices. It has become a practical and viable tool for large system reliability assessment technique due to the development of computing power and is used in the studies described in this thesis. The well-being approach used in this research provides the opportunity to integrate an accepted deterministic criterion into a probabilistic framework. This research work includes the investigation of important factors that impact bulk electric system adequacy evaluation and security constrained adequacy assessment using the well-being analysis framework.<p> Load forecast uncertainty is an important consideration in an electrical power system. This research includes load forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electric system reliability assessment and the effects on system, load point and well-being indices and reliability index probability distributions are examined. There has been increasing worldwide interest in the utilization of wind power as a renewable energy source over the last two decades due to enhanced public awareness of the environment. Increasing penetration of wind power has significant impacts on power system reliability, and security analyses become more uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of wind power. The effects of wind power additions in generating and bulk electric system reliability assessment considering site wind speed correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

Electric power systems are experiencing dramatic changes with respect to structure, operation and regulation and are facing increasing pressure due to environmental and societal constraints. Bulk electric system reliability is an important consideration in power system planning, design and operation particularly in the new competitive environment. A wide range of methods have been developed to perform bulk electric system reliability evaluation. Theoretically, sequential Monte Carlo simulation can include all aspects and contingencies in a power system and can be used to produce an informative set of reliability indices. It has become a practical and viable tool for large system reliability assessment technique due to the development of computing power and is used in the studies described in this thesis. The well-being approach used in this research provides the opportunity to integrate an accepted deterministic criterion into a probabilistic framework. This research work includes the investigation of important factors that impact bulk electric system adequacy evaluation and security constrained adequacy assessment using the well-being analysis framework.<p> Load forecast uncertainty is an important consideration in an electrical power system. This research includes load forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electric system reliability assessment and the effects on system, load point and well-being indices and reliability index probability distributions are examined. There has been increasing worldwide interest in the utilization of wind power as a renewable energy source over the last two decades due to enhanced public awareness of the environment. Increasing penetration of wind power has significant impacts on power system reliability, and security analyses become more uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of wind power. The effects of wind power additions in generating and bulk electric system reliability assessment considering site wind speed correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

Orientador: João Márcio Mendes Pereira / Resumo: Este estudo analisa como foi conduzido o processo de privatização e reorganização do setor elétrico brasileiro entre os anos de 1995 a 2002, durante o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Busca entender qual era o modelo de concessões, interligação, tarifas, geração, transmissão, distribuição e comercialização da energia antes e depois da privatização, e quais foram as principais mudanças ocorridas. Discute qual foi o novo papel do Estado brasileiro no processo de privatização da energia vinculado ao capital internacional na reorganização e no controle deste patrimônio do setor elétrico, no qual várias empresas internacionais passaram a controlar grande parte das ações de empresas que até então eram organizadas e financiadas pelo Estado e construídas com esforço do povo brasileiro. Mostra como leis, agências, conselhos, associações e comitês técnicos para estudos de mercado foram criadas pelo Estado brasileiro para servir ao capital. Busca, também, entender como se consolidou a disputa pela base de elevada produtividade que é a hidroeletricidade e, ao mesmo tempo, como a estrutura industrial da energia foi combinada às estruturas do sistema financeiro, aumentando a exploração da força de trabalho no setor e transferindo lucros elevados dos consumidores cativos. Além disso, esse estudo discute como a tarifa de energia passou a ser a principal forma de sustentação do novo modelo que se instalou com as privatizações. Nos três capítulos desta dissertação foi analisada a história... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Mestre