This dissertation investigates the public response to HIV/AIDS in Sweden in the 1980s and early 1990s. The analysis focuses on the National Commission on AIDS (NCA,“Aidsdelegationen”). The NCA was appointed by the government in 1985, led by the Minister of Social Affairs and mandated to initiate and coordinate the national response to the epidemic and in function until 1992. The dissertation’s theoretical framework is based on the understanding of an epidemic as a cultural and historical concept, emphasizing that health policy in the late twentieth century must be analyzed as a complex process of problematization.  The study includes four parts. The first part covers the years 1982 to 1985, an era characterized by small scale action, based mainly on voluntary initiatives with small resources. The second part examines the period 1985-1989, when the NCA formed an official national policy based on both strong legislation (enabling quarantine of recalcitrants, registration, contact tracing etc.) and massive nationwide information efforts (through mass media campaigns). This highly active phase was followed by a period of consolidation, from 1989 to 1992, examined in the third part of the study. This period included a new infectious disease act focused on HIV/AIDS as well as official campaigns with stronger focus on the individuals’ responsibility for their own health. In the last part, covering the years 1992-1996, I show how the HIV/AIDS problem was institutionalized as a disease and health topic alongside many others. The national campaigns continued through the 1990s, focusing on empowerment and individualization. As in many similar countries, the main aim of the Swedish strategy was to educate and encourage people to act with caution and responsibility towards themselves and their fellow citizens. In addition to this cooperation and inclusion approach, a strategy of contain and control was also implemented. This second strategy can, as I show, be explained by the strong connection made between HIV/AIDS and drug users. Through this connection, the Swedish drug policy had a decisive influence on the Swedish HIV/AIDS policy.

Veterinarians often perform controlled experiments in which they inoculate animals with infectious diseases. They then monitor the transmission process in infected animals. The aim of such experiments can be to assess vaccine effects. The fitting of individual-level models (ILMs) to the infectious disease data, typically achieved by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, can be computationally burdensome. Here, we want to see if a vaccination effect can be identified using simpler regression-type models rather than the complex infectious disease models. We examine the use of various logistic growth curve models, via a series of simulated experiments in which the underlying true model is a mechanistic model of infectious disease spread. We want to investigate whether a vaccination effect can be identified when only partial epidemic curves are observed, and to assess the performance of these models when experiments are run with various sets of observational times.

We study some Hölderian functional central limit theorems for the polygonal partial sum processes built on a first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process and its least squares residuals Innovations are i.i.d. centered and at least square-integrable innovations. Two types of models are considered. For the first type model we prove that the limiting process depends on Ornstein – Uhlenbeck one. In the second type model, the convergence to Brownian motion is established in Hölder space in terms of the rate of coefficient and the integrability of the residuals. We also investigate some epidemic change in the innovations of the first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process . We build the alpha-Hölderian uniform increments statistics based on the observations and on the least squares residuals to detect the short epidemic change in the process under consideration. Under the assumptions for innovations we find the limit of the statistics under null hypothesis, some conditions of consistency and we perform a test power analysis. / Disertacijoje nagrinėjami dalinių sumų laužčių procesai sudaryti iš pirmos eilės beveik nestacionaraus proceso bei jo mažiausių kvadratų liekanų. Inovacijos yra nepriklausomi, vienodai pasiskirstę ir bent kvadratu integruojami atsitiktiniai dydžiai su nuliniu vidurkiu. Įrodomos funkcinės ribinės teoremos šiems laužčių procesams Hiolderio erdvėje. Nagrinėjami du beveik nestacionaraus proceso atvejai. Vienu atveju įrodoma, kad ribinis procesas priklauso nuo Ornsteino–Uhlenbecko proceso. Kitu atveju, įrodomas konvergavimas į Brauno judesį Hiolderio erdvėje, atsižvelgiant į koeficiento divergavimo greitį bei inovacijų integruojamumą. Toliau nagrinėjamas epideminio pasikeitimo modelis beveik nestacionaraus pirmos eilės autoregresinio proceso inovacijoms. Nagrinėjami du modeliai. Iš stebėjimų bei liekanų konstruojama tolydžiųjų prieaugių alpha-Hiolderio statistika. Remiantis prielaidomis inovacijoms, randama statistikos ribinis procesas prie nulinės hipotezės, suderinamumo sąlygos, atliekama galios analizė.

Disertacijoje nagrinėjami dalinių sumų laužčių procesai sudaryti iš pirmos eilės beveik nestacionaraus proceso bei jo mažiausių kvadratų liekanų. Inovacijos yra nepriklausomi, vienodai pasiskirstę ir bent kvadratu integruojami atsitiktiniai dydžiai su nuliniu vidurkiu. Įrodomos funkcinės ribinės teoremos šiems laužčių procesams Hiolderio erdvėje. Nagrinėjami du beveik nestacionaraus proceso atvejai. Vienu atveju įrodoma, kad ribinis procesas priklauso nuo Ornsteino–Uhlenbecko proceso. Kitu atveju, įrodomas konvergavimas į Brauno judesį Hiolderio erdvėje, atsižvelgiant į koeficiento divergavimo greitį bei inovacijų integruojamumą. Toliau nagrinėjamas epideminio pasikeitimo modelis beveik nestacionaraus pirmos eilės autoregresinio proceso inovacijoms. Nagrinėjami du modeliai. Iš stebėjimų bei liekanų konstruojama tolydžiųjų prieaugių alpha-Hiolderio statistika. Remiantis prielaidomis inovacijoms, randama statistikos ribinis procesas prie nulinės hipotezės, suderinamumo sąlygos, atliekama galios analizė. / We study some Hölderian functional central limit theorems for the polygonal partial sum processes built on a first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process and its least squares residuals Innovations are i.i.d. centered and at least square-integrable innovations. Two types of models are considered. For the first type model we prove that the limiting process depends on Ornstein – Uhlenbeck one. In the second type model, the convergence to Brownian motion is established in Hölder space in terms of the rate of coefficient and the integrability of the residuals. We also investigate some epidemic change in the innovations of the first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process . We build the alpha-Hölderian uniform increments statistics based on the observations and on the least squares residuals to detect the short epidemic change in the process under consideration. Under the assumptions for innovations we find the limit of the statistics under null hypothesis, some conditions of consistency and we perform a test power analysis.

There are some new challenges in system administration and design to optimize the resource management for a cloud based application. Some applications demand stringent performance requirements (e.g. delay and jitter bounds), while some applications exhibit bursty (volatile) workloads. This thesis proposes an epidemic model inspired (and continuous time Markov Chain based) framework, which can reproduce workload volatility namely the "buzz effects" (when there is a sudden increase of a content popularity) of a Video on Demand (VoD) system. Two estimation procedures (heuristic and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based approach) have also been proposed in this work to calibrate the model against workload traces. Obtained model parameters from the calibration procedures reveal some interesting property of the model. Based on numerical simulations, precisions of both procedures have been analyzed, which show that both of them perform reasonably. However, the MCMC procedure outperforms the heuristic approach. This thesis also compares the proposed model with other existing models examining the goodness-of-fit of some statistical properties of real workload traces. Finally this work suggests a probabilistic resource provisioning approach based on a Large Deviation Principle (LDP). LDP statistically characterizes the buzz effects that causeextreme workload volatility. This analysis exploits the information obtained using the LDP of the VoD system for defining resource management policies. These policies may be of some interest to all stakeholders in the emerging context of cloud networking.

During the past decade, South Africa has become the country with the highest number of HIV/AIDS infections in the world. In the wake of the widely spread HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, hundreds of thousands of children are left parentless. Since limited research exists on the psycho-educational needs of children orphaned by AIDS in South Africa, the focus of this study was on their psycho-educational development. A literature study was conducted to investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa and its consequences for the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans. A qualitative investigation was undertaken and interviews were conducted with caregivers of AIDS orphans at two care centres in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The aim of the investigation was to identify the psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans as perceived by their caregivers. Moreover, the investigation also aimed at identifying factors that impede the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans, and to determine the extent to which these day care centres meet the psycho-educational needs of these orphans. The following psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans emerged from the investigation: - the need to socialise and communicate - the need to cope with parental death - the need for acceptance - the need for security and care - the need for love and belonging - the need to deal with negative emotions Physical and material needs were added to the above needs, since these were frequently mentioned during the course of the interviews. Factors that seriously impeded the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans were abuse and neglect. The investigation also revealed that the care centres were to a large extent able to meet a broad spectrum of these orphans’ psycho-educational needs, especially at the care centre where the AIDS orphans were able to sleep over and received the full-time attention caregivers. Since the extended family system can no longer fully carry the burden of hundreds of thousands of AIDS orphans in South Africa, care centres situated in the affected communities can offer a viable alternative to traditional models of care. The study emphasised the need for further research on the needs of AIDS orphans as well as increased support of AIDS orphans on local, provincial and national levels. / MEd (Learner support), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

During the past decade, South Africa has become the country with the highest number of HIV/AIDS infections in the world. In the wake of the widely spread HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, hundreds of thousands of children are left parentless. Since limited research exists on the psycho-educational needs of children orphaned by AIDS in South Africa, the focus of this study was on their psycho-educational development. A literature study was conducted to investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa and its consequences for the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans. A qualitative investigation was undertaken and interviews were conducted with caregivers of AIDS orphans at two care centres in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The aim of the investigation was to identify the psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans as perceived by their caregivers. Moreover, the investigation also aimed at identifying factors that impede the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans, and to determine the extent to which these day care centres meet the psycho-educational needs of these orphans. The following psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans emerged from the investigation: - the need to socialise and communicate - the need to cope with parental death - the need for acceptance - the need for security and care - the need for love and belonging - the need to deal with negative emotions Physical and material needs were added to the above needs, since these were frequently mentioned during the course of the interviews. Factors that seriously impeded the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans were abuse and neglect. The investigation also revealed that the care centres were to a large extent able to meet a broad spectrum of these orphans’ psycho-educational needs, especially at the care centre where the AIDS orphans were able to sleep over and received the full-time attention caregivers. Since the extended family system can no longer fully carry the burden of hundreds of thousands of AIDS orphans in South Africa, care centres situated in the affected communities can offer a viable alternative to traditional models of care. The study emphasised the need for further research on the needs of AIDS orphans as well as increased support of AIDS orphans on local, provincial and national levels. / MEd (Learner support), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

This thesis investigates several uses of simulation methods to understand and control pandemic influenza in urban settings. An agent-based simulation, which models pandemic spread in a large metropolitan area, is used for two main purposes: to identify the shape of the distribution of pandemic outcomes, and to test for the presence of complex relationships between public health policy responses and underlying pandemic characteristics. The usefulness of pandemic simulation as a tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs is critically evaluated through a rigorous comparison of three recent H1N1 vaccine cost-effectiveness studies. The potential for simulation methods to improve vaccine deployment is then demonstrated through a discrete-event simulation study of a mass immunization clinic.

This thesis investigates several uses of simulation methods to understand and control pandemic influenza in urban settings. An agent-based simulation, which models pandemic spread in a large metropolitan area, is used for two main purposes: to identify the shape of the distribution of pandemic outcomes, and to test for the presence of complex relationships between public health policy responses and underlying pandemic characteristics. The usefulness of pandemic simulation as a tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs is critically evaluated through a rigorous comparison of three recent H1N1 vaccine cost-effectiveness studies. The potential for simulation methods to improve vaccine deployment is then demonstrated through a discrete-event simulation study of a mass immunization clinic.

Thesis (Doctor of Philosophy)--Miami University, Dept. of Educational Leadership, 2009. / Title from second page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. Xx-Xx).