Embora não seja reconhecido como um nutriente essencial, o silício (Si) reduz a severidade de oídios em diversas espécies vegetais quando acumulado na parte aérea. Contudo, apesar deste efeito benéfico ser amplamente relatado na literatura, ainda pouco se sabe dos mecanismos envolvidos. Este estudo avaliou o efeito das aplicações foliar e radicular de silicato de potássio, uma importante fonte de Si solúvel, na severidade de oídio e na indução de mecanismos de defesa pós-infecção em meloeiro. Os efeitos na doença foram avaliados em plantas inoculadas artificialmente ou naturalmente mantidas em casa de vegetação através da mensuração da dinâmica da epidemia e de seus componentes. Os resultados indicaram que tanto aplicações foliares como radiculares de silicato de potássio reduziram a área abaixo da curva de progresso da doença em 65% e 73%, respectivamente, comparadas ao tratamento controle sem aplicação. Tal redução foi resultado da alteração dos seguintes componentes epidemiológicos: eficiência de infecção, taxa de expansão da colônia, área da colônia, produção de conídios por área colonizada e taxa de progresso da epidemia. Contudo, a aplicação radicular foi mais eficiente que a foliar em atrasar o início da epidemia e em reduzir todos os componentes epidemiológicos, exceto a eficiência de infecção. A maior eficiência do silicato de potássio quando aplicado via raiz decorreu da maior concentração foliar do Si, a qual induziu uma antecipação (efeito priming) e um aumento da intensidade de expressão de mecanismos de defesa, fenômenos que não foram detectados no tratamento foliar. A aplicação radicular resultou na alteração de enzimas envolvidas na produção e catabolismo de espécies reativas de oxigênio, onde foi verificado aumento na atividade das enzimas superóxido dismutases e redução na atividade das enzimas catalases, principalmente nas primeiras 96 horas após a inoculação. O efeito priming também foi observado para as enzimas peroxidases, 1,3(4)-glucanases e quitinases e para o acúmulo de compostos fenólicos. Neste tratamento também ocorreu aumento na concentração de lignina em resposta à inoculação, contudo a concentração de malondialdeído foi reduzida, indicando que o Si aplicado nesta forma aliviou o estresse oxidativo sobre os lipídeos das membranas celulares da planta. Por outro lado, quando o silicato de potássio foi aplicado via foliar apenas a deposição de lignina aumentou comparado ao tratamento controle. Assim, depreende-se que os mecanismos de atuação do Si no controle da doença quando aplicado nesta forma, são distintos e envolvem, segundo a literatura, a formação de uma barreira físicoquímica sobre a cutícula resultado da polimerização do silicato de potássio. Tomados em conjunto, os resultados deste estudo evidenciaram que o Si tem papel ativo na modulação do sistema de defesa da planta, mas que sua efetividade depende de sua presença na forma solúvel no interior da planta, obtido por meio de sua absorção via raiz. Não obstante, os efeitos do silicato de potássio aqui relatados permitem concluir que a incorporação do produto a um sistema de manejo integrado, principalmente se fornecido via sistema radicular, terá efeitos positivos tanto na redução da epidemia de oídio como no meio ambiente, neste caso em função da redução no uso de fungicidas. / Silicon (Si) is not considered an essential nutrient of plants, but when it accumulates in the shoots it reduces powdery mildew severity on several species. However, despite this beneficial effect being widely reported in the literature, the mechanisms involved are still little understood. In this study, the effects of both foliar and root applications of potassium silicate, an important soluble source of Si, on the severity of powdery mildew and on the induction of postinfection defense mechanisms of melon were evaluated. Treatment effects were assessed by measuring the epidemics dynamic and its components in both artificially and naturally inoculated plants kept in the greenhouse. Results showed that the area under the disease progress curve was reduced by 65% and 73%, respectively by foliar and root application of potassium silicate, compared to control plants that were not supplied with potassium silicate. This effect accrued from the reduction of the infection efficiency, colony expansion rate, colony area, conidia production per colonized area and the epidemic progress rate. However, root application was more effective than foliar application on both delaying the onset of the epidemic and reducing most epidemic components, except for the infection efficiency. The greater efficiency of potassium silicate in controlling the disease when supplied via roots by irrigation correlated with higher foliar concentrations of Si which induced both a priming effect and increased expression of key defense responses. These phenomena, however, were not observed when potassium silicate was sprayed on leaves. Root supply of Si altered the activity of enzymes involved in the production and catabolism of reactive oxygen species, resulting in the increased activity of superoxide dismutase and reduced activity of catalases mainly in the first 96 hours after inoculation. Root application also primed the activity of peroxidases, 1,3(4)-glucanases, chitinases and the accumulation of phenolic compounds. Lignin concentration also increased in response to inoculation while the concentration of malondialdeide reduced indicating that Si decreased the oxidation of lipids of the plant cell membranes. In contrast, when Si was sprayed on the leaves, only an increase in lignin deposition was observed compared to the control treatment. Thus, it appears that the mechanisms of powdery mildew control in this case are distinct and, according to literature data, could include the formation of a physical-chemical barrier on the cuticle as the result of potassium silicate polymerization. Taken together, the results showed that Si plays an active role in modulating the host defense system, but only when present in the soluble form inside the plant which can be achieved by root uptake. Nevertheless, the effects of potassium silicate reported here allowed concluding that the inclusion of this compound in an integrated management system, mainly if supplied via roots, will render positive effects both on reducing the disease in melon plants and on the environment, in this case through reducing the use of fungicides.

La modélisation des maladies infectieuses représente un outil important pour évaluer la vulnérabilité d'une population à l'introduction d'un nouveau agent pathogène. La possibilité d’enregistrer les contacts responsables de la propagation des maladies représente à la fois une ressource et un défi pour les modèles épidémiques. En particulier, l'interaction entre la dynamique des maladies et l'évolution dans le temps des structures de contact influence la façon dont les agents pathogènes se propagent, en changeant les conditions qui mènent à une flambée épidémique (seuil épidémique). Jusqu'à maintenant, les chercheurs n'ont caractérisé le seuil épidémique sur des structures de contact qui évoluent dans le temps que dans des contextes spécifiques. En utilisant un formalisme multi-couches, nous calculons analytiquement le seuil épidémique sur un réseau temporel générique. Nous utilisons cette méthode pour évaluer l'impact de la résolution temporelle et la durée du réseau sur l'estimation du seuil. De plus, grâce à cette méthode, nous évaluons la vulnérabilité globale de différents systèmes à l'introduction d'agents pathogènes, et en particulier nous analysons les réseaux de mouvements des bovins. Les données de contact souvent ne sont pas disponible en temps réel, et cela limite notre capacité de prévision. Pour répondre à ça, nous développons une méthodologie numérique pour prédire le risque épidémique ciblé, qui repose uniquement sur les données de contact passées. Notre travail fournit de nouvelles méthodologies pour évaluer et prédire le risque associé à un agent pathogène émergent, à la fois à l'échelle de la population et en ciblant des hôtes spécifiques. / Infectious disease modeling represents a powerful tool for assessing the vulnerability of a population to the introduction of a new infectious pathogen. The increased availability of highly resolved data tracking host interactions is making epidemic models potentially increasingly accurate. Integrating into them all the features emerging from these data, however, still represents a challenge. In particular, the interaction between disease dynamics and the time evolution of contact structures has been shown to impact the way pathogens spread, changing the conditions that lead to the wide-spreading regime, as encoded in epidemic threshold. Up to now researchers have characterized the epidemic threshold on time evolving contact structures only in specific settings. Using a multilayer formalism, we analytically compute the epidemic threshold on a generic temporal network, accounting for several different disease features. We use this methodology to assess the impact of time resolution and network duration on the estimation of the threshold. Then, thanks to it, we assess the global vulnerability of different systems to pathogen introduction, and in particular we analyze the networks of cattle trade movements Data collection strategies often inform us only about past network configurations, and that limits our prediction capabilities. We face this by developing a data-driven methodology for predicting targeted epidemic that relies only past contact data. Our work provides new methodologies for assessing and predicting the risk associated to an emerging pathogen, both at the population scale and targeting specific hosts.

Les travaux réalisés dans cette thèse abordent certaines questions relatives à la dynamique des populations dans un environnement aléatoire. L'environnement aléatoire est décrit par un processus Markovien à valeurs dans un espace fini et qui, en appliquant certaines forces sur le choix des taux vitaux, dirigera la dynamique de la population. Lorsque la dynamique est modélisée par un processus de naissance et de mort, on répondra à la question : quand est-ce qu'on a une extinction presque sûre d'une population ? (Bacaër and EdDarraz, 2014). Lorsque la dynamique est déterministe, nous avons démontré un résultat bien connu pour la taille finale d'une épidémie (Ed-Darraz and Khaladi, 2015) Bacaër N, Ed-Darraz A (2014) On linear birth-and-death processes in a random environment. J Math Biol. 69 (1) :73-90 Ed-Darraz A, Khaladi M (2015) On the final epidemic size in random environnement, Math. Biosc 266 : 10-14. / This thesis addresses some issues associated with population dynamics in random environment. Random environment is described by a Markov process with values in a finite space and which, involve certain forces on the choice of vital rates, will lead the population dynamics. When the dynamic is modeled by a birth and death process, we will answer the question : When almost surely extinction settled ? (Bacaër and Ed-Darraz, 2014). In (Ed-Darraz and Khaladi, 2015) we are interested to the final size of an epidemic in random environment. J Math Biol. 69 (1) :73-90 Ed-Darraz A, Khaladi M (2015) On the final epidemic size in random environnement, Math. Biosc 266 : 10-14.

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A Disruption Tolerant Network (DTN) is a sparse network where connectivity is regulated by the proximity of mobile nodes. Connections are sporadic and the delivery rate is closely related to node movement. As network resources often are limited in such settings, it is useful to monitor the network in order to make more efficient communication decisions. This study investigates existing routing protocols and monitoring tools for DTN that best cope with the requirements of a tactical military network. A model is proposed to estimate source to destination delay in DTN. This model is evaluated in a Java-based software simulator called The ONE. In order to match the tactical military environment, two scenarios are constructed. The squad scenario simulates the formation movement pattern of several squads and the hierarchical communication scheme that is maintained in a military context. The other scenario simulates a convoy line movement of a military group during transportation. The results of this study show that the proposed mechanism can improve delivery rate and reduce network overhead in settings with strict buffer limitations. The estimation worked best in scenarios that contained some patterns of movement or communication. These patterns are resembled in the model's collected data and the model can provide the user with rough estimates of end-to-end delays in the network. Primary use of this model has been to reduce number of old messages in the network, but other applications like anomaly detection are also discussed in this work. / Ett avbrottstolerant nätverk (DTN) är ett glest nät där konnektiviteten avgörs av närheten bland de rörliga noderna i nätverket. Avbrotten i ett sådant nät förekommer ofta och sporadiskt. Eftersom nätverksresurserna oftast är begränsade i sådana sammanhang, så är det lämpligt att övervaka nätverket för att göra det möjligt att fatta mer effektiva kommunikationsbeslut. Det här arbetet undersöker olika routingalgoritmer och övervakningsvektyg för DTN med hänsyn till de krav som ställs av ett taktiskt nät. En modell för att uppskatta fördröjningen från källa till destination är framtagen i arbetet. Modellen är utvärderad med hjälp av en Javabaserad mjukvarusimulator som heter The ONE. För att bäst representera den miljö som uppstår i militära sammanhang är två scenarion framtagna. Det första är ett truppscenario där nodernar rör sig i fromationer och nättrafiken följer den hierarkiska modellen som används i militär kommunikation. Det andra scenariot är ett konvojscenario där enheter marcherar på led. Resultaten från denna studie visar att den föreslagna modellen kan öka andelen levererade meddelanden och minska nätverksbelastningen i en miljö där bufferstorleken hos noderna är begränsad. Uppskattningen visade sig fungera bäst i scenarion som innehöll någon form av mönster bland nodernas rörelse eller deras kommunikation. Dessa mönster återspeglas i modellens insamlade data och modellen kan förse användaren med en grov estimering av slutfördröjningen till alla destinationer i nätet. Modellen har i huvudsak använts till att minska antalet gamla meddelanden i nätet, men arbetet berör även andra användningsområden som anomalidetektion.

This dissertation presents a data-driven computational epidemic framework to simulate disease epidemics at global mass gatherings. The annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia is used to demonstrate the simulation and analysis of various disease transmission scenarios throughout the different stages of the event from the arrival to the departure of international participants. The proposed agent-based epidemic model efficiently captures the demographic, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity at each stage of the global event of Hajj. Experimental results indicate the substantial impact of the demographic and mobility patterns of the heterogeneous population of pilgrims on the progression of the disease spread in the different stages of Hajj. In addition, these simulations suggest that the differences in the spatial and temporal settings in each stage can significantly affect the dynamic of the disease. Finally, the epidemic simulations conducted at the different stages in this dissertation illustrate the impact of the differences between the duration of each stage in the event and the length of the infectious and latent periods. This research contributes to a better understanding of epidemic modeling in the context of global mass gatherings to predict the risk of disease pandemics caused by associated international travel. The computational modeling and disease spread simulations in global mass gatherings provide public health authorities with powerful tools to assess the implication of these events at a different scale and to evaluate the efficacy of control strategies to reduce their potential impacts.

My diploma thesis deals with a question of when and where it is possible to seek for origins of columns, questions like why were Our Lady, Trinity and Saints' columns built in Europe and what was the cause of plaque epidemic and its results in Europe are answered. The main part of my diploma thesis focuses on places where these sculptures are situated. The zone is defined by the formal Hradec Králové division and by the town Rychnov nad Kněžnou. The author of this diploma thesis compares his knowledge with works of other authors. In the supplement, the columns are depicted including the map of their placement in Hradec Králové District and in Rychnov nad Kněžnou.

Classical Continuous System Simulation (CSS) is restricted to modelling continuous flows, and therefore, cannot correctly realise a conceptual model with discrete objects. The development of Full Potential CSS solves this problem by (1) handling discrete quantities as discrete and continuous matter as continuous, (2) preserving the sojourn time distribution of a stage, (3) implementing attributes correctly, and (4) describing different types of uncertainties in a proper way. In order to apply Full Potential CSS a new software, StochSD, has been developed. This thesis evaluates StochSD's ability to model Full Potential CSS, where the points 1-4 above are included. As a test model a well-defined conceptual epidemic model, which includes all aspects of Full Potential CSS, was chosen. The study was performed by starting with a classical SIR model and then stepwise add the different aspects of the Conceptual Model. The effects of each step were demonstrated in terms of size and duration of the epidemic. Finally, the conceptual model was also realised as an Agent Based Model (ABM). The results from 10 000 replications each of the CSS and ABM models were compared and no statistical differences could be confirmed. The conclusion is that StochSD passed the evaluation.

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