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Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS) / In line with neoclassical economic growth propositions that outward-orientation fosters economic growth, since independence from Britain in 1964 the Government of Malawi has placed international trade at the centre of its economic development agenda. In spite of this theoretical affirmation of the trade-growth relationship, some empirical studies that have been done both in the country and abroad show contrary results. This prompted this study to be undertaken with the aim of assessing the impact of exports and imports on economic growth in Malawi from 1970 to 2010.This study has used a neoclassic economic growth model containing gross domestic product, exports, imports, capital and labour force as variables of analysis. After collecting annual time series data on the variables for the period 1970 to 2010 from the World Bank online statistical data base, Ordinary Least Squares regression and several econometric tests were run on the model to ensure robust and accurate results. Statistical accuracy of the findings was further cemented by use of the 5 percent level of significance. Exports were found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on the country’s economic growth, while imports had a negative and insignificant influence. Similarly, capital and labour force showed a positive effect on economic growth even though the capital’s effect was statistically insignificant. Nevertheless, the study also strongly confirmed the presence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables. The above results strongly suggest that Malawi should continue with its export-led economic growth strategies such as the Economic Recovery Plan (ERP) and the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MDGS). However, if the two economic development plans are to bear fruit this study strongly urges Malawi to consider diversifying its economy away from primary export production and instead embark on value-addition. Furthermore, the country should not only reduce the importation of consumer goods in favour of capital goods, but also improve the quality of the labour force and capital formation, if Malawi is to realise its economic development and poverty alleviation aspirations.

Submitted by Fabielle Cheuczuk (fabielle.cheuczuk@unioeste.br) on 2017-11-30T12:47:57Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Keli_Prezzotto_Machado 2017.pdf: 909609 bytes, checksum: a65f2ab12d77f2ed7e3947dedc7f9caf (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-30T12:47:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Keli_Prezzotto_Machado 2017.pdf: 909609 bytes, checksum: a65f2ab12d77f2ed7e3947dedc7f9caf (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-23 / The causes of economic growth, as well as the need for international trade between countries, have long been discussed. The factors that aid growth have changed according to each economic school. Economic growth is considered to be measured through GDP, so some jobs use exports as a possible source of consistent growth in the long run. In this sense, it was proposed to verify the role played by exports in terms of the acceleration of Brazilian economic growth? In order to answer this question, this study aims to analyze whether exports are preponderant to the economic growth of Brazil in the period from 1975 to 2017. For this purpose, we will use the Export-led-growth (ELG) hypothesis, which Exports boosts economic growth. Using time series data of the GDP and exports variables, the adopted econometric procedures were the unit root test to test the stationarity, Johansen cointegration test to verify the existence of cointegration between the variables, and the Granger causality test to verify The causality. The main results suggest the absence of cointegration and the bias of the variables for the analysis period. / As causas do crescimento econômico, bem como a necessidade do comércio internacional entre os países, vem há muito tempo sendo discutidas. Os fatores que auxiliam no crescimento foram mudando de acordo com cada escola econômica. Considera-se que o crescimento econômico é mensurado através do PIB, da mesma forma, alguns trabalhos utilizam-se das exportações como sendo uma possível fonte de crescimento consistente no longo prazo. Nesse sentido, qual o papel desempenhado pelas exportações no que tange a aceleração do crescimento econômico brasileiro? Para responder este questionamento, este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar se as exportações são preponderantes para o crescimento econômico do Brasil no período de 1975 a 2017. Para tanto, utilizou-se da hipótese Export-led-growth (ELG), a qual verifica que as exportações impulsionam o crescimento econômico. Utilizandose dos dados de séries temporais das variáveis PIB e exportações, os procedimentos econométricos adotados foram o teste de raiz unitária para testar a estacionariedade, teste de cointegração de Johansen para verificar a existência de cointegração entre as variáveis, e o teste de causalidade de Granger para verificar a causalidade. Os principais resultados sugerem a ausência de cointegração e a bicausalidade no sentido de Granger entre as variáveis para o período de análise.

With an ever-increasing globalising world, trade is of most importance for developing countries to not fall behind and be outcompeted. Export-led growth theory states that one of the key determinants for economic growth is exports. This thesis aims to analyse the causal effects of exports on economic growth in the case of Brazil. Annual data from the World Bank’s database for the years 1990-2018 has been used. The variables included are GDP, exports, gross capital formation, FDI and labour force. This study puts the export-led growth theory in a Vector Error Correction – Granger Causality framework. As opposed to previous scholars’ findings, neither export-led growth nor growth-led export could be determined for Brazil.

本研究主要分為三大部份，分別針對中國大陸之經濟起飛、出口與國有企 業改革加以探討。研究結果顯示:一、依據 Tsiang S.C.之經濟起飛條件 判斷，中國大陸自1977年進入自力成長的經濟起飛階段。二、出口與經濟 成長間之關係 (一)利用出口與經濟成長間之定義關係(王春源，1983)檢 驗：出口擴張對於國民所得之貢獻率，在經改以後大幅提升且具較穩定 。 (二)利用 Feder(1982)之理論模型檢驗：中國大陸之出口部門與非出 口間之要素的社會邊際生產力存在明顯差異。至於中國大陸經濟成長來源 ，主要來自模型未考慮之其他變數與非出口部門資本的邊際生產力。 (三)依據本文之修正模型，實證結果顯示：影響中國大陸經濟成長之最主 要因素來自消費與投資。出口與經濟成長間之關係則出現「門檻效果」之 現象。三、造成國企不活之深層原因，主要是制度性因素所致，國有企業 在性質上只是「機關體」而非「企業體」。另據本文利用 Chow(1994)之 理論模型，模擬分析顯示：企業在市場經濟運行的效率，相對優於傳統計 劃經濟體制。因此，國企改革應謀求將「機關體」質變為經營目標單純化 之「企業體」，建立以市場為導向，以利潤為中心之企業制度。

論文摘要 本論文由兩篇獨立的文章所構成，第一篇文章從個體角度出發，探討臺灣產業出口與成長之間的關聯性；第二篇文章則以總體的角度，分析世界各主要國家經濟成長的型態(包括出口偏向型的成長與進口偏向型的成長)對該國貿易條件的影響。 長久以來，出口與產出之間的相互影響向來是廣受重視的議題。在國際經濟領域中，多數研究均專注於兩者間理論之建立，關於實證方面的探討並不多見，而個體角度來探討產業出口與成長之間的文獻更是稀少，以臺灣產業出口與成長之間因果關係為對象的研究則付之闕如。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功，但出口導向的影響範圍究竟擴及多少產業的效果仍不明朗，因此第一篇文章關心的重點，在於探討對我國的產業而言出口擴張是否是個有效的政策？而究竟出口導向和產出導向哪一種政策的效果較好，也是本文所關心的目標。 第二篇文章討論成長型態對貿易條件的影響。由於出口偏向型的成長會使本國願意以更多出口財來換取進口財，將會使本國出口財的國際價格相對下降，進而惡化本國的貿易條件，改善外國的貿易條件；反之，在進口偏向型成長的情況下，出口財的減少則會使本國貿易條件改善，外國貿易條件惡化。是以一國的經濟成長對該國貿易條件的影響，將取決於其生產可能曲線外移的方向。本文嘗試以八個工業化國家和七個開發中國家為對象，在加入成長偏向政策、物價、匯率、所得移轉、對外投資、貿易平衡、貿易開放程度等因素的考慮下，來驗證成長型態對其貿易條件的影響效果是否符合理論的規範。 / The purpose of first paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between exports and domestic production in 22 Taiwan main industries, using time series data for the period 1982:01~2002:07. Different from the previous literatures, this paper examines the relations by taking into account industrial data because we are wondering whether the causal links between exports and outputs still sustain in individual industry, and either export promotion or production-led policies are more effective for industrial production. Hence, three related topics will be discussed: to recognize the incidence of export promotion policy in Taiwan industries, to explore either export promotion or production-led policies is more effective for industrial production, and to detect whether all exportation-oriented industries would simultaneously support export promotion hypothesis. The findings of the econometric analysis employing Granger causality test do not have enough evidence to support that the proportion of exports to production is a necessary condition for generating export promotion. Nevertheless, this study suggests that production makes great influence on exports in Taiwan individual industry but the effects of exports on production is not so prevailing as we thought before. Therefore, the influence of production to exports in Taiwan industry is more prevalent than that of exports to outputs. The purpose of the second paper is to examine the impacts of growth types on terms of trade by making a comparison between 8 industrial countries and 7 developing countries (involving 3 NICs countries). This paper finds that the theories seems not be supported because evidence shows the occurrence of positive effects of export-biased growth to terms of trade are more prevalent than negative ones. Moreover, the empirical results of negative incidence shown by import-biased growth come into conflict with theories, and the impacts of import-biased growth on terms of trade are indefinite. In addition, most results reveals that export-biased growth and import-biased growth policies in industrial countries are invalid, and most results in NICs and developing countries are ambiguous while export-biased growth or import-biased growth policies are adopted. Furthermore, the empirical results reveal that income transferring have great or opposite influence in NICs and developing countries, and trade openness is advantageous to NICs and developing countries but is disadvantageous to developed ones.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics

<p>The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger&rsquo / s (1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables).</p>

The paper discusses the interactions of changes in income distribution and the accumulation dynamics in the post-Fordist accumulation regime in OECD countries, which is characterized by deregulated financial markets. The neoliberal mode of regulation came with a decisive shift in power relations at the expense of labor, which is clearly reflected in the fall of wage shares across OECD economies. The notion of a "finance-dominated" accumulation regime is proposed to highlight that financial developments crucially shape the pattern and the pace of accumulation. Financial globalization has relaxed balance of payment constraints and thereby allowed the build up of big international imbalances. The combination of real wage moderation and financial liberalization has led to different strategies (or at least outcomes) in different countries. While some countries (like the USA) exhibit a credit-fuelled consumption-driven growth model that comes with large current account deficits, others (like Germany and Japan) show an export-driven growth model with modest consumption growth and large current account surpluses. Overall the finance-dominated accumulation regime is characterized by a mediocre growth performance and by a high degree of fragility. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series