Orientador: Francisco Luiz Cazeiro Lopreato / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T05:53:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carmo_ManuelaSantosNunesdo_M.pdf: 1980853 bytes, checksum: d189a1eb096634c095526980a148be80 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: O estudo analisou a institucionalidade, o financiamento e o gasto executados pelo governo estadual em São Paulo, no período de 1997 a 2009, a partir de uma tipologia que dispõe as políticas sociais em (i) ensino básico, (ii) saúde e (iii) habitação e transporte público urbano. Considerando que a capacidade estadual de se financiar e realizar gastos é um indicativo de sua capacidade de implementar políticas, a avaliação mostrou que os aspectos relacionados à nova fiscalidade, introduzidos na década de 1990, restringiram o poder e o espaço de atuação da esfera estadual de desenvolver e ampliar programas em seu território. Nas áreas de saúde e educação básica, esta situação de fragilidade intensificou-se com o modelo de descentralização adotado a partir da Constituição de 1988, devido ao crescente peso da relação administrativa e financeira direta entre a esfera federal e os municípios que marginalizou o governo estadual. Este processo, contudo, não envolveu os setores de habitação e transporte público urbano, nos quais estados e municípios já vinham atuando desde antes da promulgação da Constituição de 1988 e das estratégias federais descentralizadoras da década de 1990, dando espaço à maior presença estadual na gestão destas políticas / Abstract: The study analyses institutional aspects, financing and spending carried by the state of Sao Paulo government during the period 1997 to 2009. The analisis is based on a typology that divides social policies in (i) education, (ii) health and (iii) housing and public transportation. Since state's ability to fund and undertake spending is indicative of state's ability to implement policies the aspects related to the new fical policy rules, introduced in the 1990s, restricted state's power to develop and expand public programs in its territory. In the areas of health and basic education policies, the decentralization model adopted by 1988's Constitution intensifies this situation, due to the financial and administrative relationship between the federal and municipal governments which marginalizes the state's sphere. However, this process did not involve housing and public transport, in which state governement and municipalities had already been acting before the 1988's Constitution and the federal decentralization strategies of the 1990s enabiling state government to manege these policies / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Gli studi sulla politica monetaria e fiscale suggeriscono che l'economia sommersa o informale è un potente cuscinetto in grado di assorbire i canali di trasmissione delle politiche macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro, sviluppiamo un modello DSGE con economia sommersa al fine di analizzarne l’impatto sui canali di trasmissione delle politiche monetarie e fiscali nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo. La tesi è organizzata in tre capitoli. Il primo capitolo cerca di esaminare gli effetti di trasmissione e l'efficacia della politica monetaria e di altri shock strutturali attraverso l’interazione con l’economia sommersa. Il nostro modello determina se la presenza di un'economia sommersa influisce sulle risposte dell'economia ufficiale e chiarisce anche i cambiamenti nel meccanismo di trasmissione all'interno di entrambi i settori. Il secondo capitolo descrive un nuovo modello DSGE keynesiano con economia sommersa e analizza il ruolo delle politiche fiscali sul ciclo economico aggregato. In questo capitolo, abbiamo cercato di chiarire se la presenza di un'economia sommersa riduca o incrementi l'effetto delle trasmissioni di politica fiscale. Abbiamo anche cercato di capire se le politiche fiscali possono essere utilizzate per stabilizzare l'economia in risposta agli shock. Nel terzo capitolo, studiamo l'interazione tra i consumatori e la presenza di un'economia sommersa focalizzandoci sugli shock della politica fiscale. L‘obiettivo è sapere se l'introduzione di un'economia sommersa indebolisca l'effetto amplificativo dei consumatori sul moltiplicatore fiscale. / Theoretical literature on monetary and fiscal policy have suggested that shadow economy or the informal sector is a powerful buffer which absorbs large proportions of the transmission channels of macroeconomic policies. We develop a theoretical DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate their impact on the transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in developing and emerging countries. The thesis is organised in three chapters as follows. Chapter one seeks to examine the transmission effects and efficacy of monetary policy and other structural shocks with the interaction of shadow economy. Our model determines whether the presence of shadow economy affects the responses of the official economy and also clarifies the changes in the transmission mechanism within both sectors. The second chapter describes a new Keynesian DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate business cycle. In this chapter, we sought to elucidate whether the presence of shadow economy dampens or amplifies the effect of fiscal policy transmissions. We further tried to understand whether fiscal policies can be used to stabilise the economy in response to shocks. In chapter three, we study the interplay of rule-of-thumb consumers and the presence of shadow economy focusing on fiscal policy disturbances. Our basic motivation is to know whether the incorporation of shadow economy weakens the amplifying effect of rule-of-thumb consumers on fiscal multipliers.

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Abstract The euro area consists of several small open, fairly heterogeneous economies. The establishment of this common currency area greatly changed the macroeconomic interdependency between its member countries. This thesis examines the fundamental macroeconomic linkages and spillover effects between the monetary union member countries with the focus on the phenomena associated with the countries’ openness to international trade. This doctoral thesis consists of three essays. The first essay examines the impact of the implementation of a monetary union on international economic fluctuations. The essay finds that the implementation reverses the expenditure-switching effects between goods produced inside the monetary union, and helps to stabilize economic fluctuations. The second essay examines the effects of openness to international trade on a small monetary union. The essay shows howmovements in the monetary union’s exchange rate stabilize output fluctuations inside the monetary union and reduce the need for fiscal stabilization. The third essay argues that, under a non-coordinated optimal fiscal policy, government spending should focus on the stabilization of a local output gap and inflation, while union-wide aggregate fluctuations should be stabilized by a common independent monetary policy. The essay also shows how a suboptimal monetary policy increases the spillover effects of countryspecific shocks. / Tiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan rahaliiton maiden välisiä makrotaloudellisia riippuvuussuhteita. Tutkimuksessa keskitytään erityisesti kansainvälisen kaupan ilmiöihin. Väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta erillisestä esseestä. Ensimmäisessä esseessä käsitellään rahaliiton perustamisen vaikutuksia kansainvälisen talouden dynamiikkaan. Tulosten mukaan rahaliiton perustaminen muuttaa vaihtosuhteen dynamiikkaa rahaliiton sisällä. Lisäksi rahaliiton muodostaminen vaimentaa jäsenmaiden makrotaloudellisia heilahteluita. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan kansainvälisen kaupan merkitystä pienen rahaliiton tapauksessa. Havaitaan, että yhteisvaluutan kurssimuutokset tasapainottavat rahaliiton sisäisiä reaalitalouden muutoksia ja vähentävät tarvetta tasapainottaa taloutta finanssipolitiikan avulla. Kolmannessa esseessä osoitetaan, että rahaliiton jäsenvaltioiden harjoittaman itsenäisen finanssipolitiikan tulisi keskittyä kotimaisen inflaation ja tuotannon tasapainottamiseen. Yhteisen rahapolitiikan tulisi puolestaan tasapainottaa rahaliiton keskimääräisiä muutoksia. Tulosten mukaan epäoptimaalinen rahapolitiikka voimistaa maakohtaisten reaalitaloudellisten muutosten välittymistä muihin rahaliiton maihin.

M.Comm. / The central question addressed by this study is how a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for South Africa can be use to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the well being of South Africa's society and therefore assist fiscal policy makers in the making of Fiscal Policy in South Africa. As a starting point, this study will define the concept of poverty and look at income distribution as a measure of welfare. The questions to be raised in this section are: What is the importance of income distribution? How does South Africa compare in an international perspective and how does the different sources of data in South Africa compare with one another? How can inequality be measured? What does a profile of South Africa's poor looks like and what is the burden of poverty that they have to deal with? The second section of this study describes South Africa's Fiscal Policy in order to understand its impact on societies well being. More specifically, it examines: The failures of recent fiscal policy and its lessons for the future; and The government's GEAR (Growth, Employment and Redistribution) policy. Section three investigates possible fiscal policy interventions for attacking poverty. The following questions are addressed: Which programmes can the government implement in order to address poverty? What is the priorities for action? The fourth and final section of the study looks at the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) as a method for measuring the impact of fiscal policy on the well being of a society. It is discussed from various perspectives in order to arrive at a thorough understanding of its scope and nature, including: o What is a Social Accounting Matrix and does it exists in South Africa? o How can a Social Accounting Matrix assist fiscal policy makers?

Magister Commercii - MCom / This study attempted to examine the nature of the relationship between high levels of external debt and capital accumulation with the case study of Rwanda. / South Africa

The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.

Budget control is a process of financial monitoring to ensure effective allocation, collection and efficient utilizing of public funds. It is a process that is aimed at ensuring the accomplishment of public policy objectives. Budget control is regulated by financial legislation as well as regulations and procedures which guide public financial administrators. Continuous monitoring is needed once appropriation is allowed by parliament or provincial legislatures to ensure effective service rendering as well as tax and user charges collection. This study investigates the reported ineffective budget control measures implemented by the provincial treasury in the Province of the Eastern Cape particularly in the Eastern Cape Department of Education (George, 2004). Ineffective budget control may be associated with the implementation of unstable fiscal policy by the provincial treasury that led to deficit spending in the Department of Education during the 2004/5 financial year. The purpose of this study is to show that the implementation of stable fiscal policy instruments by the provincial treasury would lead to effective budget control in provincial departments such as the Eastern Cape Department of Education. Governments in many instances encounter various challenges in controlling their expenditures on an annual basis as well as in the medium term. This is due to the notion that once the government exceeds the current year’s budget, it consumes the forthcoming budget. Borrowing is by nature an implicit consumption of future unplanned revenue. This makes the Medium Term Revenue Framework in the province immaterial as the provincial own revenue is insignificant. The relative uncontrollability of government expenditure stems from the notion that the provision of, for instance, primary education and social welfare is intertwined with legal entitlement within prescribed parameters. Allocative efficiency embodies recognition of legal entitlement that is reflected in the distribution imperatives if the provincial treasury is to be effective in the budget control function. The National Norms and Standards for School Funding of 2006 state explicitly that public spending in public schools is targeted at increasing the literacy levels of the poor. Intergovernmental fiscal relations play a pivotal role in modelling the fiscal policy of the province. This stems from the fact that expected national collected revenue is distributed as an equitable share to national, provincial and local spheres of government. The criteria for revenue sharing are based on economic disparities and demographics in each sphere of government. It is imperative to note in intergovernmental relations that there are functional areas of concurrent national and provincial competencies. The budget control function of the provincial treasury is implemented within the framework of various administrative processes which are aimed at ensuring effective transactional activities. The disbursement of funds and various other financial processes are subject to the delegation of powers as prescribed in the Public Finance Management Act, 1999 (Act 1 of 1999), as amended by Act 29 of 1999. The provincial governments’ fiscal policies are modelled to be consistent with the macro-economic objectives of the national government. It is for the purpose of macro-economic stability that only national government is eligible to borrow to finance a budget deficit. Provinces are legally prohibited from overspending their budgets. If the fiscal policies of the provinces materially and unreasonably prejudice the national economic policies, the relevant provincial treasury is responsible for taking appropriate steps to place the financial administration on a sound footing.

Growth and Stability Pact is the primary tool of the coordination of economic policy. This thesis deals with the historical development of the Pact, epmhasising its modification and furthermore its eligibility as means of enforcing the fiscal discipline of member states.

My thesis is reflecting the economic progress in USA after a year 2000. The first part of my thesis is describing the most important topics in the economic program of G.W. Bush. The next part of my work is analyzing the decision of G.W. Bush as a president and how they are reflected the economic program. This part is divided in three chapters: taxes, military expenditures and monetary policy. At the end of my thesis I compare and evaluate the economic program and the real decision of the George W. Bush. I also describe influence these decision on the economic of USA.