The objective of this paper is to discuss the financial status of Kaohsiung city after the impact of the Governing Allocation of Revenues and Expenditures Act and the merge of Kaohsiung city and county. After Kaohsiung city-county consolidation to elevate status on December 25, 2010, the new government, by the law, needs to accept the obligations and responsibilities of Kaohsiung County in addition to the original outstanding debts of two governments. It is therefore interesting to ask if the restructuring of administrative regions policy leads to the budget deficit of the new government too large. To this end, we test whether the Kaohsiung fiscal deficits are too large to be sustaintable over the period 1987-2010. Our empirical results have shown that, at the present system of laws, the fiscal deficits of the Kaohsiung city-county consolidation are satisfied since they are stationary.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Steven P. Cassou / This essay empirically investigates the dynamics between government debt and budget deficits in the United States during a recession as opposed to an expansion. We use four different budget deficits definitions to develop a more comprehensive insight. We estimate a threshold VAR model on quarterly data from 1947: Q1 to 2016: Q3 on debt to GDP and budget deficits to GDP ratio for the United States. Specification test using LR test rejects the null for a linear VAR against nonlinear VAR. The nonlinear impulse responses indicate, with an increase to budget deficits to GDP ratio, government debt to GDP ratio rise faster during a recession as opposed to an expansion, and tend to move in a counter-cyclical manner with an increase in the output gap. We can thus infer that governments chose economic stability over fiscal balance during recessions. With an increase in government debt to GDP ratio, nonlinear impulse response show budget deficits to GDP ratio grow faster during an expansion as opposed to a recession and exhibit counter-cyclicality with an increase in the output gap. All four budget defi cits definitions depict similar pattern. Robustness check, using cyclically adjusted primary budget deficit published by the congressional Budget Office, also con rm the above findings. In this essay, we explore the presence of a long run relationship between the monetary base and the government debt using monthly data from 1942:1 to 2015:12. We apply formal statistical methods including cointegration and threshold cointegration tests to investigate the presence of a long-run relationship and estimate a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM henceforth) to analyze the short-run dynamics. We find the presence of a threshold cointegration between the monetary base and government debt. As for the short-run dynamics, TVECM estimates show that the speed of adjustment is significant for the growth in debt equation in both regimes with the signs indicating government adjusting the debt in the short-run. But the U.S. Fed does not change the monetary base, hence we do not find any evidence of debt monetization in the U.S. We evaluate our findings over two sub-samples: 1946 to 2015 and 1946 to 2007 for robustness purposes. Findings from both sub-samples conform to our findings from the full sample. In this essay, we investigate the impacts of growth in the budget deficit and money supply on real interest rate are integral to contemporary macroeconomic policy. We employ threshold VAR and nonlinear impulse responses using quarterly data from 1959 to 2015. We find that growth in money supply and budget deficits have an asymmetric impact on inflation, short-term interest rate, and real interest rates. Growth in money supply and budget deficit tend to make the real interest rate negative in a bad state. In a good state, on the other hand, growth in money supply tend to increase the real interest rate but growth in budget deficits tend to decrease the real interest rate over the forecast horizon.

This thesis describes the actual trends of accumulation of the public indebtedness and the various views on the existence of fiscal deficit and public debt. The main purpose of the thesis is to analyze the public debt management - its objectives, operations and organisation. The quantitative criteria for debt portfolio determined by the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic are analyzed and compared with the development and structure of the czech central government debt. The analytical part of the thesis includes the rules for issuance of the government bonds, the analysis of the interest costs and the thoughts about the sustainability of the czech central government debt.

La crise financière de 2007-2008 a eu un impact massif sur les finances publiques dans un grand nombre de pays du monde. Elle a incité les gouvernements à mettre en œuvre des plans de relance et à approuver des plans de sauvetage financiers pour y remédier et conduit à une crise des dettes publiques et des déficits publics dans la plupart des pays avancés. L'objectif de notre thèse est triple. Il s'agit dans un premier temps, d'éclairer la réponse budgétaire à la crise financière de 2007-2008 concernant la dette publique, le déficit public et la croissance économique en sept pays dans la zone euro et de mettre en lumière les politiques d'ajustement budgétaire qui ont suivi cette crise. Dans un deuxième temps, nous exposerons les principaux déterminants du multiplicateur budgétaire (qui mesure l'effet du déficit public sur la croissance économique). Et analyserons cet effet en cas d’ajustement budgétaire par une méta-analyse et méta-régression sur des valeurs existantes dans la littérature concernant la taille de ce multiplicateur. Dans un troisième temps, nous étudierons l'impact de l'ajustement budgétaire après la crise financière sur la croissance économique et la dette publique en France. Nous réaliserons donc une analyse de causalité entre les trois variables (la dette publique, la croissance économique et le déficit public) prises deux par deux pour la période 1980-2014. L'effet de la crise sera considéré en prenant en compte un point de rupture (break point) sur la courbe de chaque série temporelle et en comparant par la suite les deux séries qui seront déduites. / The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had a massive impact on public finances in many countries of the world. It urged the governments to implement recovery plans and to approve financial rescue packages to redress them and that led to a crisis of public debt and public deficits in most developed countries. The aims of our thesis are: firstly, to clarify the fiscal response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis on public debt, deficit and economic growth in seven countries in the euro area and highlight the policies of fiscal adjustment that followed the crisis. Secondly, to e present the main determinants of the fiscal multiplier (which measures the effect of the deficit on economic growth). And analyze this effect in the case of fiscal adjustment by a meta-analysis and meta-regression on the existing values in the literature regarding the size of the multiplier. Thirdly, we study the impact of fiscal adjustment following the financial crisis on economic growth and public debt in France. We realize a causal analysis between the three variables (public debt, economic growth and public deficit) taken two by two for the period 1980-2014. The effect of the crisis is studied taking into account the break point on the curve of each time series and then comparing the two deducted semi-series.

This thesis deals with short-term relationship between fiscal policy and the real economy. Thesis is divided into three thematic units. In the first part through the analysis of studies examining the size of fiscal multipliers concludes, that depending on the assumptions and selected time period is the size of the multipliers greater in economic recessions, at zero interest rates of central banks or bigger taciturnity of the economy. The multipliers for the Czech Republic are low and did not exceed the value of one. The thesis also analyzes the development of public finances in the years 1997 - 2013 and identifies as their basic problem the structural nature of deficits. As a possible tool to improve the inclination of public finance to the budget deficits are identified fiscal rules limiting public spending. This rule is fully compatible with the Stability and Growth Pact and meets the basic requirements - the clarity and flexibility.

經濟理論認為，長期持續的財政赤字將會因貨幣融通而造成通貨膨脹，而且通膨越高的經濟體越容易受到赤字的影響。本文依照Catao and Terrones (2005)的理論模型，以狹義貨幣衡量財政赤字的規模，並據此檢驗1960到2006年間91個國家赤字與通貨膨脹的關係。本文使用Lin (2010)的分量迴歸方法，藉以估計在不同通膨水準下赤字的影響，並且允許兩者之間的動態調整。實證結果發現：當通膨越高，赤字造成的影響將越嚴重；若通膨在低水準，赤字則影響很弱、甚至不會造成任何影響。因此，當通膨越高的時候，維持財政紀律將越能有效達成物價穩定。這層赤字與通膨間關係不會因為考量了其他變數而有所改變。此外，赤字通常在開發中國家影響較強，尤其是在高通膨的時候。最後，在1990到2006年間，卻沒有發現赤字具有任何的通膨效果。 / In economic theory, sustained fiscal deficits might cause inflation by means of money creation, and the economy in a higher inflation level would be more strongly impacted by an increase in deficits. Following the theoretical model of Cat\~{a}o and Terrones (2005), I scaled fiscal deficits by narrow money stock and examined the deficit-inflation relationship in 91 countries from 1960 to 2006. A dynamic panel quantile regression of Lin (2010) was employed, which can estimate the impact of fiscal deficits at various inflation levels and allows for a dynamic adjustment. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits will be more serious as inflation rises, and weakly or not related to inflation if it is at a low level. Therefore, fiscal consolidation would be more effective in price stabilization the higher the inflation. Moreover, the results remain robust while taking other possibly inflation-related factors into consideration. Furthermore, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation is generally greater in developing countries, particularly when inflation is at a high level. Finally, the inflationary effect of deficits is not detected over 1990--2006.

Submitted by Henrique Yu Jiunn Wang (henriqueyjw@gmail.com) on 2015-09-21T21:41:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13075665 bytes, checksum: 460672073307c2ae8ff746ee1b17f376 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Henrique, Será necessário fazer alguns ajustes na formatação das primeiras páginas de seu trabalho, pois não não está de acordo com as normas da ABNT. Encaminharemos as orientações por e-mail. Att on 2015-09-21T22:15:38Z (GMT) / Submitted by Henrique Yu Jiunn Wang (henriqueyjw@gmail.com) on 2015-09-21T23:15:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-21T23:18:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-22T13:56:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-25 / In this study, we consider an economy where the determination of fiscal and monetary policies are subject to the budget constraint of the government, seen as a consolidated agent that incorporates the executive and the central bank. We study how changes in the growth rate and composition of government liabilities (currency and governmental bonds) affect prices, interest rates, and economic activity. We are particularly interested in analyzing how these effects are affected by changes in the relative liquidity of government bonds. A central result of this work is that increases in the degree of liquidity of government bonds positively affect economic activity and the financing of public debt. We describe this last aspect with an example reflecting the case of the Brazilian economy. / Neste estudo consideramos uma economia onde a determinação das políticas fiscais e monetárias estão sujeitas à restrição orçamentária do governo, visto como um agente consolidado que incorpora o executivo e o banco central. Nós estudamos como mudanças na taxa de crescimento e na composição do passivo governamental (moeda e títulos) afetam preços, juros, e atividade econômica. Estamos particularmente interessados em analisar como estes efeitos são afetados por mudanças na liquidez relativa dos títulos públicos. Um resultado central deste trabalho é que aumentos no grau de liquidez dos títulos públicos afetam positivamente a atividade econômica e o financiamento da dívida pública. Descrevemos este último aspecto com um exemplo refletindo o caso da economia brasileira.