[pt] O período de 1994 a 2008 caracteriza um momento da história fiscal brasileira importante. Durante esse período observou-se uma retomada do controle sobre o endividamento público, por meio de aumento expressivo do superávit primário. Nesta dissertação essa correção é analisada, qualitativamente e quantitativamente, mostrando que a condução austera da política fiscal foi capaz de estabilizar a trajetória do endividamento. Salienta-se a importância de uma posição primária que dependa dos movimentos da dívida, garantindo seu controle em um patamar estável. Foram feitos testes tradicionais da literatura, em que se avaliam diretamente os movimentos conjuntos das variáveis, e, adicionalmente, testa-se o poder preditivo do endividamento sobre o superávit primário. Apesar de encontrar evidências de que a correção na posição primária foi suficiente para induzir o controle do movimento da dívida, a análise qualitativa aponta para uma fonte de instabilidade, o crescimento constante das despesas primárias. / [en] The years between 1994 and 2008 were a very important period in Brazil s fiscal history. The government regained control over its public deficit during those 14 years by increasing its primary surplus to as much as 3% of gross domestic product. This dissertation analyses these changes through qualitative and quantitative methods, exposing the strict fiscal policies that led to control of public debt. It also places emphasis on the significance of an active fiscal policy on public debt levels and the size of the primary surplus. Traditional tests were utilized to evaluate fiscal policy sustainability and, in addition, tests how the primary surplus is impacted, and predicated, by public debt levels. While there is enough evidence showing how primary balance adjustments were sufficient for stabilizing the debt in question, qualitative analysis points out a new source of instability: the continuous growth of primary expenses.

The concern with persistant high government deficits and debts has been one of the most controversial and discussed issues among academics and policymakers during the last two decades of the twentieth century. Despite recent efforts towards fiscal consolidation in most developed countries, expensive welfare programs and unfunded social security systems can exert a considerable strain on public finances over the next generations. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate whether current fiscal policies are sustainable, that is, able to guarantee the government's solvency, and what are the consequences of unsustainability on monetization, inflation and interest rates. The first question is tested by examining the long-run univariate and multivariate stochastic properties of the fiscal variables, as implied by the intertemporal budget constraint. The second question is assessed within a vector autoregressive framework, which allows the consideration of feedback mechanisms often neglected in the literature. More specifically, the econometric methodology employed throughout the study comprises recent developments in cointegration analysis, panel data techniques, bounds-ARDL procedure, and Granger non-causality. The empirical analysis is focused on a comparative study of six core members of the European Union, during the post-war period: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and United Kingdom. The evidence suggests that only Germany and the Netherlands have been following a sustainable fiscal path, although the latter remains vulnerable to the consequences of an ever-increasing stock of debt. However, unsustainable fiscal policies do not seem to have imposed an excessive burden on monetary policies, as predicted by the conventional economic theory. Apart from Italy, there is no empirical evidence that high deficits necessarily imply monetary financing, growing inflation and rising interest rates.

In this study, fiscal sustainability is defined consistent with the government intertemporal budget constraint framework which is related to the solvency of the government. Fiscal sustainability analysis in this context, therefore, considers the revenue side of the budget as well as the expenditure obligations. On the revenue side, the study highlights that fiscal authorities in South Africa continue to rely on income, profit and wealth taxes as they account for a larger share of government revenue compared to indirect taxes. However, immediately prior to the first democratic South Africa, there was a substantial shift from company taxes to personal taxes; a trend that has continued onto 2010. Analyses in this study show that the structure of the main taxes of South Africa compares less favourably to other emerging economies, and the worldwide averages. For instance, even though fiscal authorities have reduced the CIT rate from a high 50% to 28%, this rate is still higher when compared to other upper middle income economies and the rest of the world‟s average. The country compares no better either when the PIT rate is considered but its VAT rate compares favourably to that of the economies mentioned. Since the new era, in particular between 2000 and 2010, fiscal authorities in South Africa focussed on the reduction and stabilisation of marginal tax rates for the major taxes as well minimising the complexity in tax administration by reducing the number of tax brackets. Despite such effort, the wedge between the statutory rates and the realised average tax rates for the three main taxes is a concern regarding the protection of the revenue base. With regards to budget allocations, this study shows that collectively, expenditure on the social sector accounts for slightly below half of government consumption expenditure; specifically, however, there was a reduction in the proportional allocation to Education whilst at the same time the proportional allocations to Social Protection, Public Order and Safety and Social Grants increased. Defence expenditure was high pre-1994 and immediately after the first democratic election, but declined in the later years of the democratic South Africa. In general, the policy of fiscal prudence after 1994 resulted in a substantial decline in debt service cost, whilst the real growth rate of the economy increased considerably. Nevertheless, the former still exceeded the latter for most part of the period between 1994 and 2010. Having reduced its debt burden over the past decades, the South African government again finds itself facing a problem of rising debt due to an increase in the fiscal deficit. On the basis of this background, this study addresses four broad questions, namely: (i) was the fiscal stance taken in the past, sufficient to attain fiscal sustainability in South Africa? (ii) How did fiscal policy in the past adjust to budget imbalances and to what extent did that affect fiscal sustainability? (iii) Which are the optimal ways to v protect the revenue base; and (iv) How does the current fiscal dispensation (i.e. composition of expenditure and tax) affect the economy and inter alia fiscal sustainability? Different econometric techniques, namely: the Smooth Transition Error Correction model; the Logistic quadratic model; the Currency Demand model and the Bayesian Structural Vector Auto Regression Model are applied in the analyses. The findings of this study suggest that fiscal policy over the sample period has been sustainable but likely to be adjusted more quickly when the budget deficit exceeds 4.02% of GDP. However, the stabilisation policies by fiscal authorities are fairly neutral at deficit levels below the estimated threshold; that is, at deficit levels of 4.02% of GDP and below. The fiscal reaction speed of the South African government (i.e. increasing the tax burden) to lower the large deficit levels towards a band of tolerable values, indicate that they are indeed concerned about solvency. Thus, on the basis of this historical fiscal stance, it can be expected that fiscal policy will remain sustainable in the medium-term; and that the government‟s projection to reduce the fiscal deficit from a high 5.3% of GDP in 2010 to 3.0% in 2015 is plausible. In South Africa the main fiscal challenge, therefore, is to find ways through which the recent gains in fiscal solvency are not at the expense of the future revenue base. Consequently, the next objective in this study is to analyse one important element of protecting the revenue base, namely, possible leakages from it. In this regard, shadow economic activity is being investigated. This study finds that on average, the size of the South African shadow economy is 22.18% of GDP with estimated revenue evaded at about 7% of GDP. Further analysis shows that there is a strong positive relationship between the tax burden and shadow income but that this relationship is not symmetric. In South Africa, businesses and individuals are likely to react quicker when the tax burden changes fall outside the band of -3.64% to +2.13% of GDP but remains neutral as long as they are within this band. The implication of this finding is that, any attempt by the fiscal authorities to increase the tax burden to levels above the estimated threshold of 2.13% in order to close the budget deficit might trigger a significant response from the shadow economy thereby reducing the tax base and further worsening the fiscal deficit. Next, the analysis shows that an increase in total government spending has a “crowding–in” effect as real GDP per capita and real private investment respond positively. When government expenditure is disaggregated into consumption and capital expenditure per capita, the analysis shows that a one standard deviation positive shock in government consumption expenditure per capita increases real GDP per capita with a multiplier effect of 0.22, which is higher than the growth multiplier effect (0.16) of government investment expenditure per capita. In addition, the effect of the total tax burden on the GDP and private investment is negative and persistent in the long-term (i.e. after 4 years). The net effect of fiscal policy, therefore, is that it is growth enhancing in the short and medium-terms leading to fiscal sustainability (since r < g) but in the long-term, the growth promoting effects of increased public intervention is offset by the growth inhibiting effects of increased taxes; hence, a threat to long-term fiscal sustainability. vii The composition of the tax regime has a substantial influence on growth; whilst taxes on income and wealth reduce growth, indirect taxes have a positive effect on growth in the short and medium term. On the basis of the above findings the following suggestions are proposed: Firstly, the nature of fiscal policy in South Africa over the post-1994 period has shown to be successful from a fiscal sustainability perspective and should therefore be continued. However, the fact that government only seem to be pro-active in the case when the budget deficit exceeds the 4% margin and actually seem to be fairly neutral at deficit levels below this ratio should be noted. By implementing drastic tax increases in such a scenario could be detrimental to the growth of the revenue base. Conversely, tax relief at lower levels of the margin outlined, and even in times of surpluses could be growth enhancing and should be implemented actively. Secondly, the 2012 medium-term budget document requesting for additional taxes to boost revenue might lead to further growth in the shadow economy, as the projected tax burden increase recommended is above the estimated threshold of 2.13% in this study. Such a reaction from shadow income poses a threat to long-term fiscal sustainability. Thirdly, in their attempt to expand and secure the revenue base fiscal authorities in South Africa should consider further adjustments to the composition of the revenue base. The continuous reliance of the government on direct taxes is shown in this analysis to affect growth adversely, which could destabilise the fiscal gains already achieved. The results of this analysis, therefore, support the international trend towards a shift to indirect taxes from direct taxes. Fourthly, expenditure priorities have to be carefully considered. Fiscal authorities should guard against populist spending patterns and prioritise those expenditures that result in capacity building and enhancing growth and employment. In this regard, the declining trend in expenditure on education and health has to be reversed. A priori, only by focussing its expenditures coupled with enhanced efficiency within such “productive” areas, would government be able to contribute towards enhancing growth which in turn is essential for long-term fiscal sustainability. Thus, the analyses in this study show that in the short- and medium-term, there is no serious threat to fiscal sustainability in South Africa but long-term fiscal sustainability remains a challenge. To enhance long-term fiscal sustainability would require continuous adjustment of policies including the speed of policy adjustment, the stabilisation of the tax burden but with a redirection of focus from direct to indirect taxes; the protection of the revenue base, in particular a reduction in the existing level of tax revenue evaded and the reprioritisation of government expenditures. A broader social and political context of fiscal sustainability has, however, not been included in this study. In a middle income country like South Africa where the role of government is politically and socially important and controversial, future research could explore how the quest to enhance fiscal consolidation can affect political and social stability which may in turn endanger the sustainability of fiscal policy. On the other hand quantifying the fiscal implications of expected developments such as demographic changes, development in health cost and public pension liabilities, could initiate future research on this topic should more relevant data becomes available. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2013 / Economics / unrestricted

[pt] O trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um modelo para explicar a razão pela qual em algumas economias, especialmente a brasileira, se constata que, diante de choques à taxa de juros real, não se observa suavização da taxação, mas sim variações das alíquotas de impostos seguindo variações do ciclo econômico. Mostra-se assim formalmente a ligação entre a sustentabilidade fiscal e variações na carga tributária mais fortemente evidenciada em países em que houve a necessidade de passar por planos de ajustes fiscais - situação esta que pode sugerir a suscetibilidade à ocorrência de crise de confiança em relação ao cumprimento das obrigações de pagamento da dívida soberana, ou seja, probabilidade positiva de repúdio da dívida. A partir do modelo, é possível concluir que uma trajetória não fixa para a taxação pode se estabelecer como resultado ótimo diante de imperfeições no processo de estabilização fiscal. É um modelo que permite endogeneizar e escolher de forma ótima o superávit primário a cada período de tempo. / [en] This paper develops a model to explain why in some economies, and especially in the Brazilian economy, we see evidence that taxation is not smoothened when facing real interest rate shocks. Instead, tax rates vary following the economic cycle. We show through a formal model the connection between fiscal sustainability and the variation of the level of taxation, a pattern more often observed in countries that went through fiscal adjustment plans - a situation that might suggest the possibility of occurrence of confidence crisis regarding the payment of sovereign debt, or a positive probability of debt default. From the model, it is possible to conclude that a non-constant taxation path can be established as an optimal result in such economies. It is a model that allows choosing endogenously and optimally the necessary fiscal superavit in each period of time.

O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a sustentabilidade fiscal dos estados brasileiros durante o período entre 2001 e 2015 e verificar como esta é afetada pelo sistema de transferências intergovernamentais. Para tanto, foram apresentadas as configurações institucionais da política fiscal das Unidades Federativas e definidas duas medidas diferentes de saldo primário, uma delas incluindo e outra excluindo as receitas e despesas com transferências intergovernamentais. Através das referidas medidas foram aplicadas técnicas de dados em painel para avaliar se a relação Dívida/PIB influenciou positivamente o Saldo Primário (Modelo de Bohn: 1998, 2008). Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública não é sustentável e que a evidência de não sustentabilidade independe da inclusão/exclusão das transferências intergovernamentais. Os efeitos, contudo, são heterogêneos. Os estados das regiões Sul e Sudeste, pagadores líquidos de transferências, não atendem a condição de sustentabilidade quando é usado o saldo primário usual, passando a atendê-la quando as transferências intergovernamentais são desconsideradas. Já os demais estados demonstram grande fragilidade fiscal, não atendendo a condição de sustentabilidade sob nenhuma circunstância. Palavras / The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate Brazilian states\' fiscal sustainability during the period 2001 to 2015 and verify how the system of intergovernmental transfers affects it. Therefore, we estimate fiscal reaction functions using two measures of primary balance, one including and other excluding the revenues and expenditures of transfers. The results indicate that the public debt is not sustainable, regardless the inclusion/exclusion of intergovernmental grants. The effects are, however, heterogeneous. States in the South and Southeast, which are liquid donors of grants, do not attend the sustainability condition for the usual primary balance, the reverse occurring when the primary balance exclude the intergovernmental transfers. The remaining states, however, show great fiscal fragility, since they do not attend the sustainability condition under no circumstance.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-02-01T12:02:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Márcio Berlt Jarros_.pdf: 619274 bytes, checksum: acca570fd0d5253bf3296f1b5613749d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-01T12:02:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Márcio Berlt Jarros_.pdf: 619274 bytes, checksum: acca570fd0d5253bf3296f1b5613749d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-05 / Nenhuma / Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar a sustentabilidade fiscal do Brasil e do México, no período entre 1997 e 2016. Os dados indicam que ocorreu uma inflexão na condução da política fiscal, próxima a crise internacional do subprime de 2008, que intensificou uma alteração no comportamento dos governos pela gradual deterioração dos resultados primários. A metodologia empregada utilizou os modelos de cointegração e de multicointegração com quebra estrutural para avaliar a sustentabilidade orçamentária dos governos centrais. Os resultados dos modelos foram semelhantes e apontaram para uma gestão fiscal sustentável para o México, que apresentou maior flexibilidade nos ajustes orçamentários. Foi verificada também a relação de multicointegração entre as receitas, as despesas e o estoque de dívida. A avaliação dos resultados fiscais do Brasil não encontrou evidências que comprovam o equilíbrio entre receitas e despesas nos dois modelos, enquanto que os ajustes orçamentários apresentaram rigidez. No entanto, se observou o aumento da dívida líquida do setor público nos dois países, com gradual aumento da participação dos governos centrais no total de dívida. Em suma, os modelos recomendaram ajustes significantes nas despesas do Brasil, enquanto que um comportamento potencialmente explosivo da dívida tenda a ser mais provável para o Brasil e menos provável para o México. / This study aims to investigate the fiscal sustainability of Brazil and Mexico between 1997 and 2016. The data indicates that occurred an inflection regarding the conduct of the fiscal policy, close to the subprime crisis of 2008, which intensified a change in the government behavior by the gradual deterioration of primary outcomes. The research methodology applied the models of cointegration and multicointegration with structural breaks, to evaluate the budgetary sustainability of central governments. The results of the two models were similar and pointed to a sustainable fiscal management for Mexico, which presented greater flexibility in budgetary adjustments. It was also verified the multicointegration relationship among revenues, expenses and the stock of debt. The evaluation of Brazil's fiscal results did not find evidences to prove the balance between revenues and expenditures in the two models, while budgetary adjustments presented rigidity. However, there was an increase in the public sector net debt in both countries, with a gradual increase in central government participation in the total debt. In sum, the models recommended significant adjustments in Brazil's expenditures, while a potentially explosive debt behavior tends to be more likely for Brazil and less likely for Mexico.

This thesis analyzes the debt dynamics of Turkey and assesses the sustainability of fisscal policy. The assessment of fiscal policy follows the methodology of Garcia and Rigobon (2004). This approach focuses on the concept of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective and incorporates the effects of stochastic shocks to the economy in its assessment. The results suggest that a continuation of the present fiscal stances will lead to a fiscal unsustainability in Turkey. Furthermore, the results indicate that the properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on both dollar denominated debt and YTL denominated debt. This thesis also provides an application of two traditional methodologies, such as Wilcox&#039 / s (1989) methodology and Uctum and Wicken&#039 / s (2000) methodology in order to assess the fiscal sustainability of Turkey.

WHY SHOULD TURKEY CONTINUE WITH STRONG FISCAL ADJUSTEMENT? LESSONS DERIVED FROM THE PAST AgAR PASLI, Mediha M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Associate Prof. Dr. Nadir &Ouml / CAL November 2006, 87 pages Turkey managed to produce a strong fiscal adjustment during the period of 1999-2005 with the annual average of close to 5 percent. Moreover, with the help of this tight fiscal stance, Turkey&rsquo / s public debt has been reduced from the peak of 90.5 percent of GNP in 2001 to 55.8 percent in 2005. Although this is a major achievement both in terms of the size and the speed, the challenge for Turkey is now to continue with fiscal adjustment in order to further reduce its public debt level which still poses a sizeable vulnerability risk for the economy. Therefore, in order to provide an answer to the sustainability question, this thesis first aims to (i) measure the fiscal adjustment in Turkey at the general government level during 1999-2005 period, (ii) analyze sources of fiscal adjustment based on the economic classification, institutional breakdown, and cyclical and structural components. After understanding size and sources of adjustment, the reduction in public debt will be decomposed into its parts including the contribution come from primary surplus. This will shed light on whether Turkey could still rely on those factors for further reduction in public debt in the future.

p. 1 - 138 / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2013-02-18T20:47:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 111.pdf: 2211056 bytes, checksum: d3f615b89879c060315e97d0033fa51f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Fatima Cleômenis Botelho Maria (botelho@ufba.br) on 2013-02-21T13:45:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 111.pdf: 2211056 bytes, checksum: d3f615b89879c060315e97d0033fa51f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-21T13:45:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 111.pdf: 2211056 bytes, checksum: d3f615b89879c060315e97d0033fa51f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / A presente dissertação tem por objetivo avaliar a sustentabilidade da política fiscal brasileira durante o período de 1995 a 2006, considerando a dinâmica do aumento da dívida pública federal, o comportamento das receitas e gastos governamentais e o comportamento do resultado primário frente a novos aumentos no endividamento público. A idéia básica consiste em verificar, no contexto macroeconômico vigente no período mencionado, se o governo conseguiu manter uma disciplina fiscal no sentido de estabelecer uma relação equilibrada entre receitas, gastos e resultado primário de forma a estabilizar e reduzir a relação dívida/PIB sem a necessidade de mudanças bruscas na condução da política fiscal. A sustentabilidade da política fiscal é analisada sob as dimensões temporal e financeira. A dimensão temporal aborda a evolução da Dívida Líquida do Setor Público (DLSP) em proporção do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) utilizando o modelo de regressão estatística, enquanto que a dimensão financeira pressupõe a aplicação de testes econométricos de estacionariedade e co-integração das séries temporais mensais da DLSP, resultado primário, receitas e despesas totais do governo a fim de verificar o cumprimento de sua restrição orçamentária intertemporal. Os resultados dos testes demonstraram que a receita líquida não acompanhou de forma equivalente o aumento verificado nos gastos do governo central, apesar da existência de relação positiva entre as variáveis. O mesmo ocorreu para a relação entre o resultado primário e a DLSP. À luz da teoria econômica, a manutenção de tal situação implicará na possibilidade de acumulação de déficits futuros obrigando o governo a alterar bruscamente a condução da política fiscal de forma a manter a DLSP em níveis sustentáveis. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível confirmar o pressuposto inicialmente assumido de que a solvência da dívida pública federal foi parcialmente alcançada e, portanto, que a política fiscal brasileira do período sob análise se mostrou “fracamente” sustentável. / Salvador

O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a sustentabilidade fiscal dos estados brasileiros durante o período entre 2001 e 2015 e verificar como esta é afetada pelo sistema de transferências intergovernamentais. Para tanto, foram apresentadas as configurações institucionais da política fiscal das Unidades Federativas e definidas duas medidas diferentes de saldo primário, uma delas incluindo e outra excluindo as receitas e despesas com transferências intergovernamentais. Através das referidas medidas foram aplicadas técnicas de dados em painel para avaliar se a relação Dívida/PIB influenciou positivamente o Saldo Primário (Modelo de Bohn: 1998, 2008). Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública não é sustentável e que a evidência de não sustentabilidade independe da inclusão/exclusão das transferências intergovernamentais. Os efeitos, contudo, são heterogêneos. Os estados das regiões Sul e Sudeste, pagadores líquidos de transferências, não atendem a condição de sustentabilidade quando é usado o saldo primário usual, passando a atendê-la quando as transferências intergovernamentais são desconsideradas. Já os demais estados demonstram grande fragilidade fiscal, não atendendo a condição de sustentabilidade sob nenhuma circunstância. Palavras / The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate Brazilian states\' fiscal sustainability during the period 2001 to 2015 and verify how the system of intergovernmental transfers affects it. Therefore, we estimate fiscal reaction functions using two measures of primary balance, one including and other excluding the revenues and expenditures of transfers. The results indicate that the public debt is not sustainable, regardless the inclusion/exclusion of intergovernmental grants. The effects are, however, heterogeneous. States in the South and Southeast, which are liquid donors of grants, do not attend the sustainability condition for the usual primary balance, the reverse occurring when the primary balance exclude the intergovernmental transfers. The remaining states, however, show great fiscal fragility, since they do not attend the sustainability condition under no circumstance.