This thesis examines the influence of lithology on debris torrent occurrence. The analysis covers a thirty-year period in 80 supply-limited basins distributed in the 400 km2 Tsitika River watershed, on northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Two bedrock types occur in the watershed, the Igneous Intrusive and the extrusive Karmutsen formations, covering forty-nine and fifty-one percent respectively. The debris torrent source basins are unlogged. The frequency data were obtained in the field using dendrochronological evidence of debris torrents. Field data were compared with data derived from air photographs, the latter were found to be unrepresentative of debris torrent occurrence and were not used. All study basins were digitised from 1 : 20 000 Terrain Resource Inventory Maps (TRIM), and were characterised by selected morphometric parameters. Results show that geology exerts significant control over the temporal and spatial occurrence of debris torrents in the Tsitika watershed; the Karmutsen formation is more prolific. Geology also was found to exert significant control over the runout area and volume of debris torrents. Climate, morphometry and surficial materials do not appear to be confounding parameters. Differences in weathering rates, infiltration patterns and detrital grain-size distribution associated with the two bedrock types are believed to account for the differences in debris torrent behaviour. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

There exists a federal-provincial programme for providing flood protection in the Lower Eraser Valley. An examination is made of the procedures for deciding upon applications for individual projects included in the Programme and an identification of when, the way, and the extent to which associated interests become involved in project decisions is made. The methodology involves three steps. The first step is to define the procedures followed by the administering agencies of the Programme and identify the stages during which affected interests become involved. The second step is to'identify the things which happen as these procedures are followed. Interviews with key officials in the provision system provide the information presented. The third step is to note particular case study examples in which certain patterns o'faagency interaction occurred. The only significant involvement of affected interests is after a commitmenttto provide flood protection has been made. Advocate interests (outside the lead agencies) do not play a prominent role in the decisions which are made. The accommodation of conditionally supportive interests has generally not been difficult. The accommodation of competitive interests is more difficult. When the losses to be imposed upon affected interests in general, and competitive interests in particular, are high, extensive negotiations take place in search of an equitable compromise solution. The adjustments made to accommodate affected interests are often made at a substantial additional cost to the Programme. That these additional costs may exceed the original assessment of benefits suggests affected interests should become involved at an earlier stage when commitments to provide protection are made on the basis of the associated benefits and costs. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

This study investigates flood characteristics and management strategies in the Lower Skeena River Region. Rivers in the region exhibit two annual flood seasons in which different types of floods occur. Typically, rivers tend to flood during spring freshet in May and June as a result of snowmelt runoff within the Skeena basin. However, intense and sustained rainstorms contribute to another type of flood in the fall months in the Lower Skeena Region. Although the most extensive and largest flood of record occurred as a result of regional snowmelt runoff in the spring of 1936, "the flood inflicting the greatest damage occurred in the fall of 1978 as a result of three days of continuous heavy rain. In contrast with the remainder of the Skeena basin where spring freshet floods are critical, fall floods in the Lower Skeena occur more frequently than spring floods and for the same return period are greater in magnitude. Despite the implementation of flood damage prevention measures in the Lower Skeena Region, flood damage continues to increase and this is largely the result of fall floods. Analysis of the meteorologic and hydrologic features of fall floods indicates important differences in the duration and pattern of flooding throughout the Lower Skeena as compared to spring freshet floods. The interval between the time when the possibility of a flood is known and when it actually occurs is shorter for fall floods, different properties are subject to flooding and the frequency of flooding of most flood prone areas is greater. This indicates the need for a different strategy to manage the flood problem. The current program of flood damage prevention measures in the Lower Skeena is based on the physical characteristics associated with spring freshet flooding. The existing approach in the region is part of a blanket strategy toward managing floods province-wide. The strategy relies almost entirely on nonstructural measures of flood forecasting, floodplain regulation and floodproofing. The design flood, with a 1 in 200 year return period adopted as a basis for the current strategy is derived from the features of the 1936 spring freshet flood. These measures provided no assistance in reducing damages during the fall flood of 1978. A framework for developing a comprehensive flood management strategy to handle fall floods is applied to New Remo, a Lower Skeena flood prone community. The strategy entails the following five steps: I Define the Spatial Distribution of Flood Damages II Design a Flood Forecasting Service III Design an Emergency Plan for Action During Floods IV Assess Remaining Practicable Alternatives for Reducing Flood Damage V Develop a Financing Policy for the Program Potentially feasible adjustments to the flood hazard in New Remo include; (l) flood forecasting, (2) emergency action, (3) floodproofing and (4) permanent evacuation of some homes. However, to develop an optimum combination of alternative adjustments will require site specific information on flood damage risk, which currently is not available for properties in New Remo. The flood management strategy developed for New Remo would be applicable to other communities in the Lower Skeena, prone to fall flooding. However, regional application of the approach requires tailoring the strategy according to the physical, social and economic features within each community affected by fall floods. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

This thesis deals by natural disasters and solutions through commercial insurance. The introduction explains the concept of natural disaster and subsequently there are closer specified individual natural hazards. Then, the work focuses on the development of catastrophic events in the world in recent years, the consequences of their formation, their effects and the impact on these events on the world and Czech insurance. Due to the high frequency of floods in the Czech Republic in recent years, the work also addresses the issue of floods, their insurability and changes on the Czech insurance market reacting to the increased occurrence of floods. The thesis focuses on commercial property insurance products of individuals given to individual areas of different risk in terms of flooding. The analysis shows that insurers evaluate the individual risk zones in different ways and the most risk area of insurance excluded. At the end, there are evaluate the scope of insurance risk transfer to other entities, its importance and possibilities of alternative risk transfer.

A ocorrência de inundações e alagamentos em Porto Alegre é objeto de estudo de diversas pesquisas, as condições climáticas e o relevo do município propiciam que esses fenômenos sejam recorrentes. Esta pesquisa objetiva analisar as intervenções realizadas pelo uso e ocupação da terra na morfologia original e na dinâmica geomorfológica no entorno de vias do município de Porto Alegre onde é identificada a concentração dos eventos de inundação e/ou alagamento que causam interferências no trânsito. Como contextualização histórica foram realizadas a análise da expansão urbana do município de Porto Alegre e a verificação da ocorrência de inundações e/ou alagamentos no município. A partir da análise dos dados climáticos foram selecionadas datas nas quais houve um total pluviométrico acima de 30 mm. Com isso foram identificadas as áreas de concentração dos eventos que causaram alteração no trânsito, a saber: a bacia hidrográfica do arroio Almirante Tamandaré e a bacia hidrográfica do arroio Cavalhada (a com maior número de ocorrências na zona sul de Porto Alegre). A partir da seleção dessas áreas mapeou-se a morfologia original, caracterizando a morfodinâmica anterior às intervenções antrópicas. A morfologia original dessas áreas, quando analisada em conjunto com dados históricos, remete à condição potencial aos alagamentos e/ou inundações. Posteriormente foram mapeados o uso e ocupação da terra atual das áreas de estudo, destacando a densidade de ocupação dos lotes, assim pode-se analisar a relação entre as intervenções na dinâmica geomorfológica originalmente existente e a concentração de alagamentos nessas áreas. As intervenções realizadas pelo processo de ocupação desses espaços acarretaram mudanças na morfologia original que interferiram na dinâmica superficial, especialmente no que se refere ao escoamento das águas pluviais, podendo gerar ou potencializar os eventos de alagamento e inundações na área de estudo. / The occurrence of floods and inundation in Porto Alegre is the object of study of several research efforts. These are recurrent events determined by the climatic conditions and topography of the city. The present research aims at analyzing the interventions made by the use and occupation of the land and its effects on the original morphology and geomorphology around the city of Porto Alegre, where the concentration of floods and / or inundation are identified and the impacts on urban traffic evaluated. As a historical perspective, the analysis is made of the urban expansion of the city of Porto Alegre, that focus on the descrition of flooding and / or inundation occurences in the city. From the analysis of climate database, specifc dates were selected in which the rainfall was higher than 30 mm. The areas of concentration of events that caused changes in traffic, were identified namely: the Admiral Tamandaré hydrographic system and the Cavalhada stream (with the highest number of events in the southern area of Porto Alegre). From the selection of these areas, the original morphology was mapped allowing the characterization of morphodynamic features previous to human interventions. The original morphology of these areas, were analyzed in conjunction with the historical database, which enabled the potential for flooding and / or inundation to be identified. Subsequently the use and occupation of the current areas of study were mapped, highlighting the density of occupation, in a way of assessing the relationship between interventions in the original geomorphological dynamics and concentration of flooding in these areas. The interventions by the process of occupation in these areas led to changes in the original morphology that interfered in the dynamic surface, especially in regard to stormwater runoff. This may generate or enhance the event of flooding and inundation in the area of study.

Trata-se de uma análise sócio-ambiental do fenômeno de enchentes, recorrente no município de Santo André/SP, permitindo identificar, de um lado, um esforço contínuo do poder público para combater esse fator de ameaça relacionado às chuvas. E, de outro, a persistência da vulnerabilidade espacial de populações de baixa renda na localidade, em especial, em áreas marginais. A dissertação levanta problemas que estão na área do gerenciamento do desastre de enchentes, descreve os processos sociais e urbanos, demonstra as vulnerabilidades e as ações tomadas para minimizálas, verificar quais são as perspectivas futuras para as vulnerabilidades e qual é o discurso coletivo das representações sociais dos afetados para as questões do risco, dos danos imateriais, o entendimento da política aplicada para as áreas de enchente, buscando a dimensão do desastre nas percepções dos atingidos pelas enchentes e inundações. Apresenta-se, daí, uma compreensão sociológica baseada no Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) do relato padrão dos afetados na convivência com as enchentes. A pesquisa qualitativa, realizada através de entrevista, identifica um discurso coletivo de sofrimento que, ao lado das perdas materiais, revelam a ausência de cidadania para levar adiante alternativas para a segurança do lugar frente às enchentes. A dissertação visa destacar seu valor informativo para balizar as ações de gerenciamento de risco através das ações integradas de prevenção, preparação, resposta e recuperação mais eficazes no futuro. / This dissertation is about a social-environmental analysis of the floods phenomenon in Santo André city/SP, which, on one hand, allows us to identify a non-stop effort of the public power to beat this threat related to rain and, on the other hand, the spatial vulnerability persistence of the low-income population in the region, especially, on river banks. This dissertation brings up problems that are in the area of the flood disaster management, describes the social and urban processes, shows the vulnerability factors and the actions taken to minimize them. It verifies which the future prospects for the vulnerability factors are and which the collective speech of the social representatives of the affected people is, concerning the risk and immaterial damage issues. This dissertation also verifies the understanding of the policy applied to the flood areas, analysing the disaster dimension from the point of view of the ones affected by floods. Thus we have a sociological comprehension - based on Collective Subject Speech - of the standard-report of people affected by floods. The qualitative survey identifies a collective speech of pain that, besides the material loss, reveals lack of citizenship to carry on alternatives for the local safety against floods. This dissertation aims to highlight its information value to delimit the risk management actions through more efficatious integrated actions of prevention, preparation, response and recuperation in the future.

Thesis (Ph. D. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2016. / Statistics of extremes has seen much growth both in theory and application since its early theoretical developments almost a century ago in the 1920s and its first major applications to real-life problems pioneered by Emil Gumbel in the early 1940s. Although the theory and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) have been extensively advanced and utilised in most developed countries,intermsofapplicationslittlehasbeendoneinmanydevelopingcountries in Africa despite the abundance of areas of applications and raw data in some ofthesecountries. Inhydrology,thechoiceoffloodfrequencyprobabilitydistributions for a particular site or region remains the subject of ongoing research. The work contained in this thesis is a contribution towards this area and it addresses this problem in one of the developing and economically challenged countries in Africa, Mozambique, in the lower Limpopo River basin (LLRB). The LLRB is a basin characterised by extreme natural hazards, alternating between extreme floods and severe droughts. ThisthesisisbasedonanextensiveapplicationofEVTtoextremefloodheights data in the LLRB of Mozambique at three sites: Chokwe, Combomune and Sicacate hydrometric stations. Two fundamental approaches of EVT, block maxima and peaks-over-threshold (POT), are used in this thesis. Recent theoretical results by Ferreira and de Haan (2015) have shown that despite its inefficiency due to data lost as a result of blocking, the block maxima approach is more efficient in a number of situations than the POT approach, and the two approaches are quite comparable for large sample sizes. A number of ii candidate distributions are investigated for their goodness-of-fit to the annual daily maximum flood heights in a block maxima realisation at each site. The findings reveal that the GEV distribution is the most appropriate distribution to apply in the LLRB and the distribution can be recommended as the likelihood function for regional and spatial extremes flood frequency analysis in the basin. The thesis addresses the issue of cumulative effects on daily flood heights through a comparative analysis of six annual maxima moving sums. The findings demonstrate that the six annual maxima time series models are notsignificantlydifferentbasedonthecharacteristicsconsideredinthisthesis. In an attempt to reduce uncertainties in the estimates, a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach with a conjugate prior and a GEV likelihood function is used to model the tails of the extreme flood heights in the basin. The findings reveal that the addition of prior information in Bayesian MCMC substantially reduces uncertainties in the estimates and improves precision in the predicted extreme floods. The r largest order statistics models developed in this thesis are generally promising and the standard errors of the estimates of the parameters are substantially reduced. In order to account for climate change impact, nonstationary models are considered with the longterm trend and seasonal oscillation index (SOI) (a meteorological variable indicator) as covariates of the parameters of the GEV distribution and the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD). Among the major contributions of this thesis is a proposed procedure for the determination of the 8 days window period used in extracting independent r largest order values within the same year for the r largest order statistics approach. A summary of the key findings and contributions of this thesis are given in Chapter 9. Moreover, contributions by the study topic in each chapter are given at the end of each chapter. / DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (CoEMaSS) of South Africa

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22055号 / 工博第4636号 / 新制||工||1723(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 細田 尚, 教授 戸田 圭一, 准教授 音田 慎一郎 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Design of reconstruction the damaged streambed Rusava in the village Rusava The task of this thesis is to evaluate the existing capacity of the streambed and design the reconstruction of Rusava river km 26,000 to 28,230. Rusava watercourse takes place in urban area of village Rusava in Zlín region. Channel revetment was badly damaged by floods in July 2011. The assessment of the current state of the watercourse was based on personal visit of the place and taken photos. Current state was modeled in HEC – RAS 3.1.3 software. The reconstruction is designed according to the assessment of the current river channel condition and also contains proposals for new buildings on the river.

The thesis is focused on the issue of black swans in the water structure. More detail risks and hazard dam. History has shown us that sophisticatedly structure as dam is not perfect. Failure can cause weather, natural disaster, bad chance or deliberate attack. A detailed analysis of the current situation, I mapped historic dam failure, which can cause black swan. In thesis is a reseach on knowledge of the population in this issue. Based on the analysis and obteined information was proposed measures to improve the situation.