Em função das perspectivas trazidas pela descoberta de minério de ferro na Serra dos Carajás, no sul do Pará, o Governo Federal promoveu a partir de 1970, uma série de intervenções na cidade de Marabá. Uma vez verificada a localização inadequada do sítio urbano, vulnerável às enchentes periódicas dos rios Tocantins e Itacaiúnas, foi planejada a transferência da cidade para outro local, onde hoje se encontra a Nova Marabá. A população da cidade antiga não viu com simpatia a idéia, tendo já estabelecido um convívio com as enchentes que praticamente todos os anos afetam a cidade. A persistência da Marabá Pioneira e de seus moradores que ainda estabelecem um modo de vida típico das populações ribeirinhas da Amazônia revela também o fracasso da política de planejamento governamental feita de fora da realidade local e de uma acomodação dos moradores com um problema que acaba gerando custos elevados para o Poder Público em função dos prejuízos provocados todos os anos pelas enchentes. / With newfound prospects brought on by the discovery of iron ore in the Serra dos Carajás (Carajás Range), in the south of the State of Pará, the Brazilian Fedral Government undertook a series of interventions in the city of Marabá, starting in 1970. Once the location of the city was deemed inadequate, as it was vulnerable to flooding from the Tocantins and Itacaiúnas Rivers, plans were made to move it to another site, now known as Nova Marabá. The population of the old city did not take to this idea, sinde they had already learned to live with the floods that affected them almost every year. The persistence of the pioneer Marabá and its inhabitants, who still lead the life of typical river dwelling populations throughout the Amazon region, also reveals the failure of a governmental planning policy out of touch with local reality and the accommodation reached by the inhabitants with a problem that ends up generating exorbitant costs for the State every year, the result of damage caused by the flooding.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-04-28T14:14:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 cinthiamazzonemoreira.pdf: 15100941 bytes, checksum: cc7d94edc938d0660ae17d677fdbc667 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-05-02T01:09:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 cinthiamazzonemoreira.pdf: 15100941 bytes, checksum: cc7d94edc938d0660ae17d677fdbc667 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-02T01:09:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 cinthiamazzonemoreira.pdf: 15100941 bytes, checksum: cc7d94edc938d0660ae17d677fdbc667 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-02 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Nas últimas décadas o ambiente tem sido motivo de preocupação mundial mobilizando diversos atores sociais a reflexão e ação sobre a temática. É neste âmbito que surge a Educação Ambiental, que se apresenta como um importante instrumento para o desenvolvimento de uma consciência coletiva que se faz urgente em um contexto de agravamento dos problemas e conflitos ambientais na atualidade. No entanto a recente constituição deste campo educativo e a multiplicidade inerente a ele implicam em um esforço continuo de compreender as diferentes perspectivas e atitudes de homens, mulheres, crianças, educadores, educandos, governo e sociedade civil a esse respeito. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo teve como principal objetivo analisar o discurso de professores e alunos a respeito das inundações locais que ocorrem frequentemente há mais de vinte anos em uma comunidade localizada na zona norte da cidade de Juiz de Fora, MG, onde a escola está inserida. Atrelado a isso construímos um corpus de análise com o intuito de explorar as concepções de ambiente, Educação Ambiental e problemas ambientais locais dos pesquisados de modo a privilegiar uma reflexão mais abrangente sobre o tema. Para realizar as discussões desta investigação, nos baseamos na articulação dos referenciais teóricos e metodológicos da análise do discurso em linha francesa (AD) e da corrente Crítica, Popular ou Emancipatória da Educação Ambiental. A partir destes procuramos estabelecer um olhar atento às contradições, as incompreensões, os silêncios, as limitações e, sobretudo, as identificações e as leituras de cada grupo que se expressam no discurso e se relacionam com as condições de produção desses grupos. Entre as evidências, constatamos que a paráfrase (repetição) se fez frequente, tanto no discurso dos professores quanto no dos alunos num movimento de filiação de sentidos, em que ambos se filiaram predominantemente a aspectos de uma formação discursiva conservadora, apontando assim para a necessidade de uma abertura para a polissemia. Além disso, concluímos que tal discussão coloca em evidência uma série de problemáticas que ultrapassam o aspecto ambiental, o que sinaliza para a importância do enfrentamento da sociedade em prol da valorização do professor e da educação pública de qualidade. / In recent decades the environment has been global concern mobilizing various social actors reflection and action on the issue. It is in this context that arises Environmental Education, which presents itself as an important tool for the development of a collective consciousness that is urgent in a context of worsening environmental problems and conflicts today. However the recent establishment of this educational field and the inherent multiplicity him imply a continuous effort to understand the different perspectives and attitudes of men, women, children, educators, students, government and civil society in this regard. In this sense, the present study aimed to analyze the speech of teachers and students about the local floods that often occur over twenty years in a community located in the north of the city of Juiz de Fora, MG, where the school is inserted. Coupled to it we constructed a corpus of analysis in order to explore the conceptions of environment, environmental education and local environmental issues of respondents in order to favor a more comprehensive reflection on the subject. To conduct discussions of this research, we rely on the articulation of the theoretical and methodological framework of discourse analysis in French Line (AD) and current Critical, or People's Emancipation of Environmental Education. From this premise we seek to establish a close look at the contradictions, misunderstandings, silences, limitations, and above all the IDs and readings from each group to express themselves in speech and relate to the production conditions of these groups. Among the evidence, we find that the paraphrase (repeat) became frequent, both in teachers' discourse as the students in a movement of membership senses, where both have joined predominantly to aspects of a conservative discursive formation, thus pointing to the need an opening for polysemy. Furthermore, we conclude that such a discussion has highlighted a number of issues that go beyond the environmental aspect, which signals the importance of confronting society for the appreciation of teachers and quality public education.

A great number of tourists visits each day the Fox Glacier in New Zealand and are subjected todangers such as jökulhlaups. This phenomena can occur suddenly and in a destructive way when abuilt up of water suddenly bursts and releases large amounts of water. This is well known to happen atthe near by Franz Josef Glacier which has similar settings to Fox Glacier, but sparse previous researchon the subject indicates different results of whether jökulhlaups are present or not by Fox Glacier. Thisthesis therefore aims to study the conditions for jökulhlaups at the glacier. This is done by remotesensing and field observations of the sandur in the Fox Glacier Valley, qualitative interviews andliterature studies with a comparison with Franz Josef Glacier. The results shows that there has beenjökulhlaups from an ice dammed lateral lake which is also the most likable way for jökulhlaups tohappen again, although there are other potential ways for it to happen due to the large amount of heavyrain that this region gets.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第15652号 / 工博第3310号 / 新制||工||1500(附属図書館) / 28189 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小尻 利治, 教授 椎葉 充晴, 教授 角 哲也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

En Europe, les crues éclair affectent principalement les régions méditerranéennes et montagneuses. Les bassins concernés sont le plus souvent de petite taille. Anticiper ce type d'événements demeure un exercice ardu parsemé de multiples difficultés. Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet commun à IRSTEA et Météo-France (projet RHYTMME) et ses deux objectifs sont :l'adaptation de modèle hydrologique de la méthode AIGA aux régions montagneuses, en tenant compte des caractéristiques de cet environnement ;l'évaluation du nouveau modèle sur des bassins de petite taille, qui sont réellement non-jaugés.Pour atteindre le premier objectif, le modèle est complexifié (prise en compte de la neige), testé sur 118 bassins versants jaugés et régionalisé. Quant au second but, des relevés de dégâts, issus de la base de données des services de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne (RTM), sont utilisés afin d'évaluer le modèle sur 123 très petits bassins dans des conditions aussi proches que possible de la réalité du terrain.Pour réaliser ce second objectif, une méthode d'évaluation est développée, fondée sur des statistiques de contingence, illustrant la concomitance entre dégâts observés et dépassement de seuil des débits simulés. Il est proposé un graphe renseignant le taux de détection (POD) et le taux de succès (SR) pour différents seuils simultanément à l'instar des courbes de ROC. Le principal résultat est qu'une évaluation sur bassins jaugés est une première étape nécessaire mais pas suffisante. En effet, les travaux illustrent le fait que les meilleurs modèles sur les bassins jaugés ne le sont pas forcément sur les petits bassins non-jaugés, sujets aux crues éclair. / In Europe, flash floods primarily occur in the Mediterranean and mountainous areas. The concerned basins are often small and ungauged with a short lag time. Anticipating such events is a tricky task with many difficulties. This thesis is part of a common project between Irstea and Météo-France (RHYTMME project) with two objectives : the adaptation of the hydrological model of AIGA method to the mountainous areas, taking into account the environment characteristics the evaluation of the new model on small basins, which are actually ungauged. To achieve the first objective, the model is complicated by the integration of a snow modelling on 118 gauged basins. Then the model is regionalized. The second objective is to use flood reports from the mountain area restoration services database (services de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne (RTM)). The model is evaluated with these reports on 123 very small basins under conditions as close to as possible the reality. To overcome the second objective, an evaluation method is developed, based on contingency statistics, illustrating the coincidence between observed damages and threshold crossing by simulated flows. A graphic with the probability of detection (POD) according to the success rate (SR) is introduced for different thresholds. Thereby, a multi-threshold approach is used to compare hydrological models like ROC-curves. The main result, highlighted by this thesis is an evaluation on gauged basins is a necessary first step but not sufficient. Indeed, the works illustrate that the decided compromises on the large gauged basins don?t lead automatically to the best performances on the small basins occurring flash floods.

Flooding has been identified as the predominant, environmental generator of food emergencies. Climate change and climate variability have been blamed for these extreme weather events, which are envisioned to affect the future food security and nutritional status of populations across the African continent. It is thus expected that these weather phenomena will continue to increase in frequency and intensity as climate change progresses. Already, climate change has had a dramatic effect on the natural world with increased desertification, warming oceans, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns. In turn, this has affected agriculture and fishing, which subsequently determines the availability of food. On the contrary, weather alone, is not the sole contributing factor to problems that are associated with food security/insecurity. Elements embedded within a political, social, economical, and/or other, context also serve to contribute to how a population or individual experiences food security. It is therefore imperative that these aspects from the social or developmental arena are considered in conjunction with aspects from the natural or environmental sciences. Such a holistic approach to subjects relating to climate change and development will eventually lead to the realisation of sustainable development, which in turn serves to protect human security in the long-term. The research was primarily directed at examining how flooding affects food security and what can be done to avoid, or cope with, a potential food crisis. The above-mentioned social and developmental features shaped the scope of this research, giving rise to an investigation which transcended the confines of flooding as an independent cause and consequence of food insecurity. With East Africa as a focal point, Mozambique and Zambia emerged as the most affected countries with millions of people affected by these devastating waters in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Due to the past nature of the events, it was most appropriate to utilise statistics from sources such as existing databases, reports and articles. Some of the topics that were included in the investigation examined the causes and consequences of the flooding and the management of these disasters. These topics were scrutinised using both qualitative and quantitative dimensions of research, so that an interesting and viable study could be undertaken. ii The research found that frequent and severe flood disasters increase a population‟s vulnerability to food insecurity, as a wide variety of assets, structures and infrastructures are destroyed. However, with careful management, planning and adaptation, many of these unwanted consequences can be avoided or swiftly overcome. Both Mozambique and Zambia were found to be countries that were determined to overcome the barriers associated with climate change and its subsequent extreme weather events. This positively indicated that they were committed to the development process and the wellbeing of their populations. Apart from introducing the topic surrounding the influence of flooding on food security in East Africa, one of the main goals of this research was to gather recommendations and suggestions for avoiding or managing issues that could hamper food security. This ultimately forms an important source of reference for governmental and non-governmental institutions dealing with flooding and food security. Even though Mozambique and Zambia were chosen as the cases for investigation, many of the recommendations can be adapted and applied to countries world-wide.

In my project is assessed effectiveness of protection system against floods in the Czech Republic. Efficiency is described by optimal or at least higher ratio of against-floods protection in comparison with elimination of future floods damages. Theoretical part of this study differentiates floods from institutional, economical and political view and provides comparison of approaches to protection against floods in selected countries. The main part is related to Strategy of protection against floods for the Czech Republic. The analytical part is focused on comparison of public expenses and their efficiency within floods in the Czech Republic in 2004 - 2007. In other part there is described analysis of certain recommendation.

The thesis deals with coverage of natural disaster damages by commercial insurance. A description of natural disasters and their possible occurrence mainly in our territory in association with climate changes as the factor causing increase in their number serve as an introduction. Starting from the impact on the world and the Czech insurance sector, where the thesis deals especially with floods in 1997 and 2002, it is getting on to the analysis of the offers presented by three largest Czech insurance companies. The analysis studies the floods in 1997 and 2002 in perspective with different high-risk flood areas specified in our country. The conclusion of the thesis proposes the ways describing how to deal with risks differently, without using the insurance. The proposal advises an insurer to use such methods as reinsurance or alternative risk transfer instruments.

This thesis is focused on the floods that hit the Czech Republic in 1997 and 2002 and on the storms. It deals with the risk of floods and storms, flood control, insurance products, role of insurance companies in coverage of flood and storm risk. It considers the changes that have occured in the czech insurance market after the floods and storms.

Extreme value theory (EVT) has wide applicability in several areas like hydrology, engineering, science and finance. Across the world, we can see the disruptive effects of flooding, due to heavy rains or storms. Many countries in the world are suffering from natural disasters like heavy rains, storms, floods, and also higher temperatures leading to desertification. One of the best known extraordinary natural disasters is the 1931 Huang He flood, which led to around 4 millions deaths in China; these were a series of floods between Jul and Nov in 1931 in the Huang He river.Several publications are focused on how to find the best model for these events, and to predict the behaviour of these events. Normal, log-normal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type, 4-parameter Kappa, Wakeby and GEV distributions are presented as statistical models for extreme events. However, GEV and GP distributions seem to be the most widely used models for extreme events. In spite of that, these models have been misused as models for extreme values in many areas.The aim of this dissertation is to create new modifications of univariate extreme value models.The modifications developed in this dissertation are divided into two parts: in the first part, we make generalisations of GEV and GP, referred to as the Kumaraswamy GEV and Kumaraswamy GP distributions. The major benefit of these models is their ability to fit the skewed data better than other models. The other idea in this study comes from Chen, which is presented in Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Software Engineering, pp. 1-4. However, the cumulative and probability density functions for this distribution do not appear to be valid functions. The correction of this model is presented in chapter 6.The major problem in extreme event models is the ability of the model to fit tails of data. In chapter 7, the idea of the Chen model with the correction is combined with the GEV distribution to introduce a new model for extreme values referred to as new extreme value (NEV) distribution. It seems to be more flexible than the GEV distribution.