本研究欲探討分析師推薦對管理當局所釋出資訊量之關聯性，當分析師越強力推薦公司時，公司的管理當局將願意提供較多的資訊給分析師做為預測的依據，則分析師對公司盈餘的預測也越準確。研究結果發現給予公司較佳推薦的分析師，預測準確性確實比給予公司較差推薦的分析師高。 之後再利用台灣證券暨期貨市場發展基金會設立的資訊揭露評鑑系統，探討資訊較為透明的公司，因為管理當局自願提供較多的資訊，即便分析師強力推薦，可能也無法得到額外的資訊，所以分析師推薦的效果應比資訊揭露較不透明的受評公司差。實證結果發現資訊揭露較透明的受評公司，分析師的推薦效果確實比資訊訊揭露較不透明的受評公司差。 / This thesis examines directly whether that managers provide more (less) information to analysts with more (less) favorable stock recommendations, based on the Barron et al. model (1998). Prior study documents the relative forecast accuracy of analysts before and after a recommendation issuance under the assumption that increases (decreases) in management-provided information will increase (decrease) analysts’ relative forecast accuracy. In contrast, this paper directly measure amount of information based on Barron et al. model (1998), and examine whether amount of information varies between pre- and post- a recommendation. Contrary to our prediction, the results show no significant difference in amount of information after and before recommendation issuance. However, we do find that analysts issuing more favorable recommendations experience a greater increase in their relative forecast accuracy compared with analysts with less favorable recommendations. In addition, we also find that the association is smaller for firms with higher information transparency than those with lower information transparency. The information transparency is measure by whether firms are listed in Taiwan Securities & Futures Information Center’s Information Disclosure and Transparence Ranking System (therefore TSFIC).

本研究探討Banker and Chen (2006)建構之CVCS模型與本研究建構之CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵，並以ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型與分析師盈餘預測作為判斷CVCS模型與CVCS’模型是否具有盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之比較基準模型。盈餘預測準確度之實證結果顯示：(1)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度；(2)CVCS’模型與ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度並無差異；(3)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度；(4)CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度。資訊內涵之實證結果顯示：(1)CVCS模型之資訊內涵高於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵；(2)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵；(3)CVCS模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵；(4)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵。 / This study examines the forecast accuracy and the information content of CVCS model, proposed by Banker and Chen (2006), and CVCS’ model, constructed by this study. To evaluate the performances of these two models, this study uses ROE model, OPINC model, CASHFLOW model and analysts’ consensus forecasts as the benchmarks. The results of forecast accuracy show (1) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is not different from that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts and (4) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts. The results of information content show (1) the information content of CVCS model is greater than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the information content of CVCS model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts, (4) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts.

Este trabalho estuda as variáveis que influenciam as estimativas de recalques em aterros sobre solos moles com drenos verticais e pré-carregamento com vácuo. É realizada revisão bibliográfica em duas vertentes. Primeiro sobre as teorias de adensamento vertical, radial e com sobrecarga de sucção a vácuo, aplicadas no Estudo de Caso e necessárias para a estimativa dos recalques. Segunda sobre probabilidade e estatística aplicada à geotecnia, utilizada para contemplar a variabilidade e a incerteza dos parâmetros geotécnicos de forma científica. Na prática, a dificuldade interposta por custo e prazo para determinação dos parâmetros geotécnicos necessários para o desenvolvimento do projeto determinaram se a propriedade geotécnica buscada seria definida diretamente ou estimada por meio de propriedades índice, ambos os casos apresentando incertezas. Lambe (1973) discutiu a acurácia dos projetos geotécnicos e concluiu que somente com a compatibilidade entre dados e métodos é que se obtêm previsões geotécnicas acuradas. Análises de recalques são realizadas a partir dos dados do Estudo de Caso, de acordo com as questões práticas importantes: a magnitude dos recalques e o tempo necessário para o seu desenvolvimento. São interpretados ensaios de adensamento em laboratório do Estudo de Caso a respeito da sua qualidade, dos parâmetros geotécnicos medidos e da representatividade da amostra em relação ao solo aluvionar heterogêneo tratado. Dois métodos de cálculo da sobrecarga a vácuo são utilizados, a saber: constante com a profundidade, de uso corrente e mais simples; e decrescente com a profundidade, conforme teoria recente e mais sofisticada. Os parâmetros geotécnicos inferidos pelas sondagens e ensaios realizados são comparados com os parâmetros aferidos de melhor ajuste à instrumentação por meio de retroanálise paramétrica. Para melhor compreender a importância e influência das variáveis que afetam a acurácia das análises realizadas são utilizados métodos probabilísticos a partir das informações disponíveis. Por fim, os resultados obtidos em ambos os locais e com os métodos de previsão utilizados são confrontados quanto à acurácia obtida. / The present research studies the variables that influence settlement estimates in embankments on soft soil with vertical drains and vacuum preloading. The analysis of the existing literature on the topic is twofold. Firstly, it concerns the theories on vertical and radial consolidation, as well as consolidation under vacuum overload, applied in the Case Study and necessary for estimating settlements. Secondly, it regards probability and statistics applied to geotechnics, used to take into account the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters in a scientific manner. In practice, the difficulty posed by costs and deadlines when defining the geotechnical parameters that are necessary for developing the project determined whether the geotechnical property sought would be either directly defined or estimated through index properties, with both scenarios presenting uncertainty. Lambe (1973) discussed the accuracy of geotechnical predictions and concluded that it is only possible to obtain accurate geotechnical forecasts when data and methods are compatible. Settlement analyses are performed based on data from the Case Study, according to important practical issues: settlement levels and the time that is necessary for its development. Consolidation laboratory tests concerning the Case Study are interpreted regarding their quality, the geotechnical parameters measured and sample representativeness in relation to the heterogeneous alluvial soil that has been treated. Two methods for calculating vacuum overload are used, namely, one that is constant with depth (simpler and more broadly used) and one that decreases with depth (following a more recent and more sophisticated theory). The geotechnical parameters inferred through borings and tests that have been carried out are compared with the parameters that best suit instrumentation through parametric back analysis. With a view to better understanding the importance and influence of the variables that affect the accuracy of the analyses performed, probabilistic methods are employed based on the information available. Finally, the results obtained in both sites and through the forecast methods used are compared in regard to the accuracy obtained.

Globalization has led to the growth of international financial markets, as one of the results, the EU adopted IFRS in 2005 to meet the need of accounting globalization and harmonization. This action has triggered a debate about whether the adoption of IFRS is beneficial to accounting quality and information comparability. Meanwhile, China, playing a key role in the global economic development stage, realizes the importance of accounting harmonization and attempts to move towards the IFRS as well. However, to reach the goal that the Chinese companies produce financial statements that are the same as those that apply IFRS, there is still a long way to go. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the adoption of IFRS by EU has enhanced the quality of financial reporting and accounting information comparability. Additionally, the thesis further identified the seminal undertakings for the convergence of IFRS in Europe and pointed out the implication for China’s convergence with IFRS. The empirical findings in this thesis were obtained through qualitative interviews. The empirical findings suggest that accounting quality and information comparability has been enhanced with EU’s strong and full enforcement with IFRS. With the confidence in IFRS which is gained from the success of the EU’s adoption of IFRS, a coherent result was found that the convergence towards IFRS would also benefit China in accounting quality and information comparability, and further lead to more international investments. However, when it comes to the question whether China should emulate EU’s example to adopt IFRS directly or keep CAS (Chinese Accounting Standards) which is similar to IFRS, two mixed opinions were obtained basically from Europe side and China side. Through in-depth analysis with these empirical findings, the conclusion is that it is necessary for China to take steps to build intensive programs to enhance its capacity of the adoption of IFRS, so that it could adapt itself to the fact that the IFRS is already making its way around the world as a single set of high quality global accounting standards.

Este trabalho estuda as variáveis que influenciam as estimativas de recalques em aterros sobre solos moles com drenos verticais e pré-carregamento com vácuo. É realizada revisão bibliográfica em duas vertentes. Primeiro sobre as teorias de adensamento vertical, radial e com sobrecarga de sucção a vácuo, aplicadas no Estudo de Caso e necessárias para a estimativa dos recalques. Segunda sobre probabilidade e estatística aplicada à geotecnia, utilizada para contemplar a variabilidade e a incerteza dos parâmetros geotécnicos de forma científica. Na prática, a dificuldade interposta por custo e prazo para determinação dos parâmetros geotécnicos necessários para o desenvolvimento do projeto determinaram se a propriedade geotécnica buscada seria definida diretamente ou estimada por meio de propriedades índice, ambos os casos apresentando incertezas. Lambe (1973) discutiu a acurácia dos projetos geotécnicos e concluiu que somente com a compatibilidade entre dados e métodos é que se obtêm previsões geotécnicas acuradas. Análises de recalques são realizadas a partir dos dados do Estudo de Caso, de acordo com as questões práticas importantes: a magnitude dos recalques e o tempo necessário para o seu desenvolvimento. São interpretados ensaios de adensamento em laboratório do Estudo de Caso a respeito da sua qualidade, dos parâmetros geotécnicos medidos e da representatividade da amostra em relação ao solo aluvionar heterogêneo tratado. Dois métodos de cálculo da sobrecarga a vácuo são utilizados, a saber: constante com a profundidade, de uso corrente e mais simples; e decrescente com a profundidade, conforme teoria recente e mais sofisticada. Os parâmetros geotécnicos inferidos pelas sondagens e ensaios realizados são comparados com os parâmetros aferidos de melhor ajuste à instrumentação por meio de retroanálise paramétrica. Para melhor compreender a importância e influência das variáveis que afetam a acurácia das análises realizadas são utilizados métodos probabilísticos a partir das informações disponíveis. Por fim, os resultados obtidos em ambos os locais e com os métodos de previsão utilizados são confrontados quanto à acurácia obtida. / The present research studies the variables that influence settlement estimates in embankments on soft soil with vertical drains and vacuum preloading. The analysis of the existing literature on the topic is twofold. Firstly, it concerns the theories on vertical and radial consolidation, as well as consolidation under vacuum overload, applied in the Case Study and necessary for estimating settlements. Secondly, it regards probability and statistics applied to geotechnics, used to take into account the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters in a scientific manner. In practice, the difficulty posed by costs and deadlines when defining the geotechnical parameters that are necessary for developing the project determined whether the geotechnical property sought would be either directly defined or estimated through index properties, with both scenarios presenting uncertainty. Lambe (1973) discussed the accuracy of geotechnical predictions and concluded that it is only possible to obtain accurate geotechnical forecasts when data and methods are compatible. Settlement analyses are performed based on data from the Case Study, according to important practical issues: settlement levels and the time that is necessary for its development. Consolidation laboratory tests concerning the Case Study are interpreted regarding their quality, the geotechnical parameters measured and sample representativeness in relation to the heterogeneous alluvial soil that has been treated. Two methods for calculating vacuum overload are used, namely, one that is constant with depth (simpler and more broadly used) and one that decreases with depth (following a more recent and more sophisticated theory). The geotechnical parameters inferred through borings and tests that have been carried out are compared with the parameters that best suit instrumentation through parametric back analysis. With a view to better understanding the importance and influence of the variables that affect the accuracy of the analyses performed, probabilistic methods are employed based on the information available. Finally, the results obtained in both sites and through the forecast methods used are compared in regard to the accuracy obtained.

This diploma thesis deals with a demand forecasting in electronic shop focused on electronics Alza.cz. The aim of the thesis is to evaluate several forecasting methods for different groups of products and to determine which of them provides the most accurate forecasts. The theoretical part is focused on electronic business, logistics cost, demand forecast, demand forecasting methods and forecast accuracy measuring methods. In practical part, selected methods are applied on data of past demand to calculate the forecasts. Afterwards the forecast accuracy is measured. At the end the thesis provides evaluation of forecast accuracy of the methods.

Spelbolag AB has a long history in the Swedish market. Their products are all based on randomness, with a predetermined probability of winning. Some of Spelbolag AB's products are stable in sales throughout the year, while others fluctuate with holidays. Spelbolag AB offers products whose sales are largely influenced by the prize value; higher prize amounts attract more gamblers, while lower prize amounts attract fewer gamblers. Spelbolag AB also has products that are purchased more or less based on the value of the prize, i.e. a higher prize pot increases the number of gamblers and vice versa. Through campaigns, the company wishes to enhance the interest in their products. To estimate the total revenue from the products, a statistical tool has been used. The predictions are made for different key performance indexes (KPIs) which are used as the foundation for some strategic decisions. A wish to improve the statistical tool used by the company has risen due to poor performance. This thesis aimed to create an updated statistical tool. This tool was based on a time series analysis of the weekly net game revenue (NGR). The goal of the time series analysis was to find a statistical model with high forecast accuracy. To find the optimal model for forecast accuracy, a grid search algorithm was used. The performance measure mean squared prediction error (MSPE) was used as a decision base in the grid search along with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Akaike information criterion (AIC) was also estimated as a goodness-of-fit measure. The thesis work resulted in two different SARIMAX models that were analyzed and tested, both including the same exogenous variables. The recommended SARIMAX(1, 0, 2)(1, 1, 1)52 model obtained an MAPE of 4.49%. / Spelbolag AB har en lång historia på den svenska marknaden. Deras produkter är alla slumpmässiga i dess utfall, med en förbestämd chans att vinna. Vissa av Spelbolag ABs produkter har stabil försäljning, medan andra flukturerar med högtider. Spelbolag AB har även produkter vars försäljning påverkas av vinstsumman; fler personer spelar när vinstsumman är hägre och tvärtom. Genom kampanjer önskar företaget öka intresset för sina produkter, och på så vis öka försäljningen. För att prediktera och kunna förutse de totala intäkterna från produkternas försäljning har ett statistisk verktyg använts. Dessa prediktioner har gjorts för olika KPIer, vilka används för att fatta strategiska beslut. Detta verktyg har på den senaste tiden resulterat i dåliga prediktioner, varpå en önskan om att förnya verktyget har uppkommit. Syftet med denna uppsats har därmed varit att uppdatera det statistiska verktyget. Verktyget har baserats på en tidsserieanalys av veckovist netto spelinkomst (NSI). Målet med tidsserieanalysen var att hitta en statistisk modell med hög träffsäkerhet i prediktionerna. För att hitta en optimal modell för just prediktionsnoggrannhet användes algoritmen rutnätssökning. Beslutsunderlaget i denna rutnätssökning var medelkvadratisk predikteringsfel (MSPE) samt medelabsolut procentuellt fel (MAPE). Dessutom estimerades akaike informationskriteriet (AIC) som ett mått på modellanpassning. Uppsatsen resulterade i två olika SARIMAX modeller som båda analyserades och testades, och dessa modeller inkluderade samma exogena variabler. Den rekommenderade SARIMAX(1, 0, 2)(1, 1, 1)52 modellen erhöll ett MAPE av 4.49%.

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本研究以中國2007年至2012年的A股上市公司為研究對象，探討管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測行為的關係，預測行為迴歸模型以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確性及預測離散程度三種特性進行分析。 研究結果發現，管理當局能力與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測精確度皆呈現顯著正相關，與預測離散程度則為負相關，但并不顯著。這表示經理人能力較好，則分析師對該公司之追蹤意願較高，且盈餘預測誤差與預測離散度較低。本研究藉此結果推論，管理當局能力愈佳之企業，經理人愈會提供品質良好、具可靠性的財務報導，故分析師將愈信賴該公司所提供之資訊，並可幫助分析師做出更精確之盈餘預測，並降低彼此間之預測誤差。 / This study examines the relation between managerial ability and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in China from 2007 to 2012. We use several analysts’ attributes: number of analysts following, forecasts error, and forecasts dispersion. According to the empirical results, in general, analysts tend to follow firms with more ability of managers, and managers with superior ability might decrease analysts’ forecast errors and the dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts.