本研究檢測審計品質與經理人能力對於分析師盈餘預測行為之相對有用性。根據Compustat 及 I/B/E/S所蒐集之1996至2011年資料，本研究發現，相對於非四大會計師事務所或非產業專家，當公司被四大會計師事務所或產業專家查核時，分析師預測之準確度較高，且離散度較小。此外，本研究發現當公司經理人能力較高時，分析師預測之準確度亦愈高，而離散度亦愈小。最後，為探討沙賓法案對分析師預測行為之影響，本研究將樣本區分為沙賓法案前及沙賓法案後兩組。實證結果顯示，相對於沙賓法案前，在沙賓法案後，分析師較重視審計品質與經理人能力。整體而言，審計品質與經理人能力皆會為分析師的盈餘預測帶來正面影響，而經理人能力之影響較為顯著。 / This study examines the relative usefulness of audit quality and managerial ability on financial analysts’ earnings forecast behavior. Based on data collected from Compustat and I/B/E/S from 1996 to 2011, the empirical results show that analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is higher and dispersion is smaller when firms are audited by a Big 4 auditor or an industry specialist. Similarly, analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is also higher and dispersion is also smaller when firms employ more capable managers. To investigate whether SOX affects analysts’ behavior, sample is divided into pre-SOX and post-SOX groups. The regression results from both groups show that analysts take audit quality and managerial ability into their earnings forecasts after SOX. Overall, the results suggest that both audit quality and managerial ability are associated with analysts’ earnings forecast properties. Importantly, the effect of managerial ability appears to be larger than the effect of audit quality.

本研究旨在探討管理當局發佈自願性盈餘預測意願、預測精確度、預測型態與管理當局能力之關聯性，並進一步檢測能力較佳之管理當局所發佈之盈餘預測對投資人是否具增額資訊內涵。 實證分析結果顯示管理當局能力與管理當局發佈盈餘預測之機率呈顯著正相關，亦即管理當局能力愈好，發佈盈餘預測之機率愈高；再者，本研究發現能力愈佳之管理當局，其盈餘預測之精確度亦會較高；而實證結果亦顯示當管理當局能力較好時，較願意以資訊量較多之完整式財務預測型態發佈財務預測。增額測試結果則顯示市場對於能力較佳之管理當局發佈之自願性盈餘預測反應程度較高。 / The primary objective of this thesis is to explore whether the managerial ability is related to management earnings forecast, earnings forecast accuracy , and disclosure format. Additionally, this thesis investigates whether managerial ability increases the informativeness of management earnings forecast for (potential) investors. Empirical results show that managers with superior ability tend to announce management earnings forecast and when managers have better ability, they shall announce more precise management earnings forecast. About disclosure format, this thesis finds that managers with superior ability prefer to announce complete earnings forecasts than simple ones. Additionally, market reaction will be more to the informativeness of management earnings forecast which made by managers with better ability.

本研究檢測會計師事務所總所審計與分析師盈餘預測行為的相關性。以中國大陸2010年至2015年A股上市公司為研究對象，構造分析師盈餘預測行為的回歸模型，並以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確度及預測分歧度三種特性進行分析。 研究結果顯示，會計師事務所總所審計與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測準確度皆呈顯著正相關，與預測分歧度呈顯著負相關。進一步檢測發現：總所的審計公費更高，經會計師事務所總所審計的企業，分析師更願意對其股票給予較高的投資評級。這也顯示會計師事務所總所付出的努力更多，審計品質更好，因而分析師對其會計資訊信賴程度更高，對該公司之追蹤意願更高，盈餘預測誤差與預測分歧度更低，分析師也更願意推薦其股票。 / The primary objective of this thesis is to explore the association between headquarter office auditors and analysts’ earnings behaviors. I use a sample of firm observations from China during 2010-2015. The main findings can be summarized as follows. I find that firms audited by headquarter office auditors have more analysts following compared to those audited by branch office auditors. Secondly, I find that analysts’ earnings forecasts are more accurate and less dispersed for firms audited by headquarter office auditors than firms audited by branch office auditors. Further analysis indicates that the reason for the above results is that headquarter office auditors exert more effort, measured as audit fees, than branch office auditors. Finally, the empirical results indicate that analysts make more favorable recommendations for firms audited by headquarter office auditors than for those audited by branch office auditors. Overall, the findings suggest that headquarter office auditors have better audit quality and in turn result in more analysts following and issuing higher-quality forecasts and favorable recommendations.

Submitted by SANTIAGO BURGADA (sburgada@maxam.net) on 2015-01-25T12:10:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-02-04T19:27:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-02-11T13:27:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-11T13:34:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-29 / Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.