Die im Nebelvorhersagemodell PAFOG enthaltenen Modellkomponenten für parametrisierte Wolkenphysik, Strahlung und Sichtweitenbestimmung wurden durch Module zur Beschreibung der Interaktion mit dem Boden und der Vegetation ergänzt. Das auf diese Weise komplettierte Modellsystem PAFOG-V kann dazu verwendet werden, das lokale Auftreten von Strahlungsnebel und niedriger stratiformer Bewölkung vorherzusagen. / The paper presents an extension of the model components for parameterized cloud physics, radiation and visibility determination as implemented in the local forecast model PAFOG to include the interaction with the soil and the vegetation. The resulting forecast system PAFOG-V can be used to predict local events of radiation fogs and of low level stratiform clouds.

XTREND consists of the following methodical Parts. Time interval extraction (Part 1) to analyse different parts of a time series; extreme events detection (Part 2) with robust smoothing; magnitude classification (Part 3) by hand; occurrence rate estimation (Part 4) with kernel functions; bootstrap simulations (Part 5) to estimate confidence bands around the occurrence rate. You work interactively with XTREND (parameter adjustment, calculation, graphics) to acquire more intuition for your data. Although, using “normal” data sizes (less than, say, 1000) and modern machines, the computing time seems to be acceptable (less than a few minutes), parameter adjustment should be done carefully to avoid spurious results or, on the other hand, too long computing times. This Report helps you to achieve that. Although it explains the statistical concepts used, this is generally done with less detail, and you should consult the given references (which include some textbooks) for a deeper understanding.

La presente tesis se realizó en una empresa metalmecánica que se dedica a la fabricación y servicio técnico de intercambiadores de calor para diferentes mercados de la industria peruana. En el desarrollo del presente proyecto, se identificó mediante herramientas como el diagrama de Pareto y el diagrama del árbol para ambas unidades de negocio de la empresa metalmecánica, como problema principal el bajo nivel de cumplimento de entregas a tiempo de los intercambiadores de calor a sus clientes, tomando como prioridad, las causas que están generando este problema son las constantes rupturas de stock y error en los pronósticos. Por ello, se propone un plan de mejora en la gestión de inventario utilizando una clasificación ABC multicriterio de materiales del almacén en función a los criterios que se van a desarrollar en la presente tesis, además de definir un stock mínimo de materiales dentro del almacén y lote óptimo compra de los materiales directos. Por otro lado, para reducir el error de pronóstico, se realizó un análisis de demanda para la selección de los métodos de pronósticos cuantitativos que se ajustan a la empresa. Con su implementación se espera mejorar los indicadores logísticos de la empresa, reducir el tiempo de producción de la empresa y establecer un tiempo de entrega de los productos finales más competitivo en el mercado. / This thesis was carried out in a metalworking company that is dedicated to the manufacture and technical service of heat exchangers for different markets of the Peruvian industry. In the development of this project, tools such as the Pareto diagram and the tree diagram for both business units of the metalworking company were identified as the main problem with the low level of fulfillment of timely deliveries of heat exchangers to their Customers, taking as a priority, the causes that are generating this problem are the constant stock breaks and forecast errors. Therefore, an improvement plan in inventory management is proposed using a multi-criteria ABC classification of warehouse materials based on the criteria that will be developed in this thesis, in addition to defining a minimum stock of materials within the warehouse and Optimal purchase lot of direct materials. On the other hand, to reduce the forecasting error, a demand analysis was performed for the selection of quantitative forecasting methods that fit the company. With its implementation, it is expected to improve the logistics indicators of the company, reduce the production time of the company and establish a delivery time for the most competitive end products in the market. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

Difficulties with wind turbines can arise during operation due to externalforces provoked by the wind. Calculating the deflection of the blades can beused to give break points for maintenance, design and/or monitoring purposes. Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors can be installed on the windblades to detect signals that can be reinterpreted as deflection in differentdirections. In this project a tool was developed that can take this information in real time to analyze critical issues which is important to save timeand operational and maintenance costs (O&M). To do so, a predictive model is used to anticipate the deflection in the blades caused by the impact ofthe wind in different orientations. The main purpose of this work is to showan algorithm that can transform optical signals from the FBG sensors into ashape calculator for the deflection for maintenance purposes. At the sametime, it is shown that this algorithm can be used as a forecast tool takinginto consideration the weather data.

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This study proposes a “new" consumer price index (CPI) and investigates the influence of Sweden's monetary policy on the new index level and its variations over time. Unlike the traditional CPI that the SCB uses, the "new" CPI tries to consider technology improvements by using macro data. The research demonstrates that the "new" CPI resulted in less inflation than the traditional CPI computed from 1981 to 2020. The research predicts that the difference between the two CPIs would keep growing through 2020–2024, indicating that using the "new" CPI will lead to a more conservative approach to monetary policy. The findings suggest that policymakers should update the CPI regularly to reflect changes in consumer behavior and technological advancement, acknowledge the uncertainty associated with forecasting inflation, and be transparent with the public about the limitations of forecasting models. This study emphasizes the potential benefits of incorporating technology improvements into the CPI and its influence on monetary policy.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23480号 / 工博第4892号 / 新制||工||1764(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 准教授 市川 温, 教授 堀 智晴 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM