Not too long ago, commercial supersonic aircraft flights were part of the air transportation system. In the 1970's we had the Russian-built Tupolev Tu-144 and the BAC/Aerospatiale Concorde, the latest being tin operation for 27 years. The work documented in this dissertation focused on the viability of bringing back supersonic aircraft as a transportation mode. Throughout three years, Virginia Tech and a team from NASA have been combining efforts to develop a model capable of predicting future air travel demand for supersonic vehicles. The model can predict future supersonic commercial services and allows aircraft designers from NASA to optimize aircraft performance and characteristics by maximizing the potential air travel demand. The final product of this study was the development of the Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Model (LBSAM). The development progress took three years to be completed, and during each year, a version of the model with the preliminary predictions was made available to NASA. Each of the three versions of the model predicts future supersonic commercial services. What differentiates each version is the data, method, and aircraft type/design implemented; the latest version of the model is more realistic and provides a higher number of functionalities. The first version of the model predicted the possible supersonic commercial service for three aircraft types: each with two variations. An 18-seat, 40-seat, and 60-seat low-boom and non-low-boom aircraft were analyzed. The second version of the model analyzed a 20-seat and 40-seat low-boom, non-low-boom aircraft with restrictions and non-low-boom aircraft without restrictions. The latest version of the model tries to estimate potential demand for a 43-seat and a 52-seat supersonic low-boom aircraft design. The low-boom concept refers to the implementation of technology that reduces the loudness of a sonic boom. A non-low-boom concept refers to an aircraft flying faster than Mach 1 with the technology's implementation that reduces the loudness of a sonic boom. The final results suggest that for a 52-seat LBSA, the potential worldwide demand is as follows. • 33.4 million seats worldwide. Assuming an overland range of 3,200 nm., an overland Mach 1.7, and an overland fuel scale factor of 0.98. • 772 aircraft needed worldwide. Assuming an overland range of 2,800 nm., an overland Mach 1.7, and an overland fuel scale factor of 0.90. • 1,032 one-way OD pairs where LBSA can operate. Assuming an overland range of 2,800 nm., an overland Mach 1.7, and an overland fuel scale factor of 0.90. The LBSAM is mainly driven by the cost per passenger mile values calculated for each one-way Origin-Destination (OD) pair. Additional uncertainties in the model include the market share and annual aircraft utilization. The market share refers to the percent of the demand that will switch from current subsonic commercial services to commercial supersonic services. During the three-year work, we considered a market share of 50% and 100%. Aircraft utilization refers to the number of hours that the airline will be able to use the aircraft. The majority of the projections were based on a 3,500-hour aircraft utilization. / Doctor of Philosophy / Not too long ago, commercial supersonic aircraft flights were part of the air transportation system. An aircraft flying faster than the speed of sound is known as an aircraft flying at supersonic speed. Current commercial aircraft fly at subsonic speed. Subsonic speed refers to aircraft flying at a speed lower than the speed of sound. In the 1970's we had the Russian-built Tupolev Tu-144 and the BAC/Aerospatiale Concorde, the latest being tin operation for 27 years. The work documented in this dissertation focused on the viability of bringing back supersonic aircraft as a transportation mode. Throughout three years, Virginia Tech and a team from NASA have been combining efforts to develop a model capable of predicting future air travel demand for supersonic vehicles. The model can predict future supersonic commercial services and allows aircraft designers from NASA to optimize aircraft performance and characteristics by maximizing the potential air travel demand. The purpose of this dissertation effort is to provide a better understanding of what could be the potential commercial demand for supersonic flight in the near future. We consider all the benefits and characteristics of supersonic flight and studied in detail what percentage of the travelers might be willing to migrate from the current subsonic market to the supersonic market. We estimated this ratio by studying the spending behavior of passengers in the current market. How much more are passengers willing to pay to save time? We can infer how much travelers value their time by comparing direct flights versus flights with an intermediate stop. The results show that a demand of 33.4 million seats could be reached by the year 2040. The supersonic market would consist of more than one thousand one-way origin-destination pairs worldwide, and more than seven hundred supersonic aircraft are expected to satisfy the forecast demand.

No / This paper proposes that the changes which occur in composition of the bed load during the transport of mixed-grain-size sediments are largely controlled by the distributions of critical entrainment shear stress for the various size fractions. This hypothesis is examined for a unimodal sediment mixture by calculating these distributions with a discrete particle model and using them in a probabilistic calculation of bed-load composition. The estimates of bed-load composition compare favorably with observations of fractional transport rates made in a laboratory flume for the same sediment, suggesting that the hypothesis is reasonable. The analysis provides additional insight, in terms of grain mechanics, into the processes that determine bed-load composition. These insights strongly suggest that better prediction methods will result from taking account of the variation of threshold within size fractions, something that most previous studies have neglected.

The U.S. Coast Guard maintains a network structure to connect its nation-wide assets. This paper analyzes and models four highly aggregate traces of the traffic to/from the Coast Guard Data Network ship-shore nodes, so that the models may be used to predict future system demand. These internet traces (polled at 5â 40â intervals) are shown to adhere to a Gaussian distribution upon detrending, which imposes limits to the exponential distribution of higher time-resolution traces. Wavelet estimation of the Hurst-parameter is shown to outperform estimation by another common method (Sample-Variances). The First Differences method of detrending proved problematic to this analysis and is shown to decorrelate AR(1) processes where 0.65< phi1 <1.35 and correlate AR(1) processes with phi1 <-0.25. The Hannan-Rissanen method for estimating (phi,theta) is employed to analyze this series and a one-step ahead forecast is generated. / Master of Science

Yes / This is a pioneering effort to test the comparative performance of two competing models for out-of-sample forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes employing both symmetric and asymmetric evaluation criteria. Under symmetric error statistics, our empirical model using the estimated growth factor of volatility through time is overall superior, and it beats in most cases the benchmark model of the square-root-of-time for holding periods between one and 250 days. Under asymmetric error statistics, if over-prediction (under-prediction) of volatility is undesirable, the empirical (benchmark) model is consistently superior. Relative performance of the empirical model is much higher for holding periods up to fifty days.

Consistently high returns in private equity has lead to a steady increase in the global totalassets under management during the past few decades. Therefore, the relevancy of investing in private equity is obvious. As an investment class, private equity is much younger thanits public counterpart, which is a big part of the reason why the amount of financial researchand modeling on it is quite confined. Nevertheless, the need for forecasting capabilities for anyinvested party in private equity is still great, and the authors of this thesis set out to delivera model which accurately forecasts expected net asset value development of a private equityportfolio and present a confidence interval for it. Furthermore, the thesis serves to present suchresults conditional on macroeconomic scenarios. The scope of the study includes private equityfunds of various investment classes, namely, small-cap and mid-cap buyout, large-cap buyoutand venture capital and growth equity.To achieve an accurate model, the study is based on data from a credible source and threeseparate models are derived and tested against each other. The three models consist of one using a simple historical mean approach, another is based on theory presented by Takahashi andAlexander (2002) (the TA-model), and the third model (the modified TA-model) comes fromresearch by Buchner, Kaserer and Wagner (2009). The TA-model and the modified TA-modelhave at least one parameter which needs to be optimized. This was done using a conditional leastsquare method, utilizing MATLAB’s tool for solving nonlinear optimization problems, fmincon.Subsequent to the derivation of each model, a statistical test (a p-value test) was completed.This resulted in the TA-model being proved to be the best in forecasting net asset value development of private equity funds (which by extension means it is also the best at projectingthe same for an entire private equity portfolio) and was therefore implemented in further areas. By sorting the data on vintage year of the fund, data sets corresponding to pre-definedmacroeconomic periods could be attained. The TA-model was then fitted on these data setswhich produced meaningful results in regards to net asset value development, conditional onthree different macroeconomic scenarios, early-, mid-, and late market cycle. Next, Monte Carlosimulations were performed by stochastically simulating the distributions of funds in the various investment classes, resulting in confidence intervals of potential outcomes. Ultimately, theresults were applied to a mock portfolio designed by the authors to represent reality in fair way.The results of the study allow for two important conclusions to be drawn. Firstly, the authors areconfident that the thesis delivers a model which forecasts net asset value development of privateequity investments within certain confidence intervals in a good way, thereby fulfilling the aimof the study as accurately as possible, given the scope and limitations of the study. Secondly,the investigation provides solid evidence that the net asset value development of a private equityfund is dependent on what market cycle is prevailing at the time of fund commencement, andhow the development varies between such scenarios. Finally, using insights gained during theinvestigation process, the authors identify some potential areas for future studies.

Submitted by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2018-06-18T18:53:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaeldeMoraisVargasDissertacao2018.pdf: 2179808 bytes, checksum: e2993cd35f13b4bd6411d626aefa0043 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2018-06-18T18:54:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaeldeMoraisVargasDissertacao2018.pdf: 2179808 bytes, checksum: e2993cd35f13b4bd6411d626aefa0043 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-18T18:54:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaeldeMoraisVargasDissertacao2018.pdf: 2179808 bytes, checksum: e2993cd35f13b4bd6411d626aefa0043 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-27 / Given the importance of market risk measures, such as value at risk (VaR), in this paper, we compare traditionally accepted volatility forecast models, in particular, the GARCH family models, with more recent models such as HAR-RV and GAS in terms of the accuracy of their VaR forecasts. For this purpose, we use intraday prices, at the 5-minute frequency, of the S&P 500 index and the General Electric stocks, for the period from January 4, 2010 to December 30, 2013. Based on the tick loss function and the Diebold-Mariano test, we did not find difference in the predictive performance of the HAR-RV and GAS models in comparison with the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, considering daily VaR forecasts at the 1% and 5% significance levels for the return series of the S&P 500 index. Regarding the return series of General Electric, the 1% VaR forecasts obtained from the HAR-RV models, assuming a t-Student distribution for the daily returns, are more accurate than the forecasts of the EGARCH model. In the case of the 5% VaR forecasts, all variations of the HAR-RV model perform better than the EGARCH. Our empirical study provides evidence of the good performance of HAR-RV models in forecasting value at risk. / Dada a importância de medidas de risco de mercado, como o valor em risco (VaR), nesse trabalho, comparamos modelos de previsão de volatilidade tradicionalmente mais aceitos, em particular, os modelos da família GARCH, com modelos mais recentes, como o HAR-RV e o GAS, em termos da acurácia de suas previsões de VaR. Para isso, usamos preços intradiários, na frequência de 5 minutos, do índice S&P 500 e das ações da General Electric, para o período de 4 de janeiro de 2010 a 30 de dezembro de 2013. Com base na função perda tick e no teste de Diebold-Mariano, não encontramos diferença no desempenho preditivo dos modelos HAR-RV e GAS em relação ao modelo Exponential GARCH (EGARCH), considerando as previsões de VaR diário a 1% e 5% de significância para a série de retornos do índice S&P 500. Já com relação à série de retornos da General Electric, as previsões de VaR a 1% obtidas a partir dos modelos HAR-RV, assumindo uma distribuição t-Student para os retornos diários, mostram-se mais acuradas do que as previsões do modelo EGARCH. No caso das previsões de VaR a 5%, todas as variações do modelo HAR-RV apresentam desempenho superior ao EGARCH. Nosso estudo empírico traz evidências do bom desempenho dos modelos HAR-RV na previsão de valor em risco.

本論文以公司規模大小、公司成長率、盈餘變異程度、盈餘持續率、負債比率、系統風險、以及產業別為控制變數，探討管理當局持股比率與管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理程度之關係。並進一步探討管理當局持股比率與七個控制變數之交互作用對管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準礁度及盈餘管理程度之影響。 　　本實證研究結果發現： 　　1、自願性盈餘預測方面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率越高且盈餘變異程度越大之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(2)管理當局持股比率越高且負債比率越高之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(3)產業別會影響其預測準確度，而產業中以鋼鐵業之盈餘預測準確度，顯著較高。 　　(4)公司成長率越高、盈餘持續率越高，其盈餘管理程度越高。 　　(5)產業中以電子業有顯著較高之盈餘管理程度。 　　2、強制性盈餘預測力面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率與盈餘預測準確度成正相關。 　　(2)公司規模與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(3)盈餘持續率與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(4)產業別確實與強制性盈餘預測準確度有關，其中以電子業之盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(5)管理當局持股比率越高之紡織業其盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(6)強制性盈餘預測並無顯著的盈餘管理情況產生。 　　3、綜合結論： 　　(1)自願性之盈餘預測準確度高於強制性之盈餘預測準確度。 　　(2)自願性之盈餘管理程度高於強制性之盈餘管理程度。 / This research hypothesizes that the level of managerial ownership that controlling for earnings growth、earnings variability、earnings persistence、company risk、 debt、industry、and size has effect on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary(compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　In addition，this study examines that there are interaction of ownership effects on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary (compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　The empirical results show as follow: 　　1、Voluntary forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is negatively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership of is positively associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　2、Compelling forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is positively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership is not associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　3、Conclusion explication: 　　(1) The magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(2) The magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(3) Industry variable indeed affects both the magnitude of forecast precise and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.

本研究旨在探討管理當局自願性盈餘預測與權益資金成本之關聯性，檢視管理當局發布盈餘預測頻率之影響是否反應於權益資金成本上，並進一步檢視管理當局之聲譽是否為影響權益資金成本的因素之一。 在本研究的實證分析結果中，發現管理當局發布自願性盈餘預測之頻率與權益資金成本呈顯著負相關，表示管理當局發布盈餘預測的次數越多時，權益資金成本越低。 在管理當局聲譽對於權益資金成本的影響，本研究實證分析結果發現，管理當局之聲譽與權益資金成本亦呈顯著負相關，管理當局聲譽以管理當局預測誤差和分析師預測誤差來衡量，當管理當局的盈餘預測誤差小於分析師盈餘預測誤差時，投資人認為管理當局對盈餘的預測有效且值得信賴，此時管理當局聲譽提高，投資人認為取得有用的資訊，進而降低企業權益資金成本。 / The primary objective of this thesis is to explore whether the frequency of management forecasts is related to the cost of equity capital. In addition, I further examine whether the association is stronger when management has better reputation. Basing on a sample of S&P 500 listed firms during 2000-2009, I find that, consistent with my prediction, cost of firm’s equity capital decreases with the frequency of management earning forecasts after controlling for other determinants well-documented to be related to cost of equity capital. Second, I find that cost of equity capital is negatively related to the reputation of management; however, I do not find that the association between cost of equity capital and the frequency of management systematically vary with the reputation of management.

Business Administration, Business Process and Supply Chain Management Degree Project (master), 15 higher education points, 4FE06E, Spring 2013 Authors: Jeremy Bellina, Olegs Bodins, Soeren Krieger and Mathilde Olivier Tutor: Roger Stokkedal Title: Managing Upstream Supply Chain in Order to Decrease Inventory Level: A Case Study on the Paper Merchant Papyrus Sweden. Background: The research is based on Papyrus Sweden, a paper merchant, which is facing a decrease in the demand of paper products. It was identified that inventory level reduction is now crucial for the company in order to stay in the market. Therefore, Papyrus Sweden is focused on inventory level and tied-up capital reduction in order to decrease costs and increase net profit. Purpose: This thesis aims to analyze the current situation in Papyrus Sweden in terms of inventory level and activities related to suppliers, and prepare recommendations which could help Papyrus Sweden to reduce its inventory level. Method: The data has been collected through interviews with managers from the supply chain department as well as through a data sample from Papyrus Sweden database given to the researchers. All data was analyzed and compared with the literature review. Data received from the database was processed and transformed in Microsoft Excel in order to make the analysis. Results: The analysis identifies issues in material planning methods, safety stock calculation, ABC-XYZ classification and forecast calculation, on which Papyrus Sweden could act in order to decrease its inventory level. Furthermore, the researchers identify two solutions Papyrus Sweden could implement with its suppliers in order to reduce inventory level which are a Service Level Agreement and a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Keywords: inventory level, material planning method, safety stock, ABC-XYZ classification, forecast calculation, replenishment lead time, supplier relationship, information sharing, Service Level Agreement (SLA), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative planning, forecast and replenishment system (CPFR).

當企業的經營面臨不確定的情況時，使用穩健原則固然是可靠的，但是公司如果過度的使用穩健原則來操縱財務報表，將使資產和盈餘嚴重低估和扭曲，因此反而會降低財務報表的可靠性以及攸關性。公司的財務報表是財務分析師預測的來源之一，故當公司的盈餘由於受到管理當局對會計保守程度之操縱而有較大波動幅度時，若分析師相信公司當期盈餘是對未來盈餘的無偏誤預測指標，則財務分析師將會被誤導。因此，公司的會計保守程度對分析師盈餘預測的誤差和不同分析師間對盈餘預測意見不一致之程度應該有重大的影響。 　　本文以民國90年至94年之上市公司為研究對象，經由迴歸模型來分析公司會計保守性與分析師盈餘預測誤差與盈餘預測分歧程度間之關係，以檢視財務分析師是否能察覺保守性會計對公司盈餘的影響而反映於其盈餘預測中。結果發現會計保守性對分析師盈餘預測屬性均有正向影響，表示財務分析師在預測公司未來盈餘時會對管理當局所選擇的會計保守程度加以評估，並考量管理當局利用會計保守性進行盈餘管理的情形，進而影響其對公司未來盈餘的預測。 / Management may overuse accounting conservatism to manage the financial statements and undervalue assets and earnings and reduce the reliability and relevance of financial statements though conservatism is an increasing trend in accounting practice. The conservative information may lead analysts to biased forecast when a company’s earning has high volatility. Consequently, the extent of accounting conservatism should have significant effect on the analysts’ earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion. This study examines the relationship of accounting conservatism and analysts’ annual earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion by using a sample of listed firms in Taiwan. The results show that accounting conservatism has a positive relationship with the analyst earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion. It implies that financial analysts may evaluate the extent of accounting conservatism and make adjustment in earnings forecast.