Do nations' allies and trading partners affect their vulnerability to transnational terrorist attacks? Prior research has focused on how the attributes of individual nations, such as regime type, economic stability, and international power, affect their likelihood of being the target of transnational terrorist attacks. However, prior research has not addressed the impact of a nation's economic and foreign policy ties on this phenomenon. Specifically, the question I ask is whether terrorists attempt to indirectly affect the status quo policy stance of a powerful nation by attacking the allies and trading partners of that nation. I develop a theoretical framework to explain why terrorists are likely to target allies of powerful nations in the international arena to force the more powerful nation to change its policy stance. Focusing on the United States, I examine how a nation's economic and foreign policy ties to the U.S. affect its vulnerability to transnational terrorist attacks. I test my expectations using the ITERATE database of transnational terrorist events from 1968 to 2000. The results suggest that a nation's economic and foreign policy ties may have a significant impact on its vulnerability to transnational terrorism.

This study in political science examines the UN adopted resolution 1970 (2011) and resolution 1973 (2011) on the basis of foreign policy decision-making. The study aims to explain how the UN principle of Responsibility to Protect came to be legitimized for the first time by the UN Security Council in the Libya conflict in 2011. By a poliheuristic perspective the study attempt to explain Russia and China’s acting in the voting of resolution 1970 and resolution 1973. The background to the conflict in Libya 2011 is presented in the study as well as the Security Council’s actions during the conflict, from the beginning of the conflict until the adoption of resolution 1973. The study is based on an argument analysis to crystallize the most important arguments from Russia and China’s statements regarding resolution 1970 and resolution 1973. The results of the research shows that the adoption of resolution 1973 and therefore a military intervention in Libya in 2011 can be explained, from a poliheuristic perspective, primarily by the few political options and decision-making dimensions actors have to choose from when making decisions.

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Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.

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This thesis examines the critical factors leading to the 1948 decision by the United States government to extend recognition to the newly declared State of Israel. In the first of five chapters the literature on the recognition of Israel is discussed. Chapter II presents the theoretical foundation of the thesis by tracing the development of Charles Kegley's decision regime framework. Also discussed is the applicability of bureaucratic structure theory and K. J. Holsti's hierarchy of objectives. Chapters III and IV present the empirical history of this case, each closing with a chapter summary. The final chapter demonstrates the relevance and validity of the theoretical framework to the case and closes with a call for further research into the processes of foreign policy decision-making.

本文題為俄羅斯與中國對伊朗核問題立場之比較研究。本文藉由「外交決策」理論，以及「政治系統論」和「層次分析法」，研究從俄羅斯的外交決策模式、國內外因素，探究俄羅斯對伊朗核問題之立場，以及，從中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素，探究中國對伊朗核問題之立場。最後，再比較俄羅斯與中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素，以及兩國的政策產出－伊朗核問題之立場，進行比較分析俄中對伊朗核問題立場和政策的異同之處為本文之研究目的。 在國際處理伊朗核問題的進程中，俄羅斯、中國對於伊朗核問題的立場可謂大致相同，他們皆主張「以外交手段進行和平談判」的立場。然而，不同的是俄中在決策過程中的背後動機與各自盤算的國家利益。俄羅斯採取「平衡政策」(balancing policy)，以伊朗為談判籌碼，換取美國釋出更多利多；而中國則是採取「拖延與削弱策略」(delay-and-weaken strategy)，以維護在伊朗的各項利益。 / This paper is a comparative study about the positon of Russia and China on the Iranian nuclear issue. We use the approach of “foreign policy decision making”, “political system theory” and “analytic hierarchy process” to study the formation of Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making, the factors that affect the policy decision making process, the stand of Russia and China toward the Iran’s nuclear issue, and finally, we compare the defference of those two countries. On the issue of Iran’s nuclear, Russia and China take approximately the same attitude.Both of them advocate that every one should take peace negotiations instead of sanctions. The differences between Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making is that Russia trys to use the balancing policy, and takes advantage of Iran’s nuclear issue, making the U.S. to release more benefits for Russia,while China takes the delay-and-weaken strategy, making effort to protect their benefits in Iran.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A dissertação objetiva analisar a influência da Islamofobia no processo decisório em política externa nos Estados Unidos após a data de 11 de setembro de 2001 por meio de sua apropriação por atores sociais considerados como potencialmente influentes no referido processo. A Islamofobia será conceituada a partir de um medo cultural que converte as culturas islâmicas em uma fonte de ameaça. Alinhando-se a uma perspectiva teórica que aponta para a força criativa dos discursos, se procederá à análise de alguns discursos ilustrativos para se sugerir a construção da ideia de ameça islâmica, bem como as formas através das quais o medo inspirado por tal concepção de uma ameaça islâmica alcançou as instâncias decisórias em política externa nos Estados Unidos. Por intermédio de uma análise de conteúdo que se utilizará de uma bibliografia de apoio multidisciplinar, serão abordados temas relativos à problemática de se representar as culturas, à dimensão social do medo, e às diretrizes gerais da política externa dos Estados Unidos após os Atentados Terroristas de 11 de Setembro, considerando que o desenvolvimento de tais questões subsidiará o alcance do objetivo principal do trabalho. Trata-se, em última instância, de um estudo que busca conjugar considerações sobre a política externa dos Estados Unidos com uma análise antropológica acerca da problemática das culturas, expressa a partir da conversão de uma cultura determinada em uma fonte de ameaça. Nesse sentido, a dissertação pode ser caracterizada como de natureza exploratória, uma vez que busca situar um tema pouco explorado no horizonte teórico, sobretudo em estudos sobre política externa. / The thesis intends to show the circulation of Islamophobia in the foreign policy decision making process in the United States after September 11, 2001, through its appropriation by social actors considered to be potentially influential in said process. We conceptualize Islamophobia as a cultural fear that converts islamic cultures in a threat source. By aligning with a theoretical perspective that points out the criative force of discourses, we will analyze some illustrative discourses in order to suggest the discursive construction of the islamic threat, so that we can indicate that the fear inspired by the conception of a islamic threat has reached the foreign policy decision-makers in the United States. Through a content analysis that will rely on a multidisciplinar literature, we will approach subjects such as the problem of representing cultures, the social dimension of fear, and the general guidelines of US foreign policy after the September 11 attacks, considering that such questions will subsidize the achievement of the main objective.It is ultimately a study that intends to articulate considerations on United States foreign policy with an anthropological analysis about the problem of cultures, expressed as the conversion of cultures in a threat. In this sense, we consider it to be an exploratory thesis that seeks to situate a subject little explored in theoretical horizon, especially in studies about foreign policy.