Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-06-16T14:28:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Bernardo Baggio_.pdf: 416360 bytes, checksum: 14a4f642ac9d680221805c10bceda846 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-16T14:28:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bernardo Baggio_.pdf: 416360 bytes, checksum: 14a4f642ac9d680221805c10bceda846 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-28 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / Os fluxos de capitais globais estão associados tanto a benefícios quanto a malefícios de ordem econômica. Os investimentos de curto prazo em portfólio, em especial, por sua volatilidade intrínseca, ensejam um estudo a fim de analisar quais são os determinantes do seu ingresso em países suscetíveis a movimentos de capitais, como os países da América Latina, com destaque para o Brasil. A economia brasileira passou por crises domésticas e internacionais no período de 1999 a 2015, sofrendo com a forte volatilidade dos fluxos de capitais, gerando, assim, alterações na taxa de câmbio e nos ativos precificados em reais. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar quais são os determinantes do ingresso de capitais de curto prazo destinados à renda fixa e à renda variável no Brasil durante o período de estabilização econômica ocorrida no país. Por meio da aplicação do modelo VAR/VEC, a análise empírica sugere que o ingresso de capitais para ações esteja associado ao aumento nos preços das commodities, na elevação do próprio índice de ações, e, em menor intensidade, ao PIB e à inflação. Na renda fixa, o ingresso está associado ao aumento na taxa Selic. / Global capital flows are associated with economic benefits and ravages. Short-term portfolio investments, especially for its intrinsic volatility, lead to a study in order to analyze the determinants of their inflow into countries susceptible to these movements, such as the Latin Americans, specifically Brazil. Brazil’s economy experienced domestic and international crisis during 1999 to 2015, occurring a tough volatility on capital flows fathering changes in exchange rate and in assets priced in Brazilian real. With that said, the objective of this paper is to analyze the determinants of short-term capital inflows in fixed income and equities in Brazil during the period of economic stabilization. By applying the VAR/VEC model, the empirical analysis suggests that capital inflows into equities are associated to higher commodity prices and higher stock indexes, besides GDP and inflation in minor degree. When it comes to fixed income, the inflow is associated to the increase in the Selic rate.

Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) into Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) between 2000 and 2014 remained a minute fraction (at only 2% and 1% respectively) of global inflows. This study seeks to explain this phenomenon by examining the push (global) and pull (domestic) factors that may help to explain inflows of FDI and FPI in SSA and the mechanisms through which these factors affect inflows (the how). As ongoing regional integration efforts in Africa through trading blocs, the study also discusses the role of regional trading blocs in explaining capital flows into SSA. In the process, the research challenges some of the established theories and contributes to policy for managing international capital inflows. The study identifies possible explanatory variables from existing theory and empirical studies. Data on possible determinants of FDI and FPI is largely extracted from the World Bank and IMF databases. The determinants considered are macro-economic, infrastructural, institutional, resource endowment and geographical related. These are modeled into econometric model of FDI and FPI. Several hypotheses on the possible determinants are then tested using panel regressions with random effects. The results indicate that SSA's FDI during the period reviewed is mainly pulled by macroeconomic dynamics, infrastructure and human resources factors and pushed by global macroeconomic performance. Likewise, FPI is largely pulled by GDP and infrastructure factors. The results further show that FDI and FPI inflows in regional trading blocs of SADC, COMESA and ECOWAS are affected by different risk, return, macroeconomic, trade and distance factors. The effects of factors such as distance and macroeconomic factors also vary across the regional trading blocs, suggesting their importance of these blocs in capital flows.

This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.

This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.

This thesis contributes to a better understanding of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). The second Chapter investigates the potential downside of BITs on sovereign default risk. The legal risk of arbitral proceedings imposed by BITs might increase sovereign default risk. This risk channel is especially relevant in countries with low executive constraints. Even if a sovereign does not expropriate, there may be negative effects on sovereign bond prices. Thus, sovereign debt may become more expensive after a BIT signature. The third Chapter investigates how BITs affect foreign portfolio equity investment. BITs with strong investor protection increase bilateral portfolio equity investments in countries with high political risk. In low-risk countries, no effect is detected. Policymakers should consider their political risk when deciding on investment treaties. When the political risk is low, one cannot expect an investment-enhancing effect from BITs. The fourth Chapter encourages policymakers to comply with concluded investment treaties. The first arbitral proceeding permanently lowers the bilateral portfolio investments, even from countries not involved in the investment dispute. A conviction of the host state seriously deters foreign portfolio investors. However, initiating proceedings and decisions favoring the respondent state can also deter some portfolio investors. Concerning portfolio investments, policymakers should avoid arbitral proceedings as far as possible.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

在國際金融蓬勃發展的現況下，國際間的租稅協定與租稅政策如何吸引投資者進行外國證券投資，為各國促進國際金融與經濟的發展的重要議題。本研究探討的問題為國際間的租稅協定與個別國家的租稅改革是否影響投資人在進行外國證券投資的投資決策。 本研究以中國為例，探討於2008年中國實施新企業所得稅法後，與中國簽有租稅協定國之境外投資人，是否因其適用的股利所得稅率較非租稅協定國低，而有較大誘因與動機增加其對中國的外國證券投資金額。而實證結果顯示，於中國2008年的租稅改革後，與中國簽有租稅協定國的境外投資人明顯增加其對中國的外國證券投資額。此結果證明，租稅協定與租稅政策對外國證券投資者的投資之決策有其影響力。 / Since Global Financial has grown rapidly, how countries develop their financial markets and economics by abstract foreign portfolio investment (FPI) through international tax treaty and tax policy has become an important issue. And this study examines the relationship between tax treaty and tax reform to FPI, in order to see how taxation effects foreign investors’ investment decisions. This study derives the hypothesis that Enterprise Income Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China of 2008 should lead to a portfolio reallocation by foreign investors toward equities in tax-favored countries. An analysis that compares foreign equity holdings in treaty and un-treaty countries with China finds a substantial portfolio reallocation toward the former. The empirical results of the study indicates that after the tax reform of 2008 in china, treaty countries have more incentive than un-treaty countries to increase their FPI toward equities due to their lower dividends tax rates. And this result suggests that tax treaty and tax reform have an impact on FPI investors’ decisions.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

This study investigates how the mandatory adoption of the international reporting standards IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for publicly listed companies affect countries’ levels of in- and outflow of cross-border capital. The continued harmonization of financial reporting standards on an international level is bringing up questions regarding supposed benefits of their implementation. These benefits cover areas such as increased accessibility of external financing, lower costs of capital, greater opportunities to receive a loan with longer terms, and the perceived improvements to the quality and transparency of annual reports. These factors, along with others, are driving forces as to why countries should experience changes in cross-border flows of capital when they officially adopt IFRS. It is this study’s goal to establish differences and relationships between different components of the international flow of capital and the aforementioned adoption. In this study the components are represented by the dependent variables; foreign direct investment inflow, foreign direct investment outflow, foreign portfolio investment, foreign loans as well as loans that are given to other countries. To analyse differences caused in these values by the adoption, paired t-tests are performed on data consisting of 2 360 observations from 59 countries during the period of 2001-2019. In addition, 42 countries from the continent of Asia are investigated during the period of 2013-2019 with several multiple regression analyses to determine relationships, in this case the data consisted of 4 410 observations. The paired t-tests exhibited statistically significant increases in all variables as of the adoption while the multiple regressions analyses resulted in only one out of five variables having a significant relationship with the event, that variable being foreign direct investment outflow. The results put to question previous studies successful attempts to show significant positive relationships between adoption and countries’ levels of foreign direct investment inflow, foreign portfolio investment, foreign loans and loans given to other countries. The result also has implications for further research in regard to choice of controlling variables as well as method of data collection. / Denna studie undersöker hur den obligatoriska implementeringen av de internationella redovisningsstandarderna IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) för börsnoterade företag påverkar länders in- och utgående flöden av gränsöverskridande kapital. Den fortsatta harmoniseringen av redovisningsstandarder på internationell nivå tar upp frågor gällande implementeringens påstådda fördelar. Fördelar som implementering av IFRS leder till täcker områden såsom ökad tillgänglighet av extern finansiering, lägre kapitalkostnader, större möjligheter att ta ut lån med längre löptider, och att årsredovisningar upplevs få bättre kvalitet och bli mer transparenta. Ovanstående faktorer m.fl. utgör grunden till varför länder borde uppleva förändringar i gränsöverskridande kapitalflöden i och med implementering av redovisningsstandarderna. Det är denna studies mål att etablera skillnader och samband mellan olika beståndsdelar av det internationella kapitalflödet och denna implementering. De beståndsdelarna representeras i denna studie av de fem olika beroende variablerna; ingående utländsk investering, utgående utländsk investering, utländsk portföljinvestering, utländska lån samt lån som delas ut till andra länder. För att undersöka ifall skillnader uppstår i dessa värden i och med implementering utförs parade t-test på ett dataunderlag av 2 360 antal observationer tagna från 59 länder under perioden 2001–2019. Dessutom undersöks 42 länder i kontinenten Asien under perioden 2013–2019 med multipla regressionsanalyser för att påvisa samband, datan i detta fall uppgick till 4 410 stycken observationer. T-testen visade på statistiskt signifikanta ökningar i alla variabler i och med implementeringen av IFRS medan de multipla regressionsanalyserna resulterade i att endast en av de fem olika variablerna, nämligen utgående utländsk investering, hade ett signifikant positivt samband med händelsen. Resultaten problematiserar tidigare studier som föreslår att det existerar signifikanta positiva samband mellan implementering och länders nivåer av ingående utländsk investering, utländsk portföljinvestering, utländska lån och lån som delas ut till andra länder. Undersökningen har även implikationer för framtida undersökningars val av kontrollvariabler och datainsamlingsmetod.