<p>Enligt teorin om öppen ränteparitet (UIP) ska den förväntade nominella växelkursförändringen motsvara räntedifferensen mellan två länder. I själva verket visar de flesta studier att teorin inte håller och att det förekommer ett signifikant negativt samband mellan variablerna istället för det positiva sambandet som följer av teorin (Froot&Thaler 1990, McCallum 1994). Även i denna uppsats konstateras ett negativt samband, vilket innebär att UIP kan förkastas för Sverige och USA under perioden 1994:1-2006:2. En amerikansk investerare som köper svenska statsskuldväxlar får således förutom en högre ränta även avkastning i form av en apprecierande växelkurs. I uppsatsen undersöks om avvikelsen från teorin kan förklaras utifrån förekomsten av en riskpremie för det mindre landet Sverige. Genom att använda den statistiska metoden GARCH-M kan det konstateras att växelkursens avkastning påverkas av dess volatilitet och således har effekt på avvikelsen från UIP. Tecknet för sambandet är dock felaktigt utifrån definitionen av en riskpremie. Det kan dock konstateras att det förekommer en riskpremie för Sverige som påverkas av inflationsdifferensen och statsskuldsdifferensen mellan länderna.</p>

Enligt teorin om öppen ränteparitet (UIP) ska den förväntade nominella växelkursförändringen motsvara räntedifferensen mellan två länder. I själva verket visar de flesta studier att teorin inte håller och att det förekommer ett signifikant negativt samband mellan variablerna istället för det positiva sambandet som följer av teorin (Froot&amp;Thaler 1990, McCallum 1994). Även i denna uppsats konstateras ett negativt samband, vilket innebär att UIP kan förkastas för Sverige och USA under perioden 1994:1-2006:2. En amerikansk investerare som köper svenska statsskuldväxlar får således förutom en högre ränta även avkastning i form av en apprecierande växelkurs. I uppsatsen undersöks om avvikelsen från teorin kan förklaras utifrån förekomsten av en riskpremie för det mindre landet Sverige. Genom att använda den statistiska metoden GARCH-M kan det konstateras att växelkursens avkastning påverkas av dess volatilitet och således har effekt på avvikelsen från UIP. Tecknet för sambandet är dock felaktigt utifrån definitionen av en riskpremie. Det kan dock konstateras att det förekommer en riskpremie för Sverige som påverkas av inflationsdifferensen och statsskuldsdifferensen mellan länderna.

Yes / It is believed that financial markets are integrated and sensitive to news – including political conflicts in some regions of the world. Furthermore, financial markets seem to react differently to information flows from one region to another. The purpose of this research is to discern the effects of the recent Middle East and North Africa (MENA) conflicts – commonly referred to as the Arab Spring – on the volatility of risks and returns of global and regional stock markets as well as Gold and Oil markets. To be more specific, we consider the main uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen and their impact on financial markets – as measured by the volatility of their risks and returns. In sum, we cluster 53 stock markets into 6 regions; namely, developed, developing, MENA, Asia, Europe, and Latin America countries, and use T-GARCH to assess the reaction of these regions to each uprising event independently. In addition, we use GARCH-M to assess the reaction of these regions stock markets as well as Gold and Oil markets to the uprisings of MENA as a whole. Our empirical findings suggest that the uprising events of MENA have more impact on the volatility of risks and returns of developed, developing, and Europe regions than MENA itself. In addition, although the results show that the volatility of both risks and returns of both developed and MENA regions are significantly affected by general conflicts in MENA, the volatility of MENA is affected during all intervals and with higher significance level. Furthermore, while MENA uprisings as a whole impact on the volatility of risk of oil (after 5 days) and gold (immediately after entering news) significantly, the returns of these markets are not affected by conflicts.

This paper examines how the level and volatility of interest rates affect the stock return of banks using a GARCH-M model. Data is collected for Swedish and Danish banks stock return and interest rates on monthly basis for the period January 2000 to April 2018. The effects of interest rates on banks stock return is tested by two hypotheses, if the volatility of interest rates affects the volatility of the stock returns and if the level of the interest rate affects the excess return. The excess returns are also tested for significance of its own conditional variance in form of the mean term in the GARCH-M model. The results show that the volatility of interest rates has a significant effect on the excess return of the bank stocks while the level of the interest rate does not have a significant effect, the mean term is not significant, implying that some of the risk is not priced by an increased risk premium. The paper also discusses how the quantitative easing activities that has been performed by central banks could affect the bank stocks sensitivity to interest rates changes.

資產報酬的波動程度隱含風險與不確定性，不同的投資者存在不同之風險偏好與風險承受能力，因此瞭解報酬波動之特性有其必要性；又鑑於過去不動產市場對於商用與住宅不動產兩次市場之相關研究較欠缺。因此本研究擬分別探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異，並檢視其風險與報酬間之關係。此外，總體經濟環境之變動會影響不動產市場供需關係，進而影響其價格與報酬之波動，因此本研究最後再進一步討論影響其市場報酬之總體經濟因素。 為捕捉不動產市場報酬之波動特性，本研究擬透過GARCH模型分別檢驗商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異；進而應用GARCH-M模型，探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬與風險之關係；最後透過落遲分配模型實證比較分析顯著影響商用與住宅不動產市場報酬之總體經濟因素。樣本取自台北地區，資料期間為1997年2月至2009年3月之月資料。 實證結果顯示，商用不動產市場中投資人較容易透過自身過去的報酬波動推測未來的波動，反觀住宅不動產市場部分，投資人則傾向注意整體市場消息的散佈，因為其較容易受到外在因素影響而導致報酬波動；由GARCH-M模型實證結果顯示，住宅與商用不動產市場報酬與風險間均呈現顯著正相關，顯示其市場波動風險增加時期，會提供更高之報酬以均衡投資者所面對之較高市場波動風險；由落遲分配模型實證結果顯示，商用與住宅不動產市場報酬確實和總經變數之間有著程度不同的關聯性，所有當期總經變數與不動產報酬間均不存在顯著影響關係，顯示各總經變數對不動產報酬的影響存在時間落差。此外，總經變數對商用報酬的影響程度相對大於對住宅報酬的影響，且總體經濟環境變動對於商用不動產市場報酬之衝擊相對較為迅速。 / This research plans to study the relative volatility characteristic of commercial and residential property returns. In addition, the changing real estate environment can be linked to the macro economy, so we further discusses the relationship between property returns and the macro economy. In order to catch the volatility characteristic of real estate returns, we use GARCH model to examine the volatile behavior of real estate returns of commercial and residential property in the Taipei area during the period of February 1997 to March 2009, and because risk is time-varying in the market, we continue to employ GARCH-M model to observe whether can explain the change in expected returns of commercial and residential property. Furthermore, we use distributed-lag model to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and real estate returns. The major findings of this article can be summarized as follows. First, it is easier for investors to infer the future fluctuation through oneself returns in the past in the commercial real estate market, but part on the residential real estate market, the volatility of residential property returns is influenced by external factor more easily. Second, our empirical applications in both commercial and residential real estate markets show that the risk is positively correlated with both property returns and high risk can bring high return. Third, there are different relations of intensity between real estate returns and macroeconomic factors and the impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate returns exist time-lag. In addition, macroeconomic factors’ impact on commercial returns is relatively great, and the environmental change takes place to the impact of the commercial property returns comparatively fast.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudio Alan de Melo Barbosa.pdf: 683323 bytes, checksum: 3c62dfb6f8485d96f9af6530abda3312 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-06-17 / O Modelo de Precificação de Ativos Financeiros (CAPM) compara ou correlaciona os retornos da ação individual com os retornos de mercado pelo índice de risco chamado Beta. O mercado é um padrão ou denominador comum para a obtenção do que é conhecido como risco não diversificável, também chamado, de risco sistêmico. De forma que foi realizado um estudo comparativo entre dois tipos de precificação de ativos, CAPM tradicional e CAPM condicional, sendo que, este último utiliza o modelo GARCH-M, capaz de incorporar a variância condicional em sua estimação. O mercado financeiro brasileiro, no decorrer dos últimos anos, foi palco de um grande crescimento e consolidação do Brasil perante a comunidade nacional e internacional. Diante disso, a Bovespa, na tentativa de tornar a prática de investimento em ações mais ao alcance da população brasileira regulamentou os Clubes de Investimento, proporcionando a entrada de investidores de pequeno porte, porém estes, unidos em clubes, acabam por se tornarem investidores de grande potencial; e o clube de investimento AIVALE, foi um dos quais em pouco tempo de criação apresentou um grande ganho em seu patrimônio. Foi possível estudar o comportamento de sua variância, e determinar o seu Beta baseado no melhor modelo / The Model for Pricing of Financial Assets CAPM compares or correlates the returns of individual action with the returns of the market by risk index called Beta. The market is a pattern or common denominator to obtain what is known as risk not diverse, also called of systemic risk. So that was a comparative study between two types of pricing of assets, traditional CAPM and conditional CAPM, whereas the latter uses the GARCH-M model, able to incorporate the conditional variance in its estimation. The Brazilian financial market over the past years, was the scene of a major growth and consolidation of Brazil at the national and international community. Thus, the BOVESPA, in an attempt to make the practice of investing in more stock to reach the population regulated investment clubs, allowing the entry of small investors, but these, together in clubs, eventually become investors in great potential, and investment club AIVALE, one of which was soon made to create a large gain in its assets. It was possible to study the behavior of its variance, and determine the best model based on the Beta

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudio Alan de Melo Barbosa.pdf: 683323 bytes, checksum: 3c62dfb6f8485d96f9af6530abda3312 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-06-17 / The Model for Pricing of Financial Assets CAPM compares or correlates the returns of individual action with the returns of the market by risk index called Beta. The market is a pattern or common denominator to obtain what is known as risk not diverse, also called of systemic risk. So that was a comparative study between two types of pricing of assets, traditional CAPM and conditional CAPM, whereas the latter uses the GARCH-M model, able to incorporate the conditional variance in its estimation. The Brazilian financial market over the past years, was the scene of a major growth and consolidation of Brazil at the national and international community. Thus, the BOVESPA, in an attempt to make the practice of investing in more stock to reach the population regulated investment clubs, allowing the entry of small investors, but these, together in clubs, eventually become investors in great potential, and investment club AIVALE, one of which was soon made to create a large gain in its assets. It was possible to study the behavior of its variance, and determine the best model based on the Beta / O Modelo de Precificação de Ativos Financeiros (CAPM) compara ou correlaciona os retornos da ação individual com os retornos de mercado pelo índice de risco chamado Beta. O mercado é um padrão ou denominador comum para a obtenção do que é conhecido como risco não diversificável, também chamado, de risco sistêmico. De forma que foi realizado um estudo comparativo entre dois tipos de precificação de ativos, CAPM tradicional e CAPM condicional, sendo que, este último utiliza o modelo GARCH-M, capaz de incorporar a variância condicional em sua estimação. O mercado financeiro brasileiro, no decorrer dos últimos anos, foi palco de um grande crescimento e consolidação do Brasil perante a comunidade nacional e internacional. Diante disso, a Bovespa, na tentativa de tornar a prática de investimento em ações mais ao alcance da população brasileira regulamentou os Clubes de Investimento, proporcionando a entrada de investidores de pequeno porte, porém estes, unidos em clubes, acabam por se tornarem investidores de grande potencial; e o clube de investimento AIVALE, foi um dos quais em pouco tempo de criação apresentou um grande ganho em seu patrimônio. Foi possível estudar o comportamento de sua variância, e determinar o seu Beta baseado no melhor modelo

Este trabalho analisa e modela a Estrutura a Termo das Taxas de Juros objetivando ao teste da Hipótese das Expectativas(HE) na ponta curta da curva de juros e a uma aplicação da teoria de Markowitz (1952) no mercado de renda fixa utilizando a estrutura proposta por Caldeira, Moura e Santos (2015). Para estes fins foram utilizados dados dos contratos futuros de 1 dia dos depósito interbancários (DI1) negociados na BMF interpolados em maturidades fixas, sendo utilizados em base semanal quando do teste da HE e em base diária para a construção dos portfólios de mínima variância. Os resultados encontrados para o teste da HE sugerem a invalidade da teoria, uma vez que o prêmio de risco é se mostra ajustável a um modelo GARCH-M e, portanto, variante no tempo. Os portfólios de mínima variância ajustados nas versões irrestrita e restrita (duration máxima de 1 ano) se mostraram consistentes, tendo superado quase a totalidade dos fundos analisados. O portfólio de mínima variância irrestrito obteve o maior Índice de Sharpe no período analisado. / This work analyzes and model the Term Structure of Interest Rates seeking testing Expectation Hypothesis in the short end of the Yield Curve and to apply the portfolio theory to the fixed income context using the framework proposed by Caldeira, Moura e Santos (2015). We used a database of constant maturities interbank deposits’s future contracts. The results suggest Expectation Hypothesis doesn’t hold and risk premium could be modeled by a GARCH-M framework, being time variant. The bond portfolio optimized were, in general, consistent with high sharpe ratio relative to other funds and beated the chosen benchmark during the period analyzed.

台北房市自2003年的SARS低點過後逐漸回暖，並在2006年開始房價出現劇烈的漲幅，在決定房屋供給與需求的基本面未大幅變化的前提下，多數學者質疑台北的房價已呈現泡沫化，購屋的負擔已超過多數受薪家庭的支付能力。本文首先擬以購屋成本及投資報酬率的角度分析台北房市泡沫化的幅度，實證結果指出台北市的房價在1990年代及2006年後明顯出現泡沫化的現象，所得及租金推估的泡沫分別達到三成及六成的幅度，且2006年後的房價泡沫至今仍未有破裂跡象。在此一結論下，本文進一步分析生成台北房價泡沫的原因，實證結果指出房價出現泡沫化的同時，與股市報酬率及貴金屬報酬率明顯呈現正相關，貨幣供給增加亦是促成泡沫化的因素。 此外，對於房地產學界一直關注的議題，即房地產景氣預測及房地產價格的推估，本文亦利用貝式分析的技巧適度修補了現階段實證研究遭遇的困難。對房地產景氣的推估而言，加入事前訊息後的馬可夫轉換模型，在掌握房地產景氣擴短縮長的特性有顯著的改善，同時樣本外的預測亦說明其優越之處。在房地產估價方面，貝式多層次模型在面對較少樣本下的估價亦展現優越之處，特別是房價波動較大的期間，在不同樣本數目下，貝式多層式估計的精確度皆明顯優於傳統的特徵價格估計法。

Este trabalho analisa e modela a Estrutura a Termo das Taxas de Juros objetivando ao teste da Hipótese das Expectativas(HE) na ponta curta da curva de juros e a uma aplicação da teoria de Markowitz (1952) no mercado de renda fixa utilizando a estrutura proposta por Caldeira, Moura e Santos (2015). Para estes fins foram utilizados dados dos contratos futuros de 1 dia dos depósito interbancários (DI1) negociados na BMF interpolados em maturidades fixas, sendo utilizados em base semanal quando do teste da HE e em base diária para a construção dos portfólios de mínima variância. Os resultados encontrados para o teste da HE sugerem a invalidade da teoria, uma vez que o prêmio de risco é se mostra ajustável a um modelo GARCH-M e, portanto, variante no tempo. Os portfólios de mínima variância ajustados nas versões irrestrita e restrita (duration máxima de 1 ano) se mostraram consistentes, tendo superado quase a totalidade dos fundos analisados. O portfólio de mínima variância irrestrito obteve o maior Índice de Sharpe no período analisado. / This work analyzes and model the Term Structure of Interest Rates seeking testing Expectation Hypothesis in the short end of the Yield Curve and to apply the portfolio theory to the fixed income context using the framework proposed by Caldeira, Moura e Santos (2015). We used a database of constant maturities interbank deposits’s future contracts. The results suggest Expectation Hypothesis doesn’t hold and risk premium could be modeled by a GARCH-M framework, being time variant. The bond portfolio optimized were, in general, consistent with high sharpe ratio relative to other funds and beated the chosen benchmark during the period analyzed.